WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

dopolahpec

Weathering wrote: »

GFS isn't bad, it just isn't as good as the previous run however the UKMO is better so we await the ECM

Out to T144 on ECM and it's grim viewing. Looks like ridge to collapse over us before heights go anywhere near Greenland.

That ol' familiar feeling

dopolahpec

Ok I'd certainly take ECM 192. Looks like ECM is going to bring cold in anyway. Maybe even stronger cold.

Weathering

dopolahpec wrote: »

Out to T144 on ECM and it's grim viewing. Looks like ridge to collapse over us before heights go anywhere near Greenland.

That ol' familiar feeling

Yes, not looking as good. We're battled hardened at this stage so I'll wait until next runs before I become too disheartened
and then 192 makes an appearance ha

dopolahpec

Weathering wrote: »

Yes, not looking as good. We're battled hardened at this stage so I'll wait until next runs before I become too disheartened
and then 192 makes an appearance ha

I can't believe it's only mid November. This is golden stuff. Great craic. Late frames of ECM are mega but it's a complex route there.

Weathering

dopolahpec wrote: »

I can't believe it's only mid November. This is golden stuff. Great craic. Late frames of ECM are mega but it's a complex route there.

Indeed. Sleep routine is already f.. 4-5months of fun to come

maquiladora

The models will chop and change, but you can't take individual operational runs to heart every time they roll out. The overall picture is still the same : a cold spell starting early next week, how cold remains to be seen, and whether it lasts 2-3 days or a bit longer remains to be seen. Any potential snowfall will most likely be in northern and northwest areas with high ground most likely to see it. What happens beyond that in terms of an extended cold spell or reloads of cold is as questionable as it was yesterday.

Remember : It's easy to fall into the trap of believing the FI charts you want to believe in. Just enjoy them, don't believe them.

pistolpetes11

I do love the annual winter weather watch , the excitement is already building,

Although it does somewhat make me think of this :

jaffusmax

'Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81 3m

Latest EC32 maintains northern blocking or high pressure over the UK right through to the 15th of December. A distinctly 'un-zonal' pattern'

There may be some backtracking from those saying this cold snap will just be a blip.

Harps

A full blown Scandi High on the 6z GFS, shame it's November and not February but still looking like a bitterly cold intro to the winter

Iancar29

That'll do me thank you very much! :cool:

leahyl

It won't do me Iancar!!! :P

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

It won't do me Iancar!!! :P

You'll have to turn the country upside down for Cork to get snow from a northerly.

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

You'll have to turn the country upside down for Cork to get snow from a northerly.

Any way you could do that Maq?

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

Any way you could do that Maq?

force eleven

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=174&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

Pity it's November really....and CFS...;)

jaffusmax

A Cold Start To December?

patneve2

Very pleased with the GFS ensembles for Dublin .. yes, upper temperatures aren't spectacular, but the precipitation spike coincides with the arrival of the coldest air, something that is quite rare in these parts. There should be very good contrasts with at least a few decent showers. Even better precipitation prospects for the North and North West.

DOCARCH

patneve2 wrote: »

Very pleased with the GFS ensembles for Dublin .. yes, upper temperatures aren't spectacular, but the precipitation spike coincides with the arrival of the coldest air, something that is quite rare in these parts. There should be very good contrasts with at least a few decent showers. Even better precipitation prospects for the North and North West.

Yum yum! Can't get excited about this yet...waiting (hopefully) for a ramp by Evelyn after the 9pm news tonight!!!

Spring Onion

duplicate

Spring Onion

leahyl wrote: »

Any way you could do that Maq?

Yes but only if you agree to become part of Great Britain.

icesnowfrost

Another good forecast from simon keeling. He reckons the cold will stay with us for up to 3 weeks.

I'm trying not to get to excited. I wonder how Gerry shleet murphy is getting on

jaffusmax

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Another good forecast from simon keeling. He reckons the cold will stay with us for up to 3 weeks.

I'm trying not to get to excited. I wonder how Gerry shleet murphy is getting on

Thats a tad longer than MT's

otherfrog

The Daily Express was right - we... we didn't listen!

dopolahpec

12z GFS is disturbing viewing for those thinking this could lead to GH high etc. Even Tuesday's cold uppers are starting to look threatened as the setup is a lot flatter than before.


Next

maquiladora

Big change on the 12Z GFS. The high ends up extending over us instead of heading north.

dopolahpec

maquiladora wrote: »

Big change on the 12Z GFS. The high ends up extending over us instead of heading north.

Nice pleasant weather all the same.

jaffusmax

dopolahpec wrote: »

Nice pleasant weather all the same.

Exactly once its dry I am happy!

relaxed

maquiladora wrote: »

Big change on the 12Z GFS. The high ends up extending over us instead of heading north.

What does this mean? Cold crisp days and nights ahead?

Cogsy88

relaxed wrote: »

What does this mean? Cold crisp days and nights ahead?

Boring weather ahead.

Slashermcguirk

Anybody else noticed the sky has turned purple! Random