WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

maquiladora

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Great forecast from simon keeling just now. Looking good for next week and might be getting a blast from the east after the first week of dec

The problem with an easterly now is that the continent is warmer than usual, so an easterly wouldn't deliver cold enough air. An easterly isn't always a beasterly. If this was in the middle of winter things would be different. Our best chance of a significant cold spell would be to have a follow up northeasterly after the initial cold spell. So thats what you'd want to see develop on the models.

alfa beta

Kenring wrote: »

The northern full moon between 18-20th will probably bring a temperature dip and some precipitation, and therefore maybe some hints of snow

Well - much and all as many here take Ken's forecasts with a grain of salt (and that sorta usually includes me!) you can't deny that the charts are now backing this call up (the quote is from the 1st Nov in this thread.)

Stopped clock and all that you might say - well, we'll all draw our own conclusions but an interesting call none the less.

Anyhow, in the same thread a post or two later he also predicted the last few days of Nov to bring colder weather - so gonna be watching the charts now to see how that pans out.

nacho libre

maquiladora wrote: »

The problem with an easterly now is that the continent is warmer than usual, so an easterly wouldn't deliver cold enough air. An easterly isn't always a beasterly. If this was in the middle of winter things would be different. Our best chance of a significant cold spell would be to have a follow up northeasterly after the initial cold spell. So thats what you'd want to see develop on the models.

it doesn't take that loOng for the land to cool at this time of year, if we do get a reload from the east, after the initial cold spell from the northerly, with a portion of the pv dropping over siberia and cold air spreading westwards, it wouldn't take that long for the near continent to cool down.

rickdangerouss

nacho libre wrote: »

it doesn't take that loOng for the land to cool at this time of year, if we do get a reload from the east, after the initial cold spell from the northerly, with a portion of the pv dropping over siberia and cold air spreading westwards, it wouldn't take that long for the near continent to cool down.

I checked the Moscow temp and forecast, looks to be having a range of 1-6c over the next ten days, around average.

I also looked at 2009\2010. Snow started for them at the same time as us.
Good news is the wind looks to be changing and coming from the east for Moscow, soon.

Things can change quick.

Larbre34

Very true about the continental land temperature currently, however a decent cold spell now will drag that land temp down further and earlier than average, which is of benefit for future cold reloads. Remember, this is test cricket, not Twenty-20

maquiladora

nacho libre wrote: »

it doesn't take that loOng for the land to cool at this time of year, if we do get a reload from the east, after the initial cold spell from the northerly, with a portion of the pv dropping over siberia and cold air spreading westwards, it wouldn't take that long for the near continent to cool down.

I just can't see an easterly maintaining itself long enough for that to happen, in November, with temps already above average over there. A northeasterly cold plunge, like 2010, would seem more realistic to me, but even that was very rare for November.

Thats all very much Fantasy Fantasy Fantasy Island though at the moment...

Frank Garrett

Larbre34 wrote: »

Very true about the continental land temperature currently, however a decent cold spell now will drag that land temp down further and earlier than average, which is of benefit for future cold reloads. Remember, this is test cricket, not Twenty-20

Are likening snowy weather to possibly the shíttest sport ever invented?

Larbre34

Frank Garrett wrote: »

Are likening snowy weather to possibly the shíttest sport ever invented?

Only because cricket watching and snow watching have one thing in common, frequent frustration!

Tindie

About next week cold snap!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/24944891

pad199207

Some fantastic runs into FI but thats all they are unfortunately

patneve2

I really like the GFS +150 hr chart. First of all (and most importantly), the GFS sees 500 hPa temps well below -35 degrees, with a few spots below -40 degrees (mainly over Wales). Secondly, 850 hPa winds are NNE, which would allow convection forming over the Irish sea (still at 12/13C remember) to flirt with E coast (but only in coastal margins). Lastly, thicknesses are below 528 dam on the E coast. If this chart verified, I'd be surprised if there weren't heavy graupel and snow showers (maybe with limited accumulations). Its a 150 hr chart and looking at wind direction and 500 hPa temps is quite pointless at this stage, but I am starting to get a little excited I must say. Lets leave it at what you guys said earlier - getting cold next week with wintry showers in North and severe air frosts at night...

Iancar29

Lovely GFS so far !



Flow a bit more NE now , bringing in the east ( mainly high ground ) for possible

snow

And look at those heights heading into Greenland ...

jaffusmax

A Prolonged Cold Spell Setting Up Next Week?

Goes to show don't right off any winter because of any LRF from any source! Even if it does not come off very interesting to watch!

maquiladora

GFS in FI shows hints at the type of northeasterly I was talking about. Very nice to see but a long way to go and very much FI.

Meanwhile, the cold spell for early next week is pretty much certain now.

jaffusmax

AO & NAO to take a dive

Iancar29

In the words of our old friend SuCampu ,

" 850 temps isnt always the key to getting snow ,one must look at other things in the atmosphere , 500-1000hp thickness and dps are also essential for snow to make its way down through the atmosphere . "


tickness of below 520 .... CHECK !

dps below 0 c ..... CHECK !




Now all we need is moisture...

jaffusmax

Lamp post and Dew Point watching for me then soon!

arctictree

jaffusmax wrote: »

Lamp post and Dew Point watching for me then soon!

I remember New Years Day 2010, around 10pm. Temp outside was -4c. Precip to the south and North of me streaming by. Conditions were perfect but hardly a flake in my location....

patneve2

Lets hope that the ECM doesn't shift the cold river from the North too far East. Very happy with the 12z GFS at the moment.

Iancar29

......... Should i scale back the excitement by a notch ? :P

maquiladora

The GFS control run is perfection. Pretty much the absolute best case scenario possible for November. This is deep FI and low resolution of course, strictly 100% FI.

snowstorm445

GEFS control FI:



**faint**

jaffusmax

snowstorm445 wrote: »

GEFS control FI:



**faint**

relaxed

alfa beta wrote: »

Well - much and all as many here take Ken's forecasts with a grain of salt (and that sorta usually includes me!) you can't deny that the charts are now backing this call up (the quote is from the 1st Nov in this thread.)

Stopped clock and all that you might say - well, we'll all draw our own conclusions but an interesting call none the less.

Anyhow, in the same thread a post or two later he also predicted the last few days of Nov to bring colder weather - so gonna be watching the charts now to see how that pans out.

Ken says coldest end of November, so whatever happens next week later November needs to be colder again for him to be right. So that would probably mean -6 to -8, but he said somewhere else we won't get severe cold this winter.

Kens forecast technique is a bit like a fortune teller - throw enough vague statements out there, like "probable temperature dip" and "hint of snow" and everybody will read something different into it.

Like you said stopped clock right twice a day.

Late August was supposed to hit 30 degrees too, according to Ken:)

rickdangerouss

Found this on my travels.

Explains some of the possible reasons for what happen in 2010\2009 winter.

http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/meetings/polar-jet-stream-13

It is sponsored by the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), the Climate and Cryosphere Project (CliC) and the Icelandic Met Office.

dopolahpec

Some phenomenal stuff getting churned out. That GFS control run that Maq posted is a belting north east snow machine. It's something else to browse these charts today. Nervous for the ECM to be honest. The 0z was messy

Iancar29

ECM and GFS very similar at T192hrs ....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

dopolahpec

ECM 12Z a huge improvement over the ECM 0z. What was looking like a cold 'snap' is quickly evolving into something verrrrry innnnnterrrrrressssting

leahyl

dopolahpec wrote: »

ECM 12Z a huge improvement over the ECM 0z. What was looking like a cold 'snap' is quickly evolving into something verrrrry innnnnterrrrrressssting

STOP! *must not get dragged into this madness!

patneve2

I prefer the GFS to ECM up to 180 hours, but both are good runs. Interesting few days ahead.