Price Changes 2015/2016

iroced

Lukaku, Mahrez, Sagna up

Hazard, Ings, Bony, Naismith, Jerome, Emmes, B. Johnson, Schweinsteiger, J. Ayew, Remy, Cattermole, Sidwell, Zabaleta, S. Davis down


FFF have them all changing thrice ivernight :P :pac:...

hots

iroced wrote: »

FFF have them all changing thrice ivernight :P :pac:...

I was confused with the 6 mails in the inbox this morning -_- Seems they're overshooting the rises a touch at the moment, I think I was set for 4/5 last night and only got 2...

PARlance

Can we class Lukaku as the first bandwagon of the season?
He has potential to get points but his fixtures are horrible.

iroced

FHFC wrote: »

Rises are not 10% ownership. They are a set threshold. Fpls seem to be running with it at around 47k nti. (Check the 'delta' figure for any player at 0%) So thats what he'd need from whatever time the protection ends.

Think FISO used to give the target NTI. They're still giving the target %, so by combining with the NTI today you can easily work out the target NTI .

zarquon wrote: »

Interesting, i see that now on FPLS. I'm working from the old formula from 2013/14. I hadn't looked at the data last year but that is a significant change. It would explain why TotalFPL and FISO are misaligned this year but surely a 47K NTI flag would be an easy tweek to apply to the other sites.

Chelsea play at 3pm on Saturday so i'll make my decision Saturday night. A 47K threshold should certainly see him safe on Friday night.

Looking at the 2nd rise percentage data i can see that they are using 93.9K for the 2nd rise. There is no data for a 3rd rise yet but going on last year's tripling factor i will assume for now that a 3rd rise will require approximately an additional 141K NTI.

If this is the case a 0.3 rise will require a minimum of 282K transfers. There will be wastage each time a rise is flagged when the NTI is reset so the figure will be close to 300K in a gw, assuming average wastage of between 5 and 10%. 10% would be closer or exceeded for the big bandwagons so the actual required figure may be in excess of 310K transfers in a week.

The above would explain the slowing down and almost non existance of 0.3 rises in a single gw. In previous years it would take (original ownership+3x+2y+z)/10 where x was NTI for 1st rise, y was the addition nti for the 2nd rise and z was the additional nti between 2nd and 3rd rise.

What significant change are you talking about? If it's the target NTI for a price to rise it's been that way for at least 5 years.

Also, I don't think the doubling and trebling of the second price change occur now (it changed 2 years ago) FISO actually updated their help guidelines by removing the part about doubling & trebling NTI/O for second and third rise/drop.

Lucas Hood

I think this is the 4th season since they've abonded the x2 & x3 transfers needed for a rise.
Maybe even more.
Fiso just don't update their FAQ.

iroced

Lucas Hood wrote: »

I think this is the 4th season since they've abonded the x2 & x3 transfers needed for a rise.
Maybe even more.
Fiso just don't update their FAQ.

I thought the doubling/trebling stopped 2 years ago when we noticed players skyrocketting in price (I remember many £0.3m rise in 3 days, even £0.4m rise in 4 days (over 2 GWs) - things that were not happening the previous years...).

About FISO, I noticed they did update their FAQ this year :cool:. No doubling/trebling and the addition of the 3 changes per GW limit.

Cookie_Dough

Would you expect Fabregas to drop again before weekend? FPL stats have him at -87.7 atm, I've already lost 0.1 on him already and don't want to lose anymore!!

Will need to -4 it I've already done my FT this week... don't want to waste -4 if he won't drop especially as my only other Chelsea cover is Azpilicueta

Colking

Cookie_Dough wrote: »

Would you expect Fabregas to drop again before weekend? FPL stats have him at -87.7 atm, I've already lost 0.1 on him already and don't want to lose anymore!!

Will need to -4 it I've already done my FT this week... don't want to waste -4 if he won't drop especially as my only other Chelsea cover is Azpilicueta

Tough one. Keep monitoring the situation, personally I'd say he will drop again as most people are jumping on the Pedro Wagon.

Cookie_Dough

Colking wrote: »

Tough one. Keep monitoring the situation, personally I'd say he will drop again as most people are jumping on the Pedro Wagon.

Yeah, it's a pain, I don't have enough for Hazard or Pedro...was thinking Fabregas to Shaqiri :eek:

Decisions, decisions...

zarquon

iroced wrote: »

Think FISO used to give the target NTI. They're still giving the target %, so by combining with the NTI today you can easily work out the target NTI .


What significant change are you talking about? If it's the target NTI for a price to rise it's been that way for at least 5 years.

Also, I don't think the doubling and trebling of the second price change occur now (it changed 2 years ago) FISO actually updated their help guidelines by removing the part about doubling & trebling NTI/O for second and third rise/drop.

Target nti has definitely changed with net effect of slowing down rises.

I checked the data and fpls are using a double nti factor for a second rise. I checked this across a sample of 0.1 risers and they are definitely using 2xtarget nti for the 2nd rise i.e 93.9K. I'll need a 0.3 rise before i can confirm if a triple factor is used there.

Colking

Cookie_Dough wrote: »

Yeah, it's a pain, I don't have enough for Hazard or Pedro...was thinking Fabregas to Shaqiri :eek:

Decisions, decisions...

Credit for this to Clownfeet on the reddit site. It might help you to make a call on a midfield player to replace Fabregas

Player Club Mins % Passes Final 3rd % Passes Opp Half % Fwd Pass Successful Crosses Through Balls Assists Key Pass
Callum McManaman WBA 89 71% 81% 57% 2 0 1 5
Mesut Özil ARS 263 67% 86% 59% 10 2 1 12
Alexis Sánchez ARS 188 65% 85% 52% 1 1 0 3
Jonathan Walters STK 149 64% 82% 50% 1 0 0 5
Kevin Mirallas EVE 77 63% 81% 61% 2 0 0 1
Ramires CHE 64 63% 73% 69% 0 1 0 0
Philippe Coutinho LIV 259 62% 79% 74% 0 3 0 2
Ashley Young MUN 98 62% 79% 54% 0 0 0 1
Jack Grealish AVL 90 61% 82% 69% 0 0 0 1
Dusan Tadic SOT 180 61% 81% 85% 5 0 1 8
Marc Albrighton LEI 258 61% 79% 74% 7 0 3 8
Eden Hazard CHE 270 60% 83% 61% 1 1 1 9
Samir Nasri MCY 55 57% 83% 51% 0 1 0 1
Moussa Sissoko NEW 135 57% 74% 56% 2 0 0 2
David Silva MCY 269 56% 85% 69% 3 3 3 10
Memphis Depay MUN 240 56% 81% 49% 4 0 0 2
Jesús Navas MCY 245 55% 85% 37% 2 0 1 7
Raheem Sterling MCY 229 55% 81% 41% 1 1 1 3
Adnan Januzaj MUN 127 54% 85% 47% 0 2 0 1
Matt Ritchie BOU 269 54% 76% 70% 3 0 0 4
Aaron Ramsey ARS 270 54% 75% 60% 2 5 0 7
Dimitri Payet WHM 270 54% 69% 46% 3 1 1 6
Bakary Sako CPL 90 53% 79% 47% 0 0 0 0
Jurado WAT 248 53% 75% 51% 5 1 0 8
Jonny Howson NOR 266 52% 78% 53% 0 1 0 5
Sadio Mané SOT 205 52% 73% 49% 0 0 0 2
Nathan Redmond NOR 209 49% 79% 48% 1 0 1 8
Stephen Ireland STK 64 49% 77% 56% 2 1 1 3
Willian CHE 219 49% 74% 48% 0 0 0 5
Wilfried Zaha CPL 193 49% 70% 63% 1 0 0 2

SteelyDanJalapeno

Interesting, Albrighton coming out looking well there

Can you post link to the Reddit page?

Colking

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Interesting, Albrighton coming out looking well there

Can you post link to the Reddit page?

This is the one. He's a Hedge Fund Analyst and eats this stuff for breakfast.

https://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyPL/comments/3ifyq4/ubobnudd_this_is_getting_closer_to_what_you/

Swiper the fox

Hard to believe Ozil comes out better than Silva in those stats, everywhere except where it's important that is!

Colking

Swiper the fox wrote: »

Hard to believe Ozil comes out better than Silva in those stats, everywhere except where it's important that is!

I was very surprised at Tadic, these are some good underlying stats to help make decisions. It's tough with only 3 weeks of data to work with but I reckon it will help with monitoring potential break out differential players if you keep upcoming fixtures in mind.

Fitz*

Swiper the fox wrote: »

Hard to believe Ozil comes out better than Silva in those stats, everywhere except where it's important that is!

He has a better striker to feed in Aguero than Ozil has in Giroud.

It's one of the reasons I think 'chances created' should be a measure for a player instead of 'assists'. Chances created are a testament to the creative player while assists - well it takes 2 players to make an assist. A player could lay 10 chances on a plate for a striker and he misses them all - 0 assists. Then another player could create one chance for the striker and he scores - 1 assist.

In real life football that is, not fantasy! in fantasy it's the latter that is better!

iroced

zarquon wrote: »

Target nti has definitely changed with net effect of slowing down rises.

I checked the data and fpls are using a double nti factor for a second rise. I checked this across a sample of 0.1 risers and they are definitely using 2xtarget nti for the 2nd rise i.e 93.9K. I'll need a 0.3 rise before i can confirm if a triple factor is used there.

Thanks for the info.

I presume you did but I'm gonna ask anyway: did you check the accuracy of FPLS predictions too?

That would explain the slowing down of rises alright. Doubling & trebling + WC excluded. Don't think it's a good balance for the game. There's already the half-value lost for resale. Maybe FPL wants to make every single player affordable for everyone even late in the season (like impeding Agüero to reach £15m).

Paully D

Hazard dropped despite the assist at the weekend, I thought that would have saved him.

Colking wrote: »

This is the one. He's a Hedge Fund Analyst and eats this stuff for breakfast.

https://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyPL/comments/3ifyq4/ubobnudd_this_is_getting_closer_to_what_you/

It's very nicely put together and I'm not trying to lessen his work at all, but much of that stuff can be found with less than 2 minutes work using the FF Scout table generator via their members section.

Colking

Paully D wrote: »

Hazard dropped despite the assist at the weekend, I thought that would have saved him.



It's very nicely put together and I'm not trying to lessen his work at all, but much of that stuff can be found with less than 2 minutes work using the FF Scout table generator via their members section.

This is true, but many of the people on this site are probably not members of FF Scout and as such do not have ready access to that type of information to help them make decisions.

The OP I responded to was looking to make a call on a Midfield Player and I thought that info would help him.

We're expressly asked not to post FF Scout info on this site, but the other info was fine.

I know you are very good for analysing peoples teams and saying (the deeper underlying stats for this player are good etc.) I wanted to assist that person with their decision making process (with info that I could post), that's all.

Paully D

Colking wrote: »

This is true, but many of the people on this site are probably not members of FF Scout and as such do not have ready access to that type of information to help them make decisions.

The OP I responded to was looking to make a call on a Midfield Player and I thought that info would help him.

We're expressly asked not to post FF Scout info on this site, but the other info was fine.

I know you are very good for analysing peoples teams and saying (the deeper underlying stats for this player are good etc.) I wanted to assist that person with their decision making process (with info that I could post), that's all.

You're absolutely correct and you were spot on to post it, it's the type of post that makes this place as good as it is.

Markx

Swiper the fox wrote: »

Hard to believe Ozil comes out better than Silva in those stats, everywhere except where it's important that is!

It seemed last season that Silva was shooting more than previously. It would be nice of Ozil did the same. That would convert his stats into points.

I thought he was very good against Palace, and while not so much against Liverpool he was still heavily involved. Also, despite his reputation for being sluggish he seems better on the counter attack to me, so maybe away games will be where he produces. He is getting closer to the full 90 minutes more regularly now. I'll be holding him but without the confidence I should with an 8.5 million midfielder.

Colking

Markx wrote: »

I'll be holding him but without the confidence I should with an 8.5 million midfielder.

I'm in the same boat. I was watching the Liverpool game and his contribution to it and he didn't look very threatening on goal. Having said that Liverpool played extremely well.

Having said that Wenger is expecting great things from him this season and for the moment he's nailed on. Personally I think Rambo offers more of a threat but I don't want to be sweating every week if one of my main midfielders is going to start.

zarquon

iroced wrote: »

Thanks for the info.

I presume you did but I'm gonna ask anyway: did you check the accuracy of FPLS predictions too?

That would explain the slowing down of rises alright. Doubling & trebling + WC excluded. Don't think it's a good balance for the game. There's already the half-value lost for resale. Maybe FPL wants to make every single player affordable for everyone even late in the season (like impeding Agüero to reach £15m).

Yes, they are accurate with a margin of error of between 0 and 5% allowing for adhoc anomalous rises

I just checked their delta figures on Mahrez and based on his current 8.1% NTI towards a third rise i can verify they are using the 141K figure i hypothesised early i.e. triple the 47K 0.1 threshold. It's doubtful he'll reach that this week so there is no way to confirm their accuracy but next week may see a 0.3 rise due to the international break so i should be able to confirm that too.

I have worked out their fall thresholds too.

The fall threshold is 11% of ownership for each 0.1 fall with no weighting towards 2nd or 3rd falls. The fall threshold for a flagged player is 31%.

You can see how i arrived at the calculations via the following spreedsheet with a sample of 73 players. Data is based on FPLS with additional calculations in colums J through M. The FPLS margin of error on falls averages about 2 to 3% so these figures can be taken to be reasonably accurate.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TvX_XgSa4yHOzwtueoskgc7HYZ8Rr56uXiKcoJCcsQM/edit?pli=1#gid=0

FHFC

Paully D wrote: »

You're absolutely correct and you were spot on to post it, it's the type of post that makes this place as good as it is.

As i posted elsewhere allthingsfpl.com give free access to all the opta stats and allow players comparison.

That said, i won't object to someone doing it for me! !

Ziegler1988

Fletcher -90.9% and 330 transfers away from a drop, while the guy I bigged up (Westwood) is at +64.5%

zarquon

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

Fletcher -90.9% and 330 transfers away from a drop, while the guy I bigged up (Westwood) is at +64.5%

It won't be long before we start seeing some regularly playing bench fodder at 4.4 and 4.3 both in midfield and in defense. That''ll free up funds nicely for better use. Wanyama will probably drop first because he is out of the game tomorrow and possible the weekend due to a stomach infection.

JokerD

Mane is on -99.0 at the minute. Would people expect him to fall tonight?

km79

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

Fletcher -90.9% and 330 transfers away from a drop, while the guy I bigged up (Westwood) is at +64.5%

I'll take him at 4.4.....

Paully D

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

Fletcher -90.9% and 330 transfers away from a drop, while the guy I bigged up (Westwood) is at +64.5%

I have him but to be honest I don't mind. He'll sit there all season long as my 5th midfielder regardless of what he drops to.

ElTel

JokerD wrote: »

Mane is on -99.0 at the minute. Would people expect him to fall tonight?

Have him too.
He has trended down to that figure relatively quickly. (especially since he dropped 0.1M the previous GW)
I'm doubtful he'll survive but have only utilized the price change prediction site this year.
The predictions seem to be getting better but the likes of Ritchie and Deeney seem to be at the precipice at least a week and have survived!
3 hours to decide.
Good luck.