Price Changes 2015/2016

greedygoblin

So, a new season means a welcome* return to the mayhem of trying to guess who will rise in value and who will fall. The price prediction websites usually struggle early on as they try to get to grips with the algorithm changes that FPL Towers have cooked up.

The main sites that seem to be tracking price changes this year are fiso.co.uk, fplstatistics.com and fantasyfootballfix.com. It might take a couple of weeks yet for them to get some degree of accuracy going, but usually one can guesstimate reasonably well the players who will likely take off (ala Kane last season) and who will plummet (I'm looking at you BUIB! :mad::pac:).

The first bandwagon of the year looks to be Mahrez due to his impressive performance against Sunderland, with Courtois being jettisoned at the rate of knots by players after his red card against Swansea.

Last season I chased team value early on, to the detriment of my points total (-4's became a bit of a habit). This season I think I will try to take a more conservative approach to chasing price rises. Plenty of cheap and mid-priced players look like they could hit the ground running, while many of the stars so far have failed to set the FPL world alight.

Looking at the predicted changes, nobody seems like rising or falling for a few days yet, so my tentative advice is to play it by ear and hold off on any knee-jerk reactions until the lay of the land becomes more apparent.

* May not be entirely true!

SteelyDanJalapeno

Courtouis and Baines getting transferred out heavily

SSLguru

Walcott is out on his ear

jimmii

FPLS top 5 each way right now:

Darmian 65.4%
Mahrez 64.8%
Gomez 55.1%
Romero 49.1% I guess Courtois/DDG>Romero is a popular one
Cabaye 43.7%

De Gea -41.5%
Kozak -40.8%
Ulloa -39.5%
Bamford -36.5%
Remy -33%

Still a good few days off any changes unless the thresholds have dropped considerably.

FHFC

jimmii wrote: »

FPLS top 5 each way right now:

Darmian 65.4%
Mahrez 64.8%
Gomez 55.1%
Romero 49.1% I guess Courtois/DDG>Romero is a popular one
Cabaye 43.7%

De Gea -41.5%
Kozak -40.8%
Ulloa -39.5%
Bamford -36.5%
Remy -33%

Still a good few days off any changes unless the thresholds have dropped considerably.

Glad to see Walcott owners taking it easy so far.

Lemlin

Walcott is owned by 315,534 people by my calculation. 14,288 have transferred him out so he's only at 4.5%.

spock.

Lemlin wrote:

Walcott is owned by 315,534 people by my calculation. 14,288 have transferred him out so he's only at 4.5%.

That's not how it works though?
That would mean his ownership would have to fall to 0 for a price drop to occur.

FHFC

Lemlin wrote: »

Walcott is owned by 315,534 people by my calculation. 14,288 have transferred him out so he's only at 4.5%.

Where are you getting the 14,288 figure as a matter of interest?

Assuming thats right he needs approx 31,553 NTO to drop so would be 45% of the way to a drop. (Thats based on FISO current understanding of approximately 10% of ownership being the NTO threshold for a drop which may no longer be the case)

FPL Stats have him at 21.3%

SteelyDanJalapeno

IT's on the FPL site

Player Team Pos Selected Price GW Total TO
Arsenal Player information Walcott ARS MID 10.6% £9.0 1 1 14,288

FHFC

TiltedBrain wrote: »

IT's on the FPL site

Player Team Pos Selected Price GW Total TO
Arsenal Player information Walcott ARS MID 10.6% £9.0 1 1 14,288

Must have a closer look. Not got my head round the numbers this year.

Lemlin

spock. wrote: »

That's not how it works though?
That would mean his ownership would have to fall to 0 for a price drop to occur.

MY bad. Didn't realise it was get to 10% of ownership for a drop. If someone like Sterling or Silva has a good game tonight, he could drop the 0.3 this week.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Lemlin wrote: »

MY bad. Didn't realise it was get to 10% of ownership for a drop. If someone like Sterling or Silva has a good game tonight, he could drop the 0.3 this week.

What an awful situation to be in, If that happens I will have a good week as I have both Sterling and Kun, but I will be forced to transfer out Theo, even thou I want him for another week or 2.

Ziegler1988

Lemlin wrote: »

MY bad. Didn't realise it was get to 10% of ownership for a drop. If someone like Sterling or Silva has a good game tonight, he could drop the 0.3 this week.

It takes more for each successive drop in a GW. Not sure on figures but going by last year 0.3 drops were quite rare

FHFC

Lemlin wrote: »

MY bad. Didn't realise it was get to 10% of ownership for a drop. If someone like Sterling or Silva has a good game tonight, he could drop the 0.3 this week.

I dunno. Haven't got.much of a feel for it yet but dont see 1/3 of his owners selling. Many will have other priorities, Courtois, other non starters etc. Also at quite low ownership i'd say a fair proportion of Walcott owners were aware of the risks and won't panic after one gw.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Looks like Courtois has lost 20% owners already

jimmii

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Looks like Courtois has lost 20% owners already

Wow 75k out already thats pretty crazy! Baines the only player near him on sales you do wonder what the 1381 people who bought him in were thinking!

zarquon

Lemlin wrote: »

MY bad. Didn't realise it was get to 10% of ownership for a drop. If someone like Sterling or Silva has a good game tonight, he could drop the 0.3 this week.

0.3 should not happen unless he sheds the majority of his ownership. One less night this week to drop due to early deadline. 10% calculation changes after the first drop. Calculations are complicated but it's close to 20% for the second drop, if things have not changed from last year based on this formula

Price Fall % = (Transfers In-transfer out) /(10% * # of teams player selected by at time of drop)(1 + # of price drops this gameweek)

Wildcard net transfers were also not accounted for in the above formula and there is no way to know the amount of NTI accreditated to wildcards so it's all an estimate by the price change sites.

I'd say there are plenty of knee jerk wildcards already in play so i wouldn't pay too much attention to the percentage for now as it will be skewed.

If FPL have changed the rules and now account wildcards transfers then walcott owners are screwed but this would be a dramatic change that would see many players plunge in heavy wildcard weeks

JIdontknow

Any likely risers / fallers tonight? Had a terrible week - Last thing I want is a faller as makes a difference of 0.5 player to replace him.

shineon23

Just dumped Courtois there to give me 12 starters

But will have to keep an eye on Theo but I can't really see anyone jumping out at me in that price range, have 1 mill banked for Aguero/Sanchez in time.

Is Theo close to a drop based on last years estimates? at least that'd be some guideline, even if the formuale are completely changed

jimmii

JIdontknow wrote: »

Any likely risers / fallers tonight? Had a terrible week - Last thing I want is a faller as makes a difference of 0.5 player to replace him.

No one knows if there has been formula changes but it seems unlikely we will we anything tonight unless there has been a big change. Going by last years guestimated formula no one is at 90% yet even.

jimmii

shineon23 wrote: »

Just dumped Courtois there to give me 12 starters

But will have to keep an eye on Theo but I can't really see anyone jumping out at me in that price range, have 1 mill banked for Aguero/Sanchez in time.

Is Theo close to a drop based on last years estimates? at least that'd be some guideline, even if the formuale are completely changed

No one is close to a drop yet at all and Theo isn't even on the first page for drops so he's well off.

PARlance

We should find out tonight if there's any messing around with prices this year.
Gomez, Darmian & Mahrez currently 102,96,94% respectively on FPL stats... So all 3 should have enough for a rise (even allowing for a nice chunk of WC's) tonight.

jimmii

FPLS now showing them as 95.2, 84.4 & 82.5 how weird!

PARlance

jimmii wrote: »

FPLS now showing them as 95.2, 84.4 & 82.5 how weird!

And only back up to 102, 89, 88 now.
Mightn't be any rises tonight at all.

jimmii

PARlance wrote: »

And only back up to 102, 89, 88 now.
Mightn't be any rises tonight at all.

How strange maybe there is some sort of timing bug in their programme that is making it jump around? Hopefully Gomez goes up tonight and suggests that not much has changed.

hots

Does anyone remember the price change website that used to let you stick in your ID and it would show you the details for your current players? Didn't track prices last year and all of the sites seem to have changed appearances...

Scorpion Sting

hots wrote: »

Does anyone remember the price change website that used to let you stick in your ID and it would show you the details for your current players? Didn't track prices last year and all of the sites seem to have changed appearances...

TotalFPL I think you're on about.

hots

Scorpion Sting wrote: »

TotalFPL I think you're on about.

It was, thanks, looks like it's all over the place with +1,000% rises etc.

FHFC

hots wrote: »

It was, thanks, looks like it's all over the place with +1,000% rises etc.

It basically stopped being updated last year. Waste of time.

jimmii

hots wrote: »

It was, thanks, looks like it's all over the place with +1,000% rises etc.

All but dead now wouldn't bother with it at all unfortunately. Used to be a handy feature.

manual_man

If last season's anything to go by, then fplstatistics.co.uk has to be seen as the most accurate. Id be surprised if fpl changed the formula for a second season running - the first price rise(s) - possibly tonight and the picture will start to become clearer

PARlance

jimmii wrote: »

All but dead now wouldn't bother with it at all unfortunately. Used to be a handy feature.

I think someone on here mentioned that the guy running it had pretty much given up running it.

Invincible

manual_man wrote: »

If last season's anything to go by, then fplstatistics.co.uk has to be seen as the most accurate. Id be surprised if fpl changed the formula for a second season running - the first price rise(s) - possibly tonight and the picture will start to become clearer

Crack the code wasn't too bad once they figured out the thresholds either.

jimmii

PARlance wrote: »

I think someone on here mentioned that the guy running it had pretty much given up running it.

Yeh that was me! Family life got in the way. Getting old sucks!

PARlance

jimmii wrote: »

Yeh that was me! Family life got in the way. Getting old sucks!

You've just reminded me that my kids nappies probably need a change. Think they're in the same ones since I nearly knee jerked Aguero into my team last week

manual_man

fplstats have Gomez for a rise tonight, Darmian and Mahrez very close also

zarquon

manual_man wrote: »

fplstats have Gomez for a rise tonight, Darmian and Mahrez very close also

They are borderline. If a lot of wildcards are in play it could well be tomorrow night or Thursday before they rise.

manual_man

zarquon wrote: »

They are borderline. If a lot of wildcards are in play it could well be tomorrow night or Thursday before they rise.

In fairness, fplstats do (or at least try to) take into account wildcard transfers when calculating their predictions. Otherwise the aforementioned 3 would be well above the threshold already

zarquon

manual_man wrote: »

In fairness, fplstats do (or at least try to) take into account wildcard transfers when calculating their predictions. Otherwise the aforementioned 3 would be well above the threshold already

It'll take several weeks for wildcard info to be accrued and accounted for. Right now the stats are based on pure transfer info irrespective of wildcards so will be contain a margin of error.

I'd be fairly confident that a chunk of the gomez and mahrez transfers are wildcard related as they are cheap enablers and almost every wildcarder would include them. Albrighton might split the wildcard selection on Mahrez but of the 93k transfers for Gomez i would not be surprised to see at least 20% of those related to wildcard. As long as wildcards are not included again then he won't change tonight despite being at 105% on fpls

PARlance

Nobody, no one.

(Early flight today, I'm not that obsessed with price rises.... just yet)

Colking

PARlance wrote: »

Nobody, no one.

(Early flight today, I'm not that obsessed with price rises.... just yet)

3 Risers Darmian, Gomez and Mahrez. Looks like FPL are still the best.
2 Dropped De Gea and Ulloa

iroced

Colking wrote: »

3 Risers Darmian, Gomez and Mahrez. Looks like FPL are still the best.
2 Dropped De Gea and Ulloa

Jeez :eek:...

When I checked earlier (9 am GMT+1) nothing had changed. It's a little thing but it's annoying that FPL is always so obscure about price changes. I didn't rush Gomez in yesterday night 'cause I felt I hadn't finished my "homeworks" regarding the organisation of my defense. Ah well...

FHFC

iroced wrote: »

Jeez :eek:...

When I checked earlier (9 am GMT+1) nothing had changed. It's a little thing but it's annoying that FPL is always so obscure about price changes. I didn't rush Gomez in yesterday night 'cause I felt I hadn't finished my "homeworks" regarding the organisation of my defense. Ah well...

So do we havea new time for price changes? I was up with kids around 3.30 and nothing. Iroced nothing at iam irish time. Changed between 8 and 9 am?

Cookie_Dough

sorry for asking a supid question but how do the price changes work..:o

Like last season say- I had Silva at £8.5m or whatever then his price rose to £9.0m, if I sell him I should get £9.0m but it seemed to only give me the price I paid £8.5m when I sold him.

Should it not be the case that if I bought Darmian for £5.5m & his price rises I get the higher price in return? Likewise if I had De Gea at £5.5m & his price fell I would get the lower amount back for him?

Just confused as I seemed to get back the price I initially paid for a player in last seasons game regardless of price changes.

Necronomicon

Cookie_Dough wrote: »

sorry for asking a supid question but how do the price changes work..:o

Like last season say- I had Silva at £8.5m or whatever then his price rose to £9.0m, if I sell him I should get £9.0m but it seemed to only give me the price I paid £8.5m when I sold him.

Should it not be the case that if I bought Darmian for £5.5m & his price rises I get the higher price in return? Likewise if I had De Gea at £5.5m & his price fell I would get the lower amount back for him?

Just confused as I seemed to get back the price I initially paid for a player in last seasons game regardless of price changes.

There's a "selling fee" of 50% for every rise a player makes. So for owners of Darmian the selling price would still be 5.5, but if he rose to 5.7 then you could sell him for 5.6 if you had him from the start.

iroced

FHFC wrote: »

So do we havea new time for price changes? I was up with kids around 3.30 and nothing. Iroced nothing at 8am irish time. Changed between 8 and 9 am?

I presume it's just the first days. It did happen last year (and the ones before) that price changes occured in the morning at times (or even not at all a couple of times). I can't really remember precisely how it started though...

If they do change it this way though, it'll change the forum habits. No need for late nights, it'll be early mornings ...

FHFC

iroced wrote: »

I presume it's just the first days. It did happen last year (and the ones before) that price changes occured in the morning at times (or even not at all a couple of times). I can't really remember precisely how it started though...

If they do change it this way though, it'll change the forum habits. No need for late nights, it'll be early mornings ...

Cheers. Didn't remember it changing in the morning before. I remember one night early on last season they didn't change at all even though players were definitely due to rise.

Cookie_Dough

Necronomicon wrote: »

There's a "selling fee" of 50% for every rise a player makes. So for owners of Darmian the selling price would still be 5.5, but if he rose to 5.7 then you could sell him for 5.6 if you had him from the start.

Great, thanks so much for that! Tempted to buy De Gea now...

CSF

Cookie_Dough wrote: »

Great, thanks so much for that! Tempted to buy De Gea now...

But you'd lose a .1 on him. Unless you're joking.

Cookie_Dough

CSF wrote: »

But you'd lose a .1 on him. Unless you're joking.

No..I wasn't. Was kinda thinking I could sell Courtois for 5.5 but De Gea for 5.4 (making profit of 0.1. I have 0.5 in bank) and in the event that he stays his price will rise again once he is getting regular game time.

Having said that I doubt Van Gaal wil play him again until the transfer windown closes so his price may drop again. Realistically I most likely will not buy him as he will probably be sold. (Don't mind me, I'm just thinking out loud)

When is there a specific point in the week that prices change?

jimmii

Cookie_Dough wrote: »

No..I wasn't. Was kinda thinking I could sell Courtois for 5.5 but De Gea for 5.4 (making profit of 0.1. I have 0.5 in bank) and in the event that he stays his price will rise again once he is getting regular game time.

Having said that I doubt Van Gaal wil play him again until the transfer windown closes so his price may drop again. Realistically I most likely will not buy him as he will probably be sold. (Don't mind me, I'm just thinking out loud)

When is there a specific point in the week that prices change?

Changes can occur every day in the morning time GMT.

You wouldn't be making a profit or loss buying him at 5.4 it seems much more likely he will go down again if anything though. If he does convince LVG he wants to play though then I can see him being back up to 5.5 pretty quick but you would still need him to hit 5.6 to make a profit when selling.