WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

Calibos wrote: »

In no way am I interpretting the FI ramping as meaning a damn thing but what kind of charts were coming out on the 13th of November 2010? Or did the magic charts hinting at what was to come not appear till closer to that magic night of the 26th of November. Its mad when one thinks about it. This time 3 years ago we were slightly less than only 2 weeks away from the beginning of a month long snowmageddon

[EDIT] Found It

ie. even this time 3 years ago the signs were there.

Rather deafening silence on this forum now, now that the cold is abating somewhat, as predicted, both in solar and lunar terms.
Solar because the sun is warming up in its new cycle 24, albeit very gradually over the next 18 months, and lunar because we are moving away from the both perigee/northern declination combination that always brings a rush of colder air southwards from the Pole.
The last days of November were in our predictions for the cold spell, and it was always only going to be temporary. It probably won't be as cold again until the end of December. It doesn't mean Caribbean temperatures will suddenly descend on Ireland, but it does bode well for the trend forecast for winter, that is that cold intervals would alternate with milder ones, and that end of October, end of November and end of December/early January temperatures would be the periods that would define the extent of the season's cold, and overall it may not turn out to be the record cold season for Ireland that those well-paid experts misled everyone about. Perhaps they will be proven correct in the long run, we shall see, but so far I think not.
As to the silence here, could be something about cats and tongues..

leahyl wrote: »

I haven't seen anything saying that we're heading for snowmageddonso I refuse to get excited yet!

• Low min temps for all by day and frost to -3, -4 for inland areas.
  
• Wintery showers in the north ,hail , snow and even GRAUPLE at low levels there.
  
• Some showers for the east possible from the ECM as WC pointed out with more of the NE flow .
  
  
  
• ..... Rain for Cork :P

Weathering wrote: »

I think it's unfair to single Ken out. If a certain someones LR forecast was quoted in the same light I don't think we'd be seeing quite the same response on here. In conclusion all LR forecasts are a waste of time no matter who supplies them

Iancar29 wrote: »

Its more so the evolution of the charts into #WINTERMODE . Heres how id summarise this evenings charts.

• Low min temps for all by day and frost to -3, -4 for inland areas.
  
• Wintery showers in the north ,hail , snow and even GRAUPLE at low levels there.
  
• Some showers for the east possible from the ECM as WC pointed out with more of the NE flow .
  
  
  
• ..... Rain for Cork :P

snowstorm445 wrote: »

What? Not even a bit of snizzle or even Shleet?! :mad:

I'm with leahyl on this one. I think this cold snap won't be much more than a short Arctic blast, with wintry showers confined to high ground mostly. Most of this cold spell is also a long way of in meteorological terms, and a lot can change for better or for worse.

I certainly do hope it plays out though. Always nice to have a good, biting start to winter.

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Looks like MT is going with a warming trend after Wednesday next week

maquiladora wrote: »

A cold spell/snap is all but certain now for early next week. Whether is lasts 2 days or 4 days etc. is not known yet, and whether the pattern changes enough to allow a more significant cold spell following that is even more of an unknown. Sub-zero temperatures at night away coastal areas, getting down to -4 or a bit lower is possible, so fairly widespread frosts. In terms of snowfall potential, high ground in northern and northwest areas most likely to see some snow, possible at times at lower levels but I wouldn't expect too much of that.

Add another to the list

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-144.png?6



06z control seeing the light- so much so we get the optimum of a fully cut off GH at 144.

Huge upgrades today in what people are seeing from the models, ALL based on them seeing what is really happening V what they thought was going to happen-

Lets cast our minds back to 2010

13th nov 2010 00z GFS 192
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2010111300-0-192.png?0 ridging NE over Greenland

14th nov 2010 00z GFS 168
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2010111400-0-168.png?0
Blocking WAA more vertical

15th Nov 2010 00 GFS 144
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2010111500-0-144.png?0 Even More vertical

16th Nov 2010 00z GFS 120
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2010111600-0-120.png?0 Totally vertical

** hang on where did the Aleutian High appear from?
Next day 17th Nov 00z GFS 96
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2010111700-0-96.png?0

& ACTUAL 20th
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2010/archivesnh-2010-11-21-0-0.png



Same today - arctic High suddenly being modelling from nowhere will also support the ridging Northwards-

Expect upgrades for the next 48 hours as everything 'sharpens up' North South' rather than west east, expect the high to get the southern tip to Greenland before shearing east towards Svalbard & Norway....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=7&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0

so last one from me- this is where its at- the November 2010 run- very very plausible....

S