Cymru Lions v Wallabies, 3rd Test Match Thread, Sat July 6, 1100am

Teferi

.ak wrote: »

Defo the most disappointing thing for me too. The BOD thing I can live with. He got two caps and sure he's lucky to considering he's held together with glue.

It's not even glue and plasters that's holding him together at this stage. Pure force of will and Irish prayers is what's keeping him together.

Swiwi.

sydthebeat wrote: »

to me the most damning issue coming into this game is the following:

Australia: 1 team change, 1 bench change = 2 changes

Lions: 7 team changes (1 positional), 3 bench changes = 10 changes


I dont see how the lions can possibly expect to have any continuity of play with such widespread changes.
Davies and Roberts havent played against the aussies together in this series.
This is the first time this back row has ever played together as a unit.

There is the culimination of 1 national captaincy in the lions squad.. as far back as 2009 at that.

Australia have a mammoth player in george smith coming back in for his swan song. He will pull his team together and demand superhuman effort from them. I cannot see any comparable player on the lions team.

With all this in my head, as much as me heart yearns for a lions victory, for POC and BOD.. i simply cannot see any way the lions can win.

IMO the most likely way for the Lions to win is to force a series of scrum & collapsed maul penalties. Not pretty, but might get the result. Won't work though if the Aussies score some tries and CL still has his kicking boots on.

Rightwing

Le vieux renard wrote: »

IMO the most likely way for the Lions to win is to force a series of scrum & collapsed maul penalties. Not pretty, but might get the result. Won't work though if the Aussies score some tries and CL still has his kicking boots on.

I'm leaning more & more towards a Lions victory. The Welsh boys will put in a massive shift, they know Gatty will come in for severe criticism if they lose.

Swiwi.

Rightwing wrote: »

I'm leaning more & more towards a Lions victory. The Welsh boys will put in a massive shift, they know Gatty will come in for severe criticism if they lose.

Well, I like your optimism. Don't see the Wallabies just rolling over, though, and they now have a reason to put in a big shift for Horwill.

As I said above, either penalties or another unfortunate run of injuries to the WBs backline seem the best hope. Of course, the Lions could give the ball some air, and give North & Bowe a chance, but that would represent a sea-change from the first 2 tests.

Rightwing

Le vieux renard wrote: »

Well, I like your optimism. Don't see the Wallabies just rolling over, though, and they now have a reason to put in a big shift for Horwill.

As I said above, either penalties or another unfortunate run of injuries to the WBs backline seem the best hope. Of course, the Lions could give the ball some air, and give North & Bowe a chance, but that would represent a sea-change from the first 2 tests.

The money is going on the Aussies, -1 @ 10/11 now, the Lions will probably drift further, it's going to make for box office viewing now regardless though!

rockbeast

Rightwing wrote: »

I'm leaning more & more towards a Lions victory. The Welsh boys will put in a massive shift, they know Gatty will come in for severe criticism if they lose.

I've half a feeling you're right!

It will mean everything I thought I knew about rugby is wrong BUT maybe Gatland is right....

I'll be supporting the Lions, BOD or not, and I may as well stick 50e I can't afford on them winning -- 4 years til I can do this again ++ imagine how tense/great it will be if Lions/Aus have a last kick to win it...

PS Aus will win and well, -12 IMO but odds on Paddy are sh!te for -13...

neilmulvey

Rightwing wrote: »

I'm leaning more & more towards a Lions victory. The Welsh boys will put in a massive shift, they know Gatty will come in for severe criticism if they lose.

can understand the logic but in reality I cant see it. I think the Aussies have far too much continuity going on which will make all the difference. Also I reckon the Aussies have just as strong a motivational tool in the Horwill stuff.

Score prediction (If Lealifano stays on the pitch) Aussies 25-15/17 Lions.

I just hope it might be an open game with some decent rugby instead of a repeat of last weeks slugfest. Wouldnt be surprised to see the Aussies charge down JD's channel to see if he has found a lock for his revolving door style of defending.

Rightwing

neilmulvey wrote: »

can understand the logic but in reality I cant see it. I think the Aussies have far too much continuity going on which will make all the difference. Also I reckon the Aussies have just as strong a motivational tool in the Horwill stuff.

Score prediction (If Lealifano stays on the pitch) Aussies 25-15/17 Lions.

I just hope it might be an open game with some decent rugby instead of a repeat of last weeks slugfest. Wouldnt be surprised to see the Aussies charge down JD's channel to see if he has found a lock for his revolving door style of defending.

Some good points there.

This is worth a listen to:

http://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/lions-tour/video-neil-francis-on-how-the-lions-will-fare-without-odriscoll-29395124.html

dave04

DGRulz wrote: »

And it all starts in November, when he becomes the coach that lead Ireland to their first win over New Zealand.

And what if he doesn't ? know what to expect on here anyway !

Swiwi.

DGRulz wrote: »

And it all starts in November, when he becomes the coach that lead Ireland to their first win over New Zealand.

I'm slightly bemused by all this Schmidt triumphalism talk. He seems a very good coach, but has not yet coached internationally. There are plenty of examples of coaches with excellent domestic records, who couldn't translate that success onto the international stage.

I wish him every success, bar 1 game in November, but I am personally withholding judgement probably until after 6N 2014. It's a big ask to take over a team and record wins against the 7th, 3rd and 1st ranked sides in the world. I certainly wouldn't be despondent if he loses all 3, although Samoa should definitely be targeted for victory.

Grimebox

Le vieux renard wrote: »

I'm slightly bemused by all this Schmidt triumphalism talk. He seems a very good coach, but has not yet coached internationally. There are plenty of examples of coaches with excellent domestic records, who couldn't translate that success onto the international stage.

I wish him every success, bar 1 game in November, but I am personally withholding judgement probably until after 6N 2014. It's a big ask to take over a team and record wins against the 7th, 3rd and 1st ranked sides in the world. I certainly wouldn't be despondent if he loses all 3, although Samoa should definitely be targeted for victory.

Frankly, I think its the beginning of the end of Schmidt after taking that job. I am a pessimist though. International Rugby is completely different to Club Rugby. He could build that Leinster squad because how often they play. I'm not sure his skills will translate well. I can't wait to be proven wrong however

Rightwing

Grimebox wrote: »

Frankly, I think its the beginning of the end of Schmidt after taking that job. I am a pessimist though. International Rugby is completely different to Club Rugby. He could build that Leinster squad because how often they play. I'm not sure his skills will translate well. I can't wait to be proven wrong however

Why do you think that? I think he will win (or he should win) a grand slam, and that will make him a success.

neilmulvey

Grimebox wrote: »

Frankly, I think its the beginning of the end of Schmidt after taking that job. I am a pessimist though. International Rugby is completely different to Club Rugby. He could build that Leinster squad because how often they play. I'm not sure his skills will translate well. I can't wait to be proven wrong however

Ireland are far better then they have shown since 2009 because of Kidneys conservatism. I reckon Schmidt is far less inhibited in how he coaches and the latitude he will give the players to perform.

I think Schmidt will do a good job. Wont be as spectacular as his Leinster reign but I dont think it will be a failure either. Not many coaches last too long internationally.

For Paws

If, as I posted last week, this tour is nothing more than a Charity run for Rugby Union in Oz, with Gatty's next coaching job application for the ABs pasted on top, then a Series win works for the game in Oz, but kinda fcuks up Gatty's prospects.

Anybody know what the word in NZ is about Gatland's standing ?

danthefan

For Paws wrote: »

If, as I posted last week, this tour is nothing more than a Charity run for Rugby Union in Oz, with Gatty's next coaching job application for the ABs pasted on top, then a Series win works for the game in Oz, but kinda fcuks up Gatty's prospects.

Anybody know what the word in NZ is about Gatland's standing ?

Don't think he'll be the next NZ coach anyway, they don't seem to hire guys from outside NZ to the top job.

As for it being a charity run, well that's not really true. It's been pencilled in since Aus were added to the roster as a tour destination and Aus rugby unfortunately just happens to be in the state it is. In fact if the tour boosts Aus rugby that will be one good outcome at least.

The Aussie

For Paws wrote: »

Anybody know what the word in NZ is about Gatland's standing ?

From what I've heard, they don't rate him or his exploits in Europe.

Swiwi.

For Paws wrote: »

If, as I posted last week, this tour is nothing more than a Charity run for Rugby Union in Oz, with Gatty's next coaching job application for the ABs pasted on top, then a Series win works for the game in Oz, but kinda fcuks up Gatty's prospects.

Anybody know what the word in NZ is about Gatland's standing ?

Jury is still out awaiting Saturday to a certain extent. To coach NZ, from memory you must have coached ITM cup or NZ SXV within the last 2 (?3) years, so he would not currently be elegible, although there are no such rules for assistant coaches. However, as stated previously, Dave Rennie (Chiefs) in particular is held in very high regard in NZ, and Vern Cotter was also offered an interview last time around.

I would say at present

1. Dave Rennie
2. Cotter/Schmidt (pending Irish & Scottish progress)
3. Gatland, Blackadder, Penney, Anscombe, Deans etc

Deans & Mitchell had a fraught relationship with the media & the NZRFU, and I'm not sure he'd be given another chance.

Swiwi.

For those who are interested, where does Kiwi support lie for the decider?

Lions - 57%

Australia - 33%

Not fussed - 10%

The Aussie

Le vieux renard wrote: »

For those who are interested, where does Kiwi support lie for the decider?

Lions - 57%

Australia - 33%

Not fussed - 10%

In fairness that is probably the percentage of Kwis who hate Australia whith a passion (akin to redneck Irish who hate the English with a passion). Some of the vile hatred I've copped is actually funny, all for being Australian :rolleyes:

Swiwi.

The Aussie wrote: »

In fairness that is probably the percentage of Kwis who hate Australia whith a passion (akin to redneck Irish who hate the English with a passion). Some of the vile hatred I've copped is actually funny, all for being Australian :rolleyes:

Yes, we can all regret our choice of username at times

NZers are very impartial to the Celtic Nations, but you won't find too many Kiwis willing on England in rugby (different for cricket, where the Aussies aren't too popular); on the other hand, some prefer the SH to win everything, so support the Aussies.

Rightwing

The Aussie wrote: »

In fairness that is probably the percentage of Kwis who hate Australia whith a passion (akin to redneck Irish who hate the English with a passion). Some of the vile hatred I've copped is actually funny, all for being Australian :rolleyes:

That's a little harsh, now there is an element of that, but mostly I think they just like to see their biggest rival lose.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

I really couldn't give a **** who wins. This series has really put me off the Lions as a concept. Hope the Irish lads go well though

The Aussie

Le vieux renard wrote: »

Yes, we can all regret our choice of username at times

Yes, I should have thought that one through a lot better to be honest, 20/20 hindsight is a gift and a curse at times :pac:

jamiedav2011

Ah yes, and Australia is such a cultural haven, without any element of 'redneckism' or hatred of other countries...

Artful_Badger

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Ah yes, and Australia is such a cultural haven, without any element of 'redneckism' or hatred of other countries...

Maybe that's why we beat them at rugby nearly half the time !

Anyway I'm pretty sure Irish rednecks have little interest in rugby.

The Aussie

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Ah yes, and Australia is such a cultural haven, without any element of 'redneckism' or hatred of other countries...

Wander over to AH and get back to us...

Artful_Badger wrote: »

Anyway I'm pretty sure Irish rednecks have little interest in rugby.

Yeh they hate Rugby as much as they do the English, while sitting in their EPL Jersey drinking Cans.

Anyway, back to Rugby....

sheeper

Just off to buy an oz jersey now ! If you ask me any irish man that plays the match should be tarred and feathered ! Gatland and his 10 man team will hopfully get hammered and the Ozzie will show them no mercy !!!!!

Come on the ozzies !!!!!!

my my my

i'm shocked the warren gatland has a cip on is shoulder gainst ireland,

Rightwing

The Lions is bigger than any 1 manager or player. I'm for them. But it looks like Quinny's article was spot on after all.

Tox56

The Aussie wrote: »

Wander over to AH and get back to us...

Which has no relevance to what he said