FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

Nabber

These charts are terrible. Don't bother looking at them



Snow cover from GFS up to 180hours .... Munster, nothing for you to see here!!!


19 Perturbations of the CMC GEM Ensembles all at +162 except Per+2 which I ****ed up

lucernarian

Many of these charts are from a model that is having its first operational runs today. It's worth remembering that!

bajer101

lucernarian wrote: »

Many of these charts are from a model that is having its first operational runs today. It's worth remembering that!

That may be true, but it wasn't just released without ample testing. It has been running in parallel to the previous operational model for a while and the decision to make it the Op wouldn't have been taken lightly. And it has performed very well with these recent erratic events.

Nabber

Nothing is worth remembering
This is FI. We care not for logic nor past outcomes or sensible prediction.

If it means snow, we accept all sources. How many bees landed on a certain flower in June, The postman, Madden, Dark Man, fortune cookies... If they predict snow, we welcome them into this thread..... Put it into a crude homemade chart and post it up here for all to enjoy.


Just to balance it off with a respected and accepted model.

Easterly Beasterly

Can't post charts but this morning GFS in nowhere near as good as last night's. The cold never really reaches Ireland. UK MO looks slightly better. It will be interesting to see if MetE drop the snow risk further East from this mornings forecast.

KingdomRushed

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

Can't post charts but this morning GFS in nowhere near as good as last night's. The cold never really reaches Ireland. UK MO looks slightly better. It will be interesting to see if MetE drop the snow risk further East from this mornings forecast.

They keep the short term snow risk for Monday on met.ie. Bur overall the usual rot from the amazing synoptics looks to be setting in, with long term cold prospects well diminished on this mornings output anyway

snowstorm445

Well tbf most of these amazing charts were in FI territory. Not at all surprising that they should downgrade, this is almost always the case. Lets see what happens though, only one set of runs.

WheatenBriar

The problem is the cold in the states,it's fuel for lows with nowhere to slide only in from the northwest regardless of what's going on East of here
Not enough Atlantic blocking to stop this

Easterlies are notoriously hard to keep going and slider lows that meander near Ireland are a c0ck block to those as they both mix in too much warm air or send the cold down towards Iberia
The ECM 11 day + anomaly charts which I can't post tend to support this.

Look for northeasterlies btw if this ever gets legs,more fetch

Reckless Abandonment

I don't think we should be to worried about downgrades . The models always chop and change a lot when the normal pattern of westerlies could be distributed. Things in my eyes look good for Cold/very cold weather . There's a lot of cold air about. I for one am enjoying this winters model watching

icesnowfrost

C'mon boys and girls one set of runs does not define the outcome. Just see wat happens between today and tomorrow. By tomorrow we should have a clear enough picture for next week (Monday Tuesday Wednesday ) at least

WheatenBriar

icesnowfrost wrote: »

C'mon boys and girls one set of runs does not define the outcome. Just see wat happens between today and tomorrow. By tomorrow we should have a clear enough picture for next week (Monday Tuesday Wednesday ) at least

Well it's only analysis
Monday Tuesday cold seems locked in sleet and snow showers wise (looking at the human modified UKMO faxes) but there's an ongoing threat of lows from the north west sucking in milder air
Remember what we got Tuesday was the result of super fast Canadian cold racing south and east, but look what happened in a very short time,a storm bringing a thaw and snow retreating to height before returning again
You absolutely could do without that Atlantic energy in the baby stages of a cold set up because it usually envelopes Ireland, leaving the cold stop at Kent

It's a peculiar set up,I don't recall similar in my 30 odd years of weather watching in the sense of cold advecting and mixing from East and north West and basically everywhere bar true S and SW
In my experience,I don't know what to think except it's fascinating
Lots of model flips to come for sure

TheMilkyPirate

06Z is better than the 00Z at least. Nice fetch by noon Friday.

KingdomRushed

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

06Z is better than the 00Z at least. Nice fetch by Noon Friday

Yes it's a cold run indeed. Not explosively January 1987 so, but surely snow risk for many.

Rebelbrowser

WheatenBriar wrote: »

The problem is the cold in the states,it's fuel for lows with nowhere to slide only in from the northwest regardless of what's going on East of here
Not enough Atlantic blocking to stop this

Easterlies are notoriously hard to keep going and slider lows that meander near Ireland are a c0ck block to those as they both mix in too much warm air or send the cold down towards Iberia
The ECM 11 day + anomaly charts which I can't post tend to support this.

Look for northeasterlies btw if this ever gets legs,more fetch

I remember there used to a poster called White Briar who posted very similarly last year when models showed a tentative Easterly! Sadly he was right.........

KingdomRushed

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I remember there used to a poster called White Briar who posted very similarly last year when models showed a tentative Easterly! Sadly he was right.........

Yes but the jet-stream is further south this year, and even Wheaten Briar acknowledges these synoptics are quite unusual to him. We are in a completely different place than last year. The PM flow us delivering cold weather and snow for many too. This did not occur during last year's storms

Rebelbrowser

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Yes but the jet-stream is further south this year, and even Wheaten Briar acknowledges these synoptics are quite unusual to him. We are in a completely different place than last year. The PM flow us delivering cold weather and snow for many too. This did not occur during last year's storms

All accepted. There's no bigger snow bunny than me anyway so it's the converted you are talking to! In fact the most promising thing for me is that the professionals seem to be correcting the model data to a colder outcome which is the opposite of the norm.

Easterly Beasterly

I think there is an element of "Dont believe it until I see it" because there have been so many let downs and close calls over the past 4 years. I think the signs are good this time around. All the main models are on board for some degree of cold snap next week although they have different variations. From what I remember this was the same in 2009/2010. I remember some dodgy runs on the run up and alot of people freaking out. I'm not saying this is going to be the same but we just dont know. In my opinion it's the best chance in the past few years.

What is also interesting is that Met Eireann mentioned it very early with the talk of snow next week so there must be some confidence there in a colder outcome and remember they have access to lots of data that we dont. For me cold spells are kinda like Christmas, I enjoy the build up as much as the event. So enjoy the model runs over the next few days, regardless of what happens, it wont be too long until we have a raging polar vortex and Westerly Winds!

Calibos

Its like an Eagles Reunion here at the moment. Next week must look like a big 'Payday' to get them all in the same 'Venue' as each other again. Gonna enjoy the show while it lasts but you know the band will split again after a while

Easterly Beasterly

Calibos wrote: »

Its like an Eagles Reunion here at the moment. Next week must look like a big 'Payday' to get them all in the same 'Venue' as each other again. Gonna enjoy the show while it lasts but you know the band will split again after a while

Oh Calibos, I think everyone is lurking on here whether they post or not! I remember your posts from 2010, I was living in Bray at the time, just off Killarney Road and saw the IOM Shadow first hand, we still did ok though! I'll see you back here at 4pm for a good old fashioned GFS Upgrade!

Macy0161

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

Oh Calibos, I think everyone is lurking on here whether they post or not!

Eagles analogy is right - these threads are like the Hotel (or Rollercoaster) California, you can check out, but never leave!

space2ground1

What are the form models to watch at this point? GFS Parallel & ECM are what I've been keeping an eye on.

Is the delay also around 4 hours for the ECM?

Iancar29

space2ground1 wrote: »

What are the form models to watch at this point? GFS Parallel & ECM are what I've been keeping an eye on.

Is the delay also around 4 hours for the ECM?

GFS P is now the operational (NORMAL ) GFS which will start rolling out shortly along with the GEM and UKMO

The ECM is about half 6.

icesnowfrost

Iancar29 wrote: »

GFS P is now the operational (NORMAL ) GFS which will start rolling out shortly along with the GEM and UKMO

The ECM is about half 6.

thank god for that i was wondering what happened to the gfs p as it was no longer an option to pick over the gfs.

icesnowfrost

gfs 12z has us in a nice northerly on sunday +66hrs

Iancar29

Extreme battleground kind of event , frontal rain plowing into cold enough air for snow :cool:

maquiladora

Tis a cauld wan in the northwest on this night.

WheatenBriar

I'd stay well clear of those snow risk charts and precip charts that far out,totally unreliable
We seem to have a meandering new low to deal with early next week according to both the UKMO and the GFS,I wouldn't trust where that goes yet so wouldn't dare bet on any late week eye candy Untill it goes

You see in any easterly I've witnessed that was worth a damn,lows were coming in South of Ireland and in over the Channel Islands
The scenario we have now is very very different
You may notice that the UK met office forecasters are tentatively talking about the coldest in two years,thats no good and tells us nothing of what they're thinking
Their brief includes a lot of parts of the UK though that would see snow in conditions we'd see none,bare that in mind

Anyhow,there's every chance of snow in favoured areas in the coming days,especially high ground,I'm not excited about the here and now up to Tuesday,but the where it takes us and currently there's a lot going on that could construct something special later with a bit of luck?

elecktras weather bomb

my shovel is getting ever closer to the back door guys. ECM at 144 is a cracker. what can possibly go wrong?

maquiladora

elecktras weather bomb wrote: »

my shovel is getting ever closer to the back door guys. ECM at 144 is a cracker. what can possibly go wrong?

Kermit.de.frog

elecktras weather bomb wrote: »

my shovel is getting ever closer to the back door guys. ECM at 144 is a cracker. what can possibly go wrong?

Cold enough for snow, just about, but short lived. Plenty of evolution to come in this though tomorrow on the models.