Match Thread: Ireland v Wales [2.30pm 29/08/15 Aviva Stadium] Guinness Series

wittycynic

Our twenty year unbeaten run in Cardiff; the sacking of Gatland; the dropping of the Lion King, BOD Almighty; the scuppering of our Grandslam in Cardiff this year; those five minutes where they seemed to want out of the Pro 12; Rhys Ruddock; Rhys Ruddock's dad.

Yes friends, the long and storied rugby histories of our two nations have frequently intersected to produce many dramatic and memorable moments. But while the tension of 2009's Grandslam showdown in Cardiff will, for many, be remembered as a seminal episode in the saga of Irish-Welsh football, the emotions its recalling stir surely pale in comparison to the passions evoked by another sporting product of our two proud nations:



Born to Irish parents but raised in Wales, Connacht scrum-half, Kieran Marmion, found himself to be the almost sole focus of this week's pre-match speculation. With all the fervour of Moon Landing conspiracy theorists, Marmion's supporters and detractors combed through what seeming evidence could be pieced together to elucidate their theories on who would occupy the doubtlessly crucial berths of Ireland's third and fourth choice number 9 upon the naming of our World Cup Squad. With neither appearing in this week's 23, it would seem that the question is settled, with the veteran from the land of the long white cloud surely now set to claim a seat on the plane in Marmion's stead.

The Teams
Ireland
15. Rob Kearney (UCD/Leinster)
14. Dave Kearney (Lansdowne/Leinster)
13. Luke Fitzgerald (Blackrock College/Leinster)
12. Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Connacht)
11. Keith Earls (Young Munster/Munster)
10. Jonathan Sexton (St. Mary's College/Leinster)
9. Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster)
1. Jack McGrath (St. Mary's College/Leinster)
2. Richardt Strauss (Old Wesley/Leinster)
3. Nathan White (Connacht)
4. Iain Henderson (Ballynahinch/Ulster)
5. Paul O'Connell (Young Munster/Munster) (capt)
6. Peter O'Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster)
7. Jordi Murphy (Lansdowne/Leinster)
8. Jamie Heaslip (Dublin University/Leinster)

Replacements:
16. Sean Cronin (St. Mary's College/Leinster)
17. Dave Kilcoyne (UL Bohemians/Munster)
18. Tadhg Furlong (Clontarf/Leinster) *
19. Donnacha Ryan (Shannon/Munster)
20. Sean O'Brien (UCD/Leinster)
21. Eoin Reddan (Old Crescent/Leinster)
22. Paddy Jackson (Dungannon/Ulster)
23. Felix Jones (Shannon/Munster)
* Denotes uncapped player

Wales
15. Leigh Halfpenny (Toulon)
14. Alex Cuthbert (Cardiff Blues)
13. Scott Williams (Scarlets)
12. Jamie Roberts (Harlequins)
11. George North (Northampton Saints)
10. Dan Biggar (Ospreys)
9. Rhys Webb (Ospreys)
1. Gethin Jenkins (Cardiff Blues)
2. Ken Owens (Scarlets)
3. Tomas Francis (Exeter Chiefs)*
4. Bradley Davies (Wasps)
5. Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys) (capt)
6. Dan Lydiate (Ospreys)
7. Justin Tipuric (Ospreys)
8. Taulupe Faletau (Newport Gwent Dragons)

Replacements:
16. Scott Baldwin (Ospreys)
17. Paul James (Ospreys)
18. Aaron Jarvis (Ospreys)
19. Luke Charteris (Racing 92)
20. James King (Ospreys)
21. Gareth Davies (Scarlets)
22. Rhys Priestland (Scarlets)
23. Hallam Amos (Newport Gwent Dragons)


The Key Battlegrounds
It is reasonable to infer from the teams named that both coaches have somewhat differing objectives for this match. Having shipped some understandable criticism following Wales's languid performance against Ireland three weeks ago, Gatland has named as strong a team as possible, ostensibly with the hope of snatching a win and building momentum before the final selection of his World Cup Squad. Schmidt, on the other hand, has chosen to rest a number of his usual starters in favour of offering an opportunity to impress to many of those who face stiff competition to win their place in the final squad. A typically hard-running Wales, anxious get their campaign onto the front foot, will prove a serious defensive test for the Irish backs, whose performance will surely be scrutinised most intensely, considering the limited squad places available to the numerous contenders in this area.

The Front Row
In White and Furlong Ireland have named what hitherto may have been considered our third and fourth choice tight-head props. Against Gethin Jenkins, an able scrummager, White will be tested. Indeed should White get the better of Jenkins at scrum time and deliver a strong display, his possibility of inclusion in the World Cup Squad will move to a probability. Furlong will benefit from the experience of inclusion in this game, and his naming at number 18 speaks to the potential the Irish management sees in the young man. Elsewhere Exeter's Tomas Francis has been chosen as Wales's tight-head. Though a promising player, he is newcomer to the international stage, and McGrath must seek to exploit Francis's inexperience to create Irish dominance in the set piece.

The Second Row
It will be an emotional farewell to one of the very few rugby players of the modern age deserving of the term "legendary" as Paul O'Connell lines out for the last time at Lansdowne Road for Ireland. With a career that has spanned some thirteen years of glorious service in the green jersey, he will say goodbye to his home supporters facing the same side against which he won his first cap. He scored a fine try on that day, way back in 2002, and it would be a fitting finish to his international service on Irish soil if he were to nab one here. Regardless, he will be given the loudest ovation the Aviva can muster on Saturday, deserving of every decibel of applause. Oh yeah, and there'll probably be three other lesser men playing in the second row too, but it hardly seems worth mentioning.

The Back Row
With Big Sam not being risked for this one, Tipuric takes his place in what is otherwise the same Welsh backrow we have come to expect from Gatland. Lydiate will be asked to tackle everything around him and Faletau will be expected to do his best impression of a freight train carrying a rugby ball. They have their match in O'Mahony, Murphy, and Heaslip, but it is perhaps the breakdown battle between Tipuric and Murphy that will prove the most interesting. Tipuric could hardly be accused of being the most physically imposing openside in the game, but has plenty of guile and skill to compensate. If Murphy can gain the upper hand and slow Welsh ball, while expediting our own, Wales will have a tough day at the office.

Half Back
For perhaps the first time in many many years Ireland possess a 9 and a 10 of truly world class quality. Webb and Biggar are fine players, with Webb in particular becoming renowned for his eye for a gap, but it would be hard to argue that Ireland have anything but the upper hand in this department.

Centre
Here Ireland have put together an as-of-yet untested combination in Henshaw and Fitzgerald. Most often utilised as a winger by Joe, Fitz's switch to 13 for this game appears a somewhat unusual move. With limited places available in the World Cup Squad for backs, versatility is key, and Fitzgerald may be in direct competition with Keith Earls for a single spot. Given Earls's Man-of-the-Match winning performance in Cardiff during these teams' last outing, and Fitzgerald's mixed display against Scotland, the Leinster man may need to show more of the incisive play that saw him become the youngest player to be capped for Ireland in nearly thirty years, to book his plane ticket. Facing Roberts and Williams, he and Henshaw will be punished for giving space to a pairing that are perhaps more creative than they are given credit for.

Outside Backs
Earls is awarded the opportunity to build on his performance three weeks ago and convince our Kiwi coach of his merits. Many consider the wing to be Earls's most natural position, and his try scoring record here speaks for itself. Defending the barreling runs of Cuthbert, Earls has a platform to show he is well capable of felling large targets on the international stage and, given Cuthbert's reputation as having something akin to the turning circle of an oil tanker, Earls may well get some joy on his wing by exposing his opposing number's defensive frailties. On the other side of the pitch Dave Kearney makes his first start in an Irish jersey in these warm up games. Rumours have abounded of Dave's scintillating displays in training, and certainly his energy and sharpness against Scotland were a refreshing injection when he was introduced in the latter stages of that game. Many believe Dave's inclusion in the final squad to be unlikely, but we know Joe to be a fan of his, and a strong performance could given him the edge over his rivals. Elsewhere Halfpenny will probably be awesome, North will hope to make a positive impact following his extended absence after a string of concussions, and Rob Kearney will deliver a strong performance that will later be bemoaned as "average".

Replacements
Cronin, Kilcoyne, and O'Brien can offer a dangerous running threat off the bench, Ryan can successfully trigger a standing ovation for Paulie, and Furlong will get the last few minutes.

Final Thoughts
With players fighting for squad places, and both teams keen to gain some momentum leading into their World Cup campaigns, the stage is set for a dramatic afternoon of rugby football. Though likely to be a tight affair, with the home crowd and Paulie's final hurrah in Dublin to inspire them I, like the bookies, predict a narrow Irish win.

Watch the match on Sky Sports 1, or if you dislike Murdoch's media empire, tune into the dulcet tones of RTÉ Radio 1. Or alternatively just go to the game. I mean, there are still tickets.

Celly Smunt

Excellent write up, fair play.


Let's hope that altitude training wasn't just delayed in its appearance and will bite us on Saturday. I want to see Gatland's face panic before the RWC.

Stheno

Nice write up

Do people expect that there will be a farewell to POC after the game?

Celly Smunt

Stheno wrote: »

Nice write up

Do people expect that there will be a farewell to POC after the game?

Informally I'd imagine, maybe a standing ovation but nothing BOD style I'd imagine.

pickarooney

POC will be back playing in Lansdowne in a few months I'd bet. He alone will give Leinster reason enough to move the Toulon match from the RDS.

Sangre

wittycynic wrote: »

Rhys Ruddock; Rhys Ruddock's dad.

lol

molloyjh

Excellent write up. Even has me considering buying an overpriced ticket for this one!

efb

I got an underpriced one when they went on sale! (Restricted view? Maybe if your 6'2"!)

connachta

wittycynic wrote: »

Born to Irish parents but raised in Wales, Connacht scrum-half, Kieran Marmion, found himself to be the almost sole focus of this week's pre-match speculation. With all the fervour of Moon Landing conspiracy theorists, Marmion's supporters and detractors combed through what seeming evidence could be pieced together to elucidate their theories on who would occupy the doubtlessly crucial berths of Ireland's third and fourth choice number 9 upon the naming of our World Cup Squad. With neither named in this week's 23, it would appear that the question is settled, with the veteran from the land of the long white cloud surely now set to claim a seat on the plane in Marmion's stead.

You're so right, Marmion would have got the spot he deserved if he chose to play for Wales.
3 threads about the 3rd SH, total former will probably vanish when he sees this:P

.ak

Great OP! Really enjoyed that, fairplay wittycynic. It was both witty, and cynical!


Want to add a poll? :P

bilston

Aye great preview wittycynic!

This is where the fun begins lads and lasses. The first two games were the warm ups to the warm ups. Now it starts to get serious.

I'm really looking forward to seeing that second row in action! And the midfield should be fun to watch as well.

Winning is quite important because the pessimist in me thinks we will probably lose next weekend (although could next weekend be our equivalent of England in NZ in 2003?) so while I don't think it will make a massive difference because of the way our WC fixtures fall, I would prefer we didn't go into the WC on the back of two defeats.

vienne86

Great write up!

Looking forward to this one......dying to see how Wales will have changed since last match. I hope we win, but more than anything else, I hope there are no injuries.

.ak

I'll take a loss, with no injuries, and some solid performances in the back line.

.ak

Really looking forward to seeing what Fitz, Earls and DK can do outside the first choice pivots.

total former

.ak wrote: »

Really looking forward to seeing what Fitz, Earls and DK can do outside the first choice pivots.

Definitely, but also looking forward to seeing what they can do defensively against Williams, Cuthbert and North. That could almost be the more important factor in Joe's eyes.

rrpc

.ak wrote: »

I'll take a loss, with no injuries, and some solid performances in the back line.

You might, but we all know that Joe won't :pac:

molloyjh

Decent performance + no injuries please. A win would be the icing on the cake but I'd take a loss over an injury at the moment.

vienne86

molloyjh wrote: »

Decent performance + no injuries please. A win would be the icing on the cake but I'd take a loss over an injury at the moment.

You're right. Decent performance rather than the win is what matters.

.ak

total former wrote: »

Definitely, but also looking forward to seeing what they can do defensively against Williams, Cuthbert and North. That could almost be the more important factor in Joe's eyes.

Honestly I think defensively they'll do well in the midfield. Luke is probably the best one-on-one tackler of all our back three players. Even after having a pretty poor game against Scotland I thought defensively he was very good. Henshaw is a beast in that regard also and Sexton is known for his defensive work. I can't see them getting much past us in that regard, but I do like the angles Williams works on, so it'll be interesting to see how we adjust to that.

The wings, however, won't have the same defensive capabilities. So that'll defo be interesting. DK and KE are both very committed players, but both are guilty of over committing at times and forgetting body position, often going too high and slipping off tackles. Then there's RK who, if you believe some people, hasn't made a tackle successfully since the game went professional.

So yeah, interested to see if we can stem that tide.

Akrasia

I wonder will Rob Kearney pass the ball to his brother more often than to Keith Earls given that they're both competing for one of the final places on the world cup panel

It's be interesting to see if this is a thing..

Actually, it's Rob Kearney so he'll probably just kick chase the ball to himself all day.

.ak

Akrasia wrote: »

I wonder will Rob Kearney pass the ball to his brother more often than to Keith Earls given that they're both competing for one of the final places on the world cup panel

It's be interesting to see if this is a thing..

Maybe he won't pass to anyone, therefore improving his own chances. Clever rascal...

wittycynic

.ak wrote: »

Great OP! Really enjoyed that, fairplay wittycynic. It was both witty, and cynical!


Want to add a poll? :P

Well thank you, and yes, poll added.

Head to Head

McGrath V Jenkins - Give this to Jenkins but not much if anything between them W
Strauss V Owen - Strauss I
White V Francis - both unknown at this level so parity D
Davies V Henderson - Henderson I
AWJ V POC - probably parity, both great players and leaders D
Lydiate V O'Mahony - O'Mahony I
Tipuric V Murphy - Parity D
Faletau V Heaslip - Heaslip I
Webb V Murray - Murray I
Biggar V Sexton - Sexton I
North V Earls - North, if he is in form he would be close to World 15 W
Roberts V Henshaw - Parity but leaning towards Roberts D
Williams V Luke - Williams though Luke with a big game could turn this around W
Cuthbert V D Kearney - giving this to Kearney, Cuthbert's been awful all season I
Halfpenny V R Kearney - Kearney, outplayed his counterpart in all aspects of play in the 6N I

Final score
Ireland 8
Wales 3
Draw 4

Think I'm being biased with some of these calls but there you have it, Ireland to massacre Wales.

total former

Deleted User wrote: »

Final score
Ireland 8
Wales 3
Draw 4

Think I'm being biased with some of these calls but there you have it, Ireland to massacre Wales.

Well you can't argue with science...

I think a lot of those head-to-head calls depend on where Wales are in their progress and individual form. An in-form Lydiate is better than POM, just we haven't seen him in form for a while, ditto Halfpenny, if he's on top form he's at least as good as Kearney, Rhys Webb is as good as Murray, Tipuric is a better natural 7 than Murphy.

I'd call it almost even tbh.

UnknownEntity

Can't wait for this!!!

The Rape of Lucretia

Deleted User wrote: »

Head to Head

McGrath V Jenkins - Give this to Jenkins but not much if anything between them W
Strauss V Owen - Strauss I
White V Francis - both unknown at this level so parity D
Davies V Henderson - Henderson I
AWJ V POC - probably parity, both great players and leaders D
Lydiate V O'Mahony - O'Mahony I
Tipuric V Murphy - Parity D
Faletau V Heaslip - Heaslip I
Webb V Murray - Murray I
Biggar V Sexton - Sexton I
North V Earls - North, if he is in form he would be close to World 15 W
Roberts V Henshaw - Parity but leaning towards Roberts D
Williams V Luke - Williams though Luke with a big game could turn this around W
Cuthbert V D Kearney - giving this to Kearney, Cuthbert's been awful all season I
Halfpenny V R Kearney - Kearney, outplayed his counterpart in all aspects of play in the 6N I

Final score
Ireland 8
Wales 3
Draw 4

Think I'm being biased with some of these calls but there you have it, Ireland to massacre Wales.

Is a way to look at it, but I would rate it :

McGrath V Jenkins - Give this to Jenkins but not much if anything between them W
Strauss V Owen - Strauss I
White V Francis - both unknown at this level so parity D
Davies V Henderson - Henderson I
AWJ V POC - probably parity, both great players and leaders D
Lydiate V O'Mahony - O'Mahony D
Tipuric V Murphy - Parity W
Faletau V Heaslip - Heaslip I
Webb V Murray - Murray I
Biggar V Sexton - Sexton I
North V Earls - North, if he is in form he would be close to World 15 W
Roberts V Henshaw - Parity but leaning towards Roberts D
Williams V Luke - Williams though Luke with a big game could turn this around D
Cuthbert V D Kearney - giving this to Kearney, Cuthbert's been awful all season W
Halfpenny V R Kearney - Kearney, outplayed his counterpart in all aspects of play in the 6N W


Irl 5
Wal 5
Draw 5


.......But, there is more that players in the mix..........
Joe versus The Dropper of BOD III

For a total of Irl 8, Wal 5, Draw 5.

molloyjh

Will North be back on his game after being out for so long?

connachta

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Is a way to look at it, but I would rate it :

McGrath V Jenkins - Give this to Jenkins but not much if anything between them W
Strauss V Owen - Strauss I
White V Francis - both unknown at this level so parity D
Davies V Henderson - Henderson I
AWJ V POC - probably parity, both great players and leaders D
Lydiate V O'Mahony - O'Mahony D
Tipuric V Murphy - Parity W
Faletau V Heaslip - Heaslip I
Webb V Murray - Murray I
Biggar V Sexton - Sexton I
North V Earls - North, if he is in form he would be close to World 15 W
Roberts V Henshaw - Parity but leaning towards Roberts D
Williams V Luke - Williams though Luke with a big game could turn this around D
Cuthbert V D Kearney - giving this to Kearney, Cuthbert's been awful all season W
Halfpenny V R Kearney - Kearney, outplayed his counterpart in all aspects of play in the 6N W

Better to analyse LH vs TH...

Webb, Henshaw, Tipuric and Lydiate under-estimated in your head-to-head IMO

rrpc

connachta wrote: »

Better to analyse LH vs TH...

Webb, Henshaw, Tipuric and Lydiate under-estimated in your head-to-head IMO

He gave Tipuric the nod against Jordi and honours even between Lydiate and O'Mahony which is being fair to Wales tbh. I would have given O'Mahony the nod there.

Webb v Murray may well turn on Murray's match sharpness, so I'd probably agree that it favours Wales, but if Murray is on form, Webb is behind.

Henshaw v Roberts could well turn on Roberts' experience. A draw is probably a fair evaluation.

The head to head with props is based on their individual skillsets and not who their actual opposite number in the scrum is. If you were going down that route, you'd also be matching blindside and openside flankers.

shuffol

I'd certainly have McGrath over Jenkins who's nowhere near the player he once was.

Stheno

molloyjh wrote: »

Will North be back on his game after being out for so long?

Is anyone else dreading the thoughts of him getting a knock to the head tomorrow?

jacothelad

shuffol wrote: »

I'd certainly have McGrath over Jenkins who's nowhere near the player he once was.

I think the comparisons should be against their direct opponents.
White v Jenkins. White every time these days. Gethin has been carded a lot recently for duff scrummaging.
McGrath v. Francis is an unknown. Francis has been very good and very bad in the same game.

sensitive1960

jacothelad wrote: »

I think the comparisons should be against their direct opponents.
White v Jenkins. White every time these days. Gethin has been carded a lot recently for duff scrummaging.
McGrath v. Francis is an unknown. Francis has been very good and very bad in the same game.

In the same way compare North v DK and Cuthbert v Earls

molloyjh

Stheno wrote: »

Is anyone else dreading the thoughts of him getting a knock to the head tomorrow?

I think it's def something a lot of people will be conscious of all right.

ionadnapokot

Akrasia wrote: »

I wonder will Rob Kearney pass the ball to his brother more often than to Keith Earls given that they're both competing for one of the final places on the world cup panel

It's be interesting to see if this is a thing..

Actually, it's Rob Kearney so he'll probably just kick chase the ball to himself all day.

Actually thats a good point. He very rarely passes the ball. And i cant remember the last time i saw him throw a pass out after fielding a clearance/territory kick. Under JS instruction of course.
Making try scoring opportunities out of turnover ball is something i'd like to see from Ireland in the early pool games (& hopefully 2morrow). The further we get at the RWC the more likely it is we will have to chase a score at some point.
the last turnover try i remeber was this one in Paris

Which was set up by Kearney running a knock on back, and presenting the ball back on a plate at the base of a ruck.
Joe u legend:)

rrpc

molloyjh wrote: »

I think it's def something a lot of people will be conscious of all right.

I wonder will he? He must know that another concussion could spell the end of his career.

Thanos

molloyjh wrote: »

I think it's def something a lot of people will be conscious of all right.

I like what you did there.....................

connachta

rrpc wrote: »

He gave Tipuric the nod against Jordi Parity wass writen too

The head to head with props is based on their individual skillsets and not who their actual opposite number in the scrum is. If you were going down that route, you'd also be matching blindside and openside flankers.

TH vs LH is a more concrete and regular face to face than openside vs blindside

connachta

Now, exclusively on Connachta's chanel head to head of the unfairly ousted SHs : Marmion vs Phillips:pac:

Hold on guys, just kidding, relax:p

rrpc

connachta wrote: »

Parity wass writen too

By Venjur. TRoL just changed the results he didn't alter the comments.

connachta wrote: »

TH vs LH is a more concrete and regular face to face than openside vs blindside

It is as is 10 to 12 or 10 to 7 but these 'head to heads' are merely comparisons of a player's strengths against an opposition player in the same position to evaluate the strengths of a team against its opposition.

It's hardly a scientific exercise because so much is left out of the equation.

lbj666

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Actually thats a good point. He very rarely passes the ball. And i cant remember the last time i saw him throw a pass out after fielding a clearance/territory kick. Under JS instruction of course.
Making try scoring opportunities out of turnover ball is something i'd like to see from Ireland in the early pool games (& hopefully 2morrow). The further we get at the RWC the more likely it is we will have to chase a score at some point.
the last turnover try i remeber was this one in Paris

Which was set up by Kearney running a knock on back, and presenting the ball back on a plate at the base of a ruck.
Joe u legend:)

Trimble botched that so badly, was something you;d expect earls to do.

ionadnapokot

Aye. Would have been nice symmetry if he manged to hold the pass a bit longer and put BOD over.

bilston

ionadnapokot wrote: »

Aye. Would have been nice symmetry if he manged to hold the pass a bit longer and put BOD over.

I thought at the time he was guilty of being so determind to put BOD in that it made it easier for the defender to read.

Celly Smunt

I miss BOD :-(

irishbucsfan

I'd be interested to hear from our pennybont exile about his expectations for the match, hope he checks in pre-kickoff.

Larbre34

Front row battle interesting me the most tomorrow, White for a good showing, loved him at Leinster.

Schmidt is definitely testing the mettle of our midfield, looking for damage from Henshaw and thinking from Fitzy.

Great to have a match of this quality on a dry summer field.

Zzippy

Larbre34 wrote: »

Front row battle interesting me the most tomorrow, White for a good showing, loved him at Leinster.

Schmidt is definitely testing the mettle of our midfield, looking for damage from Henshaw and thinking from Fitzy.

Great to have a match of this quality on a dry summer field.

Have you seen the forecast? Or the "summer" we've had...

Larbre34

Zzippy wrote: »

Have you seen the forecast? Or the "summer" we've had...

I know, but the pattern all week has been dry on the Dublin coast until 4/5 pm and I think we'll see more of the same, fairly fresh but dry thanks to the early kick-off

dregin

molloyjh wrote: »

Excellent write up. Even has me considering buying an overpriced ticket for this one!

They're cheap as chips on toutless!

.ak

bilston wrote: »

I thought at the time he was guilty of being so determind to put BOD in that it made it easier for the defender to read.

Yeah looking back at it now he never takes his eyes of bod, he was always gonna pass so made it easy for the defender.

Still the initial break is a beauty. Lovely acceleration into the turned player.

Outstanding write up