Can the book be beaten ...long term?

del roy

4.40 nestor park €40 e/w  20/1

Earendil

Fair play on the donation eh...Fanny ****.
Just to mention the email address is still visible on that receipt.

Fanny Wank

Earendil wrote: »

Fair play on the donation eh...Fanny ****.
Just to mention the email address is still visible on that receipt.

Good man! I'm an idiot

Fanny Wank

Fanny **** wrote: »

Jesus Christ........

EDIT: ah f*ck it. If Irish Roe starts 4/1 or lower I'll donate €100 to the injured jockeys fund

I'll try again without my email address being visible (what a clown I am)!!!

10/1 Industry SP

13.0 betfair SP

Said I'd make a donation anyhow

danganabu

Fanny **** wrote: »

I'll try again without my email address being visible (what a clown I am)!!!

10/1 Industry SP

13.0 betfair SP

Said I'd make a donation anyhow

Fair dues, no problem admitting I got it horribly wrong, the market got it right.

Earendil

Fanny **** wrote: »

I'll try again without my email address being visible (what a clown I am)!!!

10/1 Industry SP

13.0 betfair SP

Said I'd make a donation anyhow

No no, fair fcuks man.

Fanny Wank

Earendil wrote: »

No no, fair fcuks man.

Fair play for pointing out I'd left my email visible!!!

del roy

Bank
110 bets
14 winners

-€920

-46pts

Just a few thoughts, I have rarely seen so many horses shorten in the betting and run so badly however that's the chance you take when you take night before or pre 9.30am prices.

As I said before I will stick with the 2k bank and when or if I hit -100pts I will call it a day.

The reason I called this thread..Can the book be beaten....long term is
we all know punters or have been through purple patches ourselves but can it be done long term is the question being put to the sword and it's not looking too good, is it ?

magicmoves

del roy wrote: »

Bank
110 bets
14 winners

-€920

-46pts

Just a few thoughts, I have rarely seen so many horses shorten in the betting and run so badly however that's the chance you take when you take night before or pre 9.30am prices.

As I said before I will stick with the 2k bank and when or if I hit -100pts I will call it a day.

The reason I called this thread..Can the book be beaten....long term is
we all know punters or have been through purple patches ourselves but can it be done long term is the question being put to the sword and it's not looking too good, is it ?

I have a feeling Cheltenham will change your fortune

Imhof Tank

del roy wrote: »

As I said before I will stick with the 2k bank and when or if I hit -100pts I will call it a day.

The reason I called this thread..Can the book be beaten....long term is
we all know punters or have been through purple patches ourselves but can it be done long term is the question being put to the sword and it's not looking too good, is it ?

You have to put some sort of time limit on the experiment as well though surely? In theory you could hover between say -25 and -75 points for years.

Mostly Harmless

110 bets is far too small a sample size to infer anything. You could be making a loss betting coin tosses at 11/10 after 100 odd bets and that would obviously be a profitable bet long term. If you are beating BSP consistently then it will be profitable long term once the variance behaves itself. Whether you can get any real stake long term when betting at overnight prices and beating BSP is a completely different matter.

diomed

I also think the number of races is far too small to reveal the real picture.

In 2015 I had a thread: Recreation & Hobbies/Gambling/Challenges/Logs/Group races, Ireland & England, 2015, flat

It was 215 races with 46 winners but still made a loss of 19.8%.
An example of the randomness was I has 20 horses finish 7th and 0 horses finish 8th.
I had only one win from the first 20 bets, probably due to soft/heavy ground and lack of fitness, or terrible picking.

diomed

I'm thinking of doing another betting thread on the 2018 flat season, probably on maiden races, or lightly raced horses.

del roy

4.30 witness €40 e/w 9/1

del roy

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

110 bets is far too small a sample size to infer anything. You could be making a loss betting coin tosses at 11/10 after 100 odd bets and that would obviously be a profitable bet long term. If you are beating BSP consistently then it will be profitable long term once the variance behaves itself. Whether you can get any real stake long term when betting at overnight prices and beating BSP is a completely different matter.

But its not only 110 bets, it is the whole picture since Jerry started giving us selection. The jury is still out with me but I think the only to stay ahead is get the night before prices however it will not belong before the bookmakers have you cut down to peanuts or worst, will take no bets at all.

I do know Jerry has relations and friends opening accounts for him but in the long run, with the technology the bookmakers have at there disposal they will be pretty quick to catch them out,

so where will he go from there.

diomed

del roy wrote: »

so where will he go from there.

A betting exchange.

del roy

diomed wrote: »

A betting exchange.

will not get the prices he is chasing on the exchanges, only buttons offered the night before.

diomed

del roy wrote: »

will not get the prices he is chasing on the exchanges, only buttons offered the night before.

It depends.
I always use the exchange, but then I almost always bet high priced selections.
My attitude is to put up a price I like in plenty of time, and if I get it fine.
Occasionally I will take all of a price e.g. all the 75s.
If I do not get my price I am happy to let the race pass.

BumperD

Why bet the night before?
Why not wait until noon on the day when there is a market with liquidity?

longshotvalue

I almost completely gave up night before prices, as it seems the best prices available are between 8-11 on a Saturday morning. (im mostly a Saturday punter).

del roy

Bank
111 bets
14 winners

-€1000

-50pts

8.00 lucent dreams €40 e/w 10/1

del roy

Bank
112 bets
14 winners

-€1080

-54pts

7.20 luna eclispe €100 win 3/1 max bet 1st 9/4jf


A winner at last

Bank
113 bets
15 winners

-€780

-39pts

razorhead

del roy wrote: »

Bank
112 bets
14 winners

-€1080

-54pts

7.20 luna eclispe €100 win 3/1 max bet

A nice max bet,

del roy

Still a long way just to go to get just my/our money back, razor.

I don't know whether it was the bad run or he didn't fancy anything but I think I prefer the bets being a bit spread out rather than 3 or 4 on one given day.

anyway softens the blow, just a little.

del roy

2.50 wicked spice 12/1 €40 e/w

This one is fancied by the stable today.

Jerry

del roy

Bank
114 bets
15 winners

-€860

-43pts


2.55 sir egbert €100 win 100/30 max bet
4.40 wandering star €40 e/w 10/1

del roy

Bank
115 bets
15 winners

-€960

-48pts

2.45 through the thatch 7/1 €40 e/w

3.35 ballykan €20 e/w 14/1

Nothingbutbets

Where's 'through the thatch running'?

clevtrev

Nothingbutbets wrote: »

Where's 'through the thatch running'?

back to the thatch at Newcastle I think

Ronin247

Back to the thatch. 7 to 1 Newcastle. 2.45 ???