Can the book be beaten ...long term?

kiers47

del roy wrote: »

Razor, I need a good few more of them and at that price as well but hopefully a start of a claw back.

Just curious on the staking plan here del?

Do you use some sort of flat point scheme and never deviate?
I havent really followed the progress myself. I try to use a kind of modified Kelly Criterion strategy myself.
Just wondering if you modify your bets depending on the depth of your betting bank. Or if it is always a constant? Interested to hear.

del roy

kiers47 wrote: »

Just curious on the staking plan here del?

Do you use some sort of flat point scheme and never deviate?
I havent really followed the progress myself. I try to use a kind of modified Kelly Criterion strategy myself.
Just wondering if you modify your bets depending on the depth of your betting bank. Or if it is always a constant? Interested to hear.

No, started with 2k
€20 per point
until all gone or maybe hit 4k and take 2k back
but no I won't reduce my bets even if down to last two hundred.

del roy

3.05 applause 12/1 €40 e/w 1st (at last)


Bank
129 bets
16 winners

-€940

del roy

Ante post bet

2018 Grand National 2018

Seeyouatmidnight €40 e/w 25/1

Widdensushi

Nice one, I didn't follow but tried 1 point ew on the grand national tip, hopefully he's back on track.

del roy

Widdensushi wrote: »

Nice one, I didn't follow but tried 1 point ew on the grand national tip, hopefully he's back on track.

It is timeform top rated, I think, will check later.

del roy

del roy wrote: »

It is timeform top rated, I think, will check later.

Sorry lads, they have three co top rated, well in this review anyway.

Leading Contender


Has a good chance








SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT

Trainer: Sandy Thomson
Weight: 10-11
Jockey:
Form: 1173/1P2-3
Age: 10
Won three of his first five starts over fences in 2015/16, before running a cracker to finish third in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr on his final start that season. Limited to just three starts last term but ran ok on comeback over inadequate trip at Newbury. Stands out at the weights if returning anywhere near his best, though, and has been well backed in his bid to become the second consecutive Scottish-trained winner of the race.





https://www.timeform.com/grand-national/runners


Fook them stars are big.

del roy

9.15 spirit of edinburgh €40 e/w 8/1

del roy

del roy wrote: »

9.15 spirit of edinburgh €40 e/w 8/1

lost

Bank
130 bets
16 winners

-€1020

handsfree2

del roy wrote: »

lost

Bank
130 bets
16 winners

-€1020

I hope it turns around for you. It's a great thread, and has been for the last couple of years.

del roy

3.35 the name evades me 10/1 €40 e/w

realdanbreen

del roy wrote: »

3.35 the name evades me 10/1 €40 e/w

Good to see you're still going strong Del. I was on a bit of a suspension there for a while- Excessive use of the whip !

del roy

realdanbreen wrote: »

Good to see you're still going strong Del. I was on a bit of a suspension there for a while- Excessive use of the whip !

YES Dan, still trying to solve the puzzle of how to have an easy life and still have pockets full of money, no where near solving it though even with the help of the kid.

Anyway I will keep trying.

del roy

del roy wrote: »

Ante post bet

2018 Grand National 2018

Seeyouatmidnight €40 e/w 25/1

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/cheveley-park-buy-national-hope/145968

del roy

Flying Scot Seeyouatmidnight all set for Grand National after ownership change


Scotland's big hope for back-to-back Randox Health Grand National victories, Seeyouatmidnight, goes into Saturday's contest in "great shape" and will run in the colours of Cheveley Park Stud's David and Patricia Thompson after a last-minute sale just days before the Aintree marathon.

The Sandy Thomson-trained ten-year-old is bidding to follow in the footsteps of last year's winner One For Arthur, the first Scottish-trained winner of the Grand National since Rubstic in 1979.

And Seeyouatmidnight will also be attempting to replicate the feat of Party Politics, who won the 1992 Grand National carrying the Thompsons' silks having been purchased just days beforehand.

Previously owned by Thomson's wife Quona, Seeyouatmidnight is a general 16-1 shot for the Grand National, with the market headed by Total Recall at 11-1. He comes into Saturday's race having finished third over an inadequate two and a half miles at Newbury late last month, a first start this campaign after injury and bad weather prevented earlier appearances.

"It's very easy to see why he's at the forefront of the market," said Thomson on Monday.

"He's got a nice racing weight, and if he'd run this season in some of the nice races we would have hoped he wouldn't be rated 149 any more. His third in the Scottish National [in 2016] shows he stays. Hopefully he'll take to the fences and jump as well.

"I've no concern about the ground. He beat Bristol De Mai on good ground [at Carlisle in October 2016] and he's won a bit on soft ground, so I'm not concerned about that.

"Obviously it's not been smooth but I'm very happy with where he is. He's going to the race in great shape. You don't really get confident with the National, but it's not difficult to see why he's fancied."

He added: "One of the things that really pleased me at Newbury was that that is a big track and he jumped it really well, even though he hadn't jumped a fence even here since his run in the Betfair Chase in 2016. That really pleased me."

Thomson and big-race jockey Brian Hughes together have decided not to give Seeyouatmidnight a go over a replica National fence, meaning he will encounter the unique obstacles for the first time on Saturday.

Thomson explained: "I think he's intelligent enough. We haven't schooled him, so hopefully he'll run down to the first fence and think, 'Oh that's a bit different', and take care of it."

Seeyouatmidnight was popular with punters on Monday and was cut to 16-1 (from 20) by several firms, with Ladbrokes reporting that he and Tiger Roll – the firm's 8-1 favourite – were their worst results.

The offer to buy Seeyouatmidnight came via bloodstock agent Anthony Bromley following the ten-year-old's comeback run.

"Anthony Bromley asked me at Newbury if we would be interested and I said, 'Well let's see how he gets on', and he came back afterwards and made an offer. We had the whole trip home to discuss it and, listen, we run a business," Thomson added.

del roy

del roy wrote: »

Ante post bet

2018 Grand National 2018

Seeyouatmidnight €40 e/w 25/1

1.45 project bluebook €20 e/w 28/1
4.05 ultra gold €20 e/w 10/1

Bank
131 bets
16 winners

-€1100

Nulty

del roy wrote: »

del roy wrote: »

Ante post bet

2018 Grand National 2018

Seeyouatmidnight  €40 e/w  25/1

1.45 project bluebook  €20 e/w 28/1
4.05 ultra gold  €20 e/w  10/1

Bank
131 bets
16 winners

-€1100

Ultragold is available at 16s everywhere

del roy

Nulty wrote: »

Ultragold is available at 16s everywhere

yes Nulty you were right it should have read 14/1, don't know why I typed 10/1

a decent priced winner at last, only a score bet but every little helps.


1.45 project bluebook €20 e/w 28/1 6th
4.05 ultra gold €20 e/w 14/1....1st ...returns €350

Bank
133 bets
17 winners

-€790

SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT is getting hammered in the betting. 12/1 with some books may even start FAV yet.

del roy

3.05 boycie 8/1 €40 e/w
4.55 prove the point 18/1 €20 e/w
5.15 seeyouatmidnight 25/1 €40 e/w

del roy

Bank
136 bets
17 winners

-€990

3.20 rothman €20 e/w 14/1

del roy

del roy wrote: »

Bank
136 bets
17 winners

-€990

3.20 rothman €20 e/w 14/1

1st 12/1



137 bets
18 winners

-€640

del roy

4.20 mobsta €100 win 7/4 max bet

6.05 sebastiano ricci €40 e/w 13/2

del roy

del roy wrote: »

4.20 mobsta €100 win 7/4 max bet

6.05 sebastiano ricci €40 e/w 13/2

Looks like Jerry has caught two live ones today

7/4 into 11/10

13/2 into 4/1 into 11/4

del roy

del roy wrote: »

4.20 mobsta €100 win 7/4 max bet 1st

6.05 sebastiano ricci €40 e/w 13/2

Jerry may just be turning the corner.

138 bets
19 winners

-€475

del roy

Sebastian never put in race, to go with huge drift on betfair. :mad:


139 bets
19 winners

-€555

del roy

Fairyhouse
5.15 young paddymc €40 e/w 10/1

razorhead

del roy wrote: »

Fairyhouse
5.15 young paddymc €40 e/w 10/1

The wrong Gibney horse, was well punted as well

del roy

razorhead wrote: »

The wrong Gibney horse, was well punted as well

Yes Razor, Jerry has a near 100% record for going for the wrong one when the trainer has two in the the race. unreal record.

1.50 mont kiara 16/1 €20 e/w
4.25 linenhall 14/1 €20 e/w


140 bets
19 winners

-€635

del roy

2.25 king lud €20 e/w 66/1 powers 4 places.


142 bets
19 winners

-€715

BumperD

66/1 :eek: if that comes in...