NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

JONJO THE MISER

Huge bet on Pats tonight.

JaMarcusHustle

What's the spread tonight?

matthew8

Early ATS for next week: Cardinals +3.5, Chiefs -10.5, Ravens -13.5, Colts -6.5, Bengals -1.5, Patriots -7.5, Buccaneers +5, Redskins +6.5, Titans +1, Broncos -3.5, Seahawks -9.5, Cowboys +3.5. Patriots and Titans potential bets.

Running Balance

Ryan to throw under 260 tonight against the packers.. Its gonna be freezing there!!

matthew8

+6.2 59 staked 56-43 ATS. Those big handicaps would drive you insane, both Packers and Broncos were 2 scores ahead of the cap and gave up cheap scores. 1 unit Titans win 2.09, 1 unit Patriots -7.5 1.98.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

+6.2 59 staked 56-43 ATS. Those big handicaps would drive you insane, both Packers and Broncos were 2 scores ahead of the cap and gave up cheap scores. 1 unit Titans win 2.09, 1 unit Patriots -7.5 1.98.

Ah those big handicaps are a nightmare, teams just take their foot off the gas late and try and run the clock down while the other side keep taking chances.

Massive screw up from me there last week. Saw the odds for MVP were:
Rodgers 10/11
Manning 7/2
Watt 4/1

Was convinced that Rodgers was going to get it and planned on putting a fair amount on it. Forgot about it and was trying to back it on Sunday but the market was suspended. Now the odds are:
Rodgers 1/5
Brady 8/1
Watt 13/1

The only way Rodgers doesn't win it is if the Packers lose the last regular seson game to Detroit to slip to the 5 seed and he plays awful. Even then most of the votes may be cast (I'm not sure when the vote is taken to be honest). Brady and the patriots will win out and he'll finish 2nd or 3rd with Watt in the other position that Brady doesn't fill.

Hulk Hands

Had a great run with the vastly overpriced bet on Luck but unfortunately Rodgers is going to prove too good. The odds are still skewed a bit, it's about 1/7 Rodgers, 8/1 Watt and 66's Luck. Nobody else has a hope. I'd assume they'll go MVP Rodgers, DPOY Watt and OPOY Luck

ionadnapokot

After the Steelers demolition of the Bengals last wk, im going to put a euro on the Bengals this wk....to win the Super Bowl! Well not quite. Every yr, around this time, a group of us try and pick a long shot(+40s), and see who's selection goes the farthest.
I reckon the Bengals can squeak into the PO if they win 1 from: @Browns, vBroncos, @Steelers

I would welcome any comments you have for a bit of craic ! Or any alternative suggestions?

Billy86

ionadnapokot wrote: »

After the Steelers demolition of the Bengals last wk, im going to put a euro on the Bengals this wk....to win the Super Bowl! Well not quite. Every yr, around this time, a group of us try and pick a long shot(+40s), and see who's selection goes the farthest.
I reckon the Bengals can squeak into the PO if they win 1 from: @Browns, vBroncos, @Steelers

I would welcome any comments you have for a bit of craic ! Or any alternative suggestions?

Falcons, 66/1 on PP, if they win the division (currently top) they get a home playoff game and also have a bit of momentum.

As for Luck, he probably is the front runner for OPOTY but I think Murray deserves it more - the standout in his position this year by a distance, and Luck is on pace for 23 turnovers which is just way, way, way too much (he is currently on 19).

Hulk Hands

Billy86 wrote: »

Falcons, 66/1 on PP, if they win the division (currently top) they get a home playoff game and also have a bit of momentum.

As for Luck, he probably is the front runner for OPOTY but I think Murray deserves it more - the standout in his position this year by a distance, and Luck is on pace for 23 turnovers which is just way, way, way too much (he is currently on 19).

Yeah hard to argue against Murray. Very interesting to see if he gets to 2k. Just think Luck has been amazing, will go close to breaking the passing record, will break the record for yards from scrimmage and on course for 48 total TD's. Does have a fair few turnovers but not sure you can put some of the fumbles on him, especially playing behind that OL. He's lucky he hasnt been decapitated this year

skippymac6

Billy86 wrote: »

Falcons, 66/1 on PP, if they win the division (currently top) they get a home playoff game and also have a bit of momentum.

As for Luck, he probably is the front runner for OPOTY but I think Murray deserves it more - the standout in his position this year by a distance, and Luck is on pace for 23 turnovers which is just way, way, way too much (he is currently on 19).

Best SB bet at the minute has to be the Ravens at 33/1. They have the Jags at home this week, followed by the Texans in Houston. The Texans play Indy this week in Indy so their playoff hopes will be extinguished by next week. They finish the regular season at home to the Browns who will be playing for nothing at that stage. I'd be very surprised if they don't win out.

That should give them the division as the Bengals have to go to Pittsburgh and host the Broncos and the Steelers have the Bengals obv, go to Atlanta and have the Chiefs at home too. The Ravens offensive line is either the best or second best in the league when healthy (along with Dallas of course), has a great run game and a Superbowl winning QB. Added to that they beat Denver and New England away from home in that SB run two years ago and they won't fear going in there at all. They will have to play 3 playoff games to reach the SB but I think they're worth a squeak at those odds.

*sorry read wrong, didn't notice you needed a 40/1 or bigger shot! Maybe you could make an exception

Billy86

Ah yeah, I was just looking at 40/1+ bets as ionadnapokot was looking for.

I reckon the Texans could easily beat the Ravens, though. And if the Colts play like they have for 3 of the last 4 weeks, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Texans beat them too (though far less likely of course).

ionadnapokot

skippymac6 wrote: »

Best SB bet at the minute has to be the Ravens at 33/1. They have the Jags at home this week, followed by the Texans in Houston. The Texans play Indy this week in Indy so their playoff hopes will be extinguished by next week. They finish the regular season at home to the Browns who will be playing for nothing at that stage. I'd be very surprised if they don't win out.

That should give them the division as the Bengals have to go to Pittsburgh and host the Broncos and the Steelers have the Bengals obv, go to Atlanta and have the Chiefs at home too. The Ravens offensive line is either the best or second best in the league when healthy (along with Dallas of course), has a great run game and a Superbowl winning QB. Added to that they beat Denver and New England away from home in that SB run two years ago and they won't fear going in there at all. They will have to play 3 playoff games to reach the SB but I think they're worth a squeak at those odds.

*sorry read wrong, didn't notice you needed a 40/1 or bigger shot! Maybe you could make an exception

No! Rules are rules. wont be let away with that one!
Good shout though. But what if Texans beat the Colts!!! Texans are 220's. J.J Watt...mmmm

skippymac6

ionadnapokot wrote: »

No! Rules are rules. wont be let away with that one!
Good shout though. But what if Texans beat the Colts!!! Texans are 220's. J.J Watt...mmmm

Haha fair enough! Yes JJ is awesome but Ryan Fitzpatrick hoisting the Lombardi trophy aloft come Feb? Stranger things and all that but that would be one for the ages!

matthew8

1 unit Cardinals win 2.7. Love that bet, think a win is likely.

ionadnapokot

skippymac6 wrote: »

Haha fair enough! Yes JJ is awesome but Ryan Fitzpatrick hoisting the Lombardi trophy aloft come Feb? Stranger things and all that but that would be one for the ages!

fyi: we have now nailed our colours to the mast. (>40/1 Super Bowl odds)
Bengals
Texans (I was beaten 2 the Bengals..& I have a feelin about Houston. Watt?)
Saints
Chargers

skippymac6

Thursday night football:
Rams -5
Under 40.5 points

Onecoolcookie

Wasn't expecting to see that spread for tonight's game, surely there has to be some value in the Cardinals?

Although this stat tempers my enthusiasm a bit "Cardinals have lost 11 consecutive Thursday games dating back to 1950, the longest streak in NFL history".

eagle eye

Rams are on the upswing at the minute and are still not totally out of contention for a playoff spot although its highly unlikely. I just don't like the Cards with their QB problems and expect an easy win for the Rams.

Going with Rams -9.5 @ 33/20

Billy86

Took a small bet on Rams -2.5 and over 40.5 points at 7/4. Reckon both are a bit of a coin toss, so just putting the bet on to make the match more interesting.

matthew8

You're getting 3.18 on the Cardinals now, I thought the 2.7 was value. They've shown before that a lack of a quarterback hasn't made much difference. Only 3 losses this year and 2 of them were away to Denver and Seattle, 2 of the toughest games in football. The only game they've had a decent chance in that they've lost was against Atlanta. The Rams have been in great form since going to San Fran and the Cardinals are the only side who managed to beat them in that stretch without an extremely dubious refereeing call. There's also the Bruce Arians factor, maybe the best coach in the league right now.

Guffy

Can't believe i stayed up for that. One of lads had a fiver on no td's at 100/1... pr1ck

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

Thursday night football:
Rams -5
Under 40.5 points

Fancied the unders strongly but the Rams were poor. Really don't like when coaches don't go for it on 4th and very short which Fisher did time and again. Really baffling especially when if you're really honest, they were out of playoff contention anyway, why not just go for it. Cardinals will struggle though if Stanton isn't able to get back for the playoffs.

matthew8

ATS picks: Steelers -1.5, Bears +3.

matthew8

1 unit Bengals win 2.2.

Billy86

Just some small ones for the early games: Manziel over 212.5 passing yards, Jake Locker over 216.5 passing yards, Derek Anderson over 217.5 passing yards, Fitzpatrick over 226.5 passing yards.

Four €5 trebles on each combo of them (€30.80 return each) and a €5 accumulator on all four (€56.50 return) - €180 return if they all come off.

Also €20 on Eagles -3.5 in the late game at 21/20, and €10 on Steelers -3 at evens as soon as I heard Julio Jones is not playing. I put that last one on the moment it came up on my phone though before the line could change and am having buyer's remorse... told myself I wouldn't put another penny on the Steelers again all season since they've been so insanely unpredictable.

matthew8

ATS: Lions -8.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

1 unit Bengals win 2.2.

Good shout. Poor auld Johnny had a tough day at the office

matthew8

+9.08, 63 staked. 65-47 ATS. Early ATS: Jaguars -3, 49ers -2.5, Vikings +7, Packers -10.5, Chiefs +3.5, Rams -5, Patriots -10.5, Raiders +5.5, Cardinals +7.5 and Bengals +3. Chiefs and Cardinals the ones tempting me right now. Will very likely take Chiefs but it will take some guts to back Lindley vs. the Seahawks. I just think Arians/Bowles are so good though they can make it work.

Hulk Hands

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Backed the 49ers under 10.5 wins at 10/11. This line has moved in the US and Asia in favour of the unders but the UK bookies haven't reacted yet. Backed them at 5/2 not to make the playoffs also, should be about 4/7 yes 7/4 no

YAYY! As long as the Rams don't win their last two and the under 7.5 gets up with them also, i'll be a happy camper.