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Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

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    #1652
    Easterly Beasterly
    Registered Users Posts: 209 ✭✭Easterly Beasterly


    I always remember -8 uppers being the magic number for streamers back in 2010. Would the Irish Sea be colder in January though?


    Sorry just realised I posted this in FI Charts Thread


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    #1653
    elastico
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,592 ✭✭✭elastico


    gerrybhoy wrote: »
    excited-baby.gif

    Gonna be a long next few days!


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    #1654
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z GFS and UKMO still indicating a cold spell next week. ECM will be interesting later.


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    #1655
    WheatenBriar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,170 ✭✭✭WheatenBriar


    Easterly Beasterly wrote: »
    [

    I always remember -8 uppers being the magic number for streamers back in 2010. Would the Irish Sea be colder in January though?

    Its complex, its actually the difference between the SST and that air way above that matters if you understand?
    Someone will be along to confirm sst's now versus 2010,I'm on my phone, but with clear summer skies out there all summer (unlike inland you'll remember) and with the recent warm weather, I'd be very surprised if Irish Sea SST's weren't higher than 2010
    Atlantic Sst's might be lower though
    The higher the sst and lower the uppers the better
    I don't want to clog this thread but hopefully if this trend continues,a darkman2 or whatever he goes by these days thread will appear? :D


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    #1656
    Saganist
    Registered Users Posts: 1,333 ✭✭✭Saganist


    If things are still looking like this in the next few days I think it's time to

    post-10773-0-57616600-1319394212.jpg

    :pac::pac:


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    #1657
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Can't remember if it was 2009 or 2010, but at the onset of the cold spell I do remember Irish Sea showers turning from rain/sleet to snow as soon as the uppers reached -7. Obviously it's not the only factor and this set up, if it happens, may favour northern rather than eastern areas, but it's too soon to look at that kind of detail.


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    #1658
    WheatenBriar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,170 ✭✭✭WheatenBriar


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Can't remember if it was 2009 or 2010, but at the onset of the cold spell I do remember Irish Sea showers turning from rain/sleet to snow as soon as the uppers reached -7. Obviously it's not the only factor and this set up, if it happens, may favour northern rather than eastern areas, but it's too soon to look at that kind of detail.

    Aye if it happens at all
    However a low to the east travelling south will eventually turn winds in from the Irish sea onto eastern areas
    Might be 1 day or several who knows but onshore in the east will bring showers into parts of the east and the charts in the FI thread would do that
    Question is will it be cold enough?

    Initially Ulster and north Connacht would get the works too,if you get me? And possibly more


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    #1659
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Anyone looked at sinking the Isle of Man yet? That shadow can drive ppl over the edge!


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    #1660
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,493 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Villain wrote: »
    Anyone looked at sinking the Isle of Man yet? That shadow can drive ppl over the edge!
    12z ECM looking very good. Showing plenty of cold and some snow opportunities too.
    Sorry didn't mean to quote you villain


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    #1661
    vistafinder
    Registered Users Posts: 619 ✭✭✭vistafinder


    Kermit… Kermit… Kermit!!!!! ?


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    #1662
    Easterly Beasterly
    Registered Users Posts: 209 ✭✭Easterly Beasterly


    Lads.. is anyone starting to believe we might have a decent shot here???


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    #1663
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,493 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    vistafinder wrote: »
    Kermit… Kermit… Kermit!!!!! ?
    He's busy drawing weather charts for ECM .


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    #1664
    clever user name
    Registered Users Posts: 537 ✭✭✭clever user name


    Easterly Beasterly wrote: »
    Lads.. is anyone starting to believe we might have a decent shot here???

    Still waiting to be let down :( But if the models on Friday look similar to what they are this evening then I'll be doing a snow dance.


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    #1665
    Calibos
    Registered Users Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Calibos


    vistafinder wrote: »
    Kermit… Kermit… Kermit!!!!! ?

    No sign of him. He's gone dark, man


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    #1666
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,245 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Not being a debbie downer but some of the charts I've seen just now are for a week away! Surely there's a big chance of these changing again....?!


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    #1667
    Clonmel1000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    clever user name wrote: »
    Still waiting to be let down :( But if the models on Friday look similar to what they are this evening then I'll be doing a snow dance.

    A decent shot of what though? Its January after the warmest December on record. Any significant drop in temperatures is going to seem cold relatively speaking. We are talking about Friday week? Very early days.


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    #1668
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Amazing deep FI on the 12Z ECM. Of course it'll be different again on the next run. But the odds of some kind of a cold spell next week are increasing as all three of the main models look pretty good at 144 hours, even though they aren't in exact agreement, the overall pattern is similar.


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    #1669
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Clonmel1000 wrote: »
    A decent shot of what though? Its January after the warmest December on record. Any significant drop in temperatures is going to seem cold relatively speaking. We are talking about Friday week? Very early days.

    Tonight's ECM has the cold over us by Monday. So more like 144 hours away. Also, unlike other phantom cold spells. This potential one has extremely broad cross model support. I have a good feeling about this now.


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    #1670
    Darwin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭Darwin


    leahyl wrote: »
    Not being a debbie downer but some of the charts I've seen just now are for a week away! Surely there's a big chance of these changing again....?!

    There's pretty good agreement amongst the big three models (UKMO, ECM, GFS) for a much colder hit of weather next week, and some interesting comments from various professional meteorologist on twitter. Of course it's too far out yet to nail the finer details regarding snowfall etc.


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    #1671
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    nao.sprd2_.gif

    ECH1-144.GIF.png

    220bb4ae9c6348f64fe9a133dc146e49.jpg


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    #1672
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,509 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    leahyl wrote: »
    Not being a debbie downer but some of the charts I've seen just now are for a week away! Surely there's a big chance of these changing again....?!

    Exactly Leahyl, I'm waiting for the short wave drama :( fingers crossed. At least it's going to get brighter and dryer which is great news.


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    #1673
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »
    Exactly Leahyl, I'm waiting for the short wave drama :( fingers crossed. At least it's going to get brighter and dryer which is great news.

    It certainly could downgrade and be a false start but plenty of signals towards something more like Winter coming, I wouldn't exactly scream Snowmageddon or anything close yet.

    Lets just enjoy the charts while we have them and dream of what may come :D


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    #1674
    WheatenBriar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,170 ✭✭✭WheatenBriar


    Has everyone noticed all the crazy northeasterlies on tonights Ecm and pondered how many roads it would close from Louth to Wexford? :D


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    #1675
    clever user name
    Registered Users Posts: 537 ✭✭✭clever user name


    WheatenBriar wrote: »
    Has everyone noticed all the crazy northeasterlies on tonights Ecm and pondered how many roads it would close from Louth to Wexford? :D

    What's even more amazing about the ECM is that there is no end in sight :cool:


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    #1676
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users Posts: 6,040 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    WheatenBriar wrote: »
    Has everyone noticed all the crazy northeasterlies on tonights Ecm and pondered how many roads it would close from Louth to Wexford? :D
    on the subject of northeasterlies look at the temps in Scandinavia.
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.gif


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    #1677
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    leahyl wrote: »
    Not being a debbie downer but some of the charts I've seen just now are for a week away! Surely there's a big chance of these changing again....?!

    Yes, further changes are inevitable. But the period up to around 120 hours looks fairly solid now, so some kind of cold spell looks pretty likely, but it could end up being downgraded by the time it arrives. Or upgraded.


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    #1678
    WheatenBriar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,170 ✭✭✭WheatenBriar


    Elmer Blooker wrote: »
    on the subject of northeasterlies look at the temps in Scandinavia.
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.gif

    Aye text book stuff,and do ya know it truly is the M1 motorway for snow delivery when it comes right and always has been with January being the best month to get it,that kind of deep cold air un stopped advecting down southwestwards across the Irish sea would see snow shower trains that would close Dublin Airport, gridlock the M50 and pile snow up the length of Euro route 1 from Newry to Rosslare,like Dec 2010,no doubt about it,if those synoptics panned out


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    #1679
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Getting on with my knitting here.....South Kerry mountains 400 asl


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    #1680
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users Posts: 6,040 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Knock (2c) colder than southern Greenland! (3c)
    WAA-y to go!!

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.gif


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    #1681
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Not sure if you want to start a dedicated snow thread or merge with the cold spell one? Anyways, I am surrounded by snow sifted mountains and I think others will be too at this height? I live 400 ask, South Kerry and the peaks I see will be a couple of hundred feet higher maybe..Dark heavy clouds gathering that do look like snow again.. will try to post the photos I took a while ago as it is much the same but I am a technical dunce and they are too big for here. Anyways we have SNOW!


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