National Hunt 14/15 thread

Peintre Celebre

irish_major wrote: »

Why you would back a horse in november for the champion bumper is beyond me.

And one that had never ran under rules. He would have needed to win by a distance to see a drastic cut in his odds. Each to their own but madness I think

bellybuster12

shy-tall-knight wrote: »

No sign of Flemenstar this season and no entry for him in the John Durkan. Anyone know anything about his well-being?

http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=549547&lid=&raceid=&title=Flemenstar+future+dictated+by+scan&ref=PA+Racing+Feed&nav=home&sub=&day=Thu

posturingpat

I'd also be someone weary of backing bumper horses antepost.
I remember a pal of mine getting told to back Silver Concorde for the 2012 bumper in the January of that year,he cam 3rd that day behind Jezki and Ned Buntline and was removed from the betting. He ran once later that year finishing 2nd before winning over Christmas last year. His next run was in the 2014 bumper at 16/1 or so and had my friend copped the horse? Not a bit of it the poor lad.

shmeee

irish_major wrote: »

Why you would back a horse in november for the champion bumper is beyond me.

I knew today in Thurles he would be odds on and very short. Was 4/9 by the time I got to check the price this morning at around 11am. Wasn't for me to lump on and make a quick buck at that price FTO.

So said I'd have a punt Ante Post last night, I might only back a handful Ante Post horses a year and when at a price. Had the last 2 supreme winners done at double figures and was happy they clicked. Again, stakes reflect the nature of the bet and didn't get rich by any means, paid for a few pints and bets that week and was gone before I knew it.

I backed him purely for the interest over the coming months, I was told by a friend about this certain horse a good while back and to have a punt for the champion bumper. He got on @ 40/1 at the time. He has been cut another 5pts with bet365 today and 4pts with PP.

I enjoy a few Ante Post selections and following them over the coming months and seeing the price either drop or increase and then the buzz when you've a horse going off @ 6s when you got 20s Ante.

Each to there own I suppose, but I'd rather throw a score e/w or so on one that I can follow on the NH scene over the next few months, over an outsider in Kempton on a dirty Thursday night in a Class 6.

madmoose

Hope we see tell us more at gowran tomorrow, could be another superstar for willie going on his p2p and bumper performance and ive got a few £ on at 20/1 for the neptune. Got the same on faugheen sept last year and that worked out fine.

posturingpat

madmoose wrote: »

Hope we see tell us more at gowran tomorrow, could be another superstar for willie going on his p2p and bumper performance and ive got a few £ on at 20/1 for the neptune. Got the same on faugheen sept last year and that worked out fine.

Hearing a lot about this Tell us More horse myself but mostly from lads i wouldn't pay much credence to,could be just another one of these horses that someone heard Paddy Mullins say in a pub was a nice sort and someone got carried away. Not to say he won't be good but i'd be weary enough.

Oscars Well.

posturingpat wrote: »

Hearing a lot about this Tell us More horse myself but mostly from lads i wouldn't pay much credence to,could be just another one of these horses that someone heard Paddy Mullins say in a pub was a nice sort and someone got carried away. Not to say he won't be good but i'd be weary enough.

Cost £290k from the Codds and was nowhere near 100% when he routed the field in his bumper, albeit a poor field

posturingpat

Oscars Well. wrote: »

Cost £290k from the Codds and was nowhere near 100% when he routed the field in his bumper, albeit a poor field

I know all this but ever since Teelin star i try not get carrried away,remember him,ha the next Denman apparently.

skippymac6

posturingpat wrote: »

I know all this but ever since Teelin star i try not get carrried away,remember him,ha the next Denman apparently.

Was there that day in Fairyhouse when he was odds on for the point to point bumper. Brutal.

ste2010

Anyone know anything about what's happening with rathvinden?

posturingpat

ste2010 wrote: »

Anyone know anything about what's happening with rathvinden?

He was one i was interested in as a Novice chaser but I've been informed he's out for the season unfortunately

nobody told me

ste2010 wrote: »

Anyone know anything about what's happening with rathvinden?

Listened to a podcast a few weeks ago and patrick said he was still at his owners

posturingpat

Nice performance by tell us more. Decent jumper and certainly has an engine. Hard to know what he beat but can only beat whats in front of him

Harry Angstrom

Impressive from Faugheen but bookies shouldn't be shortening him for the CH after beating a few donkeys.

paddyisreal

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Impressive from Faugheen but bookies shouldn't be shortening him for the CH after beating a few donkeys.

Looks a bit of a bridle horsevto me snd his jumping is not great. Woukd be laying him in the champion hurdle meself

ste2010

paddyisreal wrote: »

Looks a bit of a bridle horsevto me snd his jumping is not great. Woukd be laying him in the champion hurdle meself

Best of luck with that :-) faugheen will put 5ls between the field champion hurdle day

ste2010

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Impressive from Faugheen but bookies shouldn't be shortening him for the CH after beating a few donkeys.

It's border line idiotic to reduce him like that if it's a reflection of his performance..
Not like he was priced fairly before the race anyway

klairondavis

I would share the reservations about his jumping but he is far from a bridle horse especially over two miles. He smashed up Josses Hill in a bumper and won over three miles at Limerick last Christmas. He will be finding plenty late on when others have cried enough.

ste2010

I'd be full on cue card again today..darryl Jacob has left my finger hovering on the trigger unfortunately

posturingpat

Bookies really do have the best job in the world. People backing Faugheen at 11/4 are slightly mad,people backing him today at even shorter should sign themselves into the mental asylum.

Soft Falling Rain

Impressive wins from both TNO and Faugheen. You could argue TNO was in a better race but the acceleration that Faugheen showed was scary.

Huntley

Huntley wrote: »

As someone who staunchly followed TDS last year I had high hopes for him in this years staying division. That effort today was very disappointing, he was soundly beaten and with the weight and fitness advantage it was a tame display. He ran on at the end but it wasn't a performance that would put him anywhere near the top of this years stayers. He seems to hold plenty back for himself as well, wouldn't be surprised to see them try something to sharpen him up next time.

I'm very much of the thinking that Silviniaco Conti wins the Betfair.

Perplexing from Taquin Du Seuil. The angle with the headgear was good but it would have required him to get to the business end of the race to see the effect. The Gold Cup isn't out of the equation yet however.

Silviniaco Conti is a phenomenal animal. That was as brutal a race as you'll see today and he wasn't found wanting when others had enough.

paddyisreal

ste2010 wrote: »

Best of luck with that :-) faugheen will put 5ls between the field champion hurdle day

Fair enough thats your opinion. The reason i will be laying him is very simple....winning races in small fields and been allowed set your own pace is in a different league to the champion hurdle in march. He still has it all to prove imo.

jimjamcos

I'm a massive fan (like all who had him antepost last season) but Faugheen's price now is disgraceful given he's yet to face open Gr1 company. Also with Hurricane Fly sure to lineup against Jezki at Leopardstown at Christmas and Ricci touting Kempton for Faugheen (he'll avoid TNO there too) it's likely to be January when he faces his first real test and even then it's conceivable he'll avoid HF if The Fly's on for a hatrick. He's 9/4 now but very very hard to justify that given time before festival and what he'll have likely beaten before then

Harry Angstrom

Silviniaco Conti is a great bet at 4/1 for the King George. I expect him to be a much shorter price on the day. There are too many question marks about Simonsig. Al Ferof isn't a 3 miler. Champagne Fever likewise. Dynaste and Cue Card were beaten easily by Silviniaco in last year's race and there's no reason why this year should be any different. 4/1 is a very nice price for SC.

jimjamcos

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Silviniaco Conti is a great bet at 4/1 for the King George. I expect him to be a much shorter price on the day. There are too many question marks about Simonsig. Al Ferof isn't a 3 miler. Champagne Fever likewise. Dynaste and Cue Card were beaten easily by Silviniaco in last year's race and there's no reason why this year should be any different. 4/1 is a very nice price for SC.

Not sure how you can be so confident Champagne Fever will not get 3m. Absolutely nothing to prove whether he can or can't, but breeding suggests the former. Same with Simonsig. I agree though, Silvinianco has to be the definition of a ew bet to nothing! Can see Simonsig or CF beating him but very hard to see 3 horses finish ahead of him given the older horses have tried and failed.

oPATCHo

I agree with Conti for KG and 4/1 is a decent price, although think the best bet would have been Conti a Betfair Chase + KG double.
Less keen on the KG and GC double, although I think he's a good horse I'm not sure he could run in and win 3 big races.

Faugheen is a beast. Wouldnt lump on at him with the current ante post price... I probaby end up having him in a few accum's closer to the date

Shemale

Simonsig looks a smashing bet at 5/1 for the King George.

Faugheen's price is insane.

mr.jingle

Regardless of opposition, you'd have to be impressed with Vautour there.

jimjamcos

A piece of schooling but Vautour jumped lovely there!