Brexit: The Last Stand (No name calling)

marienbad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

have you actually seen any firm plans from Fine Gael on Brexit?

Come on Fred , how can we have firm plans on Brexit when the UK government doesn't ? I am sure we have contingency scenarios but we really have little control over events .

And whatever about the benefits to Ireland , everyone .and I mean anyone with even the slightest shred of common sense knows that this is going to be bad for us as well as the UK . The only question is how bad .

Fratton Fred

marienbad wrote: »

Come on Fred , how can we have firm plans on Brexit when the UK government doesn't ? I am sure we have contingency scenarios but we really have little control over events .

I believe the UK government is the least of Ireland's worries, it is how the eu reacts that should be of concern.

marienbad wrote: »

And whatever about the benefits to Ireland , everyone .and I mean anyone with even the slightest shred of common sense knows that this is going to be bad for us as well as the UK . The only question is how bad .

that's very true.

steddyeddy

A Little Pony wrote: »

He never should have been put in that position in the first place. Like it was said on Good Morning Britain today, it would be like getting a divorce and hiring a lawyer who loves your wife. It is stupid and him resigning is good news. We need people put in place who actually want Brexit, will be doing everything to hurry it up. 

This is the same guy who was part of David Cameron's negotiating team when he went to the EU to get a better deal before he put the referendum to the British electorate. Possibly the worst negotiations in the history of the United Kingdom, which was the nail in the coffin as far as the UK staying part of the EU was concerned.

Actually remainers should be blaming him as much as anyone as to why the UK is leaving the EU, he was part of that terrible attempt to gain concessions, he should blame himself.

ALP why would you hire someone who hates the entity (the EU in this case) you want to get a trade deal with to negotiate the trade deal?

marienbad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I believe the UK government is the least of Ireland's worries, it is how the eu reacts that should be of concern.



that's very true.

I don't know Fred , to me the UK seem to be sleepwalking into this thing , making it up on the hoof so to speak .

And then why the continuous anti EU rhetoric ? The decision is made - lets all try and make the best of it - instead it is like a Premier league game where there has to be winners losers and villains.

steddyeddy

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I believe the UK government is the least of Ireland's worries, it is how the eu reacts that should be of concern.



that's very true.

What concerns should we have Fred? The CTA is more the UKs problem as the North is a UK state. If the GFA breaks down they'll have to deal with the most fallout.

Enzokk

So what does the latest pronouncements from Andrea Leadsom tell us about the type of Brexit that will be argued for?

Brexit Environment Secretary Andrea Leadsom UK farmers EU migrant labour seasonal workers

So the farmers will be able to hire unskilled labour from the EU, which is exactly what people didn't want as its unskilled. It seems this is another promise that will need to be delivered on to a sector (after the assurances given to Nissan) which surely blocks in the UK position when it comes to the negotiations.

MrPudding

Knasher wrote: »

Agriculture will probably be the most obvious example of this; one of the criticisms of the leave side was that the EU imposed a lot of regulations, coming from an agricultural background I can certainly see the truth of this, even if I tend not to disagree with the regulations themselves. If the UK doesn't need to follow these regulations any more, then that will put Irish farms at a competitive disadvantage to UK farms. Even more so as the UK becomes a "trading nation" and opens up its markets to the lower agricultural standards that exist in the US, for example. Meaning that the UK market is dramatically less valuable to the EU, than it once was. A "good" deal will need to reflect these realities too.

This is my first day back at work, so I am not quite firing on all cylinders, but is this much of an issue?

If the UK races to the bottom, in terms of regulations, then they won't be able to sell into the EU, including Ireland. I guess there would be loss of trade in terms of Irish products being too expensive in the UK, compared to UK products, but is that going to happen? Can the UK actually afford not to comply with EU regulations in this area?

catbear wrote: »

What's starting to worry me is how nonchalant the british public seems to be at this point. At this stage, it's looking increasingly like a train wreck Brexit without any real transition in planning. We're in for a shocking time ahead.

Yeah, it is really scary. I talk to quite a lot of people about this, and a lot of the Brexit people simply don't care and refuse to believe it will be anything but good, or, even scarier, they know it will be bad but think that is a price worth paying for a reduction in immigration that actually won't happen.

MrP

RasTa

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I know Enda is pretty weak, but I think you'll find that Fine Gael are in power.

You've missed the point yet again, the brits don't even have a plan for Brexit so how can Enda?

It's as stupid as asking what's Merkel's plans for brexit.

Fratton Fred

marienbad wrote: »

I don't know Fred , to me the UK seem to be sleepwalking into this thing , making it up on the hoof so to speak .

And then why the continuous anti EU rhetoric ? The decision is made - lets all try and make the best of it - instead it is like a Premier league game where there has to be winners losers and villains.

it isn't anti eu rhetoric, it is reality. If the eu enforced their rules rigidly, then there would need to be a hard border

steddyeddy wrote: »

What concerns should we have Fred? The CTA is more the UKs problem as the North is a UK state. If the GFA breaks down they'll have to deal with the most fallout.

that's a bit head in the sand isn't it? A hard border will not only affect the GFA, but will also be hugely detrimental to the economy of this island.

RasTa wrote: »

You've missed the point yet again, the brits don't even have a plan for Brexit so how can Enda?

It's as stupid as asking what's Merkel's plans for brexit.

you think she doesn't have one?

Fratton Fred

MrPudding wrote: »

Yeah, it is really scary. I talk to quite a lot of people about this, and a lot of the Brexit people simply don't care and refuse to believe it will be anything but good, or, even scarier, they know it will be bad but think that is a price worth paying for a reduction in immigration that actually won't happen.

it is quite scary, but it really does depend on who you talk to.

Of the friends I spent most of Christmas with, all bar one voted to remain and they are very concerned, but they also have confidence in Theresa May (they have all met her and are quite happy with her as their MP and PM).

The one that voted to leave, can't wait to stick it to the Germans, which is rather odd, as he is a BMW salesman :rolleyes:

marienbad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it isn't anti eu rhetoric, it is reality. If the eu enforced their rules rigidly, then there would need to be a hard border

This is the bit I don't get . The UK voted to leave , one of the main reasons (if not the main one ) was immigration - how can you square that circle without a hard border ?

Maybe not within the island of Ireland but at least from it .What alternatives are there ?

FrancieBrady

Fratton Fred wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/banks-already-looking-at-moving-to-dublin-postbrexit-central-bank-35082480.html

http://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0102/842192-central-bank-brexit/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/25/uk-banks-financial-firms-moving-ireland

Fred caught telling porkies, Fred continues telling porkies.

RasTa

Fratton Fred wrote: »

it isn't anti eu rhetoric, it is reality. If the eu enforced their rules rigidly, then there would need to be a hard border



that's a bit head in the sand isn't it? A hard border will not only affect the GFA, but will also be hugely detrimental to the economy of this island.



you think she doesn't have one?

Yeah, **** them over as much as possible although that's Junker's train of thought to the media.

demfad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

That's the truth is it, despite Enda and Theresa saying otherwise?

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/theresa-may-no-return-to-borders-of-the-past-428067.html

It is quite clear that neither government want a hard border, so I'm not sure where you get the idea that it is the "Truth" (other than in shinner hq maybe :rolleyes:)

the reality is, the eu may demand one and Ireland are powerless to prevent it.



I have no problem with it, I am just pointing out these convenient press releases from high ranking people in public office.

So in answer to my post you send a link saying 'nobody wants a hard border', you revert to your unfounded assertion that the EU will determine the hardness of border and not the affect of Brexit on Border laws and regulations and to top it off you try to imply that I am getting my information from Sinn Fein HQ?

Be careful outside sir! There are woodpeckers about!

Fratton Fred

marienbad wrote: »

This is the bit I don't get . The UK voted to leave , one of the main reasons (if not the main one ) was immigration - how can you square that circle without a hard border ?

Maybe not within the island of Ireland but at least from it .What alternatives are there ?

if someone flew to Ireland, from lets say Botswana tomorrow. There is nothing to stop them travelling to Belfast and hopping on a ferry to Scotland.

A person that does choose to enter the UK through this route, will have no right to work, no right to benefits etc. as they are not an eu citizen.

Post Brexit, rather than just applying to the guy from Botswana, that will apply to eu citizens as well.

Knasher

MrPudding wrote: »

If the UK races to the bottom, in terms of regulations, then they won't be able to sell into the EU, including Ireland. I guess there would be loss of trade in terms of Irish products being too expensive in the UK, compared to UK products, but is that going to happen? Can the UK actually afford not to comply with EU regulations in this area?

Well agriculture isn't as important a component in the UK economy as it is here. So I suspect that the UK will be very willing to open their agricultural sector to the competition from places like Latin America, in order to secure access for other industries. A position they have held for a long time anyway, blaming France and Poland for refusing access.

irelandrover

Fratton Fred wrote: »

if someone flew to Ireland, from lets say Botswana tomorrow. There is nothing to stop them travelling to Belfast and hopping on a ferry to Scotland.

A person that does choose to enter the UK through this route, will have no right to work, no right to benefits etc. as they are not an eu citizen.

Post Brexit, rather than just applying to the guy from Botswana, that will apply to eu citizens as well.

Isn't that why the UK would need to enforce a hard border?

demfad

Knasher wrote: »

Well agriculture isn't as important a component in the UK economy as it is here. So I suspect that the UK will be very willing to open their agricultural sector to the competition from places like Latin America, in order to secure access for other industries. A position they have held for a long time anyway, blaming France and Poland for refusing access.

Blaming France and Poland for refusing access for what exactly?

demfad

irelandrover wrote: »

Isn't that why the UK would need to enforce a hard border?

Ofcourse it is! And Ireland too. International law must be upheld. EU rules in Ireland's case. WTO rules in the UKs case. The border must reflect the trading arrangements between the EU and the UK which is dictated by Brexit.

FrancieBrady

Hard border = United Ireland debate and vote.
I don't think republicans would settle for anything less than that. And it would be very hard for the British to not back it. The Brexiters would be all for it if immigration is their bailiwick. The more Britain is an island the more secure they are and consequently, the more 'control' they have.

catbear

Knasher wrote: »

Well agriculture isn't as important a component in the UK economy as it is here. So I suspect that the UK will be very willing to open their agricultural sector to the competition from places like Latin America, in order to secure access for other industries. A position they have held for a long time anyway, blaming France and Poland for refusing access.

Don't we import more from the UK than we export to them?

The export growth in Irish food produce has been mostly global. Musgraves are going to be exporting directly into the chinese market this year.

First Up

Fratton Fred wrote:

if someone flew to Ireland, from lets say Botswana tomorrow. There is nothing to stop them travelling to Belfast and hopping on a ferry to Scotland.

They would only be allowed into Ireland if they have a valid visa. Irish immigration regularly stops people they suspect of looking to enter the UK by the back door.

The common travel area allows them to travel unchecked to Northern Ireland but unless their visa covers the UK, they run the risk of being found out.

The most effective and least disruptive way to accomodate with the CTA would be to apply checks between N.I and Britain and it will be interesting to see how Ms May deals with the Unionists on that.

Fleawuss

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Hard border = United Ireland debate and vote.
I don't think republicans would settle for anything less than that. And it would be very hard for the British to not back it. The Brexiters would be all for it if immigration is their bailiwick. The more Britain is an island the more secure they are and consequently, the more 'control' they have.

Republicans need to be careful about what they wish for: there's an assumption being made that a remain vote in NI translates directly into a United Ireland vote. That, IMHO, simply isn't so. A vote will be carried in time: but that will need a very difficult few years for NI. The constitutional structure of the U.K. Could well be affected and changed by the Brexit Mrs May is cooking up. Rather than rush the fences a very difficult Brexit with cuts in Brit public spending and EU compensation for Ireland due to special case market loss will make the vote more likely to be successful. I'd be very reluctant to put up with any removal of the Republic which will be demanded by unionists. There will be all sorts of demands made about links to the crown etc. I think a prolonged withering of the unionist statelet would be desirable. Hard Brexit may well be the key.

Junkyard Tom

MrPudding wrote: »

Can the UK actually afford not to comply with EU regulations in this area?

No way. Almost half of the UK's exports go to the EU so they'll have to clone EU regulations to ensure there aren't miles of British trucks and ships backed up awaiting inspection of their goods.

FrancieBrady

Fleawuss wrote: »

Republicans need to be careful about what they wish for: there's an assumption being made that a remain vote in NI translates directly into a United Ireland vote. That, IMHO, simply isn't so. A vote will be carried in time: but that will need a very difficult few years for NI. The constitutional structure of the U.K. Could well be affected and changed by the Brexit Mrs May is cooking up. Rather than rush the fences a very difficult Brexit with cuts in Brit public spending and EU compensation for Ireland due to special case market loss will make the vote more likely to be successful. I'd be very reluctant to put up with any removal of the Republic which will be demanded by unionists. There will be all sorts of demands made about links to the crown etc. I think a prolonged withering of the unionist statelet would be desirable. Hard Brexit may well be the key.

I think the debate and vote will be necessary as a safety valve, if nothing else.
The issue needs to be debated and NI needs a creative way forward out of the basket case it has become. Whatever about the rest of the UK, the basket only gets bigger for NI if a hard or soft Brexit ensues.
It would be opportune to be ahead of the chaos that would be caused if Scotland manages to end the UK era of history as well.

marienbad

Fratton Fred wrote: »

if someone flew to Ireland, from lets say Botswana tomorrow. There is nothing to stop them travelling to Belfast and hopping on a ferry to Scotland.

A person that does choose to enter the UK through this route, will have no right to work, no right to benefits etc. as they are not an eu citizen.

Post Brexit, rather than just applying to the guy from Botswana, that will apply to eu citizens as well.

Yeah but the guy from Botswana would be stopped at Shannon Dublin etc . So where is the new stopping point going to be ?

jmayo

catbear wrote: »

Don't we import more from the UK than we export to them?

The export growth in Irish food produce has been mostly global. Musgraves are going to be exporting directly into the chinese market this year.

Ehhh according to Bord Bia 41% of our agri exports go to UK.

We might be starting to export some to likes of China, but it is minuscule in comparison to importance of UK market.

In 2015, Ireland exported an estimated 500,000 tonnes of beef worth approximately €2.41 billion.

In 2015, 178,000 cattle were exported live from Ireland worth approximately €135 million.
Good luck getting them to China. :rolleyes:

During 2015 Ireland exported an estimated 47,000 tonnes of sheepmeat which was valued at approximately €230 million.
The UK and France continue to be the core markets for Irish sheepmeat accounting for over 60% of total export volumes in 2015.

In 2015, Ireland exported an estimated 230,000 tonnes of pigmeat worth an estimated €570 million.
In 2015, the UK was the main market for Irish pigmeat taking 40% of our total exports. Continental EU markets accounted for 25% of our pigmeat exports while the remaining 35% went to international markets.

Now to those who work for Google, Facefook, Mickiesoft, Apple or the ones hoping to work for Citibank or Morgan Stanley, none of this might seem important, but to Irish farming and a huge chunk of people in agri related jobs it damn well is.

Knasher

demfad wrote: »

Blaming France and Poland for refusing access for what exactly?

The EU is very protectionist when it comes to agriculture, and the UK noticeable less so. So trade agreements tend to reflect this, and obviously that has an effect on countries that have large agrarian sectors.

Fratton Fred

First Up wrote: »

They would only be allowed into Ireland if they have a valid visa. Irish immigration regularly stops people they suspect of looking to enter the UK by the back door.

and that works now, so why would it need to change?

Fratton Fred

marienbad wrote: »

Yeah but the guy from Botswana would be stopped at Shannon Dublin etc . So where is the new stopping point going to be ?

not if they had a visa