AUTUMN WEATHER 2015 - GENERAL CHAT THREAD

B17G

Clare & Galway Bay areas seem set to have high winds in the afternoon.

maquiladora

Carnacalla wrote: »

West Clare looks like it will be completly hammered tommorow

Some models are showing that but there's still a fair bit of uncertainly. It'll be a fairly small area of strong winds compared to a typical Atlantic low so the strongest winds could end up being further north or further south. Also, it may not develop as intense as some of these models are showing at the moment.

Padster90s

squarecircles wrote: »

What was the point in naming the lows
If they're not even going to bother using them.

Yeah Maq, it's a terrible name for a storm alright but I'd be with Squarecircles, when they go to the effort of looking for names for lows they might aswell use them! Could turn out to be another Bawbag even though that was an unofficial name. I for one can't wait for Storm Rhonda, lived with a Rhonda for a year in college...Rhonda's know how to leave a trail of destruction behind them!

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

When do you think the next named storm will be?

I spoke too soon

maquiladora

12Z ECM

Villain

I think this merits a warning thread, the winds could cause issues but the forecasted rainfall after the flooding that is already present will cause issue.

JCX BXC

Villain wrote: »

I think this merits a warning thread, the winds could cause issues but the forecasted rainfall after the flooding that is already present will cause issue.

Done : http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057523427

FWVT

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z ECM

Just to point out those winds are at 100 m, not standard 10 m.

Clonmel1000

omicron wrote: »

Arctic air in mid November will probably result in cold rain for most of the country with sleet or snow on high ground in the north. " inevitable widespread snow" is not even close to being hinted at on any current charts.

Never let a small matter like that stop the ramping. Like I said I'm with Ger Fleming on this one so looking forward to seeing how this weekend pans out for a start. A couple of posters have indicated a snow event looming. I don't see it myself. Cold maybe but perfectly normal and not unusual for mid to late November.

BLIZZARD7

Northern Ireland and Donegal/Sligo/Roscommon/border counties sort of area has a decent chance of snow on Saturday going off the GFS 6z, it has widespread -8c 850's and pockets of -9c.

East coast needs slightly more of an easterly tilt to the winds for streamers to have a chance of building. Its looking like a fairly short lived snap anyway and any real snow chances are limited to Saturday.

Huge uncertainty as to what pattern we're looking at beyond the weekend.

weatherfiend

Squealing here with excitement at the chance of cold and snow (and that's just me) but I hope to God my boiler is fixed over the next day or two. It's chilly enough in the house as it is!!!

maquiladora

That little kink in the isobar over the east coast on the 12Z GFS could give some snow to areas further south than the usual northern parts. Hard to forecast these things more than a day or two out though.

JCX BXC

What are the winds like for tomorrow?

maquiladora

Carnacalla wrote: »

What are the winds like for tomorrow?

Not too bad. Mainly in the northwest.

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Ireland

During Wednesday southwesterly winds will reach at times mean wind speeds of 50 to 60 km/h and in exposed coastal areas gusts of 90 to 100 km/h.

Issued:
Tuesday 17 November 2015 18:00
Valid:
Wednesday 18 November 2015 05:00 to Wednesday 18 November 2015 22:00

JCX BXC

maquiladora wrote: »

Not too bad. Mainly in the northwest.

Thats good, although by the looks of it it wont be too nice either.
If its enough to warrant a warning then its not going to be calm :P

Weatherproof79

Met office latest for Northern Ireland. Outlook for Friday to Sunday:
A much colder few days with sunny intervals and scattered sleet and snow showers. Showers mainly in the north and mostly dying out during Sunday. Fresh to strong northerly winds.

Gonzo

should be relatively dry in the east over the weekend, at this stage we could do with a dry spell after nearly 2 weeks of strong winds and heavy rain.

Rock Lesnar

Gonzo wrote: »

should be relatively dry in the east over the weekend, at this stage we could do with a dry spell after nearly 2 weeks of strong winds and heavy rain.

I definitely could do with some dry weather, field beside the house is waterlogged so any rain on top of it sends it my way, gets a bit messy

sryanbruen

Okay, temperatures are really gonna go up and down now. Notice by my maximums for the week ahead for example:

Thu 19th: 10c
Fri 20th: 9c
Sat 21st: 5c
Sun 22nd: 7c
Mon 23rd: 8c
Tue 24th: 12c
Wed 25th: 12c
Thu 26th: 9c
Fri 27th: 6c

Snowbiee21

Starting to look like this "cold snap" is drifting away onwards and upwards #wheresthewhitestuff

Iancar29

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Starting to look like this "cold snap" is drifting away onwards and upwards #wheresthewhitestuff

Dunno what charts you've been looking at.
Just because it doesn't look to be a widespread snow event doesn't mean it wont be a cold snap.

T850s Friday night has -8 covering a good portion of the country


2m Temps cold enough for widespread frost and even icy stretches. ( Whos looking forward to seeing the gritters out and about? )



For wintry showers then I agree it ain't so exciting with the lack of the low that we were teased with on a few runs.

Best areas are inland areas of the north and high ground. It'll be a waiting game to see if anything keeps together as far south as Dublin. But im hopeful for some slight change in winds to bring even a dusting to the Wicklow mountains for a nice hike Sunday morning.


As of yet though with the lack of any noticeable disruption possible i don't think a separate thread is needed .

Id take frosty cold mornings and clear nights anyday over constant rain and wind.
Onto the next model we go....

km79

just. be.dry. PLEASE

Schadenfreudia

sryanbruen wrote: »

Okay, temperatures are really gonna go up and down now. Notice by my maximums for the week ahead for example:

Thu 19th: 10c
Fri 20th: 9c
Sat 21st: 5c
Sun 22nd: 7c
Mon 23rd: 8c
Tue 24th: 12c
Wed 25th: 12c
Thu 26th: 9c
Fri 27th: 6c

That's a fairly sharp turn towards cold if it pans out....the max of 7C - five days ago - was the first (and so far only) maximum in single digits since early May.

sryanbruen

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

That's a fairly sharp turn towards cold if it pans out....the max of 7C - five days ago - was the first (and so far only) maximum in single digits since early May.

Two exceptions however Schadenfreudia for me,

I reached 9.7c on October 3rd and 8.1c on November 13th. And yeah! I remember in May during the big drench of May 2nd and I recorded a maximum of only 8.2c - it was horrible. My lowest all-time max. however for that month remains at 5.7c on May 14th, 1993. Anyway, so yeah...

Schadenfreudia

sryanbruen wrote: »

Two exceptions however Schadenfreudia for me,

I reached 9.7c on October 3rd and 8.1c on November 13th.

Only one!

The 13th was the day my max was 7.9C...

On the 3rd of October it was 11.2C.

JCX BXC

Somewhat unrelated but is there anywhere I could get an accurate forecast for Germany for the weekend?

Schadenfreudia

sryanbruen wrote: »

My lowest all-time max. however for that month remains at 5.7c on May 14th, 1993. Anyway, so yeah...

I actually remember that day!

The previous day had been very warm, I remember sitting outside on a balmy evening in Kilkenny.

Next afternoon, on the way home, it was snowing from Ticknock to Kilternan (there was no M50 back then).

The only other snow in May (sticking) I recall was in 1979.

sryanbruen

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

Only one!

The 13th was the day my max was 7.9C...

One the 3rd of October it was 11.2C.

It was way too cloudy for me to get higher.

Dublin Airport itself recorded only 10.1c or 9.8c, Met Éireann's graph charts are hard to make out http://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/sum1.pdf.

sryanbruen

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

I actually remember that day!

The previous day had been very warm, I remember sitting outside on a balmy evening in Kilkenny.

Next afternoon, on the way home, it was snowing from Ticknock to Kilternan (there was no M50 back then).

The only other snow in May (sticking) I recall was in 1979.

Yep, on the 11th / 12th, it was stunning with temperatures up to 21c then the second half was exceptionally poor for Grange with plenty of rainfall, dull skies (typical of 1993 :P - my dullest year on record) and low temperatures. I wish this November would give us some feckin' low temperatures!

sryanbruen

Carnacalla wrote: »

Somewhat unrelated but is there anywhere I could get an accurate forecast for Germany for the weekend?

I can tell you myself that it is going to be a bone-chilly weekend with rain at times and may be turning into snow - but as always, snow is one of the hardest things to predict. Maximum temperatures for example only around 6c on Saturday and down to 3c on Sunday with a mix of sunshine and showers.