FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

space2ground1

Kermit.de.frog are those low scale maps available to the public?

Elmer Blooker

elecktras weather bomb wrote: »

my shovel is getting ever closer to the back door guys. ECM at 144 is a cracker. what can possibly go wrong?

The Azores?



I'll get me coat and let myself out!!

Kermit.de.frog

space2ground1 wrote: »

Kermit.de.frog are those low scale maps available to the public?

Yep. Here...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0

space2ground1

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yep. Here...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0

Thanks a lot!

Oneiric 3

Tonight's ECM shows nothing more than a few light coastal flurries along eastern coastal districts at 144hrs. Quite possible that it is under-doing this though, so more runs needed.

esposito

Not looking good is it? Knew this would happen. All FI I know but can't help thinking thats its all gonna fizzle out by next wed:(

patneve2

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Tonight's ECM shows nothing more than a few light coastal flurries along eastern coastal districts at 144hrs. Quite possible that it is under-doing this though, so more runs needed.

While far from being a spectacular chart, I'm sure that if that 144 hr chart verified there would be more than a few coastal flurries. Well, to be precise there would be moderate wet snow and graupel showers on the coast with the snow-line around 100-200 meters. Irish Sea ssts still relatively warm at about 9-10 degrees so there would be a good enough air/sea difference of about 16-17 degrees. All pointless talk at this stage though.
edit: possibly you were talking about the 168 hr chart.

space2ground1

Its a bit like sitting down for two weeks watching who the computers think will win the football next week.. and then getting frustrated that the results are completely different.


.. and doing it 5 times a year for 5 years.

WheatenBriar

By the way,when I spoke about ignoring FI eye candy in my last post Untill we get though past Tuesday and where our new low goes,I meant to say also ignore anything else that might crop up past mid week too
They are all solutions but there is only going to be one solution and it's safe to say it's an unknown this far out tbh

maquiladora

WheatenBriar wrote: »

By the way,when I spoke about ignoring FI eye candy in my last post Untill we get though past Tuesday and where our new low goes,I meant to say also ignore anything else that might crop up past mid week too
They are all solutions but there is only going to be one solution and it's safe to say it's an unknown this far out tbh

Yeah but...this is the thread for FI charts...

WheatenBriar

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah but...this is the thread for FI charts...

ah for fceks sake I didn't say stop talking about them
I was speaking to the ever hopeful gallery who are all popping in to this thread looking for hope and despairing at times
I think you've calmed the masses many times anyway by making that point clear

123 LC

A question from a newb...what do the stripey lines indicate for precipitation?

WheatenBriar

Risque de neige
It's where precip is supposed to be snow not rain
Usually very inaccurate

Tom Cruises Left Nut

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Risque de neige
It's where precip is supposed to be snow not rain
Usually very inaccurate

If you are new to charts though it can help you see what other synoptics show snow from the pressure charts, 850 temp charts etc.

If you see a price chart with those lines on it check those other charts and learn

Rebelbrowser

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

If you are new to charts though it can help you see what other synoptics show snow from the pressure charts, 850 temp charts etc.

If you see a price chart with those lines on it check those other charts and learn

The pink / blue ppn charts on weatheronline are a lot better. Gfs predicts snow for Cork about 50 times a year if you go by the stripes!

Oneiric 3

patneve2 wrote: »

edit: possibly you were talking about the 168 hr chart.

It was the 144 hr chart I was talking out:



As I said, it could well be underdoing intensity for this time, although troughing at 500 hPa is not projected to be particularly deep which may be why the ECM is possibly keeping things tame for now.

TheMilkyPirate

18Z time, The ever fantastic pub run.

Just got laid off work for three weeks tonight as well, Timing eh?

Cantonesque

Pub run must have been like a pint that looked good when you were served it but turned into a flat heinek**n when the lights come on in the night club at 2.00 am!!

Here's hoping the pints become slush puppies next week!!

TheMilkyPirate

Decent run, Nice easterly at +162 hangs around a bit longer this time too. Also develops a scandy high Later Thursday.

Far away but nice to see these things in the models.

KingdomRushed

Well downgrades galore across the models with modelled easterly influence that was showing for next week in recent days now vanished.

As usual the sulking has started on netweather as this must have seemed tantalisingly close for those in eastern England.

Thing about things that show in the models that disappear is that they never existed. So that 'where's my easterly' tantrum or 'where's my greenie high'? Well it never existed only in a computer. Thems the breaks. 9/10 these phantom easterlies have rotted away to nothing in the models, apart from the ones that show in March. They seem to follow through.

Short term, parts of Ireland should see snow in next 5 days though. Met have a warning for today for east and north. The 5 day forecast on their website is easily the wintriest since December 2010. No joke

kstand

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Well downgrades galore across the models with modelled easterly influence that was showing for next week in recent days now vanished.

As usual the sulking has started on netweather as this must have seemed tantalisingly close for those in eastern England.

Thing about things that show in the models that disappear is that they never existed. So that 'where's my easterly' tantrum or 'where's my greenie high'? Well it never existed only in a computer. Thems the breaks. 9/10 these phantom easterlies have rotted away to nothing in the models, apart from the ones that show in March. They seem to follow through.

Short term, parts of Ireland should see snow in next 5 days though. Met have a warning for today for east and north. The 5 day forecast on their website is easily the wintriest since December 2010. No joke

Hear hear. Dont know why mods dont just ban people who come on posting infantile rubbish when a model run goes against what they were hoping for.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Its still in FI though to be fair, lets see what the 6z run brings us

Strangegravy

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

Its still in FI though to be fair, lets see what the 6z run brings us

That's true, the good charts are FI, but so are the bad charts. Gotta look at both with a neutral view.

48hrs beforehand let yourself get a little excited, but only rejoice when that white gold is actually falling on your car and the wife is giving out about the drive to work next morning!

John.Icy

I am failing really to see this downgrade on the 0z GFS at least with regards to the post Tuesday 'easterly'. Go back and check every run till now and 95% of them have the high collapsing over us quick enough. Bar one or two runs, nothing that good gets going. People see easterlies and blues on a chart, but dismiss the fact that the pressure is 1025hPa and good luck getting more than snizzle out of that. Variations on a theme with GFS with how quick the high falls on us and the strength of an easterly it pulls in before doing so.

EDIT: The ECM however, yikes. GFS is a lone wolf it seems keeping the Tuesday low moving south as previous runs. You'd be crazy (but maybe not wrong) to not side with the ECM and UKMO but more runs needed.

munsterlegend

John.Icy wrote: »

I am failing really to see this downgrade on the 0z GFS at least with regards to the post Tuesday 'easterly'. Go back and check every run till now and 95% of them have the high collapsing over us quick enough. Bar one or two runs, nothing that good gets going. People see easterlies and blues on a chart, but dismiss the fact that the pressure is 1025hPa and good luck getting more than snizzle out of that. Variations on a theme with GFS with how quick the high falls on us.

EDIT: The ECM however, yikes.

Met Eireann based on the ECM no doubt going for a milder outlook later next week. I note Ian Ferguson said speculating about a return to milder conditions is very premature at present. i know he is in the Uk but just shows that the models are flipping back and forth.

KingdomRushed

John.Icy wrote: »

I am failing really to see this downgrade on the 0z GFS at least with regards to the post Tuesday 'easterly'. Go back and check every run till now and 95% of them have the high collapsing over us quick enough. Bar one or two runs, nothing that good gets going. People see easterlies and blues on a chart, but dismiss the fact that the pressure is 1025hPa and good luck getting more than snizzle out of that. Variations on a theme with GFS with how quick the high falls on us and the strength of an easterly it pulls in before doing so.

EDIT: The ECM however, yikes. GFS is a lone wolf it seems keeping the Tuesday low moving south as previous runs. You'd be crazy (but maybe not wrong) to not side with the ECM and UKMO but more runs needed.

I dunno 4 or 5 GFS runs and much large number of ensembles were weighted towards easterly winds over ireland with cold uppers in last 3 days. This is disappearing. I'm just commenting on what I saw in the models.

Curious why 'yikes' regarding ECM?

John.Icy

KingdomRushed wrote: »

I dunno 4 or 5 GFS runs and much large number of ensembles were weighted towards easterly winds over ireland with cold uppers in last 3 days. This is disappearing. I'm just commenting on what I saw in the models.

Curious why 'yikes' regarding ECM?

We'll GFS still brings in an easterly, it's just slacker and the high is more eager to collapse over us, which has been the most popular outcome since the start after a brief easterly. I myself can remember two 18z that we're very good, but at the end of the day that's the 18z.

Regards ECM, the sinking of the low from Tuesday is dire & high pressure stays rooted to our SW, not good.

John.Icy

And the 6z has now followed a more ECM pathway. We can hope they all change back but I can't recall a time when the ECM has changed over, to be followed by the GFS, only for them all to swap back. 6z does go on to try again with another southerly moving low. Post Monday is probably still undecided.

munsterlegend

John.Icy wrote: »

And the 6z has now followed a more ECM pathway. We can hope they all change back but I can't recall a time when the ECM has changed over, to be followed by the GFS, only for them all to swap back. 6z does go on to try again with another southerly moving low. Post Monday is probably still undecided.

It seems to me that for detail in this part of the world the only model worth following is the ECM. The GFS is fine for looking at trends and tracking details over north america but for this tiny island it can't be relied upon.

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

It seems to me that for detail in this part of the world the only model worth following is the ECM. The GFS is fine for looking at trends and tracking details over north america but for this tiny island it can't be relied upon.

Agreed. Also, just on the basis of casually following the models over the last few months, the new GFS seems no huge improvement to me anyway.