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FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 Mod Note Post #1

Iancar29 · 2014-10-09 13:57:26

Mod Note This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS only i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards Please use the Winter 2014/15 chat thread or current event thread for everything else. Off Topic posts will be moved. Thanks First sight of snow for high ground in the north? :pac:

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#242 16-12-2014 2:45pm
Villain

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Rikand wrote: »

so maybe the Indo and that exactaweather guy were right ?

A stopped clock is correct twice a day!

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#243 16-12-2014 2:51pm
Sparks

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Villain wrote: »

A stopped clock is correct twice a day!

Er....

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#244 16-12-2014 3:00pm
Iancar29

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Strangegravy wrote: »

Snow in Cork on Christmas Eve??! It would definitely be a Christmas miracle...

Well done.. you probably just gave leahyl a mini heart attack ..

:rolleyes: :pac:

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#245 16-12-2014 3:13pm
Jimjay

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Sparks wrote: »

Er....

1:27pm and 47 seconds ? (Or am)

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#246 16-12-2014 3:14pm
Sparks

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Nope....

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#247 16-12-2014 3:31pm
leahyl

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I've learned to control my emotions when it comes to snow Iancar.....somewhat :pac:

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#248 16-12-2014 3:41pm
Villain

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Sparks wrote: »

Er....

I said stopped not fecked

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#249 16-12-2014 6:27pm
Iancar29

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Out by one day!!!

I'd still take it though , YES PLEASE! :pac:

EDIT! : HANG ON A SECOND HERE!

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#250 17-12-2014 1:22am
RED L4 0TH

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#251 17-12-2014 2:01am
icesnowfrost

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Christmas eve and Christmas day!!!!!!!! Fi but holy moly that came out of no were. (GEM)

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#252 17-12-2014 2:14am
Cork981

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The suspense of following this thread really does nearly kill me sometimes.

I can see that people are getting really excited about something but I have no idea what or why and I'll likely have to wait till the morning before someone tells me why ðŸ˜ž

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#253 17-12-2014 2:37am
barney 20v

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Cork981 wrote: »

The suspense of following this thread really does nearly kill me sometimes.

I can see that people are getting really excited about something but I have no idea what or why and I'll likely have to wait till the morning before someone tells me why ðŸ˜ž

No expert but .... What they're getting excited about is HIGHLY unlikely to happen .
Cold building (ish) for 29th dec - 5/6 jan though!

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#254 17-12-2014 3:14am
RED L4 0TH

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Cork981 wrote: »

The suspense of following this thread really does nearly kill me sometimes.

I can see that people are getting really excited about something but I have no idea what or why and I'll likely have to wait till the morning before someone tells me why ðŸ˜ž

The 850 hpa chart shows the temperature of the atmosphere at the height above the ground where the atmospheric pressure is 850 hpa (millibars). This is roughly 1500 metres. This height can can vary though. The temperature at this height is subject to much less variation through the day (diurnal variation) than at ground level. An 850 hpa temperature of around minus 8 (in degrees Celsius) can often be interpreted that any precipitation present may fall as snow at the surface. Of course such precipitation may not always be present (if theres a high pressure system around for example), even though the 850 hpa temperature may be favourable.

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#255 17-12-2014 12:11pm
Iancar29

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Keeping it short

ECM 00z- YES

GFS (P) 00z- YES

GFS(P) 06z - Not as good but still ok.

See yous all for the next loop in the rollercoaster at half 3 bells

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#256 17-12-2014 12:20pm
numilus cimbus

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JusT posted the following in the snow lovers thread by way of a guide as we are not there yet and some especially in that thread may not be aware of snow basics

-6 uppers are not cold enough for low ground snow in precipitation in off the Atlantic except well inland or in the Lee of hills
You'd only have a wintry mix with those uppers, with most populous places getting cold sleety rain showers
Those uppers even from the East/NE would be watery

For snow at all levels at uppers of say -2 to -6c you need either a blast of surface cold air(sea level to 1000ft) feeding in and negative dew points or you need an already local cold pool in situ from a previous cold spell typically with snow cover already well established

We got those things at times in 2010,they are not there in the Xmas day charts shown above though might develop gradually over the following week if a sinking piece of polar vortex drags down -9 ,-10 or colder uppers preferably from Scandinavia without the Atlantic mixing
A sustained northern flow will always veer between northwest and Northeast, so over time the flow would contain all the ingredients we got in 2010 meaning a lot of sea effect snow showers in Ulster north connaught,west Munster, Leinster and east Munster depending on the variation of northern on the day,north,northwest or northeast

So in a nutshell don't be expecting much at first, lets see what develops
Caveat too,this is all in FI yet.

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#257 17-12-2014 4:52pm
acassells80

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Iancar29 wrote: »

Keeping it short

ECM 00z- YES

GFS (P) 00z- YES

GFS(P) 06z - Not as good but still ok.

See yous all for the next loop in the rollercoaster at half 3 bells

Any new charts out yet?

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#258 17-12-2014 4:59pm
budweiser6

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Charts still rolling out and at 96 - about to start getting to the interesting part

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#259 17-12-2014 5:16pm
aisling86

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Would anyone be able to let me know where charts can be found - he weather freak in me is egar to learn!!

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#260 17-12-2014 5:19pm
cherryghost

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aisling86 wrote: »

Would anyone be able to let me know where charts can be found - he weather freak in me is egar to learn!!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

Rolls out every 6 hours

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#261 17-12-2014 5:20pm
Rikand

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aisling86 wrote: »

Would anyone be able to let me know where charts can be found - he weather freak in me is egar to learn!!

The Useful weather links thread at the top of the forum is another good place to go :: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056531638

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#262 17-12-2014 5:29pm
icesnowfrost

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still looking good on the 12h run just waiting on a few more

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9490/gfs-0-162_hph4.png

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#263 17-12-2014 5:32pm
leahyl

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icesnowfrost wrote: »

still looking good on the 12h run just waiting on a few more

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9490/gfs-0-162_hph4.png

No enough for South though?

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#264 17-12-2014 5:34pm
cherryghost

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Greenland high settled at +120 hours and sticking. Woo

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#265 17-12-2014 5:34pm
budweiser6

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Charts looking super to my amateur eye woo hoo!

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#266 17-12-2014 5:36pm
rickdangerouss

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That's all changed, +192 is not great at all. Now cold is pushed back to the 27th/28th.

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#267 17-12-2014 5:53pm
Iancar29

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GFS (P) on par with the ECM 00z ! :pac:

Heights steam rolling on up into Greenland ! :cool:

Jet Stream induces the nice northerly!

And on comes the cold air

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#268 17-12-2014 5:58pm
Iancar29

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rickdangerouss wrote: »

That's all changed, +192 is not great at all. Now cold is pushed back to the 27th/28th.

Even though we are under cool 850s at Christmas , there wasn't much potential for anything more than what we had last week due to the slack flow , only the N and NW with some hope for a White Christmas IMO

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#269 17-12-2014 6:05pm
icesnowfrost

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leahyl wrote: »

No enough for South though?

this would please u!
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7805/gfs-0-264_wat1.png

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#270 17-12-2014 6:10pm
Maidhci

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I'm not very good at reading / following / keeping up to-date with these charts - my main interest is whether there are any significant winter storms, similar to last year's in the pipeline, over the Christmas / New Year period? Hopefully not!

Would appreciate if someone who is knowledgeable in these matters would respond. Many thanks.

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#271 17-12-2014 6:49pm
icesnowfrost

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look at the GEM, my god that is windy and old and snowy.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8686/gem-0-180_qhw1.png

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FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

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FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 Mod Note Post #1