WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

jaffusmax

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Anybody else noticed the sky has turned purple! Random

Yeap my wee one is glued to the window!

glenmac

Purple here in the Wicklow mountains

Weathering

I haven't see the latest runs as of yet but it's only one run, I'll wait until this evening/tonight's runs before I start crying

dexter647

The gfs 12 z is very disappointing indeed but then again it's early days yet and I for one ain't going to get to down beat over one run. It's only mid nov and we are already getting some great charts so I'm very optimistic about this coming winter....Roll on Ecm:)

xXxkorixXx

glenmac wrote: »

Purple here in the Wicklow mountains

reddish-purple in arklow too

snowstorm2013

I promised I wouldn't get carried out with the talk of November snow but alas today, which was what I would consider a fantastic late autumn day, checking I had shovels etc in car. I unblocked drains around of leaves . Felt all good about seeing a few flurries at least.... but that latest run has destroyed my hopes. I know its to early in the season but I can feel the depression of no snow setting in... I not as chirpy as earlier today.

icesnowfrost

It's only one run and I'm sure things will change over the next 72hrs we might just get wat we want I love cold and snow lots of snow but at least we are getting a good cold blast of air. Better then wet mild shyte

dopolahpec

ECM says no even to wintry showers Tuesday Wednesday with the coldest uppers missing Ireland completely.

Cogsy88

ECM has gone the same way as the GFS.

dopolahpec

Give it a few weeks. I think this part of the Northern Hemisphere is better set up for cold in the coming weeks than I could have imagined a few days ago. This might be a busted flush for some unique early cold, but sit tight for the reload.

finnharpsboy

the postman has spoken http://www.donegaldaily.com/2013/11/15/donegal-weatherman-michael-predicts-a-white-christmas/

derekon

dopolahpec wrote: »

Give it a few weeks. I think this part of the Northern Hemisphere is better set up for cold in the coming weeks than I could have imagined a few days ago. This might be a busted flush for some unique early cold, but sit tight for the reload.

Major downgrade for cold on the 12z ECM just rolling out now with the colder -8 temps missing Ireland altogether (though might skirt the East coast).

However, it was never going to be snowmageddon so we have to put things into perspective. Still a cold week ahead nonetheless and it shows once more the danger of putting too much trust in the weather models. The atmosphere is a fickle thing

D

Blizzard 2010

finnharpsboy wrote: »

the postman has spoken http://www.donegaldaily.com/2013/11/15/donegal-weatherman-michael-predicts-a-white-christmas/

He was predicting snow before christmas last year which never materialised. Anyway my money is on a white christmas this year and he could be right this time:D

diceyd

the snow ploughs were all lined up in work today(airport)

Blizzard 2010

Model Output - probably a wobble, Service will resume again tomorrow, Weather Models are allowed to wobble from time to time

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Model Output - probably a wobble, Service will resume again tomorrow, Weather Models are allowed to wobble from time to time

So true

And lads, we have the pub run to come !!! :pac:

patneve2

Well if its any consolation the 12z is an warm outlier when compared to the ensemble mean (regarding Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). Lets hope that its not going to set the trend for the few next runs.

eskimocat

Really enjoyed the last few pages of posting... ah the highs so swiftly followed by the lows.

I agree though, weather charts are allowed to have a wobble or two... but no more than that!! lol

Will wait for the pub run.

Weathering

Looking better THUS FAR concerning early days on next week. 84hr -8 over Ulster and Northern Leinster

Cogsy88

Ireland just misses out again. This happens every time -8 uppers over most of England after 102hrs.

Weathering

Cogsy88 wrote: »

Ireland just misses out again. This happens every time -8 uppers over most of England after 102hrs.

-8 uppers covering the majority of Ireland 90hrs. Did you fail to see that? Given how much it changes from run to run it's encouraging it's better that the last GFS output

rickdangerouss

Weathering wrote: »

-8 uppers covering the majority of Ireland 90hrs. Did you fail to see that? Given how much it changes from run to run it's encouraging it's better that the last GFS output

Pub run, however I will take that for a start.

Upgrades...

Cogsy88

Weathering wrote: »

-8 uppers covering the majority of Ireland 90hrs. Did you fail to see that? Given how much it changes from run to run it's encouraging it's better that the last GFS output

Yea for all of 12 hours. Ideally we need to see higher heights over Greenland for anything interesting to happen.

shell820810

Could anyone advise which day is likely to be least effected by snow for travel from Derry to Belfast from Tuesday to Thursday?

mickger844posts

GFS Pub run slightly better than 12z but still nothing special. ECM is always my go to for trends so hopes for next week not that high after their 12z output. Still interesting model watching ahead with the key not to get too excited at anything beyond 7 days.

Cogsy88

The earlier the beast from the east arrives the better. If it's to late the streamers won't contain much moisture cause sea temps are too low. Usually snow events in February or March are frontal.

Cogsy88

In terms of reliability what are peoples views on the CFS model.

Harps

In the grand scheme the 'downgrade' doesn't change much, still a cold, mostly dry and calm week ahead with overnight frosts. Unless everything falls perfectly into place and there's a sustained cold feed then snow isn't very likely this early in the season so there's little point stressing over the details, I'l gladly take a clear frosty week to get winter up and running

Cogsy88 wrote: »

In terms of reliability what are peoples views on the CFS model.

CFS isn't a built as a day to day model, its used for forecasting long range trends like monthly temperature anomolies so its no good watching it for next weeks weather. From my sporadic viewing it does seem to have a general grasp of longer range forecasts though I have no idea on its verification stats. Its main claim to fame on here is that it likes to come up with some extreme cold solutions so its great for the FI thread!

Frank Garrett

Harps wrote: »

In the grand scheme the 'downgrade' doesn't change much, still a cold, mostly dry and calm week ahead with overnight frosts. Unless everything falls perfectly into place and there's a sustained cold feed then snow isn't very likely this early in the season so there's little point stressing over the details, I'l gladly take a clear frosty week to get winter up and running



CFS isn't a built as a day to day model, its used for forecasting long range trends like monthly temperature anomolies so its no good watching it for next weeks weather. From my sporadic viewing it does seem to have a general grasp of longer range forecasts though I have no idea on its verification stats. Its main claim to fame on here is that it likes to come up with some extreme cold solutions so its great for the FI thread!

Wouldn't frosty weather help cool the seas? Very little power in that Sun.

ZX7R

no the frosty weather would not have much of an effect on cooling the sea