Possible Storm / Strong winds 26th to 28th October 2013 ?

ninebeanrows · 26-10-2013 10:25am

Latest NAE has it missing most of England!

Would be serious fun and games in the UK if it missed.

The thing has already been hyped up to such a level that even if the most severe
charts we've seen hit them, it would be below their expectations. But a complete miss and i'd fear for the MetO!

pad199207 · 26-10-2013 10:28am

Id laugh if it did! Netweather would go into meltdown for all the wrong reasons.

Pa ElGrande · 26-10-2013 10:35am

The nightmare scenario for the MET office

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqs1YXfdtGE

What happened in 1987

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciBox3QHYq4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjNE5hTXL3k

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kCxwkoVnLo

dopolahpec · 26-10-2013 10:47am

The English have lost the run of themselves with regards this low. '48 hour mega storm' lol. The very far southern coasts of England look like getting clipped with storm force winds. That's it.

maquiladora · 26-10-2013 11:06am

dopolahpec wrote: »

The English have lost the run of themselves with regards this low. '48 hour mega storm' lol. The very far southern coasts of England look like getting clipped with storm force winds. That's it.

You're making the mistake of listening to the media about the weather instead of looking at the charts. The media is in the business of making money, and in their business the bigger the headline the bigger the money.

As for how bad it will be, it's too early to tell. The most extreme solution this morning would be the GEM run which has a deepening low of 962mb in the middle of the country with sustained winds of 40-45 knots right in the midlands. With a possible sting jet gusts would be up to ~100 mph if that came off.

It's not the most likely outcome now I think, but still possible.

Sierra Oscar · 26-10-2013 12:26pm

The models are starting to hint at another intense wind storm next weekend that would impact on Ireland. Still way too far out to say for certain if it will even happen though.

kit3 · 26-10-2013 1:22pm

As things stand, how are things looking for Dublin on Monday morning ?

Clonmel1000 · 26-10-2013 1:48pm

Cause the Irish never hype up weather events......

snaps · 26-10-2013 3:51pm

A lovely picture of the depression winding up to the NW. The front can be seen clearly over East Ireland. Just starting to get dark here now (South East Poland) as you can see on the right of the picture. Beautiful day here yet again, 21c, blue skies. I moved from Ireland at the start of September, so 7 weeks in and only had 5 wet days.

maquiladora · 26-10-2013 6:56pm

Notice that this has been added by Met Eireann this evening :

Outlook is for some very disturbed weather.

A storm depression is expected to track to the southeast of Ireland overnight Sunday and in to Monday bringing the very worst conditions in over Wales and England. However we can expect some nasty conditions also with some very heavy rain in many areas and local flooding: the potential of some very severe winds also on parts of the east and southeast coasts for a time.

The reason for this is the 12Z HIRLAM has really ramped up Monday's low into a 960mb depression crossing the UK with strong gales along southeast and east coasts here, touching storm force at times, with violent storm force at times in the Irish Sea and hurricane force winds shown around the coast of southwest England and Wales. Potential for a serious windstorm for those areas in the UK if that came off even if there wasn't a sting jet or strong convective gusts.

It's only one model, but HIRLAM at 48 hours is usually pretty good.

TireeTerror · 26-10-2013 7:07pm

The Met office in the UK has said there were hopes this would along the channel, however they are certain the UK will feel the full force of the hurricane on Sunday morning.

Mesut Ozil · 26-10-2013 7:09pm

TireeTerror wrote: »

The Met office in the UK has said there were hopes this would along the channel, however they are certain the UK will feel the full force of the hurricane on Sunday morning.

What hurricane?

TireeTerror · 26-10-2013 7:11pm

umm I mean storm!

Subconsciously I must be getting excited for this event!

Planet X · 26-10-2013 7:16pm

TireeTerror wrote: »

The Met office in the UK has said there were hopes this would along the channel, however they are certain the UK will feel the full force of the hurricane on Sunday morning.

......or Monday morning?

TireeTerror · 26-10-2013 7:24pm

Thats it, Im getting the noose.....

DOCARCH · 26-10-2013 7:27pm

TireeTerror wrote: »

Thats it, Im getting the noose.....

:eek:

Hal1 · 26-10-2013 8:54pm

Maybe he meant moose? moose hearder possibly?

ElizaT33 · 26-10-2013 9:16pm

The latest Satellite pic makes it look like its headed straight for us .....:eek:. I've a LOT of old trees around my house .......

M.T. Cranium · 26-10-2013 9:51pm

Have a look at this recent satellite picture. The "primary" low is the small circular feature west of Donegal and this one will be responsible for just some moderately strong wind gusts in Ireland tonight and tomorrow.

The large expanse of cloud in the middle of the Atlantic northwest of the Azores and about due south of the east coast of Greenland is the developing "secondary" low. At this point in time, ship reports indicate that there is no strong circulation yet, winds are only 20-30 knots. This is the storm in its infant stages. You can also see what's left of former Tropical Storm Lorenzo as a patch of orange in the warm sector of this storm. There again, winds with that cloud mass are probably around 20-30 knots. In the Azores right now it's cloudy, misty or drizzly for some locations and very mild for time of day (20-22 C) and a light south wind is reported.

So not to worry about "the storm" heading right for Ireland, that's the lesser of two evils and it's going to weaken gradually overnight and tomorrow as it passes to the north. The secondary will keep moving along in the jet stream and won't begin to develop much (according to most models) until it gets off the south coast of Ireland around 9 p.m. Sunday, then by about 0300h it will be explosively deepening somewhere between Wexford and Bristol. In that phase, winds could still be quite calm on the northern flank but eventually the strong circulation will pull in the air mass you can see on the satellite image flowing away from Greenland, that will have crossed the Atlantic so it won't be all that cold any more, maybe 7-9 C but it will be rather unstable so it is likely to fill up with bands of showers. The radar over Ireland is likely to show these by mid-day Monday.

I'm still thinking this storm will track into southern England and agree it could be somewhat over-hyped in some quarters but I do expect some minor damage at least, and gusts that could reach 70 knots in well exposed locations. Really to be very frank, nobody knows within 10-15 knots how strong this could become, the guidance is well scattered and not every single factor you look for in severe wind forecasting is at a 10/10 checkpoint, the jet stream could be a bit stronger, and the wind shear is only moderate. On the other hand, sea surface and air mass temperatures are anomalously high giving plenty of energy potential. I think we have to take a compromise of all guidance at this point and say moderately strong likely, very strong possible.

It will make for a very interesting day of weather watching on Monday, but the chances of severe wind gusts in Ireland from this storm are very low, the peak gusts will come before this storm arrives and then again well after it passes. It would not be surprising if some places were almost calm when the thing goes by to the southeast on Sunday night.

vickers209 · 26-10-2013 10:17pm

Met Have a yellow warning out for tonight and tomorrow morning

National Weather Warnings

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Ireland

Strong to gale force southwest to westerly winds will gust 80 to 90 km/h., at times during Sunday. Winds may occasionally gust up to 100km/h., along parts of the West and Northwest Coasts.
Issued:
Saturday 26 October 2013 19:00
Valid:
Sunday 27 October 2013 06:00 to Sunday 27 October 2013 15:00

Sierra Oscar · 26-10-2013 10:43pm

Latest GFS doesn't show much of a storm impact on England at all. In fact the storm has essentially disappeared on the latest run.

All eyes on the next run ...

dopolahpec · 26-10-2013 10:43pm

Feck all storm on the GFS 18Z

M.T. Cranium · 26-10-2013 11:04pm

18z GFS not always the best guidance and nobody in the business would change a forecast just on its input alone, I'm sure it has prompted some concern but most will wait for the 00z models before assuming too much here.

RobertKK · 26-10-2013 11:27pm

The express has done a storm damage report, says the storm will cost the UK £1 billion.
Mystic Meg must be very busy working for the Daily Express.

BorneTobyWilde · 26-10-2013 11:42pm

Can someone explain how this storm will ''batter UK'', yet hit Ireland as a breeze seeing as it hits Ireland first

BorneTobyWilde · 26-10-2013 11:45pm

Sky News act like Ireland does not exist, ''storm will hit west coast of UK'
Hello Ireland is in the way !

loubian · 26-10-2013 11:46pm

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Can someone explain how this storm will ''batter UK'', yet hit Ireland as a breeze seeing as it hits Ireland first

When we had the heatwave the UK issued a national energency because it was 31/32 eegrees Celsius! They want drama!!

Wanderer2010 · 26-10-2013 11:46pm

Any idea will this affect any flights from Cork to London next week, I have one on Thursday afternoon, never flew from Cork before dont know their record for cancellations etc, I hope its not that bad..