FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

Villain

Big changes between runs today
FI

maquiladora

Longboard wrote: »

24hrs on and a slight upgrade . . .

It's an upgrade in terms of the north atlantic wave heights, but in terms of conditions here the winds wouldn't really be severe on that run. Gusts up to 110 km/h on the west coast, standard winter stuff really.

There is a great deal of uncertainty at the moment though with this so I would wait a few more days to see how the models look then, all we can say now is there is an increased probability of wet/windy/stormy conditions next week but its too early to say more than that.

maquiladora

It's a very potent north Atlantic storm packing hurricane force winds on the 12Z GFS. But it's peaking way off south of Greenland rather than anywhere near here on this run.



UKMO is similar but weaker.



We'll see what the ECM shows later, but starting to look less interesting for us based on those 2 models.

AnotherYear

Yeah looks like a non event now

Kermit.de.frog

Increasing probability of some snow showers later Saturday night in to Sunday and on to Monday particularly in the north and west. Don't be surprised if some get a dusting.

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

If that pattern backs west a few hundred miles we would be looking at very different weather conditions... Models still interesting to me at the moment when you consider stratosphere developments- im thinking a dry period will appear for the end of this month followed by a cold pattern setting in around the 5th-10th of December and lasting a while. Just my opinion based on background winter signals as well as wave activity etc in the stratosphere.



Dan

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Just to continue on from this post from the 20th of November- while it looks like I was fairly accurate I thought we would be looking at a different type of cool/cold pattern by now. I think its going to be more of a slow burner though with some more mixed weather before a truely cold pattern emerges.

Potential still there for a big storm in the next ten days although I think we will avoid a 2013/14 winter style mini hurricane.

Mainly cold for the next week with just the odd milder day in between- periods of heavy rain/sleet/hail/snow will be common from the weekend on with a lucky few getting a dusting of snow even down to sea level at times I would think, especially in the north/north west. After the 10th of December I am thinking the polar vortex will be in a weak state and that the main lobe will transfer to Scandinavia/Siberia.. How much residual energy if any is left over NE Canada/Greenland is going to dictate wheather we see a straightforward route to colder weather with pressure rising over Greenland or a more messy setup. My thoughts on this combined with potential strat developments as we head later into this month make me think the last third will be the Coldest part of the month.

Encouraging runs today with a weakening Pv on the 12z ECM and progressively colder air being dragged in from the north west on all models.




Dan

YouTookMyName

Any updates on next weeks potential Storm?

maquiladora

YouTookMyName wrote: »

Any updates on next weeks potential Storm?

It's even further north on this morning's models. Centre is north of Iceland at 144 hours on the ECM :



But it's a very large area of low pressure so there may be secondary lows that might spin up closer to the time, we'll see.

geetar

maquiladora wrote: »

It's even further north on this morning's models. Centre is north of Iceland at 144 hours on the ECM :

But it's a very large area of low pressure so there may be secondary lows that might spin up closer to the time, we'll see.

Whats our best chance of it sucking in that high over Greenland that we're all desperately hoping for? Is it better to track further North over Iceland, or would we be better off having it pass over us like the earlier models were suggesting?

maquiladora

geetar wrote: »

Whats our best chance of it sucking in that high over Greenland that we're all desperately hoping for? Is it better to track further North over Iceland, or would we be better off having it pass over us like the earlier models were suggesting?

The model shows another low coming along over the top which prevent any ridging to Greenland.

maquiladora

At least one GFS ensemble member still wants to blow away all the outdoor Christmas decorations.

Storm 10

Jez that would be some storm if it happens, I seen on the paper today that the Eagle is concerned about the potential for storms next week.:D

maquiladora

One of the 12Z ensemble members throws out an absolutely insane sub-900mb low. Never seen anything like that in almost 10 years of looking at weather models. Low probability of happening... :P



For comparison, this was the 1993 Braer storm that holds the record for the most intense non-tropical Atlantic cyclone, estimated at 914mb and sustained winds close to 200 km/h at sea.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

One of the 12Z ensemble members throws out an absolutely insane sub-900mb low. Never seen anything like that in almost 10 years of looking at weather models. Low probability of happening... :P

:eek: :eek: :eek:

omicron

For reference, the night of the big wind in 1839, the strongest storm on record in Ireland, hit 918mb.

Clonmel1000

"In fact, potential storms are what would concern me next week, a bit like what we got last year.

Larbre34

900mb lows? FFS How do some of these ensemble members get taken seriously....

Iancar29

Larbre34 wrote: »

900mb lows? FFS How do some of these ensemble members get taken seriously....

12z Operational showing a "breezy" 925 so I wouldnt say its impossible..




Nice stronger Northerly way in FI land but yeah ... nice to see compared to last year!

Harps

Surprised at the lack of comments on the 12z gfs, big changes compared to last night/this morning with the low stalling and ridging towards Greenland. Wouldn't bring a widespread 'big freeze' but certainly the most wintry run I've seen in a while

icesnowfrost

U mean this........ drool stuff lol
FI

YouTookMyName

icesnowfrost wrote: »

U mean this........ drool stuff lol
FI

Thats a fair dump of snow right?

icesnowfrost

YouTookMyName wrote: »

Thats a fair dump of snow right?

It's FI and anything can happen between now and then

Nabber

2010 was reignited by Northerly if I recall correctly.

Fun times ahead. 100 miles here or there makes a hughe difference. It makes or model watching so fun. Who'd really want snow guaranteed every year? 😄

Iancar29

Hi Res for Sunday night showing snow above 350m .


And up north looks good for some moonlit cold convection cells !

BLIZZARD7

Bitter Northerly on its way to Ireland? Mmmm

BLIZZARD7

Really not a bad chart for mid December...

Kermit.de.frog

Yep but we will have to wait and see over the next few model runs whether we get any more of a height rise toward Greenland to prevent the flow collapsing. Certainly seen it before.

maquiladora

Nice to see but I never really get too excited about a toppler. There is just something sad about the fleeting inevitability about it ending almost as soon as it starts. :P

BLIZZARD7

maquiladora wrote: »

Nice to see but I never really get too excited about a toppler. There is just something sad about the fleeting inevitability about it ending almost as soon as it starts. :P

That is very true haha- interesting pressure rise to our north east into the arctic on the charts I posted however which may lead to something more interesting down the line...

xXxkorixXx

maquiladora wrote: »

Nice to see but I never really get too excited about a toppler. There is just something sad about the fleeting inevitability about it ending almost as soon as it starts. :P

Exactly, and being snow and cold lovers we never seem to get what we want, and it really isn't fair.. Let's just hope things pick up for us a bit 😋