Dublin Fingal General Election

dslamjack

A new Paddy Power/Red C poll suggests Fine Gael is down one point in recent weeks, with support for Labour slipping by two since Sunday.
More worrying perhaps for Enda Kenny and Joan Burton, election rivals Fianna Fáil are up by one and support for Sinn Féin remains unchanged.
The details of the poll were announced on RTÉ's Today with Sean O'Rourke earlier today.
The findings show Fine Gael at 30 pc, Labour at 8 pc, Fianna Fáil at 18 pc, Sinn Féin on 17 pc, Green Party 2 pc (no change) and Independents/ Others at 25 pc, up by two points.
The figures are sure to disappoint Labour as the party has dropped back from the 10 pc support recorded in the most recent Red C polls.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/election2016/election2016-latest/latest-poll-shows-movement-in-party-power-719916.html

jwwb

Breakout of Dublin polling numbers based on last 3 polls from here
FG 27%
FF 11
SF 17
Ind 16
Lab 11
AAA-PBP 8
Green 3
SD 4
Renua 1

Walter H Price

will be Renua,Fine Gael and Labor 1,2,3 & 4 for me

I've no time for independent's and the looney left alliance before profit or what ever their calling themselves this week, Sin Fein or any other coed that think the solution to all the ills of the country are the cause of "elites" or the 1%, give it a rest lads.

Probably wont give Fianna Fail a vote this time , i don't know if i could trust hem not to sell their souls to Uncle Gerry, to get back in to government but at the same time a Fine Gael Finna Fail coalition would be an improvement on Fine Gael / Labor and the most stable government based on the polls, but could Martain , Kenny and O'Dev suck it up and leave the civil war stuff in the past ? i just don't know.

I would have voted Fine Gael 1 and 2 but i don't have much time for Reilly or Farrell.

Michael8000

Latest odds from Paddy Power

Singer

Michael8000 wrote: »

Latest odds from Paddy Power

I think that looks about right for me. 1 x FG, 1 x Lab, 1 x FF, Clare Daly to top the poll. Last seat will be very interesting - SF will suffer with transfers as ever, Daly could transfer a lot to Martin, but will probably transfer more to SF, but Farrell is strong in some areas. It'll be neck and neck between Louise O'Reilly and Alan Farrell for the last seat.

Anybody else willing to predict?

dslamjack

Well I see talk again this evening about a FG/FF coalition,I've said here before, FF should have been proscribed for what they did,and I'm being terribly polite in saying that.
They should tie the knot and get hitched permanently,their both side's of the side coin,they have effectively split and stymied the electoral process since the foundation of the state.
It's the equivalent of the USA having 2 republican parties,imagine that,2 Donald Trump's,save us all and his holy mammy and daddy.
This election is turning out like an political Lidl/Aldi special's offer bonanza on steroid's, the usual gruesome twosome , Joan as Cinderella, a rainbow of indo's, red's in the bed,pinko lib's, neo lib's,the far right,left of right,right of right,singing Td's,some band called the alphabet's AAA/PBP
(American tv station's I think),the none too sure,and the green's..they would,we're only short of the people's front of Judea or the Judean's people's front.
All we need now to rightly round it off is for the political wing of the Daniel O'Donnell fan club to get involved.
This is the best election in year's/ever,and we're only in the slow set's/smooching stage yet,can't wait to see who win's and is left standing in this year's gala political come dancing finale.
YEP the real dirt has't even started,give it another day or 2, the great thing about being Irish is there's always some one ready,just like the Sunday night row in the local,to put the boot in,stir it up ,throw the auld hand grenade over the wall and see what happen's... It's Gonna be Tropic

jwwb

Michael8000 wrote: »

Latest odds from Paddy Power

Odds on to elect 6 TDs in a 5 seater

dslamjack

JW,I'm an ex minister for finance , so I can't add or do sum's or have a bank account,so I'm gonna take your word for it.
Right,can someone put me wide here about Labour,what exactly have they done so wrong as we'd never mention any thing they could have done right.
All right ,in my book,they should have walked just on the mention of Irish Water,let alone when Henda and Mick got all stupid over it,they had't one ball between them when it came to sorting Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas,let alone the Troika.
Any way ,Labour being the minority partner in government,was never going to come out smelling of rose's.I mean they definitely can't be blamed for the flood's,where as FG/FF definitely Can,they both had successive year's of government that did absolutely nothing to address the issue(and these were their own core grass root's voter's)the same folk who will blindly vote for them again and again.
FG rightly shafted them with Alan Kelly put in environment,they should have committed Harry Kiri there and then.
Poor auld Alan took the rap for ,Irish Water,homelessness,the Flood's,waste management,local government(or the lack of),it's a wonder he's not being blamed for the disappearance of Shergar.
Maybe if he got Garth Brook's 14 night's in Croker,he's win the election outright and put Joan in that canoe on the Shannon with out a paddle.
Have to go, have an awfull GOO this morning for a good auld Chuck Wagon,cya later

jwwb

https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/index.php/8-general-information/7-nominated-candidates-2016-dublin-fingal

DÁIL GENERAL ELECTION 2016
CONSTITUENCY OF DUBLIN FINGAL

The following candidates have been nominated to date to stand in this constituency.

FARRELL FINE GAEL
(Alan Farrell, of 42 Biscayne, Malahide, Co. Dublin
Public Representative)


Photograph
REILLY FINE GAEL
(James Reilly, of Seafoam, South Shore Road, Rush, Co. Dublin
Doctor)


Photograph
CLIFFORD-LEE FIANNA FÁIL
(Lorraine Clifford-Lee, of 49 Greenview, Seabrook Manor, Portmarnock, Co. Dublin
Solicitor)


Photograph
FULLER NON PARTY
(Roslyn Fuller, of 13 Bissett's Loft, Strand Street, Malahide, Co. Dublin
Jurist)


Photograph
MURPHY NON PARTY
(Tony Murphy, of 22A Drogheda Street, Balbriggan, Co. Dublin
Public Representative)


Photograph
DE BRUN NON PARTY
(Dr. Marcus De Brun, of 6A Main Street, Rush, Co. Dublin
General Practitioner)


Photograph
MOLLOY RENUA IRELAND
(Dr. Gerry Molloy, of Ivy Grange, The Hill, Malahide, Co. Dublin
Medical Doctor)


Photograph
KELLEHER ANTI AUSTERITY ALLIANCE - PEOPLE BEFORE PROFIT
(Terry Kelleher, of 9 Hillside Close, Skerries, Co. Dublin
Clerical)


Photograph
O'BRIEN GREEN PARTY/COMHAONTAS GLAS
(Joe O'Brien, of 63 Mourne View, Skerries, Co. Dublin
Integration Outreach Officer)


Photograph
RYAN THE LABOUR PARTY
(Brendan Ryan, of Baltrasna, Skerries, Co. Dublin
Public Representative)


Photograph
O'BRIEN FIANNA FÁIL
(Darragh O'Brien, of 49 Galtrim Grange, Malahide, Co. Dublin
Public Representative)


Photograph
DALY INDEPENDENTS 4 CHANGE
(Clare Daly, of 21 Elmwood Drive, Swords, Co. Dublin
Airport Worker)


Photograph
MARTIN INDEPENDENTS 4 CHANGE
(Barry Martin, of 15 Kenure Lawns, Rush, Co. Dublin
Public Representative)


Photograph
O'REILLY SINN FÉIN
(Louise O'Reilly, of 7 Swords Manor Shopping Centre, Brackenstown Road, Swords, Co. Dublin
Trade Union Official)


Photograph
O'CONNELL NON PARTY
(Fergal O'Connell, of 123 Creston Avenue, St. Margaret's Road, Finglas, Dublin 11
Not Working)


Photograph not provided

martinn123

Singer wrote: »

I think that looks about right for me. 1 x FG, 1 x Lab, 1 x FF, Clare Daly to top the poll. Last seat will be very interesting - SF will suffer with transfers as ever, Daly could transfer a lot to Martin, but will probably transfer more to SF, but Farrell is strong in some areas. It'll be neck and neck between Louise O'Reilly and Alan Farrell for the last seat.

Anybody else willing to predict?

If the Polls are correct, it could be a problem for FG, with two candidates.
Last time round with the massive swing from FF to others, Reilly had a surplus which got Farrell over the line.
This time if the FG vote is split locally, i.e North of the Area, voting for Reilly, and Malahide, Swords, Portmarnock etc going for their local man Farrell, neither could be in a good position after the first count.

Then it will depend on who gets eliminated, neither will gain from transfers from the smaller parties,
so if Daly tops the poll, Ryan gets in early, followed by O'Brien, we could have a dog fight for the last two seats.
Personally I think FG are overestimating their support, and it could back-fire.

dslamjack

Again on Crime, why we need the like's of this ..http://www.breakingnews.ie/showbiz/inside-the-worlds-toughest-prison-twitter-couldnt-believe-how-tough-things-were-in-poland-compared-to-the-uk-720212.html

For the like's of this...http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/three-prison-officers-hurt-as-irelands-most-dangerous-inmate-tries-to-attack-jail-governor-34447133.html and this ...http://www.thejournal.ie/stolen-car-rammed-garda-jailed-2586926-Feb2016/

P.s look at the sentence, the psycho nut got,while out on bail.

dslamjack

I think I answered my own question on Labour above,but Martin I think you are right about the last 2 seat's, Sinn Fein could swing a seat,actually the permutation's that could come about at this stage,would probably out do what ye would need to win the lotto.
Looking at the County map http://www.fingalcoco.ie/customer-service/interactivemapoffingal/ and dividing it from Ballymun in the south to the Naul in the north,looking at the mix of population of rural verus urban,I think it must have one of the most interesting voting configurations in the electoral race.

mickmmc

James Reilly (FG) is taking nothing for granted.

In the North County Leader a few weeks back, James Reilly is quoted as saying that there was only 1 FG seat in Fingal in the forthcoming election.

The 2 FG candidates have not divided up the constituency this time; James Reilly is only interested in getting himself elected (IMO).

I doubt Alan Farrell TD will be re-elected.

Louise O' Reilly SF should be elected.

TDs to be elected:

Clare Daly
Daragh O' Brien FF
James Reilly FG
Louise O' Reilly SF
Brendan Ryan Lab

RobFowl

mickmmc wrote: »

James O' Reilly FG

Its just plain James Reilly

Tend to agree with prediction btw, last seat a dog fight between SF, Farrell and possibly Murphy.

In many ways depends on transfers and on who gets eliminated.
Murphy if goes out late will transfer heavily to Farrell (and vice versa).

SF's main problem as ever is lack of transfers

rubberdiddies

With such a swing against Labour across the country, any ideas why Brendan Ryan is predicted to get a seat in Fingal?

Bigcheeze

rubberdiddies wrote: »

With such a swing against Labour across the country, any ideas why Brendan Ryan is predicted to get a seat in Fingal?

Apparently he has a big personal vote in the northern end of the constituency. I can tell you we only ever hear of him once every five years in the southern end.

Don't think I've ever heard the guy speak.

I think Farrell has a chance as a) he has reasonably high media profile for a back bench TD and speaks in the dail. Although sometimes he seems to be official government spokesperson for "unpopular stuff"

and b) the closer to polling day it will dawn on people that they're electing a government and this will help fg.

And c) someone mentioned fg split vote but there's a lot more loony left fragmentation in this constituency between Daly, SF and others. FF have also moved to the left and have a strong high profile candidate

dslamjack

Indeed,Alan Farrell regularly post's here on the NCD forum on various topic's,and it would be the job of junior Td's to break bad news and the unpopular stuff.
Brendan Ryan has the reputation of a hard working Td,that get's thing's done for constituent's,when prevailed upon at his clinic's.His brother Sean was very well respected by people,never moved from Portrane to live the high life,like the grandee squire's of FF.
24 hour's is a long time in politic's,and me auld granny used to say eaten bread is soon forgotten,this certainly applies to FF,the Irish electorate have the memory span of the time it take's to sip a pint and put,what was I saying,,,O yes it beggar's belief,at this stage so soon after the crash,that the electorate could consider FF worthy of being in a position to form or potentially shape the next government,the mind boggle's it surely does.
Why not bring Mary n the PD'S and Green's back and be done with it and according to Messrs Martin+Co ,ex FF minister's could be recalled to the cabinet,if FF get to form the next government,,,will Bertie have to open a bank account this time round,to get his ministerial pension paid in too.
We have a loony left that is as nutty as a warehouse full of Cadbury's Fruit n Nut,but which seem's to extol all the virtue's of 1930's Nazi Boot boy's and the Ku Klux Klan ,when it come's to staging political demonstration's ,as was witnessed by the disgusting scene's of a baying left wing mob's hounding the Taoiseach through the street's of Cork yesterday and other politician's and their families being threatened,by brain dead moron's who probably couldn't even spell democracy.
We can only hope that when this election is over ,this lamentable shower of bovver boy's will revert back to the gutter from where they came,because all they bring to their own''cause'' and the electoral process is shame,violence,ignorance and disgust,none of which have any place in a modern political election in a modern democracy ,any place ,any where.
Especially in a year where our state commemorate's the sacrifice's of the brave Volunteer's of 1916,to which they gave their noble live's in order for us to enjoy the freedom and democracy we so cherish today,how was it that old saying that goes --"Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it."

dslamjack

I keep forgetting. the date of the election general election will take place on Friday, 26 February 2016. The members of the 32nd Dáil will meet on Thursday, 10 March 2016 to elect a Taoiseach to head the Government of the 32nd Dáil.

ERRR, just in time to disappear off for the Paddy's Day junket's, can't help it,just have to have a dig.

dslamjack

Sinn Féin the big winners in new poll...A new opinion poll has shown a five-point swing against the Coalition in around four days of campaigning.
The Red C poll for tomorrow's Sunday Business Post shows Sinn Féin support up three points in a week, while Fine Gael is down 2%.
The poll of 1,008 adults was carried out between Monday and Thursday of this week, the first full week of campaigning.
It shows Fine Gael support at 28%, down by two points compared to a similar poll published midweek and down 3% since another one last weekend.
Labour meanwhile are unchanged at 8%, meaning the Coalition is some distance short of being returned with a majority.
Sinn Féin are the big winners, up three points to 20%, although that change is within the margin of error. Fianna Fáil are unchanged on 18%.
Independent candidates are on 16%, with the Social Democrats on 4%, the AAA/People Before Profit on 3%, the Greens on 2% and Renua on 1%.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/revealed-taoiseachs-plan-to-return-coalition-to-power-takes-major-hammering-34450846.html

Dizzyblonde

dslamjack wrote: »

Sinn Féin the big winners in new poll...

I find that quite shocking - I've always felt they wouldn't get a foothold until after my generation had more or less died out. We remember the Troubles too well.

dslamjack

Yes D I agree,it's equally as shocking as the FF poll figure's.
But we are dealing with a generation that are living their live's walking around looking at their hand's,and unless some thing appear's on snapchat,facebook ,social media etc it bear's or has no credible effect on their live's at all,God help them.
They are the first real generation that will live their entire live's thru a screen.
Most of this new generation will not remember the winner of the last X Factor or last week's Celebrity big thick competition,they will only need the ability to retain the information about their last communication,all other information will be cloud based on demand.
Most of them will have to be psycho buzzed(a chip in the brain by then,no doubt)that their impending death is in 10-9-8.
Maybe if the election was retitled ,Celebrity Political Big Bro n Sis and done entirely on social media,I was joking,but actually we'll probably see elections going down this path in our time.
Anyhoo as I said yesterday,eaten bread is soon forgotten,and as long as their is this national obsession of parish pump politics and ''what have ye done for me lately'' mentality continue's,I can't see any reason for thing's to change in the immediate future,ye only have to look to north Tipp to see that.

Tropheus

It's hard to see anyone go into coalition with SF. They are still toxic and will be for most people until Gerry, Martin and their ilk step aside. They may get more seats than FF (I'd doubt it), but FG would much rather go into a coalition with FF than SF.

If, in the unlikely event, SF did get into Government. I would sit back and watch their supporters become more and more disillusioned as they fail to deliver on almost every election promise they've made. Their policies all cost and they give very little detail as to how they would be funded.

It will gall me to see a SF TD in Fingal especially one who doesn't even come from the area.

dslamjack

The real problem is as I have said above,is FG/FF splitting the main popular electoral base,that is the real problem with our electoral system.
In fairness to Labour,they have never been given a clear mandate by the electorate,like else where in Europe and in the UK.
I can't ever remember any junior Government partner in coalition,ever doing well at the poll's after an involvement in coalition.
There in lies the answer and the reason why we now have a huge loony left contingent,the Irish people don't want a truly left wing ,socialist,labour government,it's in bred in to our national being.
Like when the brother's would batter ya for being left handed,the church always denounced any thing on the left as being the work of the devil and worse still the anti catholic commies.
No the church was never any friend of the left leaning trade union movement or their political manifestation's,you only have to look at what happened to Dr Noel Browne(a national hero) and his mother and child scheme.
Right wing conservative parties, are exactly that,just like the conservatives in the UK and the Republican's in the US, no friend of the average working person.
Their dysfunctional attempt's to appear to be benevolent socialist caring champion's of the working mass's lead's us in to the repetitive mess of boom and bust politic's we see and have to endure.
Sinn Fein are the epitome of the uber efficent modern political party,Gerry and Martin and the old guard need to retire before the next election.
Their role was to establish SF as a serious political party in the 26 counties and this they have more than achieved.
It is no accident that so many of the SF candidate's etc are under 30 year's of age,their tactic's and vote management are superb,they will grow seat's this election,and more importantly will continue to grow,the more the main body politic put the boot in.
Indeed, the more the press and main stream parties put the boot in,the greater their appeal will be to the younger voter and disaffected youth in particular.
Like the surely adolescent ye try to lecture on righteousness and the need to abstain and refrain,the more they will rebel and want to tear down the status quo,that's human nature.
Yep the more thing's change the more they stay the same,it's a funny auld world,I never thought the world was the same way after that Bobby Ewing got out of the shower and told Pam she way dreaming.... No it was never the same after that ,and do't get me going about when Rock Hudson kissed Krystle ... Ahh well .. Chuck Wagon time again ....

mahoganygas

dslamjack wrote:

But we are dealing with a generation that are living their live's walking around looking at their hand's,and unless some thing appear's on snapchat,facebook ,social media etc it bear's or has no credible effect on their live's at all,God help them. They are the first real generation that will live their entire live's thru a screen.

The irony of posting this on boards seems to be lost on you.

You can call it meaningful debate all you want, but your posts are beginning to look at lot like spam on this thread.

I've wanted to engage you in debate on some of the many topics you are bringing up here. And they are important and interesting topics. But I simply can't keep up with you. You keep changing direction. That's the benefit of social media I suppose.

dslamjack

Originaly posted by Mahogany gas ..Quote:
Originally Posted by dslamjack
But we are dealing with a generation that are living their live's walking around looking at their hand's,and unless some thing appear's on snapchat,facebook ,social media etc it bear's or has no credible effect on their live's at all,God help them. They are the first real generation that will live their entire live's thru a screen.
The irony of posting this on boards seems to be lost on you.

You can call it meaningful debate all you want, but your posts are beginning to look at lot like spam on this thread.

I've wanted to engage you in debate on some of the many topics you are bringing up here. And they are important and interesting topics. But I simply can't keep up with you. You keep changing direction. That's the benefit of social media I suppose..
mahogany gas

The irony of posting this on boards seems to be lost on you ... No it was't.
Meaningful Debate?, their's very little of that on social media,in any way these day's as I try to recover from serious illness-I hope,I take every thing in life with a large pinch of salt and a good dose of Andrews liver salt's.
Being unable to work at present, I have time on my hand's to post,it keep's me occupied mentally in a weird sort of way--never did like crossword's or puzzle book's,if my post's appear like spam,what can ya doo as Del Boy used to say.
If I was working I would have little time for social media except as a form of light relief or entertainment,and in all reality look at the neighbouring thread on the Cock Tavern or the eating out thread,and the amount of view's to see people's real priority's.
Social media is like the truth or fact's or the good book,people will take what they like too see and make what they will of it and leave the rest.
At the end of the day,social media is a tool,and like a gun,as good or as bad as the person using it,having said that do I take social media seriously ,most of the time No , some of the time Yes and if I keep changing direction,then that is the ultimate use and benefit of social media I suppose.

jwwb

Government after next election is going to be FG and FF everything going on at the moment is like wrestlers trash talking for the cameras while the outcome is well rehearsed.

Don't think the sky is going to fall with SF getting TDs elected. I'm not surprised. The door was left open for them by this and previous governments. Any Buffy fans will know that you don't invite vampires into your home.

dslamjack

Lordy JW ,what a gruesome two sum,and if it does come about,they'll deserve each other,
Man O Man,the thought of henda and mickeline playing patti cake's and dancing thru the daffodil's up to the Arras,give's me the jibbley's ,still trying to get over big Ger dancing at the crossroad's last week... had to go to the Top Shop after that,me throat flared up something awful after it..we'll be looking at that on reeling in the year's in the future no doubt.

billyhead

Just out of curiosity if FF and FG make up the next government what would happen to the water charges?

Bigcheeze

billyhead wrote: »

Just out of curiosity if FF and FG make up the next government what would happen to the water charges?

Some sort of fudge.

Amazing that people get worked up about water charges yet when VAT went from 21% to 23% nobody said a word, which costs everyone, regardless of income, a hell of a lot more than water charges.

Dizzyblonde

Would a FF/FG coalition be so bad? We don't have any other strong parties and they might just keep each other in check. Anyway, I'd rather of have that than a load of Independents who don't know the first thing about how to run a country (Mick Wallace springs to mind!)

Regardless of who gets in, water charges are a necessary evil in my opinion.