National Hunt 14/15 thread

coopdog85

mr.jingle wrote: »

It would look that way, possibly the next Quevega and we will end up not truly finding out how good she is just like the aforementioned

I mentioned it here about a month or so ago that Annie Power would never jump a fence. The horse is too valuable & that's from the man himself.

Backstreet Moyes

Surely she wins the world hurdle and let Glends Melody win the mares.

jimjamcos

Nuts102 wrote: »

Surely she wins the world hurdle and let Glends Melody win the mares.

It's all about Gr1 winners with Willie so once the race was upgraded to that, she was always going there. They wouldn't trust Glens Melody to win it and Annie will do so in reverse.

posturingpat

Gringo180 wrote: »

Any reason why you think he wont come back to his best? Hes only ran a handful of times in the last 2 years.

Only ran a handful of times because he's notoriously difficult to get right. Last season he wasn't himself in my opinion if he was he would've flew up the hill last year and won cosily. That was also the first time he was beaten after getting his head in front in a race.
People seem to forget just how tough a race the Gold cup is on horses an what it takes out of a lot of them.
It's very difficult to win 2 Gold cups and we've been blessed in the last 10 years or so with Best mate and Kauto star.

posturingpat

Gringo180 wrote: »

Looking forward to his return. An absolute machine this animal is.

Not meaning to disagree with everything that's posted here lads as i'm sure that's how it's coming across but Simonsig's another horse i can't fathom the excitement behind him as a potential Gold cup animal.

He jumped poorly during his Novice campaign and will have to have improved his jumping a tonne. He also pulled Geraghtys arms out over 2 mile and 2 mile 4 so he'll have to have learnt to settle since then if he's going to stay 3mile 2f at the top level(i know he won p2p's) and he has never ran in open company yet. Then there's the fact he's been out for about 20 months and it's very hard to come back. He's another i'd be avoiding until he shows me he's got it.

jimjamcos

posturingpat wrote: »

Not meaning to disagree with everything that's posted here lads as i'm sure that's how it's coming across but Simonsig's another horse i can't fathom the excitement behind him as a potential Gold cup animal.

He jumped poorly during his Novice campaign and will have to have improved his jumping a tonne. He also pulled Geraghtys arms out over 2 mile and 2 mile 4 so he'll have to have learnt to settle since then if he's going to stay 3mile 2f at the top level(i know he won p2p's) and he has never ran in open company yet. Then there's the fact he's been out for about 20 months and it's very hard to come back. He's another i'd be avoiding until he shows me he's got it.

You're probably right to be wary but he jumps fine, apparently scoped as bad as a horse can pre Arkle and it was no major injury last season. I know for a fact Geragty rates him right alongside Sprinter Sacre at his best and he could make them look absolutely silly if back to his best and staying in King George.

Huntley

Sprinter Sacre is undoubtedly the greatest chaser of the last 40 years. Matching Sprinter Sacre for speed over 8 furlong gallops is all well and good. Put 15 fences in to the mix and nothing would touch him on his best form.

jimjamcos

Huntley wrote: »

Sprinter Sacre is undoubtedly the greatest chaser of the last 40 years. Matching Sprinter Sacre for speed over 8 furlong gallops is all well and good. Put 15 fences in to the mix and nothing would touch him on his best form.

Probably, but Geraghty chooses his words carefully and if he's correct, which he usually is, Simonsig should prove exceptional.

ste2010

A few bob to boost the kitty up before the weekend with Big Casino in the 2pm at Ludlow..8-1 currently, course winning form, nice 10lb claim which takes it a few lbs below its last win

hawkeyethenoo

jimjamcos wrote: »

Probably, but Geraghty chooses his words carefully and if he's correct, which he usually is, Simonsig should prove exceptional.

simonsig doesn't jump well enough he's not in the same league as sprinter sacre, both are machines but sprinter sacre is the full package.

andyman

Speaking of Ludlow, Stars Over The Sea a 22L winner in the first race :eek:

shmeee

andyman wrote: »

Speaking of Ludlow, Stars Over The Sea a 22L winner in the first race :eek:

1/3 out to 8/13 and all. Never seen the drift and would have been on if so.

krustydoyle

andyman wrote: »

Speaking of Ludlow, Stars Over The Sea a 22L winner in the first race :eek:

I had a cheeky €25 ew at 16/1 for the triumph before the off

skippymac6

jimjamcos wrote: »

It's all about Gr1 winners with Willie so once the race was upgraded to that, she was always going there. They wouldn't trust Glens Melody to win it and Annie will do so in reverse.

Yeah and isnt the mares race at Punchestown a grade 1 too? Can just mop both of those year in and year out and not risk her getting hurt.

shy-tall-knight

No sign of Flemenstar this season and no entry for him in the John Durkan. Anyone know anything about his well-being?

klairondavis

Whoever made that mares hurdle a Grade 1 should be shot.

DylanAFC

Was impressed with Uxizandre's jumping yesterday. Anyone have an idea what his target is?

Panrich

Itsabrack wrote: »

Horses coming back after a year off carry a health warning. I would keeping a watching brief.
As for Bobs Worth, as I said earlier, he is 2 years older now, a lot of water under the bridge. I would be looking to last years novices to come to the fore.
We all go with our heart now and again with these previous champions, it's only normal and I am just as guilty as the next fella. We want to see them climbing to the heights they set before, however that carries a wealth warning !

Gringo180 wrote: »

Any reason why you think he wont come back to his best? Hes only ran a handful of times in the last 2 years.

I am always drawn to this piece by Nick Mordin when assessing Henderson chasers. Long Run may have slightly bucked this trend but it's worth bearing in mind all the same.

http://www.nickmordin.com/uk_november_12.htm

In this regard it's worth noting that Long Run's trainer Nicky Henderson has a tremendous record with young, lightly raced chasers in top races. Since 1996 his chasers with eight or fewer previous starts over fences have won nine times out of 91 in Grade 1 chases. Those with more than eight previous chase runs have scored only three times out of 37.

Two of those three wins were in the BMW Chase at the Punchestown Festival at a time when it was basically a bogus Grade 1 (neither winner ever won another Grade 1 or earned an official or Racing Post rating above 157). The third win was in the so-called 'replacement Gold Cup' run at Sandown during the foot and mouth epidemic of 2001. This was another bogus Grade 1 won by Henderson's Marlborough. The short head runner up was a 149 rated 12yo that lost all 23 pattern races he contested. The third had an official rating of only 145 and never won a pattern race in seven tries.

Henderson has been training since 1978 and started out with a top class string. But in his entire career the only horse I can trace that he trained to win a Grade 1 chase after more than nine previous chase starts was Remittance Man who took the Mumm Melling Chase after ten previous chase starts. However Remittance Man only beat three rivals that day, the most fancied of which fell. The runner up was a horse that never won a race worth 5000 or more and Remittance Man earned a Racing Post rating of only 145 for his win.

What the stats suggest is that when one of Henderson's top chasers has racked up more than eight or nine previous chase starts you should start looking for signs of deterioration. Long Run has now had fifteen previous starts over fences. He's lost all four times he's run in Grade 1 chases since he's had more than eight previous chase starts.

In fact the only win Long Run has scored since his Gold Cup success twenty months ago came by half a length in a five runner Grade 2 where Raceform noted "there's a strong suspicion he'd have finished second had stablemate Burton Port been asked for more of an effort earlier."

dicky dunne

i see Faugheen is entered at Ascot this weekend, same race Annie Power won last year, hopefully Melodic Rendezvouw and Lac Fontana stay in the race to make it somewhat competitive

mr.jingle

DylanAFC wrote: »

Was impressed with Uxizandre's jumping yesterday. Anyone have an idea what his target is?

I'd imagine the Ryanair would be the option but I wouldn't put him off going for the Champion Chase. Doubts over Sire de Grugy and Sprinter Sacre make the 20/1 available tempting. If both or even one of them drop out his price will tumble

posturingpat

Uxizandre really was good yesterday,his jumping was beautiful. I reckon he'll be going Ryanair,good ground in March and he might be a bit tapped for toe,he's a nice 1 nonetheless and will be worth following.
Very Wood pulled up yesterday,has anything come to light?

Black_Ninja

posturingpat wrote: »

Uxizandre really was good yesterday,his jumping was beautiful. I reckon he'll be going Ryanair,good ground in March and he might be a bit tapped for toe,he's a nice 1 nonetheless and will be worth following.
Very Wood pulled up yesterday,has anything come to light?

http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=94206&headline=Meade-bemused-by-Very-Wood-s-effort

ste2010

Sire de grugy won't make tingle creek! Took what was left of sizing Europe at 46-1 :-) (a whole 5.48) and another bit at 26c

shmeee

Bellshill @ 25/1 Ante Post for the Champion Bumper is worth a punt with bet365. Good run expected tomorrow in Thurles and that price will be cut. Some firms only go 16/1 for the Champion.

supremenovice

Im sure he will want to seperate Faugheen and Hurricane Fly as much as possible this year.
Does anyone think he will send Faugheen to Kemptons Christmas hurdle along with Champagne Fever in the King george?

skippymac6

shmeee wrote: »

Bellshill @ 25/1 Ante Post for the Champion Bumper is worth a punt with bet365. Good run expected tomorrow in Thurles and that price will be cut. Some firms only go 16/1 for the Champion.

It should be an interesting race. De Bromhead has a few Gigginstown horses now (don't remember him having any before??) and he spoke positively of Attribution in the recent stable tour. Half brother to champion hurdle winner Punjabi too.

krustydoyle

shmeee wrote: »

Bellshill @ 25/1 Ante Post for the Champion Bumper is worth a punt with bet365. Good run expected tomorrow in Thurles and that price will be cut. Some firms only go 16/1 for the Champion.

Just stuck a few quid on ew at 20`s with powers. Thanks

skippymac6

supremenovice wrote: »

Im sure he will want to seperate Faugheen and Hurricane Fly as much as possible this year.
Does anyone think he will send Faugheen to Kemptons Christmas hurdle along with Champagne Fever in the King george?

He'd more than likely have to take on the New One then who ran there last year. Maybe the Fighting fifth at Newcastle? That's a bit early though. It's actually a good point, don't know what he'll do!

Black_Ninja

Adriana Des Mottes, Blood Cotil, Un De Sceaux all entered in a beginners chase in Thurles for next Thursday along with Allez Colombieres,Long Dog, Golantilla and Royal Caviar in a maiden hurdle

irish_major

shmeee wrote: »

Bellshill @ 25/1 Ante Post for the Champion Bumper is worth a punt with bet365. Good run expected tomorrow in Thurles and that price will be cut. Some firms only go 16/1 for the Champion.

Why you would back a horse in november for the champion bumper is beyond me.