WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

derekon

dopolahpec wrote: »

ECM 12Z a huge improvement over the ECM 0z. What was looking like a cold 'snap' is quickly evolving into something verrrrry innnnnterrrrrressssting

I would agree, a major upgrade for cold lovers on the 12z ECM just released. Basically -8oC upper temperatures over Ireland for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Even after that, although less cold, there is no raging Atlantic powering back in

However personally speaking , I don't think Leinster will see much snow from this but that is fine, its only mid November.

D

snowstorm445

The 12z ECM is much better than the 0z, but the uppers aren't cold enough for snow. If the pattern maintains itself for an extended period then we may see cold uppers flooding back over Ireland. But that's still a long way away.

jaffusmax

snowstorm445 wrote: »

The 12z ECM is much better than the 0z, but the uppers aren't cold enough for snow. If the pattern maintains itself for an extended period then we may see cold uppers flooding back over Ireland. But that's still a long way away.

My trusted weather source Mr Keeling see heights to the North to continue to dominate well into December, how the pieces fall is yet to unfold!

Tabnabs

derekon wrote: »

However personally speaking , I don't think Leinster will see much snow from this but that is fine, its only mid November.

Oneiric 3

derekon wrote: »

Even after that, although less cold, there is no raging Atlantic powering back in

D

Back in? It has been a very long time since we have actually seen a raging Atlantic.

derekon

jaffusmax wrote: »

My trusted weather source Mr Keeling see heights to the North to continue to dominate well into December, how the pieces fall is yet to unfold!

He is pretty good that Simon lad - he thinks the first half of December will be cold, the second half mild. And he also says that he is getting signals (from the dead? ), that both January and February should be fine, i.e. mild. This of course would be at odds with MT, who thinks the first half of January will be cold with a chance of snow.

Oh what to believe, I think at this stage you could do worse than look into a cup of tea leaves to predict what will happen

D

Harps

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Back in? It has been a very long time since we have actually seen a raging Atlantic.

True, apart from the last few weeks the Atlantic has been almost totally absent for the best part of a year now, think it was around mid February that the calm, dry, high pressure dominated weather took hold and its held through for most of the year


Looking at next week, if it was January or February we'd be looking at a severe cold spell from those charts, not so much this early in the season but interesting none the less and those sort of setups tend to have a reload at some stage so plenty of potential there. ECMWF at 192h onwards would lead to a major blizzard here in England later in the season and even now its looking bitterly cold for the coming week.

I've grown tired of all the cold weather over the past few winters and the prolonged winter/spring this year so I'm nowhere near as enthusiastic as I was a few years ago but I'd never say no to some interesting weather!

derekon

Harps wrote: »

True, apart from the last few weeks the Atlantic has been almost totally absent for the best part of a year now, think it was around mid February that the calm, dry, high pressure dominated weather took hold and its held through for most of the year


Looking at next week, if it was January or February we'd be looking at a severe cold spell from those charts, not so much this early in the season but interesting none the less and those sort of setups tend to have a reload at some stage so plenty of potential there. ECMWF at 192h onwards would lead to a major blizzard here in England later in the season and even now its looking bitterly cold for the coming week.

I've grown tired of all the cold weather over the past few winters and the prolonged winter/spring this year so I'm nowhere near as enthusiastic as I was a few years ago but I'd never say no to some interesting weather!

Blasphemy, be done with ya !

D

Oneiric 3

Harps wrote: »

I'd never say no to some interesting weather!

Nor I. I just hope some of us get to see some nice beefy showers in this forecast stream but I fear a lot of sunny, cold weather ahead (as per last winter, the one before etc). A lot of folks plearsure, I'm sure, but I personally would prefer something just a little bit more 'kick ass'!

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Nor I. I just hope some of us get to see some nice beefy showers in this forecast stream but I fear a lot of sunny, cold weather ahead (as per last winter, the one before etc). A lot of folks plearsure, I'm sure, but I personally would prefer something just a little bit more 'kick ass'!

I hope we don't see a return of the dreaded schnizzlefests!

finnbob123

check this out for a forecast
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=michaelfish;sess=

finnbob123

also nice charts for the snow lovers
uksnowrisk.png
:rolleyes:

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Nor I. I just hope some of us get to see some nice beefy showers in this forecast stream but I fear a lot of sunny, cold weather ahead (as per last winter, the one before etc). A lot of folks plearsure, I'm sure, but I personally would prefer something just a little bit more 'kick ass'!

a poster hankering after a stormy winter, it can only be paddy1:)

maquiladora

finnbob123 wrote: »

also nice charts for the snow lovers
uksnowrisk.png
:rolleyes:

That just shows a 50-70% risk that any precipitation will fall as snow at 200-400m elevation at that time.

No point looking at those type of charts until about a day before anyway.

Saganist

Should there now be a Winter FI thread, along with this thread for discussion of more realistic outcomes in the short term?

Iancar29

Game on for the northwest , 2-4inches can be expected from this ! ........... :rolleyes:




and who knows what that red symbol means?

Lumi

Iancar29 wrote: »

and who knows what that red symbol means?

Thundersnow!!

maquiladora

120 FAX chart showing a trough moving down over Ireland. Something to keep an eye on maybe.

Iancar29

SSTs roughly around 11C .... 850 air passing over on Wednesday roughly -8 c


19 C temp difference ... ... ... ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77JiSoEr4cI

Smidge

Iancar29 wrote: »

SSTs roughly around 11C .... 850 air passing over on Wednesday roughly -8 c


19 C temp difference ... ... ... ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77JiSoEr4cI

Where was that taken?
Hell of a bang :eek:

Iancar29

Smidge wrote: »

Where was that taken?
Hell of a bang :eek:

Dublin 2010 thundersnow event... cant seem to find the main one before the snow started... im sure someone else can , has THUNDER as the song.. lol


Polar low on the Gfs p 1 ensemble????

Frank Garrett

Smidge wrote: »

Where was that taken?
Hell of a bang :eek:

Dublin on the 27th of November 2010. Same night I first experienced thundersnow.

Smidge

Frank Garrett wrote: »

Dublin on the 27th of November 2010. Same night I first experienced thundersnow.

Thanks for that, great video(I'd hadn't seen it before)

icesnowfrost

I remember in drogheda when the snow started in 2010 it came down as grouple then the next day it was lovely big flakes.

vicwatson

Lumi wrote: »

Thundersnow!!

Top of the class

Saganist

Memories

ninebeanrows

Yes if we can get some 850hPa temps of -8c over the Irish sea and an onshore wind it can only mean fun and games with the current sea temps. We could get some vigorous convection!

That is why i am a particular fan of early cold!

dopolahpec

Don't look at the 0z GFS if you are hoping the run of upgrades to continue. Pressure doesn't rise to greenland as much, step in the wrong direction and nowhere near as cold a run as yesterday's GFS runs.

GEM looks very good, as does the NAVGEM.

Waiting for ECM now.

rickdangerouss

dopolahpec wrote: »

Don't look at the 0z GFS if you are hoping the run of upgrades to continue. Pressure doesn't rise to greenland as much, step in the wrong direction and nowhere near as cold a run as yesterday's GFS runs.

GEM looks very good, as does the NAVGEM.

Waiting for ECM now.

Snowgod damm it!!!

I wake up to this. Feck it anyway, did not want snow this winter anyway.

Weathering

GFS isn't bad, it just isn't as good as the previous run however the UKMO is better so we await the ECM