Can the book be beaten ...long term?

BumperD

It was a rare foray across the pond for a maiden hurdle for the kid :pac:

BumperD

Double Boooooom! The wind op worked a treat for Boite. Well done Del & the Kid - great to see a turnaround and on a saturday too.

Mostly Harmless

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

You're only down something like 20 points at average stake? It's not *that much* at sort of prices that are being bet - just need the old variance to improve.

Told ya

del roy

del roy wrote: »

Navan 1.00 Not many left €40 e/w 9/1
1st 3/1 returns €430

2.15 Boite €100 win 5/2 max bet
1st 7/4 returns €250

Bank
91 bets
14 winners

+€5

we were due a bit of luck, a lot of them have been shortening and not running too well.

del roy

1.20 jetez €40 win 6/4

1.40 bramble brook €40 win 11/4

bookman2

Well done with yesterday’s winners. His info seems to be spot on. Any idea what the profit would be just from his info ?

razorhead

bookman2 wrote: »

Well done with yesterday’s winners. His info seems to be spot on. Any idea what the profit would be just from his info ?

See Post 1835....

bookman2

That’s all his selections! I was just wondering what would the profit be just from the kids infos selections . I seem to remember he had a few from the Richards stable last year.

del roy

bookman2 wrote: »

Well done with yesterday’s winners. His info seems to be spot on. Any idea what the profit would be just from his info ?

No idea, he does not explain the bets to me but does however give write ups about each bet to his lads but only gives me the name of horse and bet stake.

I do think his bets will be monitored by the bookmakers and anyone who got 9/1 about satursdays winner will be getting a "dear john" letter restricting them to lotto only or €1 max stakes sooner rather than later.

That's the price you pay following a tipster who beats the sp most of the time whether the tip wins or loses but how they are still getting on with the bookmakers is puzzling me big time.

del roy

Bank
93 bets
14 winners

-€75

2.25 morney wing €100 7/2 win max bet 2nd

del roy

Bank
94 bets
14 winners

-€175

2.55 ben arthur €40 e/w 11/2

just like to explain, the points system again, 1 pt is €20 to me, the kids staking plan is

1pt win
1pt e/w
2 points win
2 points e/w
3 points win
5 points win (max bet)

His one ante post bet so far for Cheltenham is

the stayers hurdle: supasundae €40 e/w 12/1, he did it a few weeks ago, took 7/1 this morning so for the benefit of the thread....

Ante post bets for Cheltenham
Stayers hurdle...supasundae €40 e/w 7/1

del roy

Bank
95 bets
14 winners

-€160

del roy

6.45 deliberator €40 win 5/1

he must have seen/read something about this horse, thats the 3rd time we have backed this.

del roy

Bank
96 bets
14 winners

-€200

del roy

Saturday,
Doncaster,

3.15 coologue €40 e/w 20/1

del roy

Saturday,

3.15 coologue €40 e/w 20/1
3.00 malcahys hill 11/2 €40 e/w.....9/2
4.10 le patriote €40 win 4/1.......5/2
4.20 its o kay €40 win 3/1.....6/4

all shortening so lets hope we get a winner or two.

del roy

3.40 randy pike €40 e/w 11/1

del roy

Bank
101 bets
14 winners

-€520

Don't know where he got these on friday evening but big money for all three favs and they were stuffed, must be gutting to have big stuff on them, get great prices and then watch them run like that, tough from my side as well.

3.15 coologue €40 e/w 20/1
3.00 malcahys hill 11/2 €40 e/w.....9/2.....11/4
4.10 le patriote €40 win 4/1.......5/2....13/8
4.20 its o kay €40 win 3/1.....6/4.....1/1

all three went out as if they were shot.

Today

3.25 sandhurst lad €20 e/w 9/1

del roy

3.25 sandhurst lad €20 e/w 9/1 2nd


Bank
102 bets
14 winners

-€500

Friday, Chepstow.

3.20 quiz master €40 e/w 8/1>>>>>>7/1
1.40 surtee de burlais €20 e/w 8/1
8.00 sheisdiesel €40 e/w 16/1>>>>>>>11/1

sorry the way the bets are coming, a bit like buses however that's the way I am getting them.

del roy

Bank
105 bets
14 winners

-€580

4.10 magic of light €40 e/w 25/1

into 16s now


Ante post bets for Cheltenham
Stayers hurdle...supasundae €40 e/w 7/1
Gold cup...Minella rocco €40 e/w 20/1
Kim Muir chase...Sugar baron €40 e/w 16/1
Grand annual chase...Theinval €40 e/w 14/1

Hi
I will be having only 4 bets for Cheltenham this year, as usual there will be no shorties as I do not see value in them at such a big meeting where the whole field are "trying for their lives"
I see Supaesunday went in yesterday, he was a whooping 25/1 on friday night, really kicking myself I didn't back him e/w at that price.
Onto today, Jessie thinks 4.25 Magic of light will run well.

del roy

Bank
106 bets
14 winners

-€660

Saturday, newbury
the betfair hurdle.

irish roe €60 win 12/1

danganabu

del roy wrote: »

Bank
106 bets
14 winners

-€660

Saturday, newbury
the betfair hurdle.

irish roe €60 win 12/1

Being backing this one for a couple of weeks at 20s and down myself, on my calculations he has upwards of a stone in hand of his official mark.

paddybarry

danganabu wrote: »

Being backing this one for a couple of weeks at 20s and down myself, on my calculations he has upwards of a stone in hand of his official mark.

She

danganabu

del roy wrote: »

Bank
106 bets
14 winners

-€660

Saturday, newbury
the betfair hurdle.

irish roe €60 win 12/1

Steady money for this now, I backed it last Saturday @20/1, now as low as 8/1, think it will go off as short as 3 or 4/1.

del roy

5.55 Bloodsweatandtears €40 e/w 9/1
8.00 intransigent €20 e/w 16/1

Fanny Wank

danganabu wrote: »

think it will go off as short as 3 or 4/1.

Jesus Christ........

EDIT: ah f*ck it. If Irish Roe starts 4/1 or lower I'll donate €100 to the injured jockeys fund

del roy

Bank
108 bets
14 winners

-€780

danganabu

Fanny **** wrote: »

Jesus Christ........

Oh look its the stalker with the really clever and mature username!

The horse is officially 11lbs well in and ran Maria's Benefit to 3/4L on her last outing, hasnt finished outside the first two in her last 6 races and has won in a big field. Irish Roe gets in off a mark of 134, Maria Benefit is rate 148.The Saturday casual punters will steam into her. She has already gone from 20s to 8s in less than a week, and in the last two runnings of the race the favourite has gone off at 3/1, what price do you predict she will start??

Fanny Wank

danganabu wrote: »

Oh look its the stalker with the really clever and mature username!

[edit]

Flaming
Posts containing personal attacks on another user will be edited/deleted. Attack the post, not the poster. Minor infringements will warrant a warning followed by a ban. Serious infringements and/or intentional flaming will receive an automatic ban.

Have you redone your "calculations" based on now knowing she's a mare?

danganabu

Fanny **** wrote: »

[edit]
Have you redone your "calculations" based on now knowing she's a mare?

My bad, have a bad habit of referring to all horses in the male form, obviously I was aware she was a mare seeing as my reasoning for backing the horse is partly based on her last run in a mares only hurlde.

Why would I need to re-assess any calculations based on the horse been a mare? Have the conditions of the race suddenly changed, last time I checked there was no mares allowance in the Betfair.

Have you anything constructive to offer on my analysis or perhaps you could provide us with your idea of the winner and you insightful analysis of the race.