Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-messages-insight-idUSKCN12R0YA

Here is an article with a fair analysis of how Theresa May's mixed messages has completely undermined the Uks relationship with the EU.
It appears the PM rang around the EU leaders with a very concilatory tone and message on Brexit hours before her possessed Tory conference hard brexit speech.

This backfired badly with European leaders outlining the real consequences of the hard Brexit she painted. Apparently British diplomats are completely in the dark and powerless to ease tensions because all of Mays inner advisors are revealing nothing. The cabinet appears to be split adding to the disorientation.

May is trying to say that the British Eurosceptic press (bad mouthing Europeans and accusing them of causing the standoff) is not her opinion but she is doing nothing to clarify this.

Anyone can see from any discussions that the British side are happy to let their own public think that the EU are at fault for the standoff.

Europe does't want an expensive Brexit but the British sides amateurish and foolish behaviour is making this more likely.

did it backfire, or was it part of the plan?

steddyeddy

HellSquirrel wrote: »

I don't know why anyone would have wanted the job as PM after the Brexit vote. No matter how it goes, bar the sudden collapse of the EU, s/he would get the blame for anything that happened.

To Brexit? Hated by all the Remainers, plus a chunk of regretful Leave voters, plus pissing off the EU top people and then trying to get a good deal out of them for the UK. And getting the blame for probable years of dodgy markets and the sterling tanking. Because this was a totally unforeseen result that wasn't warned about by all those "experts" that people have no time for nowadays. If she succeeds by some miracle in getting the UK through the worst of it and it starts to prosper, Farage and the bash street kids will be out of the woodwork saying that any good resulting was all down to them and aren't they wonderful, please vote us in now that the hard bit is done so we can keep Making Britain Great Again.

Against Brexit? Hated by all the Leave voters, plus a few Remainers that reckon the people have spoken, plus riots.

I have no respect for the people like Johnson, Gove and Farage who ran for the hills once they realised what they'd done (although Gove got a knife in the back, to be very mildly fair to him). I get the impression that Cameron was a bit backed into a corner about calling the referendum, didn't really want it, and didn't support it, but there was enough noise about it that he took the gamble and lost.

Wouldn't like to be in May's position at all.

I don't get why Cameron was blamed. The people wanted a referendum and he gave it to them. He begged people to vote remain and they didn't. It's not his fault.

Blame Boris. A man who was described accurately on Question Time by the former Greek finance minister of being of very low IQ.

steddyeddy

Fratton Fred wrote: »

did it backfire, or was it part of the plan?

It isn't as much May as Farage. He's still in the EU patliment berating the EU and demanding a great trade deal.

MrPudding

Fratton Fred wrote: »

did it backfire, or was it part of the plan?

As I have pointed out before, sometimes the appearance of incompetence is simply down to incompetence, and not some cunning plan.

We have seen nothing from May, or the post-referendum government that would suggest anything other than incompetence.

MrP

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

the "Experts" as you call them, made predictions of financial doom and gloom and all of this was written off as "Project Fear".

Yes, that was because Cameroon lied and said he would be invoking article 50 immediately. It hasn't been invoked yet incase you haven't noticed, never mind Brexit not happening.

What are the indicators so far?

Sterling has tanked and threatens to fall off a cliff every time hard Brexit is mentioned.
GDP hasn't slowed as much as forecast due to a lot of big movie releases driving the services sector apparently. The real economic indicators are down: Agriculture, Construction and crucially Manufacturing.
The Nissan plant will build new models in the plant. We dont know the price the UK government payed for this.
Current investment can't be predicted but if a manufacturer needs a big bribe just to stay in a State, how many will be cutting back and what sensible manufacturer would move into such a State?
Investment is in tumbleweed territory.
Inflation is rising as Britian imports so much so the ordinary punter will have less to spend going forward.

Al of this before article 50 has even been invoked!

A French politician described it best: Brexiters are like that cartoon character who has run off a cliff but doesn't realise it yet. When they look down they will fall.

steddyeddy

MrPudding wrote: »

As I have pointed out before, sometimes the appearance of incompetence is simply down to incompetence, and not some cunning plan.

We have seen nothing from May, or the post-referendum government that would suggest anything other than incompetence.

MrP

It's Boris that gets me. My boss works with politicians in the Royal Society of science and often meets Boris' brother. Once or twice he's met Boris and described him as thick as too planks. For some reason people seem to think "oh no Boris couldn't really be that stupid, it's all an act". Why exactly is it an act?

Fratton Fred

MrPudding wrote: »

As I have pointed out before, sometimes the appearance of incompetence is simply down to incompetence, and not some cunning plan.

We have seen nothing from May, or the post-referendum government that would suggest anything other than incompetence.

MrP

would you say all of this tough talk has created more or less pro Brexit sentiment?

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

Yes, that was because Cameroon lied and said he would be invoking article 50 immediately. It hasn't been invoked yet incase you haven't noticed, never mind Brexit not happening.

What are the indicators so far?

Sterling has tanked and threatens to fall off a cliff every time hard Brexit is mentioned.
GDP hasn't slowed as much as forecast due to a lot of big movie releases driving the services sector apparently. The real economic indicators are down: Agriculture, Construction and crucially Manufacturing.
The Nissan plant will build new models in the plant. We dont know the price the UK government payed for this.
Current investment can't be predicted but if a manufacturer needs a big bribe just to stay in a State, how many will be cutting back and what sensible manufacturer would move into such a State?
Investment is in tumbleweed territory.
Inflation is rising as Britian imports so much so the ordinary punter will have less to spend going forward.

Al of this before article 50 has even been invoked!

A French politician described it best: Brexiters are like that cartoon character who has run off a cliff but doesn't realise it yet. When they look down they will fall.

I was referring to the Scottish referendum

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

did it backfire, or was it part of the plan?

The plan to mislead and alienate her EU peers, spook the market and divide her cabinet? That plan?

ambro25

Fratton Fred wrote: »

would you say all of this tough talk has created more or less pro Brexit sentiment?

More amongst the die hard Leavers, less amongst the rest.

The recent by-election voting profile in Witney, one of the Tories ' safest seats (Cameron's), which saw a huge drop in the Tories' majority and the only outrightly-pro-EU party, the LibDems, making the biggest gains at their and Labour's expense, shows as much. linkie

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

the "Experts" as you call them, made predictions of financial doom and gloom and all of this was written off as "Project Fear".

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I was referring to the Scottish referendum

Your posts are bordering on trolling now.

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

Your posts are bordering on trolling now.

seriously, you need to step away from the debate.

Actually, no. Put meon ignore like you have everyone else who disagrees with you.

beach_walker

demfad wrote: »

Your posts are bordering on trolling now.

You don't see the similarities between the Indy campaign of 2014 and the Brexit campaign?

And 'Project Fear' was well in use as a term by the Yes side. Alex Salmond used it in the first tv debate

Fratton Fred

ambro25 wrote: »

More amongst the die hard Leavers, less amongst the rest.

The recent by-election voting profile in Witney, one of the Tories ' safest seats (Cameron's), which saw a huge drop in the Tories' majority and the only outrightly-pro-EU party, the LibDems, making the biggest gains at their and Labour's expense, shows as much. linkie

The die hard leavers are probably in a minority now, so it is getting interesting.

Theresa May, may well be gambling on enough pro remain support to call a general election and run on the basis that she will not invoke article 50 and call another referendum.

Incredibly ballsy move if she does, but stranger things have happened.

Her own seat could be in jeopardy though, as she has given the go ahead for Heathrow expansion, against the wishes of the local council on her constituency.

catbear

I would blame Cameron for one thing and thats leaving the EU table before he was replaced. It registered the UK governments intent to honour the brexit vote and gave them no latitude to discuss sub EU relations with the group whilst still a member.

the EU train had left the station by the time May was installed.

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

seriously, you need to step away from the debate.

Actually, no. Put meon ignore like you have everyone else who disagrees with you.

You claim I have put everyone who disagrees with me on ignore? Can you substantiate that?

You are being dishonest, which incidentally would be my main issue with your 'debating'.

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

You claim I have put everyone who disagrees with me on ignore? Can you substantiate that?

You are being dishonest, which incidentally would be my main issue with your 'debating'.

Apologies, it is Catbear. Although in my defence, it is hard to tell the difference.

now then, maybe you can show where I have been dishonest.

Thank you.

ambro25

Fratton Fred wrote: »

ambro25 wrote: »

More amongst the die hard Leavers, less amongst the rest.

The recent by-election voting profile in Witney, one of the Tories ' safest seats (Cameron's), which saw a huge drop in the Tories' majority and the only outrightly-pro-EU party, the LibDems, making the biggest gains at their and Labour's expense, shows as much. linkie

The die hard leavers are probably in a minority now, so it is getting interesting.

Theresa May, may well be gambling on enough pro remain support to call a general election and run on the basis that she will not invoke article 50 and call another referendum.

Incredibly ballsy move if she does, but stranger things have happened.

Her own seat could be in jeopardy though, as she has given the go ahead for Heathrow expansion, against the wishes of the local council on her constituency.

Though I'd buy that as a punt...would she really sacrifice her career a la Salmond for the short- to medium-term best interests of the country?

I just can't see it.

She doesn't strike me as having the requisite degree of integrity and abnegation, I'm afraid. Too coldly opportunistic and calculating.

"May you live in interesting times"...said the ancient Chinese curse

catbear

Finally some news to set sterling off again. That was a long week.

Northern Ireland's High Court on Friday ruled that the law of the province did not restrict the British prime minister's ability to trigger an exit from the European Union, and that the consent of the regional parliament was not required.

But it said that it would defer to English courts on the wider issue of whether Prime Minister Theresa May and her ministers have the authority to invoke Article 50 of the EU Lisbon Treaty, the mechanism by which a nation can leave the bloc, without the explicit backing of the British parliament.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nireland-idUKKCN12S11U

That's one potential obstacle discounted.

"The UK Parliament has retained to itself the ability to legislate for NI without the need to resort to any special procedure," he said.

I do wonder if the GFA will provide some special provisions after Brexit as the cross border institutions will then be UK/EU institutions.

A Little Pony

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37796836

Think the moaners should give up the ghost.

steddyeddy

The BBC reports that British politician Arlene Foster acts in a surprising way by reacting to anything Irish in the negative.

Christopher Hitchen's used to say there's an element of the British government that treats the Republic of Ireland as separate to Northern Ireland as Bogota is. A bigoted imperialistic attitude that's alive and well in Brits like Foster. She referred to the Irish government as remoaners. We haven't had a referendum Arlene.

I'll make my views clear on people like this. Unionists have fecked up the North part of the Ireland for a while now. Arlene needs to remember that nearly 40% of NI's exports go to the rep. The Irish government offered a constructive all island talk on how to handle trade and the rest post Brexit. Arlene, hating all things Irish and belonging to the imperial tradition that all things Northern Ireland have nothing to do with the republic, rejected them.

Now I'll make myself clear in case people are thinking I'm hinting at something rather than spelling it out. I hope the people who voted for people like Arlene get significantly poorer post brexit and find life very difficult. Arlene rejected economics based on hate and if you voted for that a good dose of economic reality would suit you.

Northern Ireland First Minister Arlene Foster has criticised the Irish government's all-island forum on Brexit.
Mrs Foster described it as a "grandstanding exercise" and said she had better things to do than be a "lone voice among remoaners".
She has already declined an invite to attend next week's "civic dialogue" event in Dublin.
The forum was established in the wake of the EU referendum result.
"It's a complete grandstanding exercise," said Mrs Foster.
"It will be full of people who quite frankly haven't accepted the referendum result going down to talk about how dreadful it is and how awful it is.
"Mark my words that's exactly what will happen at the grandstanding forum that will come about.
"I'm not going to be a part of that. I am in this to do real business and to have outcomes, not to sit around talking about how dreadful it is."
Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny has said the event will facilitate an all-Ireland conversation among the business community, wider civic society and politicians.
Asked if it would be valuable to put the argument in favour of Brexit to forum delegates, Mrs Foster replied: "To be a lone voice amongst a whole lot of remoaners?
"No thank you - I have better things to do with my time."

steddyeddy

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The die hard leavers are probably in a minority now, so it is getting interesting.

Theresa May, may well be gambling on enough pro remain support to call a general election and run on the basis that she will not invoke article 50 and call another referendum.

Incredibly ballsy move if she does, but stranger things have happened.

Her own seat could be in jeopardy though, as she has given the go ahead for Heathrow expansion, against the wishes of the local council on her constituency.

The Labour party also need to get in gear now. There's no effective opposition party at the moment. An effective opposition is good for all members of government.

Grayson

Apple have upped the sterling prices because of brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/28/brexit-apple-mac-customers-prices-rise-us-dollar-pound-sterling

If you’re a Mac user, everything just got a lot more expensive. Apple used the cover of introducing three new MacBook Pros at its latest event to quietly raise the prices of every single computer in its line.

It’s the latest example of the Brexit effect, with prices updated to account for the new low exchange rate between the US dollar and pound sterling. While the new laptops introduced on 27 October are significantly more expensive than the ones they are replacing, even machines that have seen no change at all have had their prices raised, in some cases by many hundreds of pounds.

catbear

steddyeddy wrote: »

Christopher Hitchen's used to say there's an element of the British government that treats the Republic of Ireland as separate to Northern Ireland as Bogota is. A bigoted imperialistic attitude that's alive and well in Brits like Foster. She referred to the Irish government as remoaners. We haven't had a referendum Arlene.

The ironic thing is outside of the EU Northern Ireland will come into greater focus for the UK populous who up to now were happy to forget about their remnant of colonialism.

steddyeddy

catbear wrote: »

The ironic thing is outside of the EU Northern Ireland will come into greater focus for the UK populous who up to now were happy to forget about their remnant of colonialism.

NI politicians being idiots about the economy will result in NI's economy going down the pan. The UK will have to replace the EU peace subsidies and the farming subsidies to NI as well as subsidise the economy in general. Best thing for the British at this stage. They wanted it.

Fratton Fred

ambro25 wrote: »

Though I'd buy that as a punt...would she really sacrifice her career a la Salmond for the short- to medium-term best interests of the country?

I just can't see it.

She doesn't strike me as having the requisite degree of integrity and abnegation, I'm afraid. Too coldly opportunistic and calculating.

"May you live in interesting times"...said the ancient Chinese curse

She is a tough cookie. There's more than just a simple election as well, it would need a 2/3 majority, or a vote of no confidence to call an election before 2020.

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Apologies, it is Catbear. Although in my defence, it is hard to tell the difference.

now then, maybe you can show where I have been dishonest.

Thank you.

You were dishonest to claim that I ignore users I disagree with. When you are called out you are dishonest to pretend it is due to a mistaken identity.
Please debate with integrity and stop wasting people's time with attempted antagonism and deliberate misrepresentation. Moving on?

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

You were dishonest to claim that I ignore users I disagree with. When you are called out you are dishonest to pretend it is due to a mistaken identity.
Please debate with integrity and stop wasting people's time with attempted antagonism and deliberate misrepresentation. Moving on?

I made a mistake, I put my hands up to it.

You accused me of debating dishonestly, please clarify.

catbear

steddyeddy wrote: »

NI politicians being idiots about the economy will result in NI's economy going down the pan. The UK will have to replace the EU peace subsidies and the farming subsidies to NI as well as subsidise the economy in general. Best thing for the British at this stage. They wanted it.

I coming to the opinion that there there may an economic reunification of sorts before there's a political solution. I envisage more businesses straddling the border for NI workers with Irish passports. That will pull the economic power from the northeast of Ulster, the traditional unionist powerbase.

A Little Pony

steddyeddy wrote: »

The BBC reports that British politician Arlene Foster acts in a surprising way by reacting to anything Irish in the negative.

Christopher Hitchen's used to say there's an element of the British government that treats the Republic of Ireland as separate to Northern Ireland as Bogota is. A bigoted imperialistic attitude that's alive and well in Brits like Foster. She referred to the Irish government as remoaners. We haven't had a referendum Arlene.

I'll make my views clear on people like this. Unionists have fecked up the North part of the Ireland for a while now. Arlene needs to remember that nearly 40% of NI's exports go to the rep. The Irish government offered a constructive all island talk on how to handle trade and the rest post Brexit. Arlene, hating all things Irish and belonging to the imperial tradition that all things Northern Ireland have nothing to do with the republic, rejected them.

Now I'll make myself clear in case people are thinking I'm hinting at something rather than spelling it out. I hope the people who voted for people like Arlene get significantly poorer post brexit and find life very difficult. Arlene rejected economics based on hate and if you voted for that a good dose of economic reality would suit you.

Northern Ireland First Minister Arlene Foster has criticised the Irish government's all-island forum on Brexit.
Mrs Foster described it as a "grandstanding exercise" and said she had better things to do than be a "lone voice among remoaners".
She has already declined an invite to attend next week's "civic dialogue" event in Dublin.
The forum was established in the wake of the EU referendum result.
"It's a complete grandstanding exercise," said Mrs Foster.
"It will be full of people who quite frankly haven't accepted the referendum result going down to talk about how dreadful it is and how awful it is.
"Mark my words that's exactly what will happen at the grandstanding forum that will come about.
"I'm not going to be a part of that. I am in this to do real business and to have outcomes, not to sit around talking about how dreadful it is."
Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny has said the event will facilitate an all-Ireland conversation among the business community, wider civic society and politicians.
Asked if it would be valuable to put the argument in favour of Brexit to forum delegates, Mrs Foster replied: "To be a lone voice amongst a whole lot of remoaners?
"No thank you - I have better things to do with my time."

Can't say I disagree with her. Let the moaners go down South to moan about it in some poxy political forum.