FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 Mod Note Post #1

Oneiric 3 · 10-01-2015 10:04pm

maquiladora wrote: »

I remember some of the other models at the time showed more evenly spaced isobars and missed out on that detail which made the winds so strong over the south. It was the ECM and HIRLAM that nailed it pretty much perfectly.

Found the archives :

Put this satellite sequence together of the storm the day afterwards. (best watched with 'HD' button switched to on)

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=816706331679083&permPage=1

Redsunset · 10-01-2015 10:37pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Put this satellite sequence together of the storm the day afterwards. (best watched with 'HD' button switched to on)

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=816706331679083&permPage=1

Great stuff P.
Just beautiful images.
Also, Great updates folks.

maquiladora · 10-01-2015 11:08pm

18Z GFS is pretty strong. Compare these images to the archive one from the storm of Feb 12 last year posted earlier in the thread and it's in the same league if not a bit more intense. A higher res model would provide more detail.

18Z GFSP is a little weaker, though still windy enough.

snowinwinter · 10-01-2015 11:09pm

Ok well Tuesday is looking fantastic with a freezing level of 300m according to the net weather GFS.

But i'm not holding out any hope after today which I would've thought would have given us at least some snow.

Harps · 10-01-2015 11:31pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Would you have a link the that Harps? The mainstream outputs have mean speeds at a more modest 36 to 40 kts but this is most likely due to resolution limitations.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Tick model data from the menu on the right then click the cogwheel, ECMWF is on the drop down menu and the 'L' key on your keyboard moves forward the timestep

downwiththatsor · 10-01-2015 11:43pm

GFS 18z Snow Line, Water Equivalent Snow Depth from http://www.wetter3.de/animation.html
Tuesday at +72 hours, 16 kg/m2 no less:D

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 12:28am

Modified fax chart.

PPVM89.gif?31415

Oneiric 3 · 11-01-2015 1:01am

The ECM mean run seems to have the storm depression on track too.

Hopefully the trend is now in place.

leinad · 11-01-2015 2:54pm

Any more updates on wednesday?

legomaniac · 11-01-2015 3:06pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

they haven't downgraded just that its too far out to be certain either way. as maq said the likelihood is the models will change. they even say on their website there is a risk of stormy conditions next week.

leinad wrote: »

Any more updates on wednesday?

the good or bad news, depending on how you feel about powerful storms, is that consensus is shifting towards a downgrade. Well that's what I'm interpreting on these forums. I'm pleased... now don't get me wrong I love a good blast of a wind but not something that could cause death and damage

maquiladora · 11-01-2015 3:08pm

leinad wrote: »

Any more updates on wednesday?

There's a thread open for it now. Still uncertainty about it.

dublincelt · 11-01-2015 3:35pm

maquiladora wrote: »

There's a thread open for it now. Still uncertainty about it.

For once I am hopeful of a downgrade as I will be flying back into Dublin at 8pm on Wednesday and would hate to be diverted as happened to a lot of flights last week.

lucernarian · 12-01-2015 2:50pm

Has there been any consensus established on what the new GSM model offers compared to the current GFS and ECMWF? I'm assuming that people would cite it first thanks to its superior resolution and particularly its better handling of stratospheric weather conditions. It seems to be an improvement for the most part during its parallel run with GFS. This link is taken from October https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5608/15009086654_1de12ffd6e_o.jpg

AnotherYear · 12-01-2015 5:37pm

GFS(P) develops a Northerly and by t144 -8 uppers on the Northern coast.
gfs-1-144.png?12

-10 uppers flirting with the North coast at times and -8 uppers occupy part or all of Ireland from t144 to t198

Just one run as we all know but encouraging nonetheless

Gonzo · 12-01-2015 5:41pm

fingers crossed that the current setup over the next week will eventually turn into a more easterly affair over the next week or 2.

arctictree · 12-01-2015 11:35pm

Big change on the 18z GFS

icesnowfrost · 12-01-2015 11:45pm

arctictree wrote: »

Big change on the 18z GFS

care to elaborate

Reckless Abandonment · 12-01-2015 11:47pm

icesnowfrost wrote: »

care to elaborate

low slipping south and bringing a East north east flow. Looks good, but out in fi

icesnowfrost · 12-01-2015 11:50pm

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

low slipping south and bringing a East north east flow. Looks good, but out in fi

YOU MEAN LIKE THIS

ninebeanrows · 13-01-2015 11:55am

Whilst attention is drawn to other events, a steady change is occurring in the model output which could lead to a significant cold spell..

gfs-0-210.png?6

lucernarian · 13-01-2015 1:42pm

Desperately teasing. And a trend that doesn't look as inviting for cold on the other models. I'm very interested in seeing how this GSM model (called the GFS(P) very often for some reason by the model websites) handles easterly synoptics.

But much remains to be seen with the alignment of the jetstream over this part of the world.

kkontour · 13-01-2015 5:30pm

GFS(P) has some low temps in FI, cold but not too much precipitation

Reckless Abandonment · 13-01-2015 7:56pm

On mobile so can't post charts. But things looking good going forward. Dare I say easterly

lucernarian · 13-01-2015 9:16pm

Even by boards standards, t+240 is a long way out to start drooling!

I'd be looking that ridge to move northwestwards or at least westwards. Anything to get the 1025 hPa contour shifted northwards at least!

As we draw closer, the charts for 18th and 19th January will make or break the cold spell, particularly what the low pressure exiting Canada does.

elecktras weather bomb · 14-01-2015 12:50am

nearly fell out of the bed watching the GFS P come out. very exciting times indeed. anyone care to post some tasty charts.....I would if I could myself . cheers.

snowstorm445 · 14-01-2015 1:00am

Jaysus.

lucernarian · 14-01-2015 1:27am

As per the title:cool:

But they are some charts!! I suggest any snow fans avoid the 18z normal GFS run for t+192 however. All sorts of ugly shades of green and yellow over Ireland. The ECMWF 12z run is not encouraging either. The new GSM model is on a very interesting solo run though the UKMO offers it some very roughly similar synoptic support (http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011312/UW144-21.GIF)

RED L4 0TH · 14-01-2015 1:53am

Theres a note up on meteociel.fr that the GFS parallel model will become operational later today for the 12Z run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&runpara=1

lucernarian · 14-01-2015 1:57am

Will there be any access to the current as we now know it GFS runs and ensembles after tomorrow? It will be very useful to have the data. It would also be nice if they renamed it the GSM as per NOAA's plans as it will make forecasting comparisons easier.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 14-01-2015 11:38am

The GFS(P) seems to have stalled at +72 on meteociel

FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

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FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 Mod Note Post #1