Can the book be beaten ...long term?

del roy

After 30 years watching and punting I would have to say.........NO. The reason for my answer would be the lack of disipline most if not all punters suffer.
I would say punters need a few things that they MUST have on their side to be given even the slightest chance.

1. DISIPLINE (if you have not got this, take up some other hobby)
2. Plenty of free time to go thru hours of form and watching racing.
3. Seperate betting bank. (nothing to do with normal day to day money).
4. Balls of steel. (to put the same amount on a 20/1 shot as a 6/4 shot.
5. Luck. (again if you are not a lucky person get a different hobby).

I am sure lots more can be added to the above list but they are in my view the things you need to give it ago. This came up in the job the other week and I being the elder/oldest/longest/punter of the group said "a huge NO"
however one lad is adamant that he makes it pay, he says he has been ahead the last three years since he started punting, I remain "doubtful" about him being ahead so I asked him to prove it to me, he said he would give me his bets for the next month but that is not enough time as anyone can have a lucky month so I suggested a year, we ended up with a six month period which in my veiw would not be enough time to say whether someone was a successful punter.
The reason for the thread is I (with his permission) will put up all his bets on here so a few of us can watch and learn (his words) the master.
Maybe I should have named the thread "THE Master" :rolleyes: but it is all in good fun so here we go. We will be starting with a bank of 100pts.

Mussleburgh 1.45 Vallani 8/1 2pts e/w

SRFC

Plenty of experts on here claiming they arent down over the years gambling,most people dont want to admit it they just remember the big winners and think they're ahead,all the small losers add up anyone codding their selves needs to cop on you need information to win in the long run,its all about being on a trier/fit horse.

shamdrog63

Todays bet is a 2pts e/way but what would his maximum be? 5pts? The fact that somone is monitoring his bets will help him to be disciplined which is as you stated the most important factor in betting for profit.

Colonel Sanders

The book can only be beaten if you consistently bet at prices that under estimate your selection (there was a very long & contentious thread on this not so long ago).

I agree re discipline & a separate betting bank. Luck evens itself out in the very long run

Re having the same on a 20/1 shot as a 6/4 shot, this is nonsense. Your stake should vary in proportion to how much edge you feel you have

eg you make a horse at Leopardstown a 5/1 shot and you also make a horse on the same day at Chepstow a 5/1 shot. You can get 8/1 the horse at Leopardstown but 10/1 the horse in Chepstow. You should have more on the horse at Chepstow. There are any number of staking systems, Kelly being the most widely known/quoted

I know plenty of people who "make it pay" from professionals (mainly poker/sports rather than racing in the case of people I know) to those who can consistently show profits year in year out without it being their primary source of income

Harry Angstrom

SRFC wrote: »

Plenty of experts on here claiming they arent down over the years gambling,most people dont want to admit it they just remember the big winners and think they're ahead,all the small losers add up anyone codding their selves needs to cop on you need information to win in the long run,its all about being on a trier/fit horse.

Sure all they have to do is follow Willie Mullins

SRFC

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Sure all they have to do is follow Willie Mullins

The bank of Willie Mullins is right,every monday i've to get a brinks van to the house to take my winnings to the bank :cool:

CueCard7

You can't beat watching lots of live races to give a small edge.

Also going with horse you feel will win.

Rather than trying to get a big price.

Be willing to oppose even money shots e/w.

Always go on prior form.

Don t back horses coming back from a break.

Stay away from shorties in low grade chases.

Keep in mind stable form.

Don't back in Kempton/Dundalk/Southwell

Dont back every race.

Bear in mind trainer/jockey momentum.

flutered

one of the most sucessful old time profesional punters it has been my pleasure to travel with would only bet in maiden races, then it had to be national hunt, but he has gone to that great betting ring in the sky, i know nothing of modern day racing, just adding to the thread.

shamdrog63

CueCard7 wrote: »

You can't beat watching lots of live races to give a small edge.


Don't back in Kempton/Dundalk/Southwell

Provided you are sober when you watch them.You,ve just rubbished my ideal Friday night out.A few dung blackeners and a bet in the last at DinDawk to try and pay for the night.;)

mdwexford

I imagine close to zero people on here are in profit lifetime.

It's just a hobby for the majority of people, the hours of study it would take to be a successful gambler just isn't feasible for most people.

CueCard7

Thanks for this. Can see why he might be in profit.

Took 8-1 price halved.

I will now lay off for free ride.

Slattsy

No.

CueCard7

Lucky I laid off

Not following blind anymore

The advent of the exchanges has made things tougher for punters.

You have to ask yourself the question: do I really know more than the risk department in the bookies, or the collective 'wisdom of crowds' on Betfair? The former employ mathematically minded horse racing enthusiasts to work full time on their books. The latter is proven to be an even better guide to real chance of winning, which means as soon as a bookie finds himself making an arb he'll pull the price back in.

I like to think I am shrewd enough but am well aware I do if for enjoyment rather than profit.

tryfix

If you're disciplined and good at picking selections, you might have the ability to beat the book, but you won't know until you record every bet you make and see how it balances out. I used to keep a ledger for 3 years, in two out of three years I had a very small loss and in the third I had a small profit, but there was 10% tax back in those days, so in today's tax free world I would have been in profit each year. I found that certain race types suited my punting skills and stuck to them, staying chases and 10f plus flat races suited my picking skills, and picking reasonably short priced horses 6/4, 5/2, up to about 6 or 7/1 was the best strategy while having only one bet in a day on the most standout value bet of that day.

CueCard7

CueCard7 wrote: »

You can't beat watching lots of live races to give a small edge.

Also going with horse you feel will win.

Rather than trying to get a big price.

Be willing to oppose even money shots e/w.

Always go on prior form.

Don t back horses coming back from a break.

Stay away from shorties in low grade chases.

Keep in mind stable form.

Don't back in Kempton/Dundalk/Southwell

Dont back every race.

Bear in mind trainer/jockey momentum.

btw disagree with loads of this!

watching live races - usually very hard to see what is jumping well, how each horse is travelling. In addition, you can get a visceral 'thrill' when seeing a strongly finishing horse live that then means you compare him favourably and unfairly with another you've only seen on video.

"going with a horse you feel will win" can't disagree more #valuenotwinners

"always go on prior form" - always be looking for a horse you can expect a career best from - that hasn't been factored into the odds or handicap.

"jockey momentum" - unless it's linked to a stable, which of course it often is, I don't really buy this. I think it's always wise to be very cautious of spurious trends and runs of form. Mathematically they don't mean much, so unless there's a logic behind them, I would take no notice.

anyway, that's racing - all about different opinions. Like I say I am not money making machine...

Hulk Hands

mdwexford wrote: »

I imagine close to zero people on here are in profit lifetime.

It's just a hobby for the majority of people, the hours of study it would take to be a successful gambler just isn't feasible for most people.

Well define a successful gambler? What about an arber who solely backs arbs where he can't lose? Granted his accounts won't last long but there's plenty of ways around that. There are plenty of people who solely arb out there. Every single one of them is in profit if they don't mix in punting.

From listening to people on here, there are a few who are certainly ahead from gambling. You know that simply by accounts being restricted and it's not hard to tell who's serious and who's talking muck. In my own circumstance, I am certainly up from gambling and am fairly sure I haven't had a losing year since my late teens. All smallish stakes of course. I'm not a genius by any means, but I do know how to cheat like continuously arbing, backing ricks, bad e/w and bonus whoring. I have a small advantage in a couple of sports where I don't need to cheat. As far as racing goes, most don't have the expertise to profit from form reading. However it doesn't take a genius to consistently beat the price, especially using early price on Irish racing and having a full range of accounts. Simply following the moves and using books that are slow to react is an almost foolproof method. My accounts are disappearing one by one, but like I said, there's ways around that for anyone with imagination.

There are a lot more winning gamblers out there than people realise. It's a very central theme to Kevin blakes new book, that the perception that the books always win is wrong, and it doesn't take a genius to win. The problem in this country is the 'ah fuuck it' attitude to gambling. People will drive 2 miles to get petrol 5 cent a litre cheaper but won't take 3 mins to open a new account and avail of best price.

mdwexford

Of course arbers are and similar to yourself I have bonus whored and taken advantage of offers.

I'd describe successful as making enough profit to warrant the time you put into it.

A handful of people here might be in profit but a small minority I imagine.

It sounds like you are good at taking advantage of situations but most people aren't nearly as clued in as you and just back a few horses and a few football matches and look at it the same as buying a few pints or cigarettes or something.

Whenever I walk into a bookies it's generally the same youngish guys under 25 and lot of Asian guys who back every single horse race, dog race, numbers and whatever else is on at the moment. They run up to counter every 2 minutes throwing more money away. That's what the average punter is like not like you.

Slattsy

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Well define a successful gambler? What about an arber who solely backs arbs where he can't lose? Granted his accounts won't last long but there's plenty of ways around that. There are plenty of people who solely arb out there. Every single one of them is in profit if they don't mix in punting.

From listening to people on here, there are a few who are certainly ahead from gambling. You know that simply by accounts being restricted and it's not hard to tell who's serious and who's talking muck. In my own circumstance, I am certainly up from gambling and am fairly sure I haven't had a losing year since my late teens. All smallish stakes of course. I'm not a genius by any means, but I do know how to cheat like continuously arbing, backing ricks, bad e/w and bonus whoring. I have a small advantage in a couple of sports where I don't need to cheat. As far as racing goes, most don't have the expertise to profit from form reading. However it doesn't take a genius to consistently beat the price, especially using early price on Irish racing and having a full range of accounts. Simply following the moves and using books that are slow to react is an almost foolproof method. My accounts are disappearing one by one, but like I said, there's ways around that for anyone with imagination.

There are a lot more winning gamblers out there than people realise. It's a very central theme to Kevin blakes new book, that the perception that the books always win is wrong, and it doesn't take a genius to win. The problem in this country is the 'ah fuuck it' attitude to gambling. People will drive 2 miles to get petrol 5 cent a litre cheaper but won't take 3 mins to open a new account and avail of best price.

Screen-shots please

Motivator

Having worked in the industry for a long number of years I can honestly say I have never seen a serious punter in profit long term. My brother has also worked in the industry but is now a full time Betfair layer/punter. In over 20 years of watching/working in the betting industry I have never seen a better judge of a horse or a horse race than him. He set up a Betfair account about 7 years ago & for the first year he was ahead (iirc) about €17,000. Since then he has been losing thousands every year, I can tell you if he can't make long term profits doing what he's doing then nobody can - I don't care what anyone says.

I've seen people have €1,000s on horses & I've seen people have €1. Regardless of stakes, the punter cannot sustain a constant level of profit no natter what information or knowledge they think they have.

CueCard7

Is Hugh Taylor's column not in profit?

I'd imagine JP McManus is nt keeping that fleet of horses for the good of his health.

Alan Potts is a pro gambler.

How does your brother sustain such losses?

Motivator

CueCard7 wrote: »

Is Hugh Taylor's column not in profit?

I'd imagine JP McManus is nt keeping that fleet of horses for the good of his health.

Alan Potts is a pro gambler.

How does your brother sustain such losses?

Whatever about Hugh Taylor, Alan Potts is a multi-millionaire entrepreneur. JP the same. Neither made their fortune from punting - although JP made plenty of cash from laying big bets back in the day.

My brother has plenty money & is retired. I reckon he's losing €10,000 - €15,000 a year. Plenty people with mortgages & young families losing plenty more.

hucklebuck

CueCard7 wrote: »

Is Hugh Taylor's column not in profit?

It possibly is if you use the price he says on his column but the price is well gone when his selection goes live.

CueCard7

Well he could stake the bets before they go live.

Potts started out through gambling and that's how he and JP McManus got the capital needed to become entrepreneurs.

P o Brady came back from Cheltenham with half a million and it was this money he used to get started in life.

del roy

Right lads a message to everyone

As this thread is hopefully going to run for six months lets all be at least civil to each other so we can all comment for the whole six months.

A few things
I think Arbers are different to people who gamble and let everything ride on the result of the race whether that be right or wrong in people's mind.

Can I also suggest that coming on here saying I know people who make several thousand a year maybe irrelevant unless we can have some sort of info on what the people are gonna do over the next few months.

The only reason I started this thread is the guy who says he is a winning punter is willing to put up or shut up and I can honestly say I am a big believer in

IT CANNOT BE DONE

However I remain open minded and I have stated to him that I would only say he was successful if he returned a 50 percent profit because as someone earlier said there is no point putting in 4 hours a day studying for six months and it resulting in €1 per hour after 6 months with a roi of about 3 or 4 percent.

On to today, VALLANI finished 3rd thanks to the young jockey who never gave up the chase.

4pts stakes
5.2pts returned

Starting bank. 100pts
Bank now. 101.2pts
Profit. 1.2pts


Btw I have decided to back all these to €20 per point.

Colonel Sanders

Do you mean 50% profit on initial bank or on turnover?

If it's the latter forget about it, most pros work to c8-9% on turnover in my experience

del roy

50 per cent of the bank, time is money Mr Sanders and anything less I would be better suited behind the counter in a fast food outlet on minimum wage.

SRFC

Motivator wrote: »

Whatever about Hugh Taylor, Alan Potts is a multi-millionaire entrepreneur. JP the same. Neither made their fortune from punting - although JP made plenty of cash from laying big bets back in the day.

My brother has plenty money & is retired. I reckon he's losing €10,000 - €15,000 a year. Plenty people with mortgages & young families losing plenty more.

Just for for the record Alan Potts the pro punter is not alan potts who owns sizing europe.

del roy

just sent a text

2.00 Monsieur Jamie 1pt e/w 8/1 and 3.10 Midnight charmer 2pts win 5/2

mr.jingle

In my own experience, there is not a hope i can beat the book long term. As my dad says you only hear your friends talk about the winning bets, but very rarely do they tell about the losing bets.

In just over 10yrs of gambling I would say i'm down a big 5 figure sum possibly 6 figures. Taken me over 10yrs to find that gambling isnt my game and only recently closed all my accounts as I start losing discipline again.

Anyone that has the time, patience an most of all discipline to be in profit over a sustained period has my admiration as its such a tough game to win on without putting in the proper effort.

I fear for people like Cuecard, betting every race is the quickest way to the poorhouse, some of the points you put down in an earlier post made me want to reach into the screen and slap some sense into you but if you haven't got it by now that your on a slippery slope then you've only yourself to blame as you've been warned numerous times on this by others. In fact you remind me of a younger idiotic me, backing for the sake of backing and watching a race.

Anyways good luck with this log it could be an interesting read over the coming months

CueCard7

But if I don't bet on a race it won't let me see it online.

I'm in profit.

Just follow my tips in tip thread you'll see that im in profit

mr.jingle

CueCard7 wrote: »

But if I don't bet on a race it won't let me see it online.

I'm in profit.

Just follow my tips in tip thread you'll see that im in profit

For the moment you may be in profit i've seen your selections the world knows you got a 23/1 forecast up well done on that but if your betting because you want to watch a race online then you are heading in the wrong direction! Believe me i've been there and it's a road you want to go.

I can't give you anymore advice than that

Hulk Hands

Motivator wrote: »

Having worked in the industry for a long number of years I can honestly say I have never seen a serious punter in profit long term. My brother has also worked in the industry but is now a full time Betfair layer/punter. In over 20 years of watching/working in the betting industry I have never seen a better judge of a horse or a horse race than him. He set up a Betfair account about 7 years ago & for the first year he was ahead (iirc) about €17,000. Since then he has been losing thousands every year, I can tell you if he can't make long term profits doing what he's doing then nobody can - I don't care what anyone says.

I've seen people have €1,000s on horses & I've seen people have €1. Regardless of stakes, the punter cannot sustain a constant level of profit no natter what information or knowledge they think they have.

If nobody can consistently win then how come accounts are being restricted and closed left right and centre? These accounts aren't being stopped if the punter is losing money or consistently putting on - ev selections. The betfair model alone should tell you how many people are winning. If it's punter vs punter, and the book is only taking 5%commission, then logic states that some of them must be winning. Granted the majority are losing and a few of the bigger hitters are taking a lot of the profit, but it still means some are winning and it's by no means impossible or even rare.

Maybe some others here are shy about claiming their winners. At the risk of inflating heads, the likes of Colonel is certainly ahead if he's as nitpicky as he suggests on here. Certainly his powers and vc weren't closed for no reason. There's a few others I suspect aswell on here. It's near impossible to make a living from gambling unless you're something special at sports/probability and have some sort of Patrick vietch setup in order to get bets on. However, it is possible to win a small amount consistently if you're picky on price, understand the industry and have a reasonable understanding of probability and sports

Francie Barrett

Back in my youth, I probably lost a few thousand a year. Nowadays, I would say that I break even and might bet on 10 horses a week as opposed to 100 before. I think a few other factors are at play in improving my returns. Simply betting on less horses is the first one. Cutting the amount I bet with drastically is the next. Having access to online betting is another one. Betfair accounts for maybe half my bets now, very often you're better off with the exchange for big priced horses. Getting early prices with traditional bookies also helps.

I would say if I stuck to just having 2-3 bets a week, I'd say I would make a small profit.

liamoreilly

...hope this isn't derailing thread too much...
...with regards to long term profit, I'm sure it can be done... I know I'm up each of the last 3 years (possibly 4/5), admittedly it was due to the big festivals( mostly Cheltenham), and one or two well timed tips... I definitely am not a pro, and wouldn't say ill continually win every year, not a hope I will to be honest...
...But I've been up in last 5 cheltenhams, and I reckon if I only backed during them 4 days each year I'd die in profit...I think as long as your disciplined, you can defitinitely be up...
...I'd say the main contributors, rossom, jimjackos, aidankk and that genius urban sea would be up, at least one of them.. and im 99% sure someone on irishpokerboards is up as well...He did own our conor and bitched about him at 33/1 for 6 months,..he also has a knowledge of horses that ive never known is possible...



Also to add, when it comes to sports betting not horses, I'm also up...And I know several people who are up a huge amount in this...things like soccer, snooker, boxing tennis and darts are all sports that are extremely possible to win at consistently...

jimjamcos

liamoreilly wrote: »

...hope this isn't derailing thread too much...
...with regards to long term profit, I'm sure it can be done... I know I'm up each of the last 3 years (possibly 4/5), admittedly it was due to the big festivals( mostly Cheltenham), and one or two well timed tips... I definitely am not a pro, and wouldn't say ill continually win every year, not a hope I will to be honest...
...But I've been up in last 5 cheltenhams, and I reckon if I only backed during them 4 days each year I'd die in profit...I think as long as your disciplined, you can defitinitely be up...
...I'd say the main contributors, rossom, jimjackos, aidankk and that genius urban sea would be up, at least one of them.. and im 99% sure someone on irishpokerboards is up as well...He did own our conor and bitched about him at 33/1 for 6 months,..he also has a knowledge of horses that ive never known is possible...



Also to add, when it comes to sports betting not horses, I'm also up...And I know several people who are up a huge amount in this...things like soccer, snooker, boxing tennis and darts are all sports that are extremely possible to win at consistently...

Noel Hayes is his name, I think. Works for the Irish Tote and takes part in a weekly podcast called 'The Final Furlong' along with Kevin Blake and a few others. He's very knowledgeable alright and himself and the podcast are well worth a follow (good banter on it too). He gave very good word for Meade & JP's bumper winner over the weekend, only problem was he tipped it for Sunday not Saturday and I missed it!

Harry Angstrom

Keeping a strict leger of your bets is a very good way of maintaining discipline. It's easy enough to forget the losers and remember the winners. If you record every bet, you'll be far less likely to have wild speculative bets on horses you don't really fancy.

hucklebuck

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Keeping a strict leger of your bets is a very good way of maintaining discipline. It's easy enough to forget the losers and remember the winners. If you record every bet, you'll be far less likely to have wild speculative bets on horses you don't really fancy.

Do you think there would be merit to scoring your bets 1 - 10 with a comment explaining the score?

d-gal

Of course the bookies can be beaten. Some of the stuff people are saying is nothing short of ridiculous.
I know 8 or 9 people that live off their gambling money and they all have different ways of doing it.

The 2 best at it are completely different. One is a dog specialist. Works off 3 tracks and makes a small fortune each time. That's all by information.
The other backs specials with different betting firms or slightly standout odds and then lays them on betfair. He has no interest in betting or watching the event. He just looks where he can make money

del roy

hucklebuck wrote: »

Do you think there would be merit to scoring your bets 1 - 10 with a comment explaining the score?

hucklebuck, the guy who selections I am puting up says he is a 1pt to 6pt man. however he says he has two singles and a e/w double on al ferof 10/1 king george and alfie sherrin 20/1 grand national I have seen the docket but its of no use to this thread as them prices are gone.
1pt e/w on both and 1pt e/w double

d-gal

d-gal wrote: »

Of course the bookies can be beaten. Some of the stuff people are saying is nothing short of ridiculous.
I know 8 or 9 people that live off their gambling money and they all have different ways of doing it.

The 2 best at it are completely different. One is a dog specialist. Works off 3 tracks and makes a small fortune each time. That's all by information.
The other backs specials with different betting firms or slightly standout odds and then lays them on betfair. He has no interest in betting or watching the event. He just looks where he can make money

Not saying you are lying, but punter #2 would be closed down within a couple of weeks by any decent bookie. The easiest things to spot are arbs, and punters who only come in for them, and they are the first to be shut down.

So I wonder how he gets on enough to make serious money.

Hulk Hands

Hulk Hands wrote: »

If nobody can consistently win then how come accounts are being restricted and closed left right and centre? These accounts aren't being stopped if the punter is losing money or consistently putting on - ev selections. The betfair model alone should tell you how many people are winning. If it's punter vs punter, and the book is only taking 5%commission, then logic states that some of them must be winning. Granted the majority are losing and a few of the bigger hitters are taking a lot of the profit, but it still means some are winning and it's by no means impossible or even rare.

the people bookies close or restrict are (in the main) people with information. of course you can beat the book if you are good friends with a nameless trainer who lets you know when its 'the day' - and have the discipline to only back when you have that info.

they are also the people making money on betfair, although the betfair example is wrong-headed as nothing in the model implies that a specific group of people are winning consistently. Everyone could be breaking even.

on the betfair note - that's the whole reason they could put the punitive charges on people consistently making big money on it. they have no choice - no bookie will take their money.

mr.jingle

mr.jingle wrote: »

I fear for people like Cuecard, betting every race is the quickest way to the poorhouse, some of the points you put down in an earlier post made me want to reach into the screen and slap some sense into you but if you haven't got it by now that your on a slippery slope then you've only yourself to blame as you've been warned numerous times on this by others. In fact you remind me of a younger idiotic me, backing for the sake of backing and watching a race.

to be fair - as long as you know that's what you are doing, I don't see a problem with it.

I enjoy horseracing and betting, if I'm at the races for an afternoon (or watching on television) I bet for the enjoyment and I'd get involved in every race, or at least nearly every race.

I would see any system I employ as minimising my losses rather than maximising my winnings...

SRFC

This Cue Card lad doesnt bet in every race,dont feel sorry for him hes only punting with monopoly money.

jimjamcos

SRFC wrote: »

This Cue Card lad doesnt bet in every race,dont feel sorry for him hes only punting with monopoly money.

We heard you the first time..

Hulk Hands

Deleted User wrote: »

the people bookies close or restrict are (in the main) people with information. of course you can beat the book if you are good friends with a nameless trainer who lets you know when its 'the day' - and have the discipline to only back when you have that info.

No, the books restrict smart customers who constantly put on +EV bets. Whether they be arbs, or movers or whatever else. The vast majority of sports have little to no 'information' whatsoever i.e Soccer, Rugby, Snooker, Tennis etc. Are the customers winning at those not restricted? A bookie can't tell if you have information. If you are constantly backing horses early price that half in price they will assume you have information and restrict alright. There are any number of other reasons for restriction though

Deleted User wrote: »

they are also the people making money on betfair, although the betfair example is wrong-headed as nothing in the model implies that a specific group of people are winning consistently. Everyone could be breaking even.

No, not everyone could be breaking even, because of comission. Of course they could all be breaking even before commission but common sense dictates that there are plenty of winners and losers.

Hulk Hands

Hulk Hands wrote: »

No, the books restrict smart customers who constantly put on +EV bets. Whether they be arbs, or movers or whatever else. The vast majority of sports have little to no 'information' whatsoever i.e Soccer, Rugby, Snooker, Tennis etc. Are the customers winning at those not restricted? A bookie can't tell if you have information. If you are constantly backing horses early price that half in price they will assume you have information and restrict alright. There are any number of other reasons for restriction though

you obviously know your stuff and I have no desire to have a big argument about this but I worked in the industry for many years and:

• Backing winners won't - or shouldn't - get you cut unless you are really consistent
• Consistently backing at early prices on horses that shorten up probably will, but only because they think you are connected somehow
• If there's ANY pattern WRT connections etc then it most definitely will (although you will stay open, as you are a mark)
• Arbers are usually cut or closed without hesitation - no need to keep them open. "not punters"
• The vast majority of cuts are in racing, so other sports are irrelevant. Racing is 10x more bent than any other sport, all the real risks are in racing
• There are a small number of sports punters who probably win consistently. Tennis and golf maybe, not much on soccer at all. Bookies LOVE soccer bettors, whoever they are.
• In general, bookies are not worried about geniuses who can read the form better than they can. There are probably some out there, but they are insignificant, and not something that keep them awake at night. And anyway, they will soon know who they are and use them as a mark as well. They are almost providing a service.

Hulk Hands

I'd completely agree with most of that. I know plenty of sports only bettors though who get restricted. You can get movers in sports also (more so low grade). The margins in soccer are smaller, hence it can be easier to beat at times. Live betting is also very important in sports. Anyways, this is a racing forum, so as far as racing goes, I dont think information matters unless you only back a certain stables runners etc. Anyone I know restricted for racing has been robbing early prices rather than info.

Hulk Hands

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I'd completely agree with most of that. I know plenty of sports only bettors though who get restricted. You can get movers in sports also (more so low grade). The margins in soccer are smaller, hence it can be easier to beat at times. Live betting is also very important in sports. Anyways, this is a racing forum, so as far as racing goes, I dont think information matters unless you only back a certain stables runners etc. Anyone I know restricted for racing has been robbing early prices rather than info.

of course I can only speak for the place I worked in, so it's going to be different everywhere.

in general if someone's piling into a horse at 16/1 at 10 in the morning then the risk team are thinking "what does he know?", if someone is doing the same on a football match they are just taking the money. unless the football match is in the ukranian 4th division of course....

flutered

Motivator wrote: »

Whatever about Hugh Taylor, Alan Potts is a multi-millionaire entrepreneur. JP the same. Neither made their fortune from punting - although JP made plenty of cash from laying big bets back in the day.

My brother has plenty money & is retired. I reckon he's losing €10,000 - €15,000 a year. Plenty people with mortgages & young families losing plenty more.[/QUOTE)

jp knew a little more about the ones that he layed than some of the punters that backed them, back in the day they were guys that were thrown money at bookies like confetti at a wedding, i started at the game when i was 12, i finishe up when i was 45, i was lucky in that i raised my family from it, then i got tired of it, i also got ill, in the last twenty years i have not been on a course twice, when i was at it i was never a bookies shop, i also kept my ears open and my mouth shut, but i developed a sense for the odd horse that i was sure would win, not often, one good story, i got married on a wedensday, the o/h wanted to go up the west, i wanted to go to clonmel, i got my way, i was putting on a few quid for a small time trainer, which i did, plus a few for myself, as i could get on without the battle, which i think was 10 %, the fcuker decieded he did not want to win after jumping the last and finished second, not a great start to married life.

flutered

put did not thee famous john the bank who alwasy claimed that saturday was a way to print money, as there was so much sport on that punters could not study it properly go broke, it wa himself that could not study it, he forgot that punters stuck to one or two meetings.