FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

WheatenBriar

I'd have thought FI is in broader terms for the moment back out at 120-144 now as there seems to be a consensus on the broad pattern for the moment,just not the micro details
It's not particularly exciting unless you're a mountainyman or plan to visit his ski resort

lucernarian

Suppose I argue it's t+72 which it's been described as in the past. Are we free to make a call on that ourselves or do the mods have something stricter in mind? I know what Fantasy Island "is" of course.

Btw I'd agree with wheatenbriar's assessment on this. Probably the t+120 mark.

Nabber

Try posting charts, the MODs give their free time to this. They made it easy, it's in the heading of the thread... technically +6hrs is FI. Anything that has yet to happen is FI. Then we have reliable predictions +72 at the moment, sometimes +96, but trust me you can't go wrong posting charts in the charts thread

Lools like Scandi is progged to cool down. Pathetic effort from europe west this year

lucernarian

There was a mod note a couple of days ago, didn't you see it? Is it so hard to ask to know what exactly the mods decided? It was because there was discussion on events only 2 and 3 days out.

Villain

FI varies but if there is thread for an event its prob best to use that.

Some signs of some Strat warming at the end of the month which may help with some cold in February, February was often our best month for Snow.

Lumi

lucernarian wrote: »

There was a mod note a couple of days ago, didn't you see it? Is it so hard to ask to know what exactly the mods decided? It was because there was discussion on events only 2 and 3 days out.

This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards
Any further queries PM one of the mods - don't respond on thread
Thanks

ZX7R

Nice looking chart

typhoony

the azores high has been the dominant factor this winter, it dropped south for the last 2 weeks however we can see this week how it has returned to dominate the North Atlantic, at least this means increasingly we will have a return of the south westerlies and milder air returning. The only hope we have now to get a proper cold spell is to see the Azores High to extend northerly either to Greenland or NE to Scandinavia.

typhoony

GFS 18Z might be onto something with a possible solution for cold weather, out in the unreliable timeframe +156 we see the azores high extend north towards greenland, this creates the desired WAA up the eastern side of Greenland and amplification in a favorable postion for the UK and Ireland with the building blocks for a northerly further down the line.

Nabber

So good you said it twice ☺

Azores has extended up to Greenland already. Nothing has been able to block the energy coming out of Can/USA coupled with an often and some what spectacular display by the jet stream.

FYI for people to see GFS +156

Capillatus

lucernarian wrote: »

Has there been any consensus established on what the new GSM model offers compared to the current GFS and ECMWF? I'm assuming that people would cite it first thanks to its superior resolution and particularly its better handling of stratospheric weather conditions. It seems to be an improvement for the most part during its parallel run with GFS. This link is taken from October

The new GFS has the model top at 0.3mb, which is pretty low for a model of such caliber. And the new GFS is quite worse regarding heights in the stratosphere, which makes it a bit worse for the modelling of stratospheric dynamics, despite being better at temperatures. Because the interactions with the troposphere come mostly by heights, not temperature. So the best models for stratosphere dynamics remain the ECM and JMA.

lucernarian

Capillatus wrote: »

The new GFS has the model top at 0.3mb, which is pretty low for a model of such caliber. And the new GFS is quite worse regarding heights in the stratosphere, which makes it a bit worse for the modelling of stratospheric dynamics, despite being better at temperatures. Because the interactions with the troposphere come mostly by heights, not temperature. So the best models for stratosphere dynamics remain the ECM and JMA.

I was reading a scorecard (https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5608/15009086654_1de12ffd6e_o.jpg) - taken form a post on weatherzone.com.au and had it in my head that the tropopause was at the 500 hPa level

icesnowfrost

all good on this one with the cold air originating from the northeast.

Elmer Blooker

Time to get the FI thread up and running again I think.
I've noticed a trend for pressure to fall in the Mediterranean area on recent runs as this stunner shows. You can see it on the previous the post too for example.
We still have that damn Azores though but a nice Arctic high as well.
edit: I posted this before I had a look at the GFS and they are remarkably similar at +240

typhoony

definitely a trend setting up with several of the models hinting at the azores high ridging north, i'd say it's 60/40 that we get a potent northerly in the next 2 weeks

gerrybhoy

typhoony wrote: »

definitely a trend setting up with several of the models hinting at the azores high ridging north, i'd say it's 60/40 that we get a potent northerly in the next 2 weeks

for us dummies when it comes to charts and the usual weather jargon, is that good or bad?

typhoony

gerrybhoy wrote: »

for us dummies when it comes to charts and the usual weather jargon, is that good or bad?

very good if you want to see winter return

gerrybhoy

typhoony wrote: »

very good if you want to see winter return

Maybe ties in with MT's thinking this morning regarding the 1st week of Feb and last few days of Jan;)

Nabber

So far out its not worth contemplating ☺

Iancar29

Nabber wrote: »

So far out its not worth contemplating ☺

I can't see anything exciting there tbh .. we want the WAA going up the west side of greenland and not towards iceland as this would usually end up giving us the cool 850hp air flow while say Scotland would get the real goods.

Still a bit out though yet as you say.

John.Icy

As nice as it is to see that we aren't getting stuck into a major rut, the most likely evolution after the likes of the ECM +240 or GEM would be the high falling over into Europe IMO. It's been a pretty common feature the last few days, heights nudging North out to our West only to be rolled over by the next low. There just always seems to be a big low primed to the East of Canada ready to spoil our fun. Plenty of the GEFS ensembles show this, getting close to some decent WAA but it just collapses. We want strong enough WAA and height rises to deflect these lows under any ridging, instead of over.

Early days yet though, nothing to say we won't eventually get some proper northern blocking going (all this warming jazz). Encouraging signs and at the very least with good indications ATM of a potent toppler scenario possible. Awaiting the 12z's with interest.

Elmer Blooker

Iancar29 wrote: »

I can't see anything exciting there tbh .. we want the WAA going up the west side of greenland and not towards iceland as this would usually end up giving us the cool 850hp air flow while say Scotland would get the real goods.

Still a bit out though yet as you say.

theres your WAA.
edit: (4 mins later) and then surprise surprise everything goes a***ways!!

Iancar29

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

theres your WAA.

Useless with a deep low beside it ready to tumble it east as per John.Icy 's comment.

Elmer Blooker

Now thats what I call a northerly - all the way from the Pole!
Chances of this chart actually happening - 0%

typhoony

all the models have been toying with the idea of a northerly with displacement\retrogression of the mid-atlantic high. I still think are chances are 60/40 as we head towards the end of next week, but it's long way off. and the other option i can imagine is the High sitting bang over us.

Nabber

You guys are talking big money stuff here. The lows dropping into europe as they are there is far better than the languishing up around Norway. The Azores high has then gone on the fill in with an all be it slack NW. These sloping lows offer at least a chance for the North to get some snow. If a low is to slide under to our SW, we still have a relatively warm europe, in as far as Poland. So we will need a block to hold for days. The models are showing Can upper temps to plummet again. So we can expect tge Atlantic to spin up a few storms. In some places there are uppers of -12 100km from +8. I don't think we will see any prolonged Northern block to allow temps to cool in Europe an filter across to Ireland. We are the last place to receive cold and the first to receive mild. We suffer so bad 😊

Elmer Blooker

Time to call it a day, over and out



December 2nd

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Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Thanks for cheering me up! All I can see at the moment is a depressing repeat of winters 11-12 and 13-14. That intense Azores is a worrying feature on all charts right out to FI and cannot be ignored - as long as its there we'll get nothing more than brief topplers. It can hang around for weeks if not months!

AnotherYear

Snow here for over a week elmer. So your original post was pointless. Hopefully your latest prediction leads to another week of snow with me before Winter is out. Keep them coming lol

gerrybhoy

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Time to call it a day, over and out



December 2nd

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no disrespect buddy,the folk more expert in the field seem to disagree,so I hope your talking piss

elastico

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Thanks for cheering me up! All I can see at the moment is a depressing repeat of winters 11-12 and 13-14. That intense Azores is a worrying feature on all charts right out to FI and cannot be ignored - as long as its there we'll get nothing more than brief topplers. It can hang around for weeks if not months!

My kids got to build a snowman this year, first time in their lives we had enough snow for it, glad you got it so wrong!

Also winter 13-14 gave us a storm factory which we have not seen at all this year.