Pro12 Final Build up thread: uppity westerners v their ladyboy brothers

Billysays no

thomond2006 wrote: »

Selective quote I know but this is the comment of the year!

I did put the word unbiased in quotes :-)

Adbrowne

Billysays no wrote: »

Ok all the flights and accommodation stuff aside lets try a bit of 'unbiased' analysis.
Lets start by saying the only likely starting change made by either team would possibly be Rob Kearney for Isa.
So then its Loughney, McCartney, Bealham vs McGrath, Strauss and Ross. Ok slight advantage to Leinster
Muldowney and Dillane vs Toner and Kearney. Slight advantage to Connacht
McKeon, Heenan and Muldoon vs Ruddock, Murphy and Heaslip. Honours even
Marmion vs Reddan. Here a bit of bias. I believe Marmions sniping runs over Reddans lateral play gives advantage Connacht
McGinty vs Sexton. Advantage Leinster. Very similar players but Sexton's goalkicking could be crucial.
Henshaw and Aki vs Teo and Ringrose. Advantage Connacht
Healy and Niyi vs Fitz and D Kearney. Advantage Connacht but if Luke is at his best he could match Matt
O'Halloran vs Kearney. Advantage Connacht

Reserves:
Cooney, Heffernan, Ah You vs Dooley, Cronin, Furlong definite advantage Leinster
Browne vs Furlong advantage Leinster
O'Brien vs Conan is evens
Cooney vs McGrath is evens
Robb vs Madigan is advantage Connacht on the basis that Madigan is liable to do anything while Robb is simply rock solid

I see this game as anyone's.

forget the player v player for a minute and look at the set piece for example. I think Leinster will have a big advantage there. Reddan also had a huge game on friday, no doubt helped by the leinster forwards giving him a quality platform.

Billysays no

Adbrowne wrote: »

forget the player v player for a minute and look at the set piece for example. I think Leinster will have a big advantage there. Reddan also had a huge game on friday, no doubt helped by the leinster forwards giving him a quality platform.

It hasn't been often that i agree with you adbrowne but I agree with you on this. And in times past I would agree with you. Many will remember me being hugely critical of marmion and his slow play at the set piece. Those days are gone. Ball goes in and is on the move in the blink of an eye (assuming a Connacht set). If its a Leinster scrum well McCartney is a beast and bealham stands his ground. The slight advantage I mentioned was McGrath and if buckley had been fit I would have called it evens.

And then if you want to look at it from an overall team perspective then its its advantage Connacht. Many will identify Connacht as a team that has leaked tries all season. Consider our last games (ignore Treviso, it was a second team fielded). There is no more leaking of tries. Those days are done.

Eddie o Sullivan was gas on against the head. First it was not a high risk strategy and next question it was. Connacht has developed an utter mad strategy into a controlled and exciting strategy. It didn't happen overnight. But its got there. On two weekends one try per game was scored by Glasgow (the most exciting team in the league).

Leinster will not beat Connacht physically. They will beat them playing rugby or they won't beat them.

Adbrowne

Billysays no wrote: »

It hasn't been often that i agree with you adbrowne but I agree with you on this. And in times past I would agree with you. Many will remember me being hugely critical of marmion and his slow play at the set piece. Those days are gone. Ball goes in and is on the move in the blink of an eye (assuming a Connacht set). If its a Leinster scrum well McCartney is a beast and bealham stands his ground. The slight advantage I mentioned was McGrath and if buckley had been fit I would have called it evens.

And then if you want to look at it from an overall team perspective then its its advantage Connacht. Many will identify Connacht as a team that has leaked tries all season. Consider our last games (ignore Treviso, it was a second team fielded). There is no more leaking of tries. Those days are done.

Eddie o Sullivan was gas on against the head. First it was not a high risk strategy and next question it was. Connacht has developed an utter mad strategy into a controlled and exciting strategy. It didn't happen overnight. But its got there. On two weekends one try per game was scored by Glasgow (the most exciting team in the league).

Leinster will not beat Connacht physically. They will beat them playing rugby or they won't beat them.

in the two games v glasgow, i thought connacht kicked a bit more at the right time. Maybe a lesson learned but also the first game was played in crap conditions and on saturday glasgow were terrible, the worst Ive seen from them this year. They were over reliant on Nakarawe getting an offload away to create something I felt and connacht dealt with it fairly well.

How you can say its advantage connacht from an overall team perspective is beyond me. Both finished the season on 73 points but leinster have their top players available now with greater continuity then at any time previously this season. If anything thats advantage leinster but that means jack sh1t at kick off time on saturday.

Billysays no

thomond2006 wrote: »

Selective quote I know but this is the comment of the year!

Maybe I should have said if luke could catch matt. Unlikely but possible

Yeah_Right

Billysays no wrote: »

Ok all the flights and accommodation stuff aside lets try a bit of 'unbiased' analysis.
Lets start by saying the only likely starting change made by either team would possibly be Rob Kearney for Isa.
So then its Loughney, McCartney, Bealham vs McGrath, Strauss and Ross. Ok slight advantage to Leinster
Muldowney and Dillane vs Toner and Kearney. Slight advantage to Connacht
McKeon, Heenan and Muldoon vs Ruddock, Murphy and Heaslip. Honours even
Marmion vs Reddan. Here a bit of bias. I believe Marmions sniping runs over Reddans lateral play gives advantage Connacht
McGinty vs Sexton. Advantage Leinster. Very similar players but Sexton's goalkicking could be crucial.
Henshaw and Aki vs Teo and Ringrose. Advantage Connacht
Healy and Niyi vs Fitz and D Kearney. Advantage Connacht but if Luke is at his best he could match Matt
O'Halloran vs Kearney. Advantage Connacht

Reserves:
Cooney, Heffernan, Ah You vs Dooley, Cronin, Furlong definite advantage Leinster
Browne vs Furlong advantage Leinster
O'Brien vs Conan is evens
Cooney vs McGrath is evens
Robb vs Madigan is advantage Connacht on the basis that Madigan is liable to do anything while Robb is simply rock solid

I see this game as anyone's.

If that's you trying to be unbiased, then I'd hate see what your analysis would look like with Connacht tinted glasses on. There is so much wrong there.

Zzippy

sydthebeat wrote: »

so was it the butt hurt nordie mod that changed the title..... or are these westerners getting wayyyy beyond their station zzippy??

Oops. Did I really do that? My bad...

molloyjh

thomond2006 wrote: »

Selective quote I know but this is the comment of the year!

Zzippy

Ferry booked. No idea where we're going to sleep but we'll be there... Bring it on!

freyners

Zzippy wrote: »

Ferry booked. No idea where we're going to sleep but we'll be there... Bring it on!

Checked this mornign. If you buy the tickets via the SRU they have reserved some rooms. Think connacht have the same deal. 170 pound is as cheap as going.

I booked a day trip with Aer Lingus. Better not be much delays

BrokenMan

Sure may as well give another view on the match ups. Will try and keep the green tinted glasses off but I'm sure I wont entirely.

Loughney, McCartney, Bealham vs McGrath, Strauss and Ross. Ross over Loughney definitely swings this in Leinsters favor. Also as good as Bealham is and has been all season McGrath is playing fantastic. Im really looking forward to seeing them up against each other in the scrum.
Muldowney and Dillane vs Toner and Kearney. So much to look forward to here. Muldowney has been immense all season and Dillane is just a beast. But Toner is the proven international and Kearney is coming int serious form last few games. For me it could go either way and the key will be how the young upstart gets on against the proven international.
McKeon, Heenan and Muldoon vs Ruddock, Murphy and Heaslip. Two great units but the proven big match experience of the Leinster lads may just swing it.
Marmion vs Reddan. Another young up and coming versus the proven international. Reddan was going nowhere earlier in the season but as with a lot of the Leinster players is really coming into form. His performance in the Semi was up there with his best. If he can recreate that then its advantage Leinster. Marmion though has been on fire as well and any drop below his semi final standards will swing it to Connacht.
McGinty vs Sexton. No contest. As highly as I rate AJ, he just inst at Sextons level.
Henshaw and Aki vs Teo and Ringrose. Advantage everyone watching the game. This is going to be epic. Between them they have everything, Power, pace ability to spot a gap. I reckon Akis magic can swing it in Connachts favor.
Healy and Niyi vs Fitz and D Kearney. Two of the form wingers in the country in Healy and Niyi,even though Heley has been a little below his best recently. Luke has stepped it back up again. Both teams use their wingers very differently as well. To close to call for me.
O'Halloran vs Kearney. The young lad against the incumbent again. Very different type of Full Backs and the teams playing a very different style. Given they way each team plays there's going to be very little in it between them.

Reserves:
Cooney, Heffernan, Ah You vs Dooley, Cronin, Furlong definite advantage Leinster
Browne vs Furlong advantage Leinster
O'Brien vs Conan is evens
Cooney vs McGrath advantage Connacht. Cooney just has a better presence around the pitch in my opinion. Although we may not actually see McGrath on the field for too long.
Robb vs Madigan advantage Leinster but how much game time will either one see?

Overall on paper its advantage to Leinster and the bookies agree. However there are a number of close matches and if Connact get on top in those then they can very well win this one.

Johnny Farango

Zzippy wrote: »

Ferry booked. No idea where we're going to sleep but we'll be there... Bring it on!

I was told by someone who regularly visits Edinburgh to tell anyone stuck for accommodation to go north of the firth of forth and stay in Dunfermline, half an hour on train in.

Quint2010

Billysays no wrote: »

Ok all the flights and accommodation stuff aside lets try a bit of 'unbiased' analysis.
Lets start by saying the only likely starting change made by either team would possibly be Rob Kearney for Isa.
So then its Loughney, McCartney, Bealham vs McGrath, Strauss and Ross. Ok slight advantage to Leinster
Muldowney and Dillane vs Toner and Kearney. Slight advantage to Connacht
McKeon, Heenan and Muldoon vs Ruddock, Murphy and Heaslip. Honours even
Marmion vs Reddan. Here a bit of bias. I believe Marmions sniping runs over Reddans lateral play gives advantage Connacht
McGinty vs Sexton. Advantage Leinster. Very similar players but Sexton's goalkicking could be crucial.
Henshaw and Aki vs Teo and Ringrose. Advantage Connacht
Healy and Niyi vs Fitz and D Kearney. Advantage Connacht but if Luke is at his best he could match Matt
O'Halloran vs Kearney. Advantage Connacht

Reserves:
Cooney, Heffernan, Ah You vs Dooley, Cronin, Furlong definite advantage Leinster
Browne vs Furlong advantage Leinster
O'Brien vs Conan is evens
Cooney vs McGrath is evens
Robb vs Madigan is advantage Connacht on the basis that Madigan is liable to do anything while Robb is simply rock solid

I see this game as anyone's.

Whatever about the head to heads what you are not factoring in here is big game experience. I think that's what will ultimately be the deciding factor.

Johnny Farango

I think Connacht have a a big advantage in the centres.

former total

These 'head to head' player ratings are usually a very poor indicator of how a game will pan out.

On paper, it's not even close, there are some EXTREMELY generous comparisons going on there, Leinster have much the "better" team.

However, the reality of the game won't bear any resemblance to this. It's going to be a close game because the team does not equal player A + player B + .....

Billysays no

Quint2010 wrote: »

Whatever about the head to heads what you are not factoring in here is big game experience. I think that's what will ultimately be the deciding factor.

Glasgow had the big game experience last weekend. Didn't help them much

Quint2010

Billysays no wrote: »

Glasgow had the big game experience last weekend. Didn't help them much

This is a final. On a neutral ground. Big difference.

Billysays no

Quint2010 wrote: »

This is a final. On a neutral ground. Big difference.

I hazard a guess there won't be anything neutral about that ground come Saturday

Homesick Alien

I'd like to see Leinster play with a bit more joy in the final. They've always looked a bit miserable this season even when scoring tries and winning games. I don't know whether that's the influence of Nark Twain back in 10 shirt this season or what but all the other provinces seem to genuinely enjoy playing and celebrate and smile when tries are scored. For Leinster it's "serious-face-pat-on-the-back".

Homesick Alien

I'd like to see Leinster play with a bit more joy in the final. They've always looked a bit miserable this season even when scoring tries and winning games. I don't know whether that's the influence of Nark Twain back in 10 shirt this season or what but all the other provinces seem to genuinely enjoy playing and celebrate and smile when tries are scored. For Leinster it's "serious-face-pat-on-the-back".

Quint2010

Billysays no wrote: »

I hazard a guess there won't be anything neutral about that ground come Saturday

Yeah Connacht may have a larger support but not by much. I am not one who holds much store by a team have more support at a ground. If that was the case away teams would never win. Leinster will have a good following there. That will do them.

former total

Assuming much of the crowd are locals, they will probably all be weighing in behind Connacht because people love the underdog.

Adbrowne

Homesick Alien wrote: »

For Leinster it's "serious-face-pat-on-the-back".

Thats a Winning mentality.

b.gud

former total wrote: »

Assuming much of the crowd are locals, they will probably all be weighing in behind Connacht because people love the underdog.

Yeah I'd imagine that the vast majority of people there who are just going to it to witness the event will be rooting for Connacht. Even if that means that the majority of people in the stadium are shouting for Connacht I don't think it'll be a huge disadvantage to Leinster as it, obviously, won't be the same as a home game for Connacht.

I don't think the crowd will be a deciding factor, but it will be slightly in favour of Connacht and in a big game like this you have to take every little advantage you can

Podge_irl

Billysays no wrote: »

Glasgow had the big game experience last weekend. Didn't help them much

Glasgow's big game experience isn't in the same universe as Leinster's.

galwaylad14

Billysays no wrote: »

Glasgow had the big game experience last weekend. Didn't help them much

Ah look we have a chance to win but let's be fair, Leinster are favourites and rightly so. They have a full team of international players, they're in great form and they've been here before and brought home the cup. All that counts for a lot.

I read your head to head analysis and I think you've been a bit generous to us in a few of them. In the cold light of day, we had our best ever season with minimal disruption due to the world cup and 6 nations. Leinster had by their own standards an average enough season, with huge disruption due to internationals and yet they still finished ahead of us in the regular season table.

We have a chance on Saturday but Leinster are favourites for a reason.

briandebum

One big thing ye seem to be leaving out of these head to head comparisons is the coaching match up, which I reckon is the place where Connacht would seem to have an advantage.
Also the general clash of styles should be interesting, I could see Leinster keeping it tight with Sexton controlling the territory whilst they take advantage of Loughney come scrum time and also their superior front row bench in the the last twenty minutes. However it is worth noting that they tried the physical bullying strategy at the sportsground game and Connacht were (just about!) able to hold up to it, so they will have to show a bit more ambition.
The caveat to that sportsground game is that Leinster were just getting all their players back together around then and seem to have come into a bit more form since then.

Adbrowne

briandebum wrote: »

One big thing ye seem to be leaving out of these head to head comparisons is the coaching match up, which I reckon is the place where Connacht would seem to have an advantage. .

Why would connacht have an advantage in coaching over a team which finished above them in the regular season.

Lam has way more experience as a head coach and in relation to connacht this is his third(?) season out West. He has had a full pre season with almost his entire squad.

Cullen is in year one and it couldnt have been any more awkward with the RWC and 6n taking about 20 players away for huge chunks of time. He has also managed to take leinster to top the regular season table despite having to use 56 players which is a record, especially when you consider the players at the rwc only came back to leinster at the end of october. That says a lot about Cullens ability IMO.

I think there is no real advantage either way there. Both have done very good jobs in different circumstances and ways.

molloyjh

It's an interesting one. Connacht have been far more consistent this season than Leinster and even lately Leinsters form hasn't been great. We were very lucky to beat Munster at home and got trounced by Ulster only a few weeks back. They seem to have found some of their mojo on Friday, but at this stage we can't really view that as being much more than a one-off unless/until they repeat it.

We do have the big match experience and traditionally do well in knock-out rugby. But traditionally Connacht fall away as the season goes on when they start well. And many (myself included) have all but written them off a few times. After the back-to-back losses to Scarlets I thought that was it, they'd fade away at that point. It didn't happen. When they lost to Grenoble I thought the wheels might come off the chariot. They didn't. When Glasgow came to town on their great run of form I figured Glasgow would do the job. They didn't. And in the SF on Saturday I again thought Glasgow would win it (with the proviso that Russell didn't have a bad game again). Yet again Connacht proved me wrong. And that's something they've consistently done all season.

Leinster clearly have the better individuals, Connacht the better coach. Connacht will have the neutral support in the ground, Leinster will probably have more travelling support. Leinster came within a point in the Sportsground in awful conditions and in awful form while they nilled Connacht in the RDS in even worse conditions. Leinster are rightly favourites and I do think should win it, but it really isn't a simple and straight forward game where the better players will come out on top. Connacht have earned their place in the final and any team that has done that can win the thing. But if Leinster can continue where they left off on Friday I reckon they'll have too much for Connacht. Any drop off in performance levels though and they open the door for the Westeners.

thomond2006

former total wrote: »

Assuming much of the crowd are locals, they will probably all be weighing in behind Connacht because people love the underdog.

Exactly. Who would want to support evil Dublin 4 people like Jamie Heaslip? :pac: