FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

maquiladora

Nabber wrote: »

Looks like an end to the dry weather

I'm guessing that's a dynamic image because it's showing high pressure and and dry weather over Ireland now. :pac:

Nabber

maquiladora wrote: »

I'm guessing that's a dynamic image because it's showing high pressure and and dry weather over Ireland now. :pac:

Even worse. I copied the wrong image 😆

Lets try again,

Supercell

Full blown zonal on the way looking at the fax charts -

typhoony

only a short zonal spell on the cards, i was certain we were going to be stuck with a week or 2 of stormy conditions, not so and the the next high pressure next week is not a cold high like we've just had. but i would expect this time we get movement north and one final blast of winter.

Elmer Blooker

as expected the 18z churns out the usual nonsense.




see what I mean, guess which one will be correct?

maquiladora

ECM looking windy next Monday.



GFS looking stormy for the northwest.

vickers209

maquiladora wrote: »

ECM looking windy next Monday.

Looks like a big face 2 eyes and a mouth :eek:

Birdnuts

Very strong Jetstream and Polar Vortex for the time of year. All that cold air will hit us some time this Spring. Hopefully this side of Easter so that we can get some warmth going by May

typhoony

i'd be more concerned with the system that comes in on wednesday\Thursday next week. looks worse for Northern Ireland and Scotland. at least with this stormy weather in mid to late feb it could herald the start of an early spring as we head into March.

maquiladora

18Z GFS for next Monday looks stormy and maybe snowy for the West.

typhoony

the unsettled pattern is locked in for the next 7 days or so but it does look like these systems spawned off the east coast of the U.S will not be as frequent as it calms down over there. The 552dam line is making a concerted effort to persist over our latitudes as March begins, present indications point to a rapid increase in temperature and the arrival of spring.

Kermit.de.frog

GFS really winding things up for Sunday night but given that so far it's really on it's own with this it seems unlikely for the moment.

typhoony

So we're almost at the end of a 10 day unsettled spell, my opinions for early March havent changed since last week's comments and even if there is still a bit of amplification going on we are still going to be on the favorable settled side of this amplification and of course we still have to get through Sun\Mon bad weather. So in short after mid-week we get spring arriving.

Elmer Blooker

typhoony wrote: »

So we're almost at the end of a 10 day unsettled spell, my opinions for early March havent changed since last week's comments and even if there is still a bit of amplification going on we are still going to be on the favorable settled side of this amplification and of course we still have to get through Sun\Mon bad weather. So in short after mid-week we get spring arriving.

Spring? I wouldn't be too sure? The charts lately are beginning to have a 2013 look about them. We'll have to wait and see.

maquiladora

There's always one....

ninebeanrows

It was nice knowing ya Maq:eek:

maquiladora

Severe enough on the 18Z GFS operational.

150+ kmh gusts and deepening as it crosses the country at peak strength.




Sustained winds in the 120-130 km/h range on the coast.



Strictly FI stuff though as the latest ECM doesn't show this intense solution at all.

Kermit.de.frog

A large pinch of salt must be taken for the moment. It is important another model comes on board before attaching credibility right now.

maquiladora

The strong Sunday night/Monday morning low that the GFS was showing yesterday has now been dropped. Another win for the ECM, quelle surprise, but it's all part of the fun of FI land.

typhoony

The settled theme is pretty much nailed on to start on Thursday and lasting well beyond the weekend, in fact we have what's called a Bartlett High in situ by the weekend a term used mainly during winter to describe a particular patern that is hard to shift and all we have to worry about are the troublesome areas exposed to sea breezes. Initially the South and west coast will suffer but meanwhile inland and eastern areas getting the highest temperatures, then as the High meanders around the east coast could be set for a spell of cold on-shore winds as we go into next week as we get a continental drift

typhoony

it would feel almost summerlike with these temps...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.gif