Can the book be beaten ...long term?

del roy

sorry lads
it was that faller,

del roy

Bank
117 bets
15 winners

-€1030

-51pts

2.30 Champion chase €20 e/w 14/1 2nd 16/1

del roy

4.40 the lion dancer €40 e/w 8/1 3rd

Bank
118 bets
15 winners

-€1000

-50pts

del roy

Sunday
4.55 urban spirit €40 e/w 7/1

Theonly way

Katie Gale

Look the market does not have this ones true chance .
If you are going to win long term opportunities like this dont arrive every day.

The reason its price is wrong .

Course record = 5-7-15 

Out of form pair Samtu and Brigadoon have claims but have to bounce back to form and that is what it is .

Not unless it looks bad in the paddock Lump on.

del roy

Bank
119 bets
15 winners

-€1080

-54pts

Theonly way

06-Mar-18
13:25:26 15:20 Southwell
Katie Gale - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:118321661386 | Matched: 06-Mar-18 13:25:26 Back

famagusta

Theonly way wrote:

06-Mar-18 13:25:26 15:20 Southwell Katie Gale - Win Betfair Bet ID 1:118321661386 | Matched: 06-Mar-18 13:25:26 Back

Why are you posting in this thread?

del roy

Lads got this off Jerry earlier on he quoted 12/1 but only now seen it on my phone , however its now 16s with powers, I have backed it at 16s so to keep the thread straight I will claim the 16/1, just for my tally.

4.30 van huysen €40 e/w 16/1

del roy

another one
7.40 intransigent €40 e/w 7/1

razorhead

del roy wrote: »

another one
7.40 intransigent €40 e/w 7/1

He gave that out the last time he ran Del

del roy

4.30 van huysen €40 e/w 16/1 4th


I don't like moaning but the jock gave that a terrible ride imv.

GillLebowski

del roy wrote: »

4.30 van huysen €40 e/w 16/1 4th


I don't like moaning but the jock gave that a terrible ride imv.

If he moved at all while getting trapped he’d have at the very least placed... Took him an age to get out of the hole he was stuck in...

del roy

Good morning
I am aware we are down 71pts since October and my luck is right out at the moment, I have decided to leave the racing until Cheltenham.

Jerry


Bank
121 bets
15 winners

-€1240


This is gonna be some claw back, I am looking forward to it. However one thing I hope he does not do is change the type of bets or stakes he has been using since day one.

On a different subject altogether, did anyone see what TOM SCUDAMORE says about his ride in the Imperial cup,

Tom very bullish about FNL

2.25 Sandown – Friday Night Light

Friday Night Light has the visor on for the first time which I think will help him. He’s tailormade for this race. I’m very confident that he can win this.

The two miles will suit, as will the stiff uphill finish. He’s improved with every run and yes he’s got to improve again. He’s got a 3lb pull with Le Patriote from last time.

That was a very good run and I can see conditions at Sandown suiting my horse even better than they did at Ascot. We’ve now got to go and do it.

I won the Imperial Cup on Baltimore Rock in 2014 which is a while ago now so I’d like to do it again.

-62pts

BumperD

He's giving up racing for 72 hours ?!!!

del roy

Bank
121 bets
15 winners

-€1240

3.30 Champion hurdle

Ch'tibello €20 e/w 66/1

Hector Bellend

It shouldn't be.

The bookies tip the odds in their favour. If they cant do it properly then they should retire.

del roy

Hector
if you are suggesting the book should not be beaten because the bookmakers make the odds, then your wrong, they make mistakes all the time, thats why they restrict peoples accounts because the people they restrict can see where they are making the mistakes.

Now if you are saying, you cannot beat the way the bookmakers run their business, example barring/restricting people who not only DON'T WIN BUT JUST SEE THE BOOKMAKERS REPEATING THEIR MISTAKES OVER AND OVER AGAIN, THEN TAKING THOSE ODDS, well that's a different matter altogether.

If it were a level playing field there are plenty of punters out there that would beat the book but any serious punter knows....it is not a level playing field. Bookmakers close the accounts of people who have half a chance with them.

Hector Bellend

del roy wrote: »

Hector
if you are suggesting the book should not be beaten because the bookmakers make the odds, then your wrong, they make mistakes all the time, thats why they restrict peoples accounts because the people they restrict can see where they are making the mistakes.

Now if you are saying, you cannot beat the way the bookmakers run their business, example barring/restricting people who not only DON'T WIN BUT JUST SEE THE BOOKMAKERS REPEATING THEIR MISTAKES OVER AND OVER AGAIN, THEN TAKING THOSE ODDS, well that's a different matter altogether.

If it were a level playing field there are plenty of punters out there that would beat the book but any serious punter knows....it is not a level playing field. Bookmakers close the accounts of people who have half a chance with them.

Thats my whole point. It isn't a level playing pitch. Never has never will. A simple example.

If you do 2 number on the lotto, the odds that the vast majority of bookmakers will offer is 60/1.

The actual odds are a little over 72\1.

They give themselves a 20% head start. I doubt they are making 20% on ever bet they offer but they do have an edge.

Theoretically speaking, the more bets that are made the closer the bookies get to making their 20% profit.

I understand that they make mistakes,

However, this is the exception rather than the rule and (b) you habe to be around to take advantage

del roy

Yes, fully agree Hector, sorry I missed your point first time round.

del roy

first day of action for this thread, however looks like Jerry went for good or good to soft ground.

Ante post bets for Cheltenham

Stayers hurdle...supasundae €40 e/w 7/1.....2nd returns €100
Gold cup...Minella rocco €40 e/w 20/1....non runner loser loss €80
Kim Muir chase...Sugar baron €40 e/w 16/1....unplaced loss €80
Grand annual chase...Theinval €40 e/w 14/1...4th....returns €180
Champion hurdle.....Ch'tibello €20 e/w 66/1.....loss €40

LOSS OF €80 FOR CHELTENHAM

well a very poor cheltenham this year.

Bank
126 bets
15 winners

-€1320

del roy

3.40 donjuan triumphant €100 win 11/4 Max bet

del roy

Bank
127 bets
15 winners

-€1420

this venture could be ending soon,

2.30 morning reggie €40 e/w 8/1

goldenhoarde

del roy wrote: »

Bank
127 bets
15 winners

-€1420

this venture could be ending soon,

2.30 morning reggie €40 e/w 8/1

Keep the faith LOL

Its a hard slog but today is a winner winner day!

Mostly Harmless

This from Hugh Taylor is worth watching regarding losing runs:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QaHN-57Ajo&index=4&list=PL_XN3ffygFN4XC-xoeysaHkn-IW-peQ5i

With a 10% edge, a losing run of 30+ is relatively normal if ur betting an average price of 10/1, if ur staking is not at the right level to handle these long losing runs then you will tend to go bust sooner or later.

Having said that I have no idea if ur man's edge has now gone, is also possible and one of major downsides to following other peoples info blindly (a lot of trust involved)

del roy

3.05 applause 12/1 €40 e/w

del roy

goldenhoarde wrote: »

Keep the faith LOL

Its a hard slog but today is a winner winner day!

Are you a bookmaker Goldie.

del roy

2.30 morning reggie €40 e/w 8/1 p.u


Bank
128 bets
15 winners

-€1500

razorhead

He's back....

del roy

Razor, I need a good few more of them and at that price as well but hopefully a start of a claw back.