Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

Fratton Fred

demfad wrote: »

So in answer to my post you send a link saying 'nobody wants a hard border', you revert to your unfounded assertion that the EU will determine the hardness of border and not the affect of Brexit on Border laws and regulations and to top it off you try to imply that I am getting my information from Sinn Fein HQ?

well in fairness, it is the drama queen type of response you'd hear from shinner hq.

Both governments have clearly stated they do not want a hard border, yes?
The eu will get the final say, yes?

therefore, the eu will ultimately determine whether or not there is a hard border

demfad wrote: »

Ofcourse it is! And Ireland too. International law must be upheld. EU rules in Ireland's case. WTO rules in the UKs case. The border must reflect the trading arrangements between the EU and the UK which is dictated by Brexit.

can you point to the particular bit of international law?

And the WTO rules that say there needs to be a hard border.

steddyeddy

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it isn't anti eu rhetoric, it is reality. If the eu enforced their rules rigidly, then there would need to be a hard border



that's a bit head in the sand isn't it? A hard border will not only affect the GFA, but will also be hugely detrimental to the economy of this island.



you think she doesn't have one?

5% of our trade goes to NI, while 45% of theirs it with ours. Unless the UK wants to subsidise the North another few billion then it should be concerned.

Fratton Fred

steddyeddy wrote: »

5% of our trade goes to NI, while 45% of theirs it with ours. Unless the UK wants to subsidise the North another few billion then it should be concerned.

if you're only interested in trade then fair enough, but we all know there is a lot more to it than that.

Junkyard Tom

steddyeddy wrote: »

45% of theirs

How many of those exporters will simply move their operations across the border to soften the impact of Bexit and have access to the other hundreds-of-millions of consumers in the EU.

This could be very bad for the north.

catbear

jmayo wrote: »

Now to those who work for Google, Facefook, Mickiesoft, Apple or the ones hoping to work for Citibank or Morgan Stanley, none of this might seem important, but to Irish farming and a huge chunk of people in agri related jobs it damn well is.

Thanks for that but I'm sure I read we import more from the UK than we export to.

And of the 40% food we export to the UK, what percentage is it of our overall export?

Anyway what seems more important and not often mentioned is the UK export to Ireland, refined oil.

Edit: the Uk only accounts for 14% of our total exports, a hell of a lot less than I had thought but accounts for 33% of our imports!

steddyeddy

Fratton Fred wrote: »

if you're only interested in trade then fair enough, but we all know there is a lot more to it than that.

There is and I wish all peoples of the North, Unionist and Nationalist peace. I'm saying the GFA came about via cooperation from Iriah and UK governments and it won't simply be the Irish trying to protect it.

Fratton Fred

catbear wrote: »

Thanks for that but I'm sure I read we import more from the UK than we export to.

And of the 40% food we export to the UK, what percentage is it of our overall export?

Anyway what seems more important and not often mentioned is the UK export to Ireland, refined oil.

import more from, because a lot of eu imports come into the UK and then in to Ireland.

It's a bit like all European countries include Belgium and the Netherlands as their larger export markets, due to goods being shipped to Antwerp and Rotterdam prior to export outside the eu.

steddyeddy

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

How many of those exporters will simply move their operations across the border to soften the impact of Bexit and have access to the other hundreds-of-millions of consumers in the EU.

This could be very bad for the north.

It will be an economic diasaster for the north. We'll have our farmers getting EU subsidies while those over the border get nothing.

marienbad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

not if they had a visa

I don't get your argument at all . It is immaterial if he has a visa , the point is it has to be checked at some border crossing into the EU .

For the purposes of this discussion that is currently Shannon Dublin etc - if he gets through there he is free to go anywhere in these islands.

When GB leaves the EU where is the checkpoint for the EU going to be ?

Fratton Fred

marienbad wrote: »

I don't get your argument at all . It is immaterial if he has a visa , the point is it has to be checked at some border crossing into the EU .

For the purposes of this discussion that is currently Shannon Dublin etc - if he gets through there he is free to go anywhere in these islands.

When GB leaves the EU where is the checkpoint for the EU going to be ?

A visa in to Ireland doesn't mean that person can legally travel elsewhere in Europe, even though they physically can. Even eu citizens can't technically travel within the cta without a passport.

Brexit, but a continuation of the cta won't change that.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

A visa in to Ireland doesn't mean that person can legally travel elsewhere in Europe, even though they physically can. Even eu citizens can't technically travel within the cta without a passport.

The issue is enforcement. At present an Irish visa holder can enter the UK via N.I. but will face passport checks going anywhere else in the EU because they will come through a port or airport. Irish embassies issuing visas are well aware of the potential abuse and the applicant has to be able to justify why they are coming to Ireland and not just looking to slip into Britain.

The border and CTA is going to be a huge problem - legally, politically and physically. The UK wants to control immigration but if the CTA remains, they have to do it at Stranraer or Cairnryan. We'll see how that goes down at Stormont.

Same applies to goods. Unless Brexit concludes with a free trade agreement between the EU and UK, customs procedures will apply and that means between the Republic and N.I. A lot of clever people are currently thinking about how that one will sorted.

marienbad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

A visa in to Ireland doesn't mean that person can legally travel elsewhere in Europe, even though they physically can. Even eu citizens can't technically travel within the cta without a passport.

Brexit, but a continuation of the cta won't change that.

Fred I understand all that but it not really addressing my question.

Currently on entering the EU you must go through a border checkpoint .

When the UK is outside the EU where is that border checkpoint(s) located ?

steddyeddy

marienbad wrote: »

Fred I understand all that but it not really addressing my question.

Currently on entering the EU you must go through a border checkpoint .

When the UK is outside the EU where is that border checkpoint(s) located ?

On the British mainland I would think.

First Up

steddyeddy wrote:

On the British mainland I would think.

Yes, but two questions arise;

1. How will Unionists feel about having their papers checked in Stranraer or off a Belfast flight?

2. What about goods going through N.I from or to the Irish Republic? Where and who will conduct EU/UK customs procedures?

steddyeddy

First Up wrote: »

Yes, but two questions arise;

1. How will Unionists feel about having their papers checked in Stranraer or off a Belfast flight?

2. What about goods going through N.I from or to the Irish Republic? Where and who will conduct EU/UK customs procedures?

Well 1. They'll hate it and 2. I haven't a clue. This whole thing is a mess. The unionists voted for it so they should accept some conseqeunces.

Capt'n Midnight

Just a taste of things to come when standards vary.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-38392777

Northern Ireland construction workers are calling for political intervention to solve a cross-border problem involving health and safety training.

They say their qualifications - or cards - are often no longer being accepted to allow them onto sites in the Republic of Ireland.

First Up

steddyeddy wrote:

Well 1. They'll hate it and 2. I haven't a clue. This whole thing is a mess. The unionists voted for it so they should accept some conseqeunces.

Well 56% of N.I voted remain. I assume 99% of Nationalists are in that but some Unionists must have as well - the farmers if they had any sense.

I fully expect the UK to try to use the CTA and border in general as leverage in pushing for a free trade deal with the whole EU. A tricky one for us but if it comes down to it, we know whose side we are on.

Fratton Fred

marienbad wrote: »

Fred I understand all that but it not really addressing my question.

Currently on entering the EU you must go through a border checkpoint .

When the UK is outside the EU where is that border checkpoint(s) located ?

Is that not only a requirement when entering the schengen zone? The border checks are still in place for the UK and Ireland.

marienbad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Is that not only a requirement when entering the schengen zone? The border checks are still in place for the UK and Ireland.

Yeah that is correct , but what happens when the UK is outside the EU ? We only opted out of Schengen because the UK did .

And what happens to the free movement of goods ?

steddyeddy

First Up wrote: »

Well 56% of N.I voted remain. I assume 99% of Nationalists are in that but some Unionists must have as well - the farmers if they had any sense.

I fully expect the UK to try to use the CTA and border in general as leverage in pushing for a free trade deal with the whole EU. A tricky one for us but if it comes down to it, we know whose side we are on.

It is indeed but I think we have the easier job.

Fratton Fred

marienbad wrote: »

Yeah that is correct , but what happens when the UK is outside the EU ? We only opted out of Schengen because the UK did .

And what happens to the free movement of goods ?

Why would Ireland join schengen, if it means a hard border?

Goods is harder, but there are similar issues facing a lot of industries already, particularly aircraft manufacture. The eu could give Ireland a special exemption and I believe Angela Merkal has already mentioned this, or at least recognised Ireland is a special case.

marienbad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Why would Ireland join schengen, if it means a hard border?

Goods is harder, but there are similar issues facing a lot of industries already, particularly aircraft manufacture. The eu could give Ireland a special exemption and I believe Angela Merkal has already mentioned this, or at least recognised Ireland is a special case.

We opted out of Schengen only because the UK did , but with the UK outside the EU it is different going forward .

And I don't see how the EU can give us an exemption even if they are willing to do so . We could end up in some sort of grey zone neither in or out of the EU or the UK . And none of it by choice , but such is the fate of small nations .

I see no way round a hard border for goods .

Capt'n Midnight

jmayo wrote: »

Ehhh according to Bord Bia 41% of our agri exports go to UK.
...
Now to those who work for Google, Facefook, Mickiesoft, Apple or the ones hoping to work for Citibank or Morgan Stanley, none of this might seem important, but to Irish farming and a huge chunk of people in agri related jobs it damn well is.

Remember Larry Goodman the exports of Beef to the Middle East ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Goodman#War_in_Iraq_and_emergency_legislation
All sorts of dodgy. It's not a good thing to have so much of our GDP going through one individual.

But we are well suited to export Halal (and Kosher) beef to the Middle East and other places where our neutrality is an asset. We have quality products. Yes New Zealand might benefit from Brexit but it's not like we won't be able export our food.

Jaggo

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Why would Ireland join schengen, if it means a hard border?

Goods is harder, but there are similar issues facing a lot of industries already, particularly aircraft manufacture. The eu could give Ireland a special exemption and I believe Angela Merkal has already mentioned this, or at least recognised Ireland is a special case.

I accept that the hard border will be bad for Northern Ireland but why is everyone certain that it will be bad for the South. Northern Ireland exports Construction Services, agri products and 'Administration Services' to the south. These are all easily replaced with jobs moving South, particularily in rural Ireland.

And limiting the movement accross the border (in theory) will mean a reduction of southern money going north (ie more jobs, more tax, protecting the border counties).

I have yet to see a believable report on bad economic consequences for the South if a hard border is implimented.

marienbad

Jaggo wrote: »

I accept that the hard border will be bad for Northern Ireland but why is everyone certain that it will be bad for the South. Northern Ireland exports Construction Services, agri products and 'Administration Services' to the south. These are all easily replaced with jobs moving South, particularily in rural Ireland.

And limiting the movement accross the border (in theory) will mean a reduction of southern money going north (ie more jobs, more tax, protecting the border counties).

I have yet to see a believable report on bad economic consequences for the South if a hard border is implimented.

Anything that impacts the free movement of people goods and services between the ROI and the UK is bad . Maybe less than 25 years ago but still bad for us .

Fratton Fred

Jaggo wrote: »

I accept that the hard border will be bad for Northern Ireland but why is everyone certain that it will be bad for the South. Northern Ireland exports Construction Services, agri products and 'Administration Services' to the south. These are all easily replaced with jobs moving South, particularily in rural Ireland.

And limiting the movement accross the border (in theory) will mean a reduction of southern money going north (ie more jobs, more tax, protecting the border counties).

I have yet to see a believable report on bad economic consequences for the South if a hard border is implimented.

I believe it contravenes the Good Friday Agreement.

Jaggo

marienbad wrote: »

Anything that impacts the free movement of people goods and services between the ROI and the UK is bad . Maybe less than 25 years ago but still bad for us .

But there will almost certainly be a border between Ireland and the UK - none of the UK ministers have come out and even pretended that avoiding this is possible. The border discussion was relating to the North v South only.

Trade is supposed to be benefical to both countries when both have comparative advantages in specific areas of trade. Ie. We are great at making product A, whereas the North does product B, great lets exchange. But the north sells us: food, construction services (a nice way of saying northern companies getting southern construction jobs and money) and admin services, all stuff we already do. These are all the areas that rural Ireland (non city Ireland) could use to grow its economy.

Anyway, my point really is that we are all just assuming that a hard border north and south is supposed to be really bad. I can't see this from any of the trade figures.

marienbad

Jaggo wrote: »

But there will almost certainly be a border between Ireland and the UK - none of the UK ministers have come out and even pretended that avoiding this is possible. The border discussion was relating to the North v South only.

Trade is supposed to be benefical to both countries when both have comparative advantages in specific areas of trade. Ie. We are great at making product A, whereas the North does product B, great lets exchange. But the north sells us: food, construction services (a nice way of saying northern companies getting southern construction jobs and money) and admin services, all stuff we already do. These are all the areas that rural Ireland (non city Ireland) could use to grow its economy.

Anyway, my point really is that we are all just assuming that a hard border north and south is supposed to be really bad. I can't see this from any of the trade figures.

Well it has to be bad for somebody , otherwise we would have never joined the EU in the first place .

Maybe I am in a minority but I don't want it having a negative effect on anyone North or South or even in the UK no matter how they voted .

catbear

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Yes New Zealand might benefit from Brexit but it's not like we won't be able export our food.

Actually back a few months ago at a commonwealth nations meetup the message was very clear that the post brexit weakness of sterling was already hitting the likes of NZ and they warned that further reduction of UK purchasing power would only make their producers seek out more lucrative markets.

Capt'n Midnight

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So it is in the eu's interests to negotiate a good deal with the UK.

With the UK, not for the UK

Fratton Fred wrote: »

have you actually seen any firm plans from Fine Gael on Brexit?

There's the one about organising NI accession into the EU if there's a reunion citing East Germany as a precedent.

It's only a contingency plan, but that's still one more plan than has come out of the UK so far.


It's very easy to handwave and ask for plans when you know damn well that both sides are holding their cards close.

So far the big winners are the foreigners buying up UK assets at a 20% discount.