Possible Storm / Strong winds 26th to 28th October 2013 ?

ninebeanrows

The 18z would be one of the worst systems to hit the southeast of England in a while, but nothing particularly spectacular. However the prospect of 80mph gusts in that area (which the latest run progs) would gather a lot of media attention.

Everything a bit south at the moment for Ireland but plenty of time to change. And more chance of it heading north if the models are underestimating its intensity at this stage which is very likely.

maquiladora

The Weather Channel (UK) have an article and some graphics up about what might happen. This is their version of the worst case, with a more northerly track. In this case very strong winds could impact the east coast here as well as the UK, but the more southerly the track is the less of an impact for us, and there's a reasonable chance that we end up with nothing more than a breeze.



http://uk.weather.com/story/news/severe-weather-outlook-st-jude-day-storm-28th-october-2013-20131023

maquiladora

Monday's low is still too far south to have an impact on us on this mornings models. Some models don't develop it at all, but the big two, GFS and ECM, both develop it and take it over southern England. The ECM shifted to a more northerly track this morning. Need to keep an eye on it in case of further changes. Far from nailed yet, but at the moment southern England looking most at risk of strong winds.

Harps

Been very busy of late so haven't been keeping up with things, I'm in the south if England at the moment so I'll be keeping a close eye on this now, looks interesting on this mornings runs for around here.

maquiladora

Harps wrote: »

Been very busy of late so haven't been keeping up with things, I'm in the south if England at the moment so I'll be keeping a close eye on this now, looks interesting on this mornings runs for around here.

Yep, this kind of thing would be a fairly typical autumn storm for the exposed northwest coast of Ireland or western Scotland, but it's a different kettleofish for southern England where a storm taking a track like this is more rare, and is more densely populated, with a lot more "stuff" that could be damaged by high winds.

Weathering

Yeah I agree Maq, nothing out of the ordinary up here but it would do a lot of damage in S.England. The Express will have a field day if this happens

odyboody

seem to recall forecast storms missing us at the last minute when they veer north. Is this lightly to happen or is the predicted track different enough to mean it will stay south.

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep, this kind of thing would be a fairly typical autumn storm for the exposed northwest coast of Ireland or western Scotland, but it's a different kettleofish for southern England where a storm taking a track like this is more rare, and is more densely populated, with a lot more "stuff" that could be damaged by high winds.

maquiladora

UK Met Office not taking any chances. Strongly worded early warning.

A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across the country early on Monday, bringing the potential for an exceptionally windy spell of weather for southern parts of the UK. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding.

At this early stage there is uncertainty about the timing, intensity and track of the low. However, the public should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures, bringing disruption to transport and power supplies.

A strong, high-level jet is expected to engage warm low level air to give rise to a rapidly moving low pressure system later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, probably across England and Wales, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. There is the potential for gusts of over 80 mph, especially on exposed coasts, both in southwesterly winds ahead of the low and west to northwesterly winds behind it.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=se&fcTime=1382918400&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-1.83&lat=53.85

ninebeanrows

6z GFS says neigh.

snaps

maquiladora wrote: »

UK Met Office not taking any chances. Strongly worded early warning.



http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=se&fcTime=1382918400&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-1.83&lat=53.85

its made sky news now:
http://m.sky.com/skynews/article/news/1159179

ninebeanrows

12z's will be interesting.

If the GFS 12z follows the 6z the chances of an extreme event are much lowered.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

12z's will be interesting.

If the GFS 12z follows the 6z the chances of an extreme event are much lowered.

UK Met don't seem to be buying the 06Z GFS route.



They do they show the alternative northerly and southerly tracks too though :

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/Severe-storm-risk

Iancar29

Looks like the Met Office are on the ball so far...
12 z showing possible 85mph GUSTS for the English channel ... starting to decline now any chance of us getting anything out of the ordinary .

ninebeanrows

Latest UKM pushes this further north, parts of the south/east are not out of the woods yet. And experience tells us these things can head further north than anticipated.

At T96hr, bombing low has moved rapidly through the UK

Sierra Oscar

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest UKM pushes this further north, parts of the south/east are not out of the woods yet. And experience tells us these things can head further north than anticipated.

Indeed, how many times have we narrowly missed a storm at the last minute due to the system pushing an extra fifty miles too far north or the likes? Quite often if I recall correctly!

One to keep an eye on for sure.

dopolahpec

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Indeed, how many times have we narrowly missed a storm at the last minute due to the system pushing an extra fifty miles too far north or the likes? Quite often if I recall correctly!

One to keep an eye on for sure.

I dunno I think as it stands, north or South track changes won't affect us too much. This low is basically in the north Sea when it really develops. It's the Danes and Dutch who need to batten down the hatches.

maquiladora

dopolahpec wrote: »

I dunno I think as it stands, north or South track changes won't affect us too much. This low is basically in the north Sea when it really develops. It's the Danes and Dutch who need to batten down the hatches.

It wouldn't take a big shift in track impact to the southeast/east coastal areas here.

Today's 12Z UKMO track and intensity looks something similar to yesterday's 0Z GFS, which looked like this :



Which had storm force winds along the east coast here :

ninebeanrows

dexter647

^^^^^:D
Was wondering how long it would take for that classic to pop up

mike65

Indeed, mentioned it was 26 years +10 days since that moment to my sister. Time flies!

mike65

Met Errean have their feet up in front of the fire with a glass of whiskey

Sunday looks like being a very windy blustery showery day, highest temperatures around 11 to 14 degrees with the risk of some severe winds for a time especially in the North.

Sunday night will be rather cold with showers becoming isolated and winds easing. Mist and fog patches will form inland with perhaps a touch of grass frost.

Bank-holiday Monday looks dry for much of the country with sunny spells and isolated showers but there is the risk of some rain clipping the Southeast coast. It will be a cool day with highest temperatures of 10 to 12 degrees in a fresh Northerly wind, blustery around coasts.

Westerly winds look like setting in for Tuesday next bringing a mixture of sunshine and showers

ninebeanrows

ECM very interesting with its positioning, again further north, this is very much a fluid situation and e storm could yet impact Ireland.

ECM bombs this over 30hPa in 24hrs

Sierra Oscar

Models do indeed seem to be hinting at a more northern path. Will be interesting to see if the next round stick with that line of thought!

ScouseMouse

Hi guys and gals.

I dont mean to annoy anyone but whats the opinions for english channel? I happen to be on rosslare - cherbourg ferry sat night 6pm to arrive sunday at noon.

My untrained eye looking at those charts says im in for a Rough ride (if any)

Cheers all.

maquiladora

superscouse wrote: »

Hi guys and gals.

I dont mean to annoy anyone but whats the opinions for english channel? I happen to be on rosslare - cherbourg ferry sat night 6pm to arrive sunday at noon.

My untrained eye looking at those charts says im in for a Rough ride (if any)

Cheers all.

At the moment it looks like the timing will be late Sunday to early Monday, so you'll probably be fine if it stays like that.

RobertKK

Is it possible we could get something like the Christmas eve storm?

I remember the uncertainty about that storm and knew it was going to be bad before it arrived when listening to the radio news and the reporting that slates were coming off roofs in Cork city.
An hour or two after all hell broke loose, but it didn't last too long.

maquiladora

RobertKK wrote: »

Is it possible we could get something like the Christmas eve storm?

I remember the uncertainty about that storm and knew it was going to be bad before it arrived when listening to the radio news and the reporting that slates were coming off roofs in Cork city.
An hour or two after all hell broke loose, but it didn't last too long.

It could be a similar type of setup to that yes, but with Wales/England getting the high winds. At the moment though none of the models are showing it taking a track over Ireland. That could change over the next couple of days, but right now we're in the clear.

ninebeanrows

RobertKK wrote: »

Is it possible we could get something like the Christmas eve storm?

I remember the uncertainty about that storm and knew it was going to be bad before it arrived when listening to the radio news and the reporting that slates were coming off roofs in Cork city.
An hour or two after all hell broke loose, but it didn't last too long.

The synoptic is not too dissimilar to the storm that left my skaletrix in its box on Christmas morning

Villain

Well the GFS wants to take the ball and go home this morning!

maquiladora

0Z GME shows it tracking over Ireland. Just one model but something to keep an eye on.



GFS doesn't make much of it this morning, but the ECM, GEM and UKMO (and the Fax charts) all show a strong low heading over the UK, with the ECM being the strongest.