Price Changes 2015/2016

Swiper the fox

Swiper the fox wrote: »

If Mane is confirmed out or Koeman paints a picture which makes it unlikely that he'll start then I will also probably double up on Pedro and Hazard.
I never got to talk about hi because I wasn't here last week but Pedro is a player I've always liked and I can see him making a Sanchez like impression in England. However the English league is a difficult one to get used to so I have no problem holding back and seeing him a couple of more times, I saw most of Sundays match and felt he did ok but wasn't deserving of the plaudits he got imo, there was a lot of luck attached to that goal

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

He would have had another assist if Willian could finish at all. So far this season with Silva, I've been unlucky not to get the goal GW1 and then lucky for two assists off corners and a deflected interception assist. It evens out

I agree entirely Ziegler, the quoted post above was my original one that this escalated from when Lemlin suggested that my feeling about Pedro was similar to my thoughts on Fabregas.
Sometimes I wish I could just step away from the keyboard:(

Swiper the fox

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

I've probably been the poster mostly bigging up Pedro. I posted the reasons why I feel he will be a 200 pt midfielder last week he has the career stats and style of play to be ff gold. The comparison I made with him is ADM and in a bit of a coincidence ADM also made a lucky FF points start with goals that were crosses and shots being mi**** and turning into assists. The difference between the 2 of them is Pedro scores goals 5 pts ADM specialised in assists 3 pts. Midfielders that score goals are the type of players you need for FF and Pedro is a 1 in every 3 games goalscorer.

Agreed, I compared him to Sanchez and I stick by that, but people would have been rewarded by waiting a few gameweeks last year to move on Sanchez as far as I remember, he was in very few of the wildcard teams around week 3 of last year.

8-10

Swiper the fox wrote: »

I couldn't in all honesty ditch Hazard before a home game against Palace who've conceded 4 times in the 3 games so far. It'll be nice to view him as some sort of differential.

Yeah. The sort of differential with only 1.3 million other teams having him.

Drop in price or not - he's no differential! He's the highest owned player in the game and probably one of the top captain options after Kun

Iused2likebusts

8-10 wrote: »

Yeah. The sort of differential with only 1.3 million other teams having him.

Drop in price or not - he's no differential! He's the highest owned player in the game and probably one of the top captain options after Kun

I think he is a differential most people on here that wildcarded last week went without Chelsea attacking coverage. They are now more likely to move to pedro. These are the sample of people I would find most relevant as they generally finish with a very high rank.

Lemlin

Swiper the fox wrote: »

I agree entirely Ziegler, the quoted post above was my original one that this escalated from when Lemlin suggested that my feeling about Pedro was similar to my thoughts on Fabregas.
Sometimes I wish I could just step away from the keyboard:(

I was joking Swiper, hence the winky eye. Thought you would have realised that. Bit of banter is all that was intended.

sneachtafear

I have noticed some players have a very big ego this year. Hope this does not affect prices. Would be a shame if it dominated threads too much.

Deco99

sneachtafear wrote: »

I have noticed some players have a very big ego this year. Hope this does not affect prices. Would be a shame if it dominated threads too much.

???

zarquon

sneachtafear wrote: »

I have noticed some players have a very big ego this year. Hope this does not affect prices. Would be a shame if it dominated threads too much.

Right lads, fess up. Which of ye have been artificially driving up and down the prices of players?

PARlance

zarquon wrote: »

Right lads, fess up. Which of ye have been artificially driving up and down the prices of players?

I've been tweeting Rooney about his poor scoring records against teams... and his lack of form.... and questioning if he really likes playing football at all

zarquon

PARlance wrote: »

I've been tweeting Rooney about his poor scoring records against teams... and his lack of form.... and questioning if he really likes playing football at all

I tweeted Mahrez during preseason and told him that Eamonn Dunphy said he was a nothing player. Will tweet Depay now about Lemlin's comment that Dunphy said he wouldn't get a game for City reserves!

Depay triple captain this week so. Choo Choo!!!

sneachtafear

Looking forward to the Price Changes overnight.

Mr. Guappa

PARlance wrote: »

I've been tweeting Rooney about his poor scoring records against teams... and his lack of form.... and questioning if he really likes playing football at all

I used subliminal advertising techniques to convince everyone that Rooney had a great scoring record against Aston Villa and Newcastle.

Iused2likebusts

Im not sure if my ego is rising or falling after tonights events.

Ziegler1988

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

Im not sure if my ego is rising or falling after tonights events.

Protected until Friday

Bleating Lamb

Do people see Pedro rising .1 Fri night with a flood of transfers in?

Am only after WC but might be tempted to move on him in case he gets a .2 rise the following week.

FutureGuy

sneachtafear wrote: »

I have noticed some players have a very big ego this year. Hope this does not affect prices. Would be a shame if it dominated threads too much.

I'm sorry I have no idea what you mean by that? Can you explain?

FutureGuy

Bleating Lamb wrote: »

Do people see Pedro rising .1 Fri night with a flood of transfers in?

Am only after WC but might be tempted to move on him in case he gets a .2 rise the following week.

I think it depends on the transfers on that particular day.

CSF

Bleating Lamb wrote: »

Do people see Pedro rising .1 Fri night with a flood of transfers in?

Am only after WC but might be tempted to move on him in case he gets a .2 rise the following week.

If he doesn't stop being protected until mid afternoon then I don't see him rising for a few days. So many people don't follow the stats for rises and will have already brought him after his start against West Brom.

Of course people will still bring him in when doing their last minute Friday night transfers too but that won't be such a big number relatively speaking IMO.

ElTel

Might be bringing him in anyway if Mane drops.
Will re-evaluate after game on Thursday hopefully

CSF

ElTel wrote: »

Might be bringing him in anyway if Mane drops.
Will re-evaluate after game on Thursday hopefully

Can't see Mané not dropping. But I think it'll likely be Friday or Thursday in extreme circumstances. Midfield seems to be the big transfer area in this gameweek with Mahrez continuing to gather steam and Pedro having firmly establishing himself in the minds of FPL players everywhere.

zarquon

CSF wrote: »

If he doesn't stop being protected until mid afternoon then I don't see him rising for a few days. So many people don't follow the stats for rises and will have already brought him after his start against West Brom.

Of course people will still bring him in when doing their last minute Friday night transfers too but that won't be such a big number relatively speaking IMO.

His NTI will be set to zero so if this happens in the afternoon, he will require a further non wildcarded 10% of his ownership to go up in value. He is averaging 60K transfers in atm so this could put his ownership close to 400K when his protection is lifted. This would require another approximate 40K non wildcard transfers before 2.15 a.m.

It'll be close but i hope he'll stay at 9.5. I'd like one more week before deciding on him as i don't want to take a -4 this week.

FHFC

zarquon wrote: »

His NTI will be set to zero so if this happens in the afternoon, he will require a further non wildcarded 10% of his ownership to go up in value. He is averaging 60K transfers in atm so this could put his ownership close to 400K when his protection is lifted. This would require another approximate 40K non wildcard transfers before 2.15 a.m.

It'll be close but i hope he'll stay at 9.5. I'd like one more week before deciding on him as i don't want to take a -4 this week.

Rises are not 10% ownership. They are a set threshold. Fpls seem to be running with it at around 47k nti. (Check the 'delta' figure for any player at 0%) So thats what he'd need from whatever time the protection ends.

Unlikely to rise Friday imo. Although if the protection stops at 2am maybe. And nobody knows for sure when it does. Will very likely rise Sat though. When do Chelsea play?

ElTel

CSF wrote: »

Can't see Mané not dropping. But I think it'll likely be Friday or Thursday in extreme circumstances. Midfield seems to be the big transfer area in this gameweek with Mahrez continuing to gather steam and Pedro having firmly establishing himself in the minds of FPL players everywhere.

Probably true.
My consolation for the -4 hit would be a Chelsea guy in my squad.

zarquon

FHFC wrote: »

Rises are not 10% ownership. They are a set threshold. Fpls seem to be running with it at around 47k nti. (Check the 'delta' figure for any player at 0%) So thats what he'd need from whatever time the protection ends.

Unlikely to rise Friday imo. Possibly Sat though. When do Chelsea play?

Interesting, i see that now on FPLS. I'm working from the old formula from 2013/14. I hadn't looked at the data last year but that is a significant change. It would explain why TotalFPL and FISO are misaligned this year but surely a 47K NTI flag would be an easy tweek to apply to the other sites.

Chelsea play at 3pm on Saturday so i'll make my decision Saturday night. A 47K threshold should certainly see him safe on Friday night.

Looking at the 2nd rise percentage data i can see that they are using 93.9K for the 2nd rise. There is no data for a 3rd rise yet but going on last year's tripling factor i will assume for now that a 3rd rise will require approximately an additional 141K NTI.

If this is the case a 0.3 rise will require a minimum of 282K transfers. There will be wastage each time a rise is flagged when the NTI is reset so the figure will be close to 300K in a gw, assuming average wastage of between 5 and 10%. 10% would be closer or exceeded for the big bandwagons so the actual required figure may be in excess of 310K transfers in a week.

The above would explain the slowing down and almost non existance of 0.3 rises in a single gw. In previous years it would take (original ownership+3x+2y+z)/10 where x was NTI for 1st rise, y was the addition nti for the 2nd rise and z was the additional nti between 2nd and 3rd rise.

Ziegler1988

Mane might not drop if Koeman declares him fit tomorrow/he plays Thursday. Then his flag would be removed and he'd go back to 0%

ElTel

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

Mane might not drop if Koeman declares him fit tomorrow/he plays Thursday. Then his flag would be removed and he'd go back to 0%

My understanding is that does not happen when a player is flagged yellow.
Can someone clarify this please.

Ziegler1988

ElTel wrote: »

My understanding is that does not happen when a player is flagged yellow.
Can someone clarify this please.

Red to green means protection for 8 days. Any other color flag to green wipes out the transfers in/out

ElTel

Thanks Ziegler.
That would obviously be the ideal scenario for Mane owners.

ElTel

Wow Zarquon and Co.
Where are all these formulae to be seen?
This Pedro rise or fall info has got me intrigued..

zarquon

ElTel wrote: »

Wow Zarquon and Co.
Where are all these formulae to be seen?
This Pedro rise or fall info has got me intrigued..

The thresholds are extrapolated from the figures on fpl statistics. The formulae are my own constructs from this data so you wont see them anywhere except here