Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

Peregrinus

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

What makes you say that?

Canada and the US have a free trade deal, what is special about the UK that precludes it specifically from a mutually beneficial free trade deal?

There's nothing about the UK that precludes a mutually beneficial trade deal between the UK and the US. What precludes such a deal is Donald Trump, who basically doesn't believe that a good deal is mutually beneficial. He's quite open about the fact that a good deal is one that enables the you to screw the other guy.

steddyeddy

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

What makes you say that?

Canada and the US have a free trade deal, what is special about the UK that precludes it specifically from a mutually beneficial free trade deal?

Because Trump recently criticised Canada's free trade deal and appointed someone anti free trade.

Fratton Fred

catbear wrote: »

Why do people expect the world to realign in the UKs favour after Brexit? It's not like Britain was being charitable when it was asset stripping the world during its empire days. that hasn't been forgotten by the nations to who the UK now looks to for favour.

First Up wrote: »

Absolutely. They are hoping old colonial ties will stand to them but business is business.

First Up wrote: »

Ah sure god love them.

The above three posts just about sum up this thread "blah blah blah Da Brits" "blah Blah blah empire".

First Up wrote: »

I wonder what you mean by "access"?

The US is currently the UK's largest single export market and benefits from the relatively low tarrifs between the EU and US. When (if) the TTIP is concluded, tarrifs in both directions will be lower still.

can I just clarify this bit. Are you saying that it is of vital importance to an economy to have easy and tariff free access to its largest export markets?

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

can I just clarify this bit. Are you saying that it is of vital importance to an economy to have easy and tariff free access to its largest export markets?

Always happy to clarify things for you Fred.

I'm saying it helps to be able to trade on equal or better terms as your competitors.

steddyeddy

Britain's former ambassador to the EU, Ivor Rogers warns the UK on trade deals.

He also says free trade deals don't happen.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britains-top-brussels-diplomat-quits-and-warns-liam-fox-free-trade-does-not-just-happen-a7508501.html

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

Always happy to clarify things for you Fred.

I'm saying it helps to be able to trade on equal or better terms as your competitors.

so the eu will want better terms with their biggest export partner than the US?

jmayo

steddyeddy wrote: »

He quit. He wasn't sacked. This makes negotiations a lot harder.

Reminds me of the some of the wording of the exit of football managers.

end of the road wrote: »

you mean in a minority. it was a majority of minority that voted to leave. this chap is not a traitor.
...

Ahh the old when is a majority not a majority.
As in the result doesn't turn out the way I wanted. :rolleyes:

RobertKK wrote: »

Brexit is such a farce.

Nigel Farage happy over today's events when it is bad for the UK. Hard Brexit is on the cards which is not good for the UK. It might be bad in one way for Ireland but good in other ways.

Actually I don't see many upsides for Ireland.
A hard border screws up things for us.
A lot of Irish people work and do business with and in UK.
Telling them about markets in China or Far East is like telling a shopper in Castlebar they can get new deal in Killarney.

We might lure in a few more FDI jobs, but on the other hand our indigenous industries like agri sector and small SMEs can be decimated.

Note I said indigenous as in OUR OWN, not some jobs here because we offer lax tax system, double Dutch facilities or because we offer better deal than some other countries when they were siting in EU.

I think we can forget ideas that The City is going to up sticks to IFSC.
Dublin is not that attractive, hell we don't even have the accommodation at the moment for all those high flyers.

end of the road wrote: »

a united ireland is going to happen, it's a case of when and not if. not long now and the dream will be realised.

I love how some people of a certain political persuasion just assume that once Catholics outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland then a United Ireland is a given.

Who says the majority of people in Republic of Ireland actually want any of the ones from the North and their associated high costs, like paying for added security or heating unused barns.

Or maybe it would be one of those times when a majority of minority actually counts :rolleyes:

First Up wrote: »

To return the country to an imagined past.

As in United Ireland under Brian Boru.

Fratton Fred

steddyeddy wrote: »

Britain's former ambassador to the EU, Ivor Rogers warns the UK on trade deals.

He also says free trade deals don't happen.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britains-top-brussels-diplomat-quits-and-warns-liam-fox-free-trade-does-not-just-happen-a7508501.html

it looks like the penny is dropping with Irish politicians as well, that a hard Brexit could be disastrous for Ireland.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-officials-make-case-to-brussels-to-secure-common-travel-1.2924859

Professor Moriarty

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it looks like the penny is dropping with Irish politicians as well, that a hard Brexit could be disastrous for Ireland.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-officials-make-case-to-brussels-to-secure-common-travel-1.2924859

Which is why we should (and are) working towards a post-Brexit scenario where we are more closely aligned with the EU and less aligned with the UK. It should be noted that only 16% of our exports go to Britain while 36% of our imports are from Britain. Neither of these figures will drop to 0% no matter how hard the Brexit.

However painful it may be for Ireland, we should emerge as much more integrated into an extremely large trading block and less dependent on an insular neighbour that is busily fragmenting and led by a self-serving elite. It will be difficult for Ireland but much more difficult for Britain and in this context England's economic misfortune is Ireland's opportunity

FrancieBrady

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it looks like the penny is dropping with Irish politicians as well, that a hard Brexit could be disastrous for Ireland.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-officials-make-case-to-brussels-to-secure-common-travel-1.2924859

What?

That has been a fear since the get go.

That article is about them realising that a 'hard brexit' is more likely now.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote: »

so the eu will want better terms with their biggest export partner than the US?

The EU looks to get the best terms possible for its members with all trading partners. So does everyone.

First Up

jmayo wrote:

Actually I don't see many upsides for Ireland.

There are few upsides for anyone in Brexit - including the UK. It is a regressive step and all anyone can do is exploit the opportunities and minimise the damage.

The threats and opportunities for Ireland are pretty obvious.

Fratton Fred

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What?

That has been a fear since the get go.

That article is about them realising that a 'hard brexit' is more likely now.

Really, all I've heard is that the the banking world is moving to Dublin

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

The EU looks to get the best terms possible for its members with all trading partners. So does everyone.

So it is in the eu's interests to negotiate a good deal with the UK.

FrancieBrady

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Really, all I've heard is that the the banking world is moving to Dublin

Quickly plucked from google, a place you should familiarise yourself with if you have trouble hearing.

The implications of a hard brexit are well known, to any sensible people in EU including Irish politicians.
Ridiculous assertion again from you Fred.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/16/irish-pm-calls-brexit-summit-to-confront-looming-crisis

Fratton Fred

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Quickly plucked from google, a place you should familiarise yourself with if you have trouble hearing.

The implications of a hard brexit are well known, to any sensible people in EU including Irish politicians.
Ridiculous assertion again from you Fred.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/16/irish-pm-calls-brexit-summit-to-confront-looming-crisis

So all this talk of exploiting Brexit and it being a good opportunity for Ireland are false then?

Christy42

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So all this talk of exploiting Brexit and it being a good opportunity for Ireland are false then?

You are dodging. There is plenty of opportunity for Ireland in a hard Brexit but the negatives outweigh the positives. That much has been obvious from day one and haven't seen it contradicted much at all.

Fratton Fred

Christy42 wrote: »

You are dodging. There is plenty of opportunity for Ireland in a hard Brexit but the negatives outweigh the positives. That much has been obvious from day one and haven't seen it contradicted much at all.

What am I dodging?

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

So it is in the eu's interests to negotiate a good deal with the UK.

As good a deal as they can for the EU - yes. However it is going to fall some distance short of when the UK was part of the single market.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

Really, all I've heard is that the the banking world is moving to Dublin

Where did you hear that?

Christy42

Fratton Fred wrote: »

What am I dodging?

Possibly the wrong word but you started a false equivalence between there being opportunities for Ireland in a hard Brexit and a hard Brexit being good for Ireland.

People have spent ages saying that there are opportunities but not that this is a good thing overall

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

So all this talk of exploiting Brexit and it being a good opportunity for Ireland are false then?

Of course there is opportunity for Ireland. How big an opportunity remains to be seen - the potential will be clearer when the terms of Brexit are known.

FrancieBrady

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So all this talk of exploiting Brexit and it being a good opportunity for Ireland are false then?

We have to exploit the idiocy of a neighbour, but that doesn't get away from the fact that everyone is aware of the damage a hard brexit will do.

You were wrong, why can you never just admit it? :rolleyes:

Knasher

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So it is in the eu's interests to negotiate a good deal with the UK.

There are a lot of other factors to be taken into account that wouldn't apply to other nations making a trade deal. There is an undeniable desire to see that the UK doesn't profit from brexit, so a "good" deal from the EU's perspective is probably one which will still see the UK being visibly worse off economically. And lets not forget the time sensitive nature of the UK's negotiating position giving them a much poorer negotiating position.

Putting aside the political realities though, there is also the fact that the UK markets are simply worth less now. Agriculture will probably be the most obvious example of this; one of the criticisms of the leave side was that the EU imposed a lot of regulations, coming from an agricultural background I can certainly see the truth of this, even if I tend not to disagree with the regulations themselves. If the UK doesn't need to follow these regulations any more, then that will put Irish farms at a competitive disadvantage to UK farms. Even more so as the UK becomes a "trading nation" and opens up its markets to the lower agricultural standards that exist in the US, for example. Meaning that the UK market is dramatically less valuable to the EU, than it once was. A "good" deal will need to reflect these realities too.

All of which makes me wonder if the UK will be able to politically accept what the EU will consider to be a "good" deal.

Fratton Fred

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We have to exploit the idiocy of a neighbour, but that doesn't get away from the fact that everyone is aware of the damage a hard brexit will do.

You were wrong, why can you never just admit it? :rolleyes:

wrong about what? All I was doing was pointing out that Brexit is not the gravy train for Ireland people seem to think it is. In fact, Ireland could end up worse off unless it manages to get its case across to the eu, that it is a special case (good luck with that one).

no easy access to the UK market, no tax loop holes for US multinationals to exploit, less eu funds and the possibility that Ireland has to become a large net contributor.....

Rather than worrying about the UK, you really need to start worrying about Ireland.

Fratton Fred

Knasher wrote: »

There are a lot of other factors to be taken into account that wouldn't apply to other nations making a trade deal. There is an undeniable desire to see that the UK doesn't profit from brexit, so a "good" deal from the EU's perspective is probably one which will still see the UK being visibly worse off economically.

Putting aside the political realities though, there is also the fact that the UK markets are simply worth less now. Agriculture will probably be the most obvious example of this; one of the criticisms of the leave side was that the EU imposed a lot of regulations, coming from an agricultural background I can certainly see the truth of this, even if I tend not to disagree with the regulations themselves. If the UK doesn't need to follow these regulations any more, then that will put Irish farms at a competitive disadvantage to UK farms. Even more so as the UK becomes a "trading nation" and opens up its markets to the lower agricultural standards that exist in the US, for example. Meaning that the UK market is dramatically less valuable to the EU, than it once was. A "good" deal will need to reflect these realities too.

All of which makes me wonder if the UK will be able to politically accept what the EU will consider to be a "good" deal.

there are loads of factors to take in to consideration, but the long and the short of it is, the eu will want to do a trade deal with the UK, as it is their largest trading partner. it makes simple economic sense.

Similarly, the UK will want to make sure that it's exporters still meet the criteria required to export in to the eu bloc as it is their biggest trading partner.

There is a mutual desire to do business and after all the willy waving is done and dusted, the politicians will sit down and sort out a deal that makes Brexit as painless as possible for all involved.

catbear

What's starting to worry me is how nonchalant the british public seems to be at this point. At this stage it's looking increasingly like a train wreck Brexit without any real transition in planning. We're in for a shocking time ahead.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

All I was doing was pointing out that Brexit is not the gravy train for Ireland people seem to think it is.

Any examples to back up this nonsense?

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

there are loads of factors to take in to consideration, but the long and the short of it is, the eu will want to do a trade deal with the UK, as it is their largest trading partner. it makes simple economic sense.

The long and the short of it is that no third party trade deal with the EU will be as good as the one the UK is walking away from.

FrancieBrady

Fratton Fred wrote: »

wrong about what? All I was doing was pointing out that Brexit is not the gravy train for Ireland people seem to think it is. In fact, Ireland could end up worse off unless it manages to get its case across to the eu, that it is a special case (good luck with that one).

no easy access to the UK market, no tax loop holes for US multinationals to exploit, less eu funds and the possibility that Ireland has to become a large net contributor.....

Rather than worrying about the UK, you really need to start worrying about Ireland.

You said

it looks like the penny is dropping with Irish politicians as well, that a hard Brexit could be disastrous for Ireland.

You were wrong about that. Irish politicians are and have been fully aware of what a hard brexit will mean.
I have long been off the opinion that the only way to mitigate the negatives of a hard brexit, is to take full advantage of this idiotic move.