Can the book be beaten ...long term?

Harry Palmr

20 on a 80/1 shot and 20 on a 8/1 shot doesn't compute for me. Still, different strokes....

In profit, well done to Jerry.

del roy

Harry Palmr wrote: »

20 on a 80/1 shot and 20 on a 8/1 shot doesn't compute for me. Still, different strokes....

In profit, well done to Jerry.

Harry
looking at the way he bets he must have a minimum of 1pt e/w if he thinks has a chance of popping up as a winner. He has had days where he has had
a 1pt e/w bet on a 10/1 and a 2pt e/w bet on another 10/1 so he obviously fancies the 2pt ew selection more, I think.

btw he has a group of about 45 in the UK paying him a small monthly sum so that helps with the punting money.

hawaii501

Had anyone the time to do the win ROI?

Still find this an intriguing thread(in a good way)

bookman2

del roy wrote: »

Harry
looking at the way he bets he must have a minimum of 1pt e/w if he thinks has a chance of popping up as a winner. He has had days where he has had
a 1pt e/w bet on a 10/1 and a 2pt e/w bet on another 10/1 so he obviously fancies the 2pt ew selection more, I think.

btw he has a group of about 45 in the UK paying him a small monthly sum so that helps with the punting money.

Does he still hav3 people paying for his selections😳?

del roy

bookman2 wrote: »

Does he still hav3 people paying for his selections😳?

Yes there is one born everyday and Jerry found 45 of them. only joking.

12.10 dandy dan €20 win 6/1
1.30 bastein €40 win 4/1
1.35 chilly miss €20 e/w 13/2
2.05 wizards bridge €40 e/w 10/1

stretchaq

del roy wrote: »

Yes there is one born everyday and Jerry found 45 of them. only joking.

12.10 dandy dan €20 win 6/1
1.30 bastein €40 win 4/1
1.35 chilly miss €20 e/w 13/2
2.05 wizards bridge €40 e/w 10/1

I really like all 4 of these selections can see the logic behind all of them lucky 15 for me

del roy

12.10 dandy dan €20 win 6/1 (unplaced 2/1 2nd fav)


Obviously more than 40 or 50 backed this today at some stage they are just no value.

del roy

Bank
66 bets
10 winners

-€150

only the one bet today

3.40 montys award €40 e/w 9/1

del roy

2.55 boomerang betty €20 e/w 25/1

del roy

Bank
67 bets
10 winners

-€230

del roy

1.05 paddling 10/3 €100 win max bet

del roy

del roy wrote: »

1.05 paddling 10/3 €100 win max bet

Max bet goes in at 4/1, nice won Jerry.


Bank
68 bets
11 winners

+€170

del roy

Bank
69 bets
11 winners

+€130

no bets today

del roy

1.45 runaiocht €40 e/w 7/1
1.55 theligny €20 e/w 12/1 boyles
2.25 vieux lille €20 e/w 12/1
2.55 ourmullion €20 e/w 8/1

del roy

Bank
73 bets
11 winners

-€10

3.25 eager to know €100 win 5/2 max bet

doniec79

Just came across this thread...super stuff, great read! Thanks for all the effort

del roy

Bank
74 bets
11 winners

-€110

no bets today

del roy

7.10 sugar beach €40 e/w 14/1

Sugar beach in the last 8 months and 7 races has been dropped 19LB.
Her dam AKTIA won a 1m4f class 4 Salisbury handicap.
Her sire was Canford Cliffs, a mile winner 5 times at G1 level.
The stable have had a terrible 2017 with only 13 winners for the whole year which leaves them with some very well handicapped horses. The stable have had 2 runners the last two days, winner and third so things maybe picking up for them.
Runs tonight in the 7.10 1M1F class 6 apprentice handicap, one of only three 4yr old's in the field, just a small bit of improvement should see him in the shake up, 14/1 2pts e/w

Pinesky

PP paying 1/5 th the odds 4 places . Might help

del roy

del roy wrote: »

7.10 sugar beach €40 e/w 14/1

Sugar beach in the last 8 months and 7 races has been dropped 19LB.
Her dam AKTIA won a 1m4f class 4 Salisbury handicap.
Her sire was Canford Cliffs, a mile winner 5 times at G1 level.
The stable have had a terrible 2017 with only 13 winners for the whole year which leaves them with some very well handicapped horses. The stable have had 2 runners the last two days, winner and third so things maybe picking up for them.
Runs tonight in the 7.10 1M1F class 6 apprentice handicap, one of only three 4yr old's in the field, just a small bit of improvement should see him in the shake up, 14/1 2pts e/w

well that didn't go to plan at all. :mad:

Just had a word with Jerry and he has not lost faith in Sugar beach,
reasons,
pressed leader and pulled to hard last night, last two races sugar was buried in field, only to be produced or tried to be produced in the last furlong. Jerry thinks beverley or Carlise may suit him better.
However he died very quickly for me to be interested in him at some point soon, from nearly joint leader to last in the space of a furlong and a half, does not bode well with me.

we shall see.

Bank
75 bets
11 winners

-€190

del roy

Welsh National

Milansbar €60 e/w 16/1

del roy

7.30 one in all in €20 e/w 12/1

8.15 rely on me €20 e/w 16/1

8.30 any time €20 e/w 20/1


Bank
75 bets
11 winners

-€190

bit of a move on ONE IN ALL IN, best price now 6/1

del roy

1.00 another venture €100 win 9/4 max bet

paddy no 11

del roy wrote: »

1.00 another venture €100 win 9/4 max bet

G'wan the kid

del roy

Bank
80 bets
12 winners

-€205

2.35 frank n fair €20 e/w 10/1

A minimum of €1,600 in bets and down €205, Jerry says he will be stepping up the betting from next week as November and December are not normally big winning months for him,
Ya Fecker Ya Jer, you could of pointed that out to me on the 1st November.
Anyway I will stick with it, at the moment its not costing me anything except time, -€205 after 80 bets is I suppose nearly holding my own however I can see a couple of accounts being closed if he has 4 or 5 well backed winners in a short period of time. (wishful thinking).

anyone any views on how this is going so far, good or bad.

BumperD

Love following it Del. Not backing.

I noticed a few recent wins were short priced max bets put up late with other ones on same day put up well before and not faring so well. If there are say 1000 more followers from here on top of the 45 paying people blindly following and missing those late bets, the bookies are making a lot from this which hopefully turns around.

redzerdrog

BumperD wrote: »

Love following it Del. Not backing.

I noticed a few recent wins were short priced max bets put up late with other ones on same day put up well before and not faring so well. If there are say 1000 more followers from here on top of the 45 paying people blindly following and missing those late bets, the bookies are making a lot from this which hopefully turns around.

I would be very surprised if there more that 20 people from here backing every bet.

I have been following with interest aswell but have only backed 2 or 3 of his selections

del roy

Bank
81 bets
12 winners

-€185

2.35 frank n fair €20 e/w 10/1 3rd

Yeah Bumper, I try get them up here asap as the prices do not last long on some of them but as Redzer says I doubt there are more than a handful following, it's now only to prove whether Jerry can do it or not.

One thing I will say if he ever hits a purple patch, with the prices he takes and the dough he puts down, it won't be long adding up.

BumperD

Over 200k views. I wouldn’t be too surprised at all. Look at same of the price collapses that occurred in the last 2-3 weeks.

BumperD

I’ve no doubt he will hit a big priced winner, that will turns things rapidly:)