FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

Elmer Blooker

maquiladora wrote: »

Nice to see but I never really get too excited about a toppler. There is just something sad about the fleeting inevitability about it ending almost as soon as it starts. :P

Yes, topplers are just a pain in the neck in January and February when you just know that the winter is a dead loss but to get one at the start of winter may not be a bad thing, a few attempts may be required. A northerly at the start of a famous winter.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1962/Rrea00119621212.gif ........... and two days later.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1962/Rrea00119621214.gif

icesnowfrost

Still looks nice ......... hold.......hold.......HOLD!!!!!

Calibos

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Still looks nice ......... hold.......hold.......HOLD!!!!!

Stay on Target....STAY ON TARGET.......


It'll end like the scene that quotes from probably though

Villain

That chart on its own may be nice but the following charts after it are rather crap

vickers209

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Still looks nice ......... hold.......hold.......HOLD!!!!!

https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/

You have a voicemail:D

Harps

It's not the most exciting setup in the world but one week into the winter it's not a bad start, there should be some crisp frosty mornings this week with hill snow in the north and west. Here in London frost didn't melt all day in the shade today, I don't think that happened once all of last winter.

I haven't been keeping track of the stratosphere up to now but a quick look at the GFS shows that an SSW might be underway in a few weeks time, very much in line with netweathers forecast so potentially plenty of interesting times ahead yet

Smidge

Villain wrote: »

That chart on its own may be nice but the following charts after it are rather crap

*rollercoaster attempts first outing of the season and the Villain lives up to his name*

RED L4 0TH

Minus 6 uppers at +138 hrs on the latest GFS run. Coincides with some weak ridging pushing in though. So wouldn't get too excited re significant wintry precipitation.

BLIZZARD7

UKMO keeping the cold theme going at day 6... Ive noticed that the GFS +168 to +240 charts are getting alot more amplified when they enter the UKMO's range at days 5/6. Also a nice warming showing up in the strat on the GFS 12z.

Day 6 UKMO - potential for snow there...

force eleven

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1026&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

Some fantastic charts by the CFS model. Pity they are in January.

Iancar29

A low that needs to be kept an eye on..






this could bring snow to munster.. EVEN CORK CITY!
:pac:


Snow 4 you guys in london too !

red_bairn

Iancar29 wrote:

this could bring snow to munster.. EVEN CORK CITY! 

Gerrout of dat!?

icesnowfrost

Even the northeast

Iancar29

red_bairn wrote: »

Gerrout of dat!?

derekon

Poor ECM run this evening for cold lovers. OK not exactly mild but nothing worthy of snow. Ongoing westerlies right up to the 18th December indicating cool, windy and showery conditions.

There appears no end to the Atlantic flow of weather anytime soon.

However who knows, MT has indicated that things could change dramatically in just over a week and the models might not have a hold on this pattern yet. A long wait this year for snow in Ireland? :rolleyes: I suppose the killer is that the evenings get brighter from the 22nd December and the sun gets more of a look in.......:mad:

D

esposito

derekon wrote: »

Poor ECM run this evening for cold lovers. OK not exactly mild but nothing worthy of snow. Ongoing westerlies right up to the 18th December indicating cool, windy and showery conditions.

There appears no end to the Atlantic flow of weather anytime soon.

However who knows, MT has indicated that things could change dramatically in just over a week and the models might not have a hold on this pattern yet. A long wait this year for snow in Ireland? :rolleyes: I suppose the killer is that the evenings get brighter from the 22nd December and the sun gets more of a look in.......:mad:

D

Jeez somebody's pessimistic tonight. As you said things could take a dramatic twist in the next few weeks. Watch this space

Oneiric 3

Hardly worth putting much stock in really but this is what the ECM Ensemble mean is showing day 15. (the run up to Christmas)



I would say at face value that that particular chart hints at a more or less continuation of the current norm with cool, polar westerlies being the dominant force. There is nothing to suggest going by this chart that we won't get some breif northerly incursions either but my main concern is the incessent stream of warm heights exiting the Canadian Maritimes, as this seems to help diverge substantially warm air away from the N Atlantic. And thats last thing a big storm lover like me wants to see.

Image from WeatherBell.

icesnowfrost

GFS and the CMA are really going for it on Friday. All going well we could see a few snow showers slots anywhere

icesnowfrost

GFS and the CMA are really going for it on Friday. All going well we could see a few snow showers slots anywhere

Rebelbrowser

Things are getting interesting in the reliable period....

icesnowfrost

Nearly a cert at this stage

Trogdor

Shameless cherry-picking of charts here (purely for entertainment purposes), but ensemble 20 of the 06z shows a cold and maybe snowy christmas eve in places

AnotherYear

Met office 30 day outlook just for fun

UK Outlook for Monday 15 Dec 2014 to Wednesday 24 Dec 2014:
Cold and clear with dry and sunny conditions expected for many parts on Monday. However, there will be showery conditions following onto exposed northwestern coasts. Cloud and winds will then increase from the west with rain, and hill snow running along the leading edge, spreading into the far west later in the day. Through the rest of the week and in the run up to Christmas, conditions should remain unsettled with periods of rain and strong winds, interspersed with clearer, colder conditions with showers, these wintry at times, perhaps even to low levels in the north. There will be large differences in day to day temperatures dependant on each days weather, but perhaps averaging out slightly below normal.

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Dec 2014 to Thursday 8 Jan 2015:
The last week of December will most likely stay unsettled and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. It is likely that the UK will see cloudy periods with spells of rain, but that these will probably be interspersed by clearer and colder conditions with showers, which could turn wintry at times, mainly in the north. The most unsettled conditions are likely to be in the north and west. However, there is a signal that conditions may become colder particularly into the New Year, although the is a large amount of uncertainty surrounding this. Temperatures are expected be around average for the time of year, the may turn colder than normal in the New Year.

kkontour

AnotherYear wrote: »

.....

....However, there is a signal that conditions may become colder particularly into the New Year, although the is a large amount of uncertainty surrounding this. Temperatures are expected be around average for the time of year, the may turn colder than normal in the New Year.

Probably as a result of the strat warming due to take effect around 18th December
18th

26th

icesnowfrost

Fi.......But ahem!

Villain

Glad you found something to bring a bit of hope as GFS has nothing but crap in FI

JCX BXC

kkontour wrote: »

Probably as a result of the strat warming due to take effect around 18th December
18th

26th

I love the way -20 is shown as relatively mild in that :P

Trogdor

Some more cherry-picked charts for christmas day to keep your hopes up

icesnowfrost

Something to keep an eye on. Cold and very windy.

omicron

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Something to keep an eye on. Cold and very windy.

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