SUMMER WEATHER 2015 -GENERAL DISCUSSION THREAD

Kermit.de.frog

Having said that we are on a knife edge. This is serious heat coming off the continent. Even though things have shifted east a bit highs in the 30's could not be ruled out on the ECM for example.

FWVT

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Having said that we are on a knife edge. This is serious heat coming off the continent. Even though things have shifted east a bit highs in the 30's could not be ruled out on the ECM for example.

That's still only showing max high 20s in the midlands with those 850 hPa temps of 10-17 °C. With standard pressure, low wind setting up a sea-breeze regime, and convective clouds, adding around 12 degrees to the these temperatures should give theoretical max 2m temps.

Oneiric 3

Very similar to the set up that occurred on July 2nd, 2009, though 850 hPa temps were a little lower than what is currently being projected this time around. This set up in 2009 brought some overnight thunderstorms to eastern coasts and later on the 2nd - if I recall correctly, some particular severe thunderstorms developed over Co. Donegal bringing flash flooding. (open to correction in this)

Clonmel1000

Cloudy breezy and a lot fresher today. Its all very meh really

ComfortKid

Horrible day yet again, wet and windy. At least it's warm rain I suppose.

Schadenfreudia

Calm, mild (19C) and dull. Not a bad day; and it's day 20 of the Great Partial Drought.

I was getting excited about the humongous heat on the way till I spotted the date - its over a week away!

Rock Lesnar

Had about 10mins of our 1st dose of meaningful rain in over 2 weeks there this morning, horrible stuff

maquiladora

Potential for some serious 1980's style fireworks somewhere with a chart like this. Long way off though...

ComfortKid

Schadenfreudia wrote:

Calm, mild (19C) and dull. Not a bad day; and it's day 20 of the Great Partial Drought.

Really, 20 days? What county?

Schadenfreudia

ComfortKid wrote: »

Really, 20 days? What county?

County Dublin. It has been a very good month here, very dry and sunny; bit cooler than average due to low night temps and that constant NW breeze.

Clonmel1000

Cool dark and breezy evening here. Dark already.

ComfortKid

Clonmel1000 wrote:

Cool dark and breezy evening here. Dark already.

Can't see tomorrow being any different either! :-(

WheatenBriar

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

County Dublin. It has been a very good month here, very dry and sunny; bit cooler than average due to low night temps and that constant NW breeze.

Aye it's been 3 weeks in Arklow since the ground has been wet,we did have one or two 5 min bursts but gone
Warmer than Dublin though which is unusual but normal for a pattern like this where upper wind flows prevent sea breezes and a high ground foehn land breeze established in sun thanks to the mountains breaking the cloud

Kermit.de.frog

If I was to target two days next week for potentially hot weather it would be Tuesday and Wednesday. Both days look well above average and mostly clear but chance of storms too.






This may back west again in further runs but right now Tuesday and Wednesday look particularly warm. Whether we this evolve in to something more long term is up in the air.

maquiladora

Looking less interesting for us on the 18Z GFS: high teens - low 20's in places Tue/Wed. Not as much of a plume into the UK either. Still a nice couple of days on the cards but getting a bit watered down from how things looked last night and this morning.

Still far enough away for further changes, either way.

maquiladora

Looking a little more interesting again on the 0Z GFS though. 18 degree uppers briefly reaching the east coast. Of course it could change again...

RobertKK

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

I only hope we can get to the heat without any "badly needed rain" :rolleyes:

Another totally dry day here, 19th in a row.

Hoping we get lots of rain over the next couple of days.

Only 4.8mm in three weeks here and ground is burning in places. 4mm of that was during the night.

Then very warm with thunderstorms later next week would be lovely.

OldRio

RobertKK wrote: »

Hoping we get lots of rain over the next couple of days.

Only 4.8mm in three weeks here and ground is burning in places. 4mm of that was during the night.

Then very warm with thunderstorms later next week would be lovely.

Well I hope YOU get your rain. Us living in other parts of Ireland do not need it.

RobertKK

OldRio wrote: »

Well I hope YOU get your rain. Us living in other parts of Ireland do not need it.

Thanks, it has been a very dry year so far.

First 6 months of the following years for my location just north of Kilkenny city.
2012: 444mm
2013: 351mm
2014: 523mm
2015 so far: 328mm

The rain over the weekend may bring it upto 2013 levels. In 2013 we had drought conditions in the Kilkenny/Laois/Carlow/Wexford area. Before the rain last night, it was near drought conditions as it was 0.8mm of rain in 20 days.

I like thunderstorms once they aren't too extreme, like in the mid 1980s. We hadn't many good thunderstorms in recent times in this area.

Kermit.de.frog

We are on the edge of heatwave conditions next week. Tuesday and Wednesday regardless should be particularly warm but will we see an upgrade for heat and sunshine or will the Atlantic make it's presence felt with cloud and dreariness?

It's up for grabs. Knife edge really.

WheatenBriar

Beautiful summer's day in Arklow and 22.5c again

Gonzo

21C and sunny, such a nice day.
Should be 20-25C over the next week.

Mars Bar

It's trying to rain here

Xenji

Been a lovely warm day in Castlebar today, but it looks and feels now that it is about to bucket down rain.

WheatenBriar

Peaking at 23.2 now in Arklow, not as hot as last Saturday but pretty fine from the summer that keeps on giving

Kermit.de.frog

Bit of an upgrade on the 12z GFS for next week. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday look very warm or hot locally with thunderstorms as well and maybe some imports from Britain and moving up from the Bay of Biscay too. Cloudier in the west though.

Schadenfreudia

The 20 day "drought" broke last night with 2.0mm of rain/showers. So that's it for another 3 to 5 years (or whatever the frequency of 20-day dry spells is)!

Beautiful day, sunny, warm (22.4C) and low humidity with a light westerly.

Looking forward to that real heat!

ComfortKid

Schadenfreudia wrote:

The 20 day "drought" broke last night with 2.0mm of rain/showers. So that's it for another 3 to 5 years (or whatever the frequency of 20-day dry spells is)!

Didn't we go over 30 days of drought 2 years ago.

Schadenfreudia

ComfortKid wrote: »

Didn't we go over 30 days of drought 2 years ago.

Yes but before that? Six years?

ComfortKid

Schadenfreudia wrote:

Yes but before that? Six years?

I miss read your post, thought you said 20 years. Sorry.
Anyway, it's about 12 hours since we got rain here, big dark clouds overhead now though. :-(