Dublin Fingal General Election

The Hill Billy

Name-calling is for the playground - not a civil discussion in this forum. Either post in a civil manner or don't bother posting at all.

No more warnings - straight to a ban from now on if people insist on posting in an uncivil manner.

tHB

L1011

cowzerp wrote: »

the employment figures for example are counting all the jobsbridge people as employed

It doesn't.

There are also very few people actually on Jobbridge in the first place. They aren't counted on the live register, but underemployed people (part time seeking full time) are, so its a case of using the appropriate figures for the appropriate use. Live Register has issues, employment numbers have issues.

The 'alternative' position which relies on misery to campaign for votes is falling apart due to rising employment, recovering consumer sentiment etc. You can't continue to convince people that the country is screwed when they no longer feel or see it.

jwwb

L1011 wrote: »

The 'alternative' position which relies on misery to campaign for votes is falling apart due to rising employment, recovering consumer sentiment etc. You can't continue to convince people that the country is screwed when they no longer feel or see it.

2:1 - 43% think they are worse off than five years ago vs 21% think they are better off than five years ago. 37% think they are the same.

source: http://cf.broadsheet.ie/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/st2.jpg

dslamjack

I think for this election , it will be a case of better the divil ye know, as the most recent ''polls'' show FG/Lab @ 32% or so.
There will be continued erosion of the status quo political base of FG /FF/ Labour by SF and the Independents.
The ''new'' far left could be viewed by a nervous electorate as a throwback akin to the loony left council's of Britain in the 80/90's and out side of urban area's a total non runner.
If there were any justice , Fianna FAIL, should have been proscribed and disbanded as a political party(it would have left their ilk free to chase ,The Fast Buck they so cherished)in the very least they should along with Fine Gael should have been forced to merge to avail of official funding as they are basically two sides of the same coin,that have been splitting the popular electoral vote since the establishment of the state.
Sinn Fein is impressive as a political party , it has every thing ye would want ( apart from some who think Gerry and Martin should go and let the young one's get on with it), they appear to have cast iron discipline within , as well as very young bright astute potential Td's , a manifesto on par with any other party , as manifesto's go.
It is only a matter of time before Sinn Fein will form a majority government , they will in the interim form a coalition with one of the other stake holders , the roll of the electoral dice will dictate who or what form that government will take.
Will it be this election , I doubt it but never say never as they say.
Shane Ross's Independent's Alliance could grow at others expense and be perfectly placed to fill the boots of a coalition partner should the occasion arise.
Renua will I fear fall in to the shadow of the Greens and( pd's), I put the(pd's) in bracket's in case their vile ideology spread's.
In the case of Renua , people would be rightly worried that it would be another reworking of the combined mantra's of fg/ff/grn's and pd's,Renua will have to work hard to dispel these fear's in the electorate.
The Independent's hav't exactly exalted in glory(has anybody in either house) , but there again by their nature and position in the house how could they,their fate is ultimately decided on their merit's and by their track record of work and achievement by their own constituent's ,which is how it should be.
Also lest we forget , the people of this country were as bad as FF, we as a nation sold our own children's future's for few foreign holiday's and new cars , electric gate's on the dog's Italian tiled house, a hell of a lot of decking ,ohh , n don't forget the concrete eagle's and pillar's and the facia boards with icing on em.
People lost the total run of themselves , helicopter's to collect the auld take away or drop the sprog off at the 100,000/1m communion or wedding ''event''.
God save us, we where going to be the first nation on earth to send a block of appartment's in to space and if that weren't enought , we imposed appartment culture on such far flung destinations as Bulgaria ,Iceland etc to name but a few.
I remember saying at the time Bertie could have gone on the late late and shot a couple of kid's live on tv , and people would have said the kid's must have been up to some thing.
People (knew bloody well, what was going on in the country)but would or did not Want to know, even when all was well lost and gone , the nation put cowen +co in to try and keep the ''party'' going.
Hell at one stage in 2009 , Michael Martin was leading the leadership poll's(I kid ye not) what does that say about us.
At the height of the septic tiger , people were only short of digging up the dead (in pursuit of a fast buck) ,in deed the nun's below in Drumcondra did just that by the disinterment of their own late departed so that the land could be sold for a high priced housing development.
People condemned local council's/corporation's for not selling off their local housing stock at reduced market prices to the tennant , to ensure a huge mark up/ profit for the tenant when sold and we wonder why there is so many homeless now .
Rent supplement's were introduced to subsidise private business/landlord's ,even with our national scar's of previous landlordism , we as a nation ploughed on regardless.
So yes we are all as much to blame for what went on , the SAD part is , not one iota has changed since then, and have we learned , you bet we hav't and would we as a nation do it all again , YOU BET YA , were Irish after all.

L1011

jwwb wrote: »

2:1 - 43% think they are worse off than five years ago vs 21% think they are better off than five years ago. 37% think they are the same.

source: http://cf.broadsheet.ie/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/st2.jpg

Ask again after January pay cheques land.

We've got political parties trying to convince everyone its all doom and no improvement but the actual facts become hard to ignore

jwwb

L1011 wrote: »

Ask again after January pay cheques land.

We've got political parties trying to convince everyone its all doom and no improvement but the actual facts become hard to ignore

And you've political parties trying to convince you it's all great and everything is awesome.

L1011

jwwb wrote: »

And you've political parties trying to convince you it's all great and everything is awesome.

One of those viewpoints is a lot closer to what the economic indicators show, though.

cowzerp

L1011 wrote: »

Ask again after January pay cheques land.

We've got political parties trying to convince everyone its all doom and no improvement but the actual facts become hard to ignore

It's cynical, they are borrowing money just before the election to throw a few crumbs back at the people after robbing the whole slice pan to pretend things are on the up, The same happened the last election too.

The improvements are as usual mainly for the wealthy and barely any change for the poor, and it will all be took away as soon as people fall for the con and vote these that have screwed the people the last 4 years and looked after Denis O Brien and the elites while taking from the poorest, If they had any decency they would let the 19 Billion that the EU say Apple owe us to be paid and that would be a big help, clearly several other companies would be following suit and we could easily eliminate homelessness etc

let's not forget Fine Gael promised to get rid of the trolley scandal in hospitals and they have made it were you are lucky to get a trolley at all

The Homeless crisis is at it's worst in any of our lifetimes as is the suicide rates

Emigration of our young is worse than during the 80s and most that left have no hope of coming home as they will have no jobs to come back to

Kenny won't do any debates and only answers questions that he can get answers for in advance

Labour said Labours way or Frankfurts way and they backed all Frankfurts aims and turned on their voters and are the biggest traitor party i can ever remember, At least Fine Gael stood by their blue shirt fascist beginnings by not listening to the people on water charges even though the water charge campaign was the biggest resistance campaign in the history of the state, Kenny also said it was immoral to tax a man's home yet has no problem with the household tax but does have a problem making corporations pay the low tax that is available in this country, if you think it is acceptable that corporations are put ahead of the people of this country while they get made homeless and kill themselves then your priorities are all wrong, I'm alright Jack.

tobsey

What last election? The last election had an outgoing FF adminsitration who had implemented three austerity budgets in a row.

There were no improvements for the wealthy. Maybe slight reductions in CGT but the main reduction was in USC. The 7% rate which had the largest reduction kicked in after 18k per annum. Hardly wealthy at that level.

Apple do not owe Ireland 19 billion. They may have used Ireland as a funnel for those profits but if they really are liable for that tax they should be distributed to where the profits were made. At least Apple employ thousands in this country. There are shelf companies who employ nobody here using Ireland's tax arrangements to reduce their tax liability. Those types of companies should be tackled alright. The tech sector is one of the main drivers of economic growth. Their well paid employees are spending money in other sectors and further boosting employment.

Health has been a disaster. It was a disaster before they got in and it will still be a disaster in five years time regardless of who makes up the next government. It is a negative for FG and Labour though alright.

Housing crisis is being caused by landlords ramping up rents. A report came out yesterday that the main reason that families are made homeless us due to landlords raising rents. Is rent control the solution though? There aren't many places where it's been a success. Germany has been spoken of in regards to their rent controls but I've read that it hasn't worked out and their authorities are considering removing them.

That's a disgrace blaming the current government on suicide. The highest recorded level I could find was 554 in 2011, when the last government left and this one took over. The following year it was 504: http://nsrf.ie/statistics/suicide/

Most young people I know that emigrated did so out of choice. Some had good jobs. Perhaps if they had better prospect here they would have stayed. However employment is increasing so it's very likely there'll be work available here from them if they want to come back. It's funny that it's only the mammies and daddies left at home that complain about the emigration crises. You never hear complaints from the young Irish on Bondi Beach.

I don't care if Kenny doesn't often do live debates. I doubt he makes policy decisions in the heat of the moment so I don't see it as a requirement that he can debate with other party leaders. Martin is well known to be a good debater. That does not mean he'll be a good Taoiseach.

Labour got less than half the number of seats that FG did. You can't expect them to follow through on everything in their manifesto if they don't get an overall majority. Labour were the ones that proposed the Property Tax. That's one of the measures they brought to the coalition talks. FG brought water charges. I don't think Irish Water itself was handled in the best way but there's nothing wrong with charging for water. You want it, you pay for it. Also there's no way way out of them either. If you own a mansion but live offshore, that doesn't matter, you're still liable for water and property tax.

The country was in an absolute state when this government took over. They've given a tiny amount back to people in tax reductions because that's all we can afford. Their first few budgets were extremely austere, they did this in order to be able to give something back later. It was better to tear off the band-aid than peel it off slowly.

I think of all the options available that FG and Labour deserve another term to see what they'll do when the economy is in a reasonable state. FF should not be let near power again. SF I hope never do. The rest are only useful as an opposition and aren't a viable government.

L1011

cowzerp wrote: »

It's cynical, they are borrowing money just before the election to throw a few crumbs back at the people after robbing the whole slice pan to pretend things are on the up, The same happened the last election too.

Deficit next year is going to be significantly lower than this year.

You are aware that the "opposition"s proposed budgets would require far higher borrowing and are populist in the extreme?

cowzerp wrote: »

Emigration of our young is worse than during the 80s and most that left have no hope of coming home as they will have no jobs to come back to

Wrong on two counts. You might have been right in 2010, but both figures (emigration and total employment) have moved in the correct directions - down and up respectively - since then.

The politics of misery requires blindly pretending its still as bad as it was in 2010. Its not.

Arthur Daley

Only in Ireland is it 'austerity' to spend billions more than you collect in taxes. Jesus you'd love to send the anti austerity alliance, people before profit, Ruth coppinger, Paul Murphy etc. back to the 40s or 50s to see what the term austerity means. Seriously it's the most misused term in politics in the last decade.

Borrowing from the future to pay for the largesse of today is the real crime. This government has brought the deficit down at long last.

cowzerp

Fine Gael promised to burn the bondholders, instead they made the debts sovereign debts that we cannot burn, Emigration might be slowing but that's because the massive amount who left over the last few years, the government ignored the homeless crisis in the budget and should have put in rental caps and made empty house be opened and uses, but half the Dail are landlords so stand to lose if the fake housing bubble drops, keeping house prices high benefits the wealthy who can charge more rent etc

No matter what way you look at it, Fine Gael and Labour are proven liars, they lied to get into power and have refused to debate with the public since and don't even answer the elected opposition td's questions in the dail, It is quite scary that people on here find that acceptable.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=523FLk2126g

contract for Safer streets (guards to busy getting involved in civil disputes that are not their business)
health services that work, (Worst trolley crisis in the history of the state)
end of government wasting your money (Irish water, if all pay it covers the cost of them billing people only)
Government transparency (Does everything in his power to cover up questions asked, notably those about Tax exile Denis o Brien who got contracts under suspicious means)
This man has broke all his promises and said he will not run again if he doesn't fulfil these promises

tobsey

cowzerp wrote: »

Fine Gael promised to burn the bondholders, instead they made the debts sovereign debts that we cannot burn, Emigration might be slowing but that's because the massive amount who left over the last few years, the government ignored the homeless crisis in the budget and should have put in rental caps and made empty house be opened and uses, but half the Dail are landlords so stand to lose if the fake housing bubble drops, keeping house prices high benefits the wealthy who can charge more rent etc

No matter what way you look at it, Fine Gael and Labour are proven liars, they lied to get into power and have refused to debate with the public since and don't even answer the elected opposition td's questions in the dail, It is quite scary that people on here find that acceptable.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=523FLk2126g

contract for Safer streets (guards to busy getting involved in civil disputes that are not their business)
health services that work, (Worst trolley crisis in the history of the state)
end of government wasting your money (Irish water, if all pay it covers the cost of them billing people only)
Government transparency (Does everything in his power to cover up questions asked, notably those about Tax exile Denis o Brien who got contracts under suspicious means)
This man has broke all his promises and said he will not run again if he doesn't fulfil these promises

If anyone thinks any of the other parties will deliver all they are currently promising then they are naive in the extreme.

dslamjack

Aye indeed , party manifesto's should never be taken orally and if after reading the symptons persist ,consult your local bar tender or taxi man immediately for advice.
I mean ye have more chance of wining the lotto and having Lord Lucan personally deliver the cheque riding Shergar than believing a word out of anybody in Dail Eireann (when they bother to attend) , the green bin and delete button is also great when dealing with any correspondence from them especially pre election nonsense and the like.

L1011

cowzerp wrote: »

Emigration might be slowing but that's because the massive amount who left over the last few years,

No, its because of the massive increase in employment. There's also significant numbers returning.

Continue trying to convince yourself everything is dire if you want, though. Reality doesn't match your views.

If you believe one of the random acronym-parties that have appeared from nowhere and don't understand how maths works are going to keep their frankly ludicrous "promises" that'll plunge the state in to a major deficit, you've got trust issues.

handlemaster

cowzerp wrote: »

Anyone who votes for FF, FG, Labour, The Greens or Renua which are just FG Rejects are fools, it's time to get rid of politicians who prioritise banks and corporates over the people they are meant to be working for, The banks got bailed out, we got sold out.

You Forgot the Irish water chant. . And free houses for all...

cowzerp

L1011 wrote: »

No, its because of the massive increase in employment. There's also significant numbers returning.

Complete and utter fabricated figures, Counting Jobsbridge and people who are not even making a living wage, Increase in Homeless and soup kitchens would be more honest.

L1011 wrote: »

If you believe one of the random acronym-parties that have appeared from nowhere and don't understand how maths works are going to keep their frankly ludicrous "promises" that'll plunge the state in to a major deficit, you've got trust issues.

Sinn Fein have a very solid financial plan which stops screwing the working and middle classes and get's the money from the more well off and the corporations etc. but let's not let propaganda from FG and Labour get in the way of the truth

http://issuu.com/sinnfeinireland/docs/pre-budget_october2015_web_f2e26f3a9b6c30 all in black and white!

tobsey

cowzerp wrote: »

Complete and utter fabricated figures, Counting Jobsbridge and people who are not even making a living wage, Increase in Homeless and soup kitchens would be more honest.

Budget 2015 reduced income tax. Income Tax returns in 2015 are higher than 2014. Either working people got pay rises or more people are working and paying income tax. Either way it's a sign that employee's conditions are improving.

The methods that are used for generating statistics on employment are standard and publicly known. If Sinn Fein got into power the figures would still be gathered in the same way.

Joe prim

martinn123 wrote: »

I wonder if he will park that Eco/Bio Diesel jeep, up by the M1 exit at lissenhall again, with his name all over it.
Should be about 20 miles put up on it since the last Election.

It's a great tactic, I always like to vote for someone with their name written on a jeep ( and the bio/eco factor is a bonus)

handlemaster

cowzerp wrote: »

Complete and utter fabricated figures, Counting Jobsbridge and people who are not even making a living wage, Increase in Homeless and soup kitchens would be more honest.



Sinn Fein have a very solid financial plan which stops screwing the working and middle classes and get's the money from the more well off and the corporations etc. but let's not let propaganda from FG and Labour get in the way of the truth

http://issuu.com/sinnfeinireland/docs/pre-budget_october2015_web_f2e26f3a9b6c30 all in black and white!

I actually had to reread the last paragraph I was honestly looking for the punch line . The fact its a statement of fact by the poster is even more funny. That money tree politics has no bearing in reality. The "more well off" who are these people ? I can tell you anybody with millions would be gone from the country if this fairytale party were to get in.

tobsey

handlemaster wrote: »

I actually had to reread the last paragraph I was honestly looking for the punch line . The fact its a statement of fact by the poster is even more funny. That money tree politics has no bearing in reality. The "more well off" who are these people ? I can tell you anybody with millions would be gone from the country if this fairytale party were to get in.

550 million additional revenue from people earning over 100k. That's half of their plan for additional taxes. if you earn 100k you're paying 40k in income tax as it is. Anything earned above 100k would be taxed at 57%. Why would you bother when you're already paying the same amount of income tax as 7 people at the average industrial wage. 100k earners are paying there share already.

What is stopping people who support these proposals from increasing their own income? Why do they expect people who work harder than them pay for their services?

L1011

cowzerp wrote: »

Complete and utter fabricated figures, Counting Jobsbridge and people who are not even making a living wage, Increase in Homeless and soup kitchens would be more honest.

As already explained to you, you are vastly incorrect here. You chose to refuse to accept this as it doesn't match the view you've decided to stick to.

Employment figures are up, massively. These do not count Jobbridge, as explained to you already

Income tax revenues are up, massively. Income tax only kicks in when you are earning approximately 18,000 a year. As said above, if you want to believe there's been no or only tiny increases in employment you're going to have to delude yourself that everyone in work has had huge payrises - which would lead to huge inflation, which we haven't had.

cowzerp wrote: »

Sinn Fein have a very solid financial plan which stops screwing the working and middle classes and get's the money from the more well off and the corporations etc. but let's not let propaganda from FG and Labour get in the way of the truth

http://issuu.com/sinnfeinireland/docs/pre-budget_october2015_web_f2e26f3a9b6c30 all in black and white!

Sinn Fein's financial plan would leave the state in a massive deficit as their costings do not make sense You can write down whatever voodoo economics you want "in black and white" and it doesn't make it valid.

Look 100 miles north to see how competent they are in balancing the books (they're not).

You have been sucked in by Sinn Fein voodoo economics and promises that they'll screw "the rich" to give you the sun and moon. You might be surprised to find out that you could very easily be one of "the rich", for starters. That you consider actual CSO facts to be propaganda and believe the witterings of an economically illiterate party who have proven themselves to be unable to govern next door shows how much you've been bought by them.

handlemaster

I think the last post says alot. SF were given the keys to the Kingdom up North qnd look where they are now !

ThunbergsAreGo

tobsey wrote: »

550 million additional revenue from people earning over 100k. That's half of their plan for additional taxes. if you earn 100k you're paying 40k in income tax as it is. Anything earned above 100k would be taxed at 57%. Why would you bother when you're already paying the same amount of income tax as 7 people at the average industrial wage. 100k earners are paying there share already.

What is stopping people who support these proposals from increasing their own income? Why do they expect people who work harder than them pay for their services?

It would lead to a serious brain drain within our economy. Would be so dangerous, and wouldnt surprise me if alot of the big employers reconsidered their positions

martinn123

[URL="[IMG]http://i63.tinypic.com/2ujnuhf.png[/IMG]"][/URL]

Latest odds from PP.

Interesting that Reilly is odds on, while Farrell is 15/8, I would have seen it as the opposite given Reilly's recent demotion, and his apparent lack of standing within the party.

The Hill Billy

Those odds for James Reilly seem well off!

Also, I'm surprised that SF had to parachute in a candidate from Crumlin to the constituency. I would have thought that they would have had a few politically-savvy locals to do the business for them by now.

jwwb

or fillees from Dublin Bay South.

mahoganygas

Reilly stood up to the bible thumpers in FG over the weekend.

I reckon that has won him a lot of votes.

jwwb

martinn123 wrote: »

[URL="[IMG]http://i63.tinypic.com/2ujnuhf.png[/IMG]"][/URL]

Latest odds from PP.

Interesting that Reilly is odds on, while Farrell is 15/8, I would have seen it as the opposite given Reilly's recent demotion, and his apparent lack of standing within the party.

Interesting how odds change over 24h, presume it's in response to money being put down by people who may know something (or not)

Daly 1/25
D O'Brien 1/9
Reilly 1/6
Ryan 1/5
O'Reilly 2/5
Farrell 6/4
Murphy 15/8
Clifford-Lee 6/1
J O'Brien 6/1
Kelleher 10/1
Martin 12/1
Fuller 50/1

martinn123

Oh Dear,

That SF candidate Louise O'Reilly came a cropper on RTE today.
She refused to condemn the murder of Garda Gerry McCabe, and attempted to liken it to an act during a war, instead of a Post Office robbery by thugs.
Scratch her chances, I would put her at 5/1 now, stupid mistake.
FG are retweeting loads of adverse tweets followings this Gaff.