Possible Storm / Strong winds 26th to 28th October 2013 ?

ninebeanrows

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Latest GFS run seems to show the system as being more intensive as compared to the last run, also seems to be placing the system slightly further north?

Yes, but GFS has been quite poor with this last day or two and is playing catch up at the moment. The UKM and ECM have had this already tracking that far north or further north. Will be interesting to see if they continue further north again this evening.

Calina

DOCARCH wrote: »

The name of the ship...I suspect.

Knorr is one of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute ships. Judging by WHOI's website, it's in the northwest Atlantic at the moment http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=8581 which is a bit further NW than this storm I think. Currently some bit south of Greenland and to the NE of Newfoundland and the Gulf of Saint Lawrence.

hypersonic

fast moving black clouds heading for wexford town from the south west, it's looks very ominous.

edit: but no sign of it on the radar

JanuarySnowstor

Well the wind is not going to be an issue for us but the rain will be.
Flooding most likely for the South and East early Monday morning

hypersonic

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well the wind is not going to be an issue for us but the rain will be.
Flooding most likely for the South and East early Monday morning

agree, we've had 18cm already this month and hit 14mm/hr last night, the ground is soaked, won't take much to cause some flooding.

ninebeanrows

Sunday is looking very windy in its own right. Latest ECM shows quite a tight gradient across the country, with the potentially vicious storm system developing in the southwest approaches.

ninebeanrows

Looks severe from England on tonight's ECM

ninebeanrows

I like the fact this storm is going to 'miss' us as no expectation,

But i have a strong hunch that this storm will be an historic storm, end up deeper than shown on current guidance and thus further north.

I think parts of the east/southeast coast could be impacted by the backwash of this storm and when the system is at it's peak stage of intensification, bringing a sting jet risk.

M.T. Cranium

The transfer of energy from primary to secondary lows will perhaps reduce the impact of the primary just a little as this sort of pattern often underperforms on primary gusts. That being said, max gusts will probably be into the mid-50s (knots) in well-exposed areas on Sunday. Those will not be too extreme for the regions concerned.

The secondary is almost locked into a track across southern England now with the degree of model consensus unlikely to shift very far, but we should retain perhaps a 10% risk of this coming further north into southeast Ireland. Rain could be heavy for a time but as the system is very fast-moving I think the concerns may be greater than the results, we'll see.

This storm (unless there is a huge last-minute model bust) is only a big concern for any Irish residents who have travel plans that involve southern England, the Channel or northern France (to Denmark eventually) on Monday. There will probably be some air and sea travel disruptions and I would not want to be on the roads in south central or southeast England during the day. Gusts to 75 knots or 145 km/hr are quite possible in exposed areas of southeast England and northern France, as well as the Channel Islands, during about a six-hour period before and during the passage of this low. I don't expect Irish Sea ferries to be disrupted by actual winds, although conceivably by forecasts across the southern routes. This storm will have a very sharp gradient of observed wind gusts that could run from 60-75 knots on the active side to 30-45 knots on the northern flank and those would likely come well after the low centre has passed by (as well as before it due to the primary).

Villain

I've already recorded 179.9mm this month making it my wettest October since station was installed in 2008 and I suspect I could see easily see another 40mm by month end!

ninebeanrows

Just using a GFS Ensemble member to give an idea of what i think the eventual outcome could be.

Closer to the time i expect system to be deeper earlier than expected and thus track further north.

JackieChan

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The transfer of energy from primary to secondary lows will perhaps reduce the impact of the primary just a little as this sort of pattern often underperforms on primary gusts. That being said, max gusts will probably be into the mid-50s (knots) in well-exposed areas on Sunday. Those will not be too extreme for the regions concerned.

The secondary is almost locked into a track across southern England now with the degree of model consensus unlikely to shift very far, but we should retain perhaps a 10% risk of this coming further north into southeast Ireland. Rain could be heavy for a time but as the system is very fast-moving I think the concerns may be greater than the results, we'll see.

This storm (unless there is a huge last-minute model bust) is only a big concern for any Irish residents who have travel plans that involve southern England, the Channel or northern France (to Denmark eventually) on Monday. There will probably be some air and sea travel disruptions and I would not want to be on the roads in south central or southeast England during the day. Gusts to 75 knots or 145 km/hr are quite possible in exposed areas of southeast England and northern France, as well as the Channel Islands, during about a six-hour period before and during the passage of this low. I don't expect Irish Sea ferries to be disrupted by actual winds, although conceivably by forecasts across the southern routes. This storm will have a very sharp gradient of observed wind gusts that could run from 60-75 knots on the active side to 30-45 knots on the northern flank and those would likely come well after the low centre has passed by (as well as before it due to the primary).

Any idea what are the roughest seas that ferries can operate in on the Irish seas? The fast ferries (already cancelled with Irish Ferries over the weekend) seem to be cancelled regularly

JackieChan

Weathercheck wrote: »

Just using a GFS Ensemble member to give an idea of what i think the eventual outcome could be.

Closer to the time i expect system to be deeper earlier than expected and thus track further north.

If that came to pass would it cancel all paasenger ferries on the Irish Sea on Monday

ninebeanrows

JackieChan wrote: »

If that came to pass would it cancel all paasenger ferries on the Irish Sea on Monday

Yes!

Unless the Captain likes sailing in violent storm force 11!

ScouseMouse

Already asked earlier in the thread, but any opinions guys and gals.

Ferry departing Rosslare 6pm Saturday to arrive in Cherbourg at noon Sunday and back again Wednesday night at 9pm to arrive Thursday afternoon.

Am I right in thinking ROUGH would be a description?

maquiladora

superscouse wrote: »

Already asked earlier in the thread, but any opinions guys and gals.

Ferry departing Rosslare 6pm Saturday to arrive in Cherbourg at noon Sunday and back again Wednesday night at 9pm to arrive Thursday afternoon.

Am I right in thinking ROUGH would be a description?

Have a look.

http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-Surf-Chart/1/?chartType=WMAG#?chartType=WMAG&_suid=138273070358102548242189267452

Looks like about 15-20ft swell as you get close to France on Sunday.

sneakyST

Ok guys. I'm living bang in the South of England, in a rural location, surrounded by oak trees. Should I be concerned about this? Trying to ignore the hype but have just stocked up on food.
Sunday will be securing everything. We've had a lot of rain and the house is within striking distance of a couple of trees.....what do you think?

Harps

The storm has already been hyped up here in England to the point that it's become the standard conversation starter, I've heard that it'll be the worst storm since 87 a few times and theres even warnings on the info signs on the motorways.

On the charts it doesn't look like anything too severe having lived in Donegal but I'd imagine it'll be a different story for SE England, especially with most trees still in full leaf.

maquiladora

YouTookMyName

Supposed to be flying Bristol to Dublin at 8am monday morning.

Have a feeling it'll be a long day.

Mech1

Just a reminder,
http://www.flightradar24.com/53.54,-5.94/8
to watch the planes,


http://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=eidw
To listen to the live ATC feed.

maquiladora

Harps wrote: »

The storm has already been hyped up here in England to the point that it's become the standard conversation starter, I've heard that it'll be the worst storm since 87 a few times and theres even warnings on the info signs on the motorways.

On the charts it doesn't look like anything too severe having lived in Donegal but I'd imagine it'll be a different story for SE England, especially with most trees still in full leaf.

It's not unusual for intense mature Atlantic lows to bring strong winds to northwest coasts here or up in Scotland, but it is more unusual for a storm like to take a track into Wales and southern England during it's deepening phase. Off the top of my head I can't think of one like that since October 2000. It probably won't be quite as severe as that, but the trees, tree limbs and structures etc. in southern England and Wales don't get tested as regularly as they do in Donegal for example, so there's a lot more stuff that would be prone to getting knocked down or damaged. It's also much more densely populated than rural Ireland or Scotland and the peak winds could arrive during morning rush hour.

There is a lot of overblown hype in the British media, I can't see it being anywhere near as severe as 1987. But at least people will be aware.

APMom

Regarding sailing in storms we came home from France one year in Gale Force 10, AFAIR the boat had come over to France in a Force 11. The ship was swaying even when in port and it got wayyy worse when at sea. About 2am after hubby and kids went asleep I videod the sea coming over the front of the boat up to our cabin window. When my phone connected with UK signals at Lands End I phoned my Mom and told her we were going to DIE!! It was awful. It only died down about 7am and I got to sleep after hubby and kids woke up. Kids thought it was awesome of course. I don't think I've ever been as scared since then.

mrmright

superscouse wrote: »

Already asked earlier in the thread, but any opinions guys and gals.

Ferry departing Rosslare 6pm Saturday to arrive in Cherbourg at noon Sunday and back again Wednesday night at 9pm to arrive Thursday afternoon.

Am I right in thinking ROUGH would be a description?

Yes it will be bumpy. Worked on ferries some many years ago and there is nothing to worry about. All ships go through sea trials and can easily withstand storm force winds at sea. The ship will use stabilisers in these conditions which will delay your journey. If there is a risk to safety a ship will not sail. Just remember when on board the best area of a ship to be is the lowest most central during bad weather. Hope that helps a little.

mrmright

superscouse wrote: »

Already asked earlier in the thread, but any opinions guys and gals.

Ferry departing Rosslare 6pm Saturday to arrive in Cherbourg at noon Sunday and back again Wednesday night at 9pm to arrive Thursday afternoon.

Am I right in thinking ROUGH would be a description?

Sorrry should have stated the obvious. You will be travelling out of the bad weather. The only affected sea travel should be France to Dublin.

M.T. Cranium

I just watched the developing storm gobble up poor little Lorenzo like a midnight snack. Run an animation and you'll see.

Wave is now about 400 miles southeast of Newfoundland and 00z upper air from CMC shows 196 knot steering winds at 250 mb.

Agreed it won't be quite as severe as Oct 1987 in England but perhaps close. The track is a little different so not quite as much potential for a squall line feature. Could be some F1-2 tornadic wind streaks in northeast France and Belgium with this.

Update -- not much different on 00z GFS

ninebeanrows

Most models downgrade intensity of storm this morning and push system slightly further south.

Nothing major on this mornings output.

Sigh of relief at the MetOffice.

- of course this is still a significant weather event but nothing too exceptional

YouTookMyName

Weathercheck wrote: »

Most models downgrade intensity of storm this morning and push system slightly further south.

Nothing major on this mornings output.

Sigh of relief at the MetOffice.

- of course this is still a significant weather event but nothing too exceptional

Further south into the English Channel?

maquiladora

Maybe not the right thread for this, but Estofex have issued a level 1 for Ireland, for today.

... British Isles and surroundings ...

The frontal system of the next pronounced low-pressure system crosses the British Isles. A strongly sheared and helical flow is forecast to develop in a narrow belt ahead of the cold front due to a concentrated Southwesterly low-level jet (25-30 m/s at 850 hPa). With marginally unstable profiles and strong forcing, a shallow convective line is expected to cross Ireland around noon and most of the UK by midnight. Severe wind gusts are possible, and a few tornadoes are not ruled out in the case that more discrete convection can crystallize along segments of the line.
After a few hours of postfrontal subsidence, a new round of deeper and more vigorous convection will move onshore overnight with the next vorticity lobes. Deep-layer shear will then decrease due to a more equalized flow through the depth of the troposphere, but with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE over the relatively warm sea and a further tightening gradient at low levels, even ill-organized storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts. Limited area models agree on the development of a comma over the Celtic Sea overnight, though the solutions are highly diverging with respect to its timing, intensity and path. Hence it was decided to stay with a high-end level 1, though there is a possibility of widespread severe wind gusts in Ireland, Wales and Cornwall very late in the forecast period, when the 850 hPa flow starts to exceed 30 m/s!

25-30 m/s is 90-110 km/h by the way.

We'll see if it actually happens, but worth pointing out.

Back on topic...

There is no sign on the models this morning of Monday morning's low tracking further north over Ireland, it's still on course to track over Wales/England though we could get some heavy rain from it for a while.

There is some disagreement on the models of how strong it will over the UK, but that's to be expected since it's on the far side of the Atlantic and won't be getting it's act together until the final 12-24 hours.

UKMO:<980mb
NAE: <975mb
GFS: 969mb
ECM: 966mb
GEM: 962mb

TireeTerror

mrmright wrote: »

Just remember when on board the best area of a ship to be is the lowest most central during bad weather. Hope that helps a little.

WHAT??? Get out on the bow and turn your jacket inside out and hold it above your head like a sail and lean over the front! Then you will really know what its like to be alive. Embrace the storm, they happen too rarely.