Preview Thread -RaboDirect Pro12 Final - RDS, 25th May, 1645 - live on RTE2/TG4/BBCNI

totallegend

Right, the Rabo final seems to be getting discussed exclusively on the leinster forum so maybe a preview thread is in order.

No need for angry rants about commentary as Gaeilge this weekend as BBCNI, RTE2 and TG4 will all be showing the match live when the top two teams from this season's league go head to head.

Weather forecast is for a dry day with not much wind, so let's hope that turns out to be the case.

Current odds from Paddy Power:
Ulster 6/4
Leinster 4/7
Draw 20/1
Handicap is four points (10/11)

It's not often that Ulster go into a "home" game with the odds against them, but then it's not often that Leinster will run out at the RDS and find the crowd split 50:50... Ulster won't have too many concerns about turning up at the RDS, having won a deserved victory there in March.

Leinster have been in better form of late and will come to this match battle-hardened from their exertions in the Amlin Cup, while Ulster will be hoping that their two week break since the semi-final clash with the Scarlets will mean they have more in the tank for the closing stages of what will surely be a very close encounter.

That defeat to Ulster on 30th March remains the only reversal suffered by Leinster in 2013 while Ulster's form seems to have recovered from the wobble that it took in February and March after their spectacular opening to the campaign. If things click for Leinster, it's hard to see Ulster being able to get a result, but Ulster will have no shortage of motivation and know how to get results.

Verdict: Leinster

Ulster
(15-9): J Payne, A Trimble, D Cave, S Olding, T Bowe, P Jackson, R Pienaar;
(1-8): T Court, R Best, J Afoa, J Muller (C), D Tuohy, R Diack, C Henry, N Williams;
Replacements (16-23): R Herring, C Black, D Fitzpatrick, I Henderson, M McComish, P Marshall, M Allen, P Nelson.


Leinster
(15-9)R Kearney, F McFadden, B O'Driscoll, I Madigan, I Nacewa, J Sexton, I Boss
(1-8)C Healy, R Strauss, M Ross, L Cullen, D Toner, K McLaughlin, S Jennings, J Heaslip
Replacements (16-23): S Cronin, J McGrath, J Hagan, Q Roux, R Ruddock, J Cooney, A Goodman, A Conway

Worldwide broadcast info from Leinster website:

UK & Ireland - Live on RTE2, BBC Northern Ireland, BBC Alba and BBC Wales from 4.45pm Saturday
Italy - Live on SportItalia from 5.45pm CET Saturday
Middle East - Live on OSN Sports 4 from 6.45pm KSA Saturday
Australia - Live on Setanta Australia from 1.45am ET Sunday
Africa - Live on Setanta Africa from 5.45pm CAT Saturday
Canada - Live on Sportsnet World from 12.45pm Saturday
New Zealand - Delayed on The Rugby Channel from 4.30am Sunday
USA - Delayed on Fox Soccer Plus from 12 Noon ET Saturday
USA - Live on Fox Soccer 2 Go from 11.45am ET Saturday
Radio - Live on RTE Radio 1 and Newstalk FM (On air, on line and via smartphone app)

The OLSC bases in London (Porterhouse Covent Garden), Birmingham (Oh Velvet), Dubai (McGettigans) and Sydney (The Gaelic Club) are all showing the game LIVE.

Delayed screenings will take place at the above times in New York (Madhatter Saloon) and Christchurch (Monza Sports Bar).

CIARAN_BOYLE

totallegend wrote: »

Ulster's main concern is John Afoa who is struggling to be fit in time, although coach Mark Anscombe was in positive mood yesterday. If Afoa misses out, Declan Fitzpatrick will take his place with impressive youngster Ricky Lutton on the bench.

27??

thomond2006

Leinster to lay their Rabo final hoodoo to rest?

Can't wait for this, if it's anything like last year's Pro12 final then we're in for a treat.

I'd edge towards Ulster for this if Afoa is fit. The week off will have benefited them.

totallegend

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

27??

Is he? Right, I'll correct that so.

ulster_Beef

Ive been waiting since last year for this thread to open ha

Poll?

19543261

This will be good.

totallegend

ulster_Beef wrote: »

Poll?

Good man, done.

vienne86

The motivation to win is huge for both teams - Ulster feel they owe Leinster for their loss last year in Twickenham, and Leinster will want this badly to give Joe, Johnny and Isa a good send off......and also, no one wants this final to get away like last year did. This should be a brilliant afternoon.....let's hope for some decent weather.

jamiedav2011

Indo today says Afoa trained yesterday but went off limping on the afternoon, while Callum Black is also a doubt ('heavily strapped knee')

awec

I am nervous.

Tox56

Leinster to lay their Rabo final hoodoo to rest?

Mocker gods will not approve of this poll, need to balance it out a bit I think

molloyjh

When we consider that not only were we missing BOD, Sexton & McFadden last time out, but we also lost Darce last minute and Macken after about 30 mins plus Cullen was on the bench and yet we were still incredibly close to nicking it at the death I'd be hopeful that a near full strength Leinster side that includes BOD, Sexton, McFadden and Cullen from the start can do the business. Assuming of course they all stay on the field.

Given a possible starting team of:

Healy (30 mins last week)
Strauss (20 mins last week)
Ross (60 mins last week)
Cullen (20 mins last week)
Toner (80 mins last week) or Roux (60 mins last week)
McLaughlin (rested last week)
Jennings (20 mins last week)
Heaslip (80 mins last week)

Boss (80 mins last week)
Sexton (80 mins last week)
Nacewa (80 mins last week)
Madigan (80 mins last week) or Goodman (15 mins last week)
BOD (rested last week - injured)
McFadden (70 mins last week) or Conway (80 mins last week) or D Kearney (1 min last week)
R Kearney (80 mins last week)

The rotation in the squad means that our pack should be reasonably fresh, especially considering the 8 day turn around as well. In fact the only player I'd be concerned about in that XV is Boss. Most of the backs have been rested to some degree or other over the past few months so very few players have had long runs of game time. I don't think the extra week that Ulster have will be a massive factor.

What will be is the fact that they are hitting form again and they have Bowe back in the side. Muller has a few games under his belt after returning from injury too. There's no doubt that both sides will be in a better position this weekend than they were in March.

I'm really nervous and excited about this one. It could be a really good clash between two good sides and will be far, far tighter than the HEC final last year. Either side can win it and both have plenty of motivation to drive them on that extra yard. I'd love to see Leinster send the lads off on a high and I would absolutely hate to see us lose another Pro12 final in the RDS. At the same time I couldn't begrudge Ulster the win either given the season they've had.

The sooner kick-off comes the better, because I know the nerves will only get worse as the week goes on. Joes rotation in the pack last week could be the turning point of the contest, and I'm desperately hoping it gives us an edge in controlling the speed of the game.

irishbucsfan

Whose going to take a guess at final Joe Schmidt curveball selection?! Will it be Cronin at hooker? Ruddock at 6? Mike Ross at 10? Surely he won't just pick 15 expected players? This is his last chance!

CIARAN_BOYLE

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Whose going to take a guess at final Joe Schmidt curveball selection?! Will it be Cronin at hooker? Ruddock at 6? Mike Ross at 10? Surely he won't just pick 15 expected players? This is his last chance!

Cooney at 9? Madigan at 10? McFadden at 12? Adam Byrne at 14:eek:?

decisions

Healy at 8 to counter The Incredible Hulk, Heaslip to 7 and a fit SOB at 12?

.ak

Dying for this game. Gonna be a cracker.

awec

Had to turn down a ticket to this cause of a poxy birthday party.

Madness Ted.

ulster_Beef

awec wrote: »

Had to turn down a ticket to this cause of a poxy birthday party.

Madness Ted.

]

Im away on holiday ffs. Ive missed a few big games because of such reasons

.ak

ulster_Beef wrote: »

]

Im away on holiday ffs. Ive missed a few big games because of such reasons

Haha. We initially had a holiday planned to start this weekend, but told the missus it had to be a week later, just incase we made it to the final. Thank feck.

MolBee

For all the backs Leinster were missing that day, they were beaten up front in the game at Ravenhill... Afoa was a big part of that, and I don't think our scrum is as much of a weapon without him unfortunately. And that's not even mentioning what's lost around the park (silky hands and side step...!).

Looking on the bright side, Deccie Fitz may be made of chocolate but he's a very capable scrummager when he's not watching Ulster from his living room, melting in front of the fire. So maybe just maybe we can gain the edge in that area again.

Although tight in the end, in the RDS a couple of months ago, Leinster weren't able to penetrate Ulster's defense at all. I expect Joe to have a few tricks up his sleeve however, and I do think Leinster are a totally different prospect in attack with Sexton and BOD in tow. Sexton particularly. He brings his backs into play and controls the game like few other outhalves in the world can. As much as I rate Madigan I would far rather he was the starting 10.

If both teams are on top form I don't think there's too much between them. If Ulster can cut out the handling errors that seems to plague them when there's pressure, and keep their discipline in check, I think they can edge it. This team have yet to prove they have that self-belief and cup winning mentality that Leinster have in spades, hopefully they can prove it on Saturday.

SUFTUM!

irishbucsfan

MolBee wrote: »

Deccie Fitz may be made of chocolate

MolBee

Try and eat at your peril, though...

molloyjh

MolBee wrote: »

For all the backs Leinster were missing that day, they were beaten up front in the game at Ravenhill... Afoa was a big part of that, and I don't think our scrum is as much of a weapon without him unfortunately. And that's not even mentioning what's lost around the park (silky hands and side step...!).

Looking on the bright side, Deccie Fitz may be made of chocolate but he's a very capable scrummager when he's not watching Ulster from his living room, melting in front of the fire. So maybe just maybe we can gain the edge in that area again.

Although tight in the end, in the RDS a couple of months ago, Leinster weren't able to penetrate Ulster's defense at all. I expect Joe to have a few tricks up his sleeve however, and I do think Leinster are a totally different prospect in attack with Sexton and BOD in tow. Sexton particularly. He brings his backs into play and controls the game like few other outhalves in the world can. As much as I rate Madigan I would far rather he was the starting 10.

Some good points there all right. But bear in mind that in Ravenhill Leinster started Bent in the front row and SOB was only just back from injury. Cronin was on for the full 80 because Strauss was injured. On the bench Hagan hadn't reached the form he is in now and Denton was second row cover. I'd expect to see a front row of Healy, Strauss & Ross which is undoubtedly stronger than Healy, Cronin & Bent. Having McGrath, Cronin & Hagan to spring from the bench is positive too. We should have Cullen, Toner & Roux as 2nd row options instead of Cullen, Toner & Denton. And in the back row while we'll be missing SOB, Jennings has been in great form. Our pack will be stronger this weekend, while the loss of Afoa could hurt Ulster a lot. Was the game in March Mullers first game back from injury?

In March we very, very nearly won it at the end despite Darce pulling out at the last minute and missing BOD, Sexton and McFadden. If those 3 return this weekend our back line will significantly better too. We'll also have genuine options on the bench which we didn't have at 12 in particular last time out (Reid was outside back along with Conway). So our back line should be stronger than it was in either of the regular season games.

The more I think about this game the more I think it's going to be a cracker.

MolBee

You're right, it was Bent, I thought Ross was playing in that match. Puts a different perspective on it certainly.

The inexperienced makeshift centre partnership at the RDS was shown up against a solid defense, Leinster will be stronger in attack this time around, of that I have no doubt.

On the bench, it's advantage to Leinster, given Gilroy is still injured, and Marshall is out too. If Afoa and Callum Black are out then there may well be quite a gulf in class between the two benches. I really hope this isn't the difference.

It was Muller's second game back in March I believe, but I think it was Henrys, Pienaars, and Williams' first game back. Looked far more obvious the week after against Sarries, but Ulster just didn't perform in that match.

Both teams have the ability to beat eachother and more than enough incentive to win, the atmosphere will be amazing too. Can't wait.

justsomebloke

Slightly off topic but this is also on BBC alba and BBC wales which I think is an improvement on last year where Scottish TV didn't even carry it

19543261

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Whose going to take a guess at final Joe Schmidt curveball selection?! Will it be Cronin at hooker? Ruddock at 6? Mike Ross at 10? Surely he won't just pick 15 expected players? This is his last chance!

You are way off in your guesstimations there, bucs.

Joe Curveball Schmidt will step up and return to his key position in the team all along to see himself off: controlling the reigns and busting balls from

scrumhalf.

Grimebox

Would obviously love Leinster to win this but I wouldn't be that heart broken if Ulster took it away. They really deserve some silverware at this stage. I think it might be a cagey affair with few tries scored. It seems to always happen at the big irish derby's

Hippo

Grimebox wrote: »

Would obviously love Leinster to win this but I wouldn't be that heart broken if Ulster took it away. They really deserve some silverware at this stage. I think it might be a cagey affair with few tries scored. It seems to always happen at the big irish derby's

I will be heartbroken if Ulster win it! That would be way too many Rabo/Magners finals thrown away. This will be tough to watch.

andrewdcs

Hippo wrote: »

I will be heartbroken if Ulster win it! That would be way too many Rabo/Magners finals thrown away. This will be tough to watch.

We'd become the Clermont Auvergne of the Rabo! :rolleyes:

andrewdcs

justsomebloke wrote: »

Slightly off topic but this is also on BBC alba and BBC wales which I think is an improvement on last year where Scottish TV didn't even carry it

Hurrah, I only get RTE / Irish channels of the web (no terrestrial TV signal) and freesat, which in fairness works just fine for me.

This will (im sure) be a Sky exclusive next year.

sixy

Leinster to lay their Rabo final hoodoo to rest?

Taking a few days off work and coming home with Saturday in dub for the game, can't wait! Going to be a tight game I think. Should be a cracking atmosphere anyway. It's going to be a 'home' win!

siochain

Lads going to be in Belfast for the weekend can anyone recommend a good pub to watch the match?
Cheers

totallegend

andrewdcs wrote: »

Hurrah, I only get RTE / Irish channels of the web (no terrestrial TV signal) and freesat, which in fairness works just fine for me.

This will (im sure) be a Sky exclusive next year.

Sky deal only begins season after next.

sixy

Leinster to lay their Rabo final hoodoo to rest?

siochain wrote: »

Lads going to be in Belfast for the weekend can anyone recommend a good pub to watch the match?
Cheers

The bot on the Malone road should be good craic mate

bilston

Leinster to lay their Rabo final hoodoo to rest?

We really need Afoa to be fit. I expect he will start unless it's really bad but how fit will he be?
Anyway assuming two full strength front rows there's not much in it. Healy is better than Court but Afoa is better than Ross and Best and Strauss are much of a muchness.

Second row may just be advantage Ulster, however Leinster have a slight edge in the back row.

Half backs cancel each other out, Ulster have a big advantage at 9 and Leinster have a big up at 10.

Olding v Madigan could be a really interesting side dish on the evening, however BOD over Cave gives Leinster advantages in the centres.

I do think the back three is the one area where we have a clear advantage so Im sure Leinster will be wary of that.

You know I have a feeling that with the changes iminent at Leinster and Munster rebuilding that next season Ulster might edge ahead as Irelands top province (the proof will be in the pudding), however we aren't there yet. This is the last games for the two JS's and IN and despite it being a neutral ground there is little doubt that Leinster will feel more at home than Ulster will. On the flip side will Ulster have a bit more gas in the tank in their last 10 mins, if it is tight then maybe that will help Ulster, but then Leinster weren't tested too much last week so it may not be an issue. I'm hopeful Ulster can do it but Im not expectant, if I was neutral Id back Leinster by about 6 points, but as an Ulsterman Im not going to go against my boys.

Ulster by 4.

Grimebox

bilston wrote: »

We really need Afoa to be fit. I expect he will start unless it's really bad but how fit will he be?
Anyway assuming two full strength front rows there's not much in it. Healy is better than Court but Afoa is better than Ross and Best and Strauss are much of a muchness.

Second row may just be advantage Ulster, however Leinster have a slight edge in the back row.

Half backs cancel each other out, Ulster have a big advantage at 9 and Leinster have a big up at 10.

Olding v Madigan could be a really interesting side dish on the evening, however BOD over Cave gives Leinster advantages in the centres.

I do think the back three is the one area where we have a clear advantage so Im sure Leinster will be wary of that.

You know I have a feeling that with the changes iminent at Leinster and Munster rebuilding that next season Ulster might edge ahead as Irelands top province (the proof will be in the pudding), however we aren't there yet. This is the last games for the two JS's and IN and despite it being a neutral ground there is little doubt that Leinster will feel more at home than Ulster will. On the flip side will Ulster have a bit more gas in the tank in their last 10 mins, if it is tight then maybe that will help Ulster, but then Leinster weren't tested too much last week so it may not be an issue. I'm hopeful Ulster can do it but Im not expectant, if I was neutral Id back Leinster by about 6 points, but as an Ulsterman Im not going to go against my boys.

Ulster by 4.

I don't know about that. Kearney/Payne, Isa/Bowe, McFadden/Trimble. They're all pretty even at the moment

bilston

Leinster to lay their Rabo final hoodoo to rest?

Grimebox wrote: »

I don't know about that. Kearney/Payne, Isa/Bowe, McFadden/Trimble. They're all pretty even at the moment

We'll agree to disagree then

opinionatedfan

Leinster to lay their Rabo final hoodoo to rest?

don't think their is a clear advantage in the back three for Ulster, maybe a slight one.

decisions

Grimebox wrote: »

I don't know about that. Kearney/Payne, Isa/Bowe, McFadden/Trimble. They're all pretty even at the moment

Kearney v Payne is a close one with Kearney coming back to form, I think Bowe looks more dangerous than Isa and Trimble has looked very sharp all season but the same can be said for Ferg. I'd call the back 3 advantage Ulster, but only just.

CIARAN_BOYLE

decisions wrote: »

Kearney v Payne is a close one with Kearney coming back to form, I think Bowe looks more dangerous than Isa and Trimble has looked very sharp all season but the same can be said for Ferg. I'd call the back 3 advantage Ulster, but only just.

isn't ferg doubtful? Trimble Conway is advantage Ulster

decisions

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

isn't ferg doubtful? Trimble Conway is advantage Ulster

Is he? We could really do with him.

Edit: just remembered the neck thing, nevermind.

sydthebeat

any clear advantage ulster have is in second row in my opinion. assuming toner and leo start, id be afraid of being a bit "beaten up" by the mass of tuohy and muller

Quint2010

thomond2006 wrote: »

Can't wait for this, if it's anything like last year's Pro12 final then we're in for a treat.

I'd edge towards Ulster for this if Afoa is fit. The week off will have benefited them.

They had a couple of weeks off before the HC final last year too while Leinster went in battle hardened and look what happened...

Tox56

Leinster to lay their Rabo final hoodoo to rest?

Yeah I'd be more worried about the 2nd row than the back 3, Isa has been in ridiculous form since he announced retirement

bilston

Leinster to lay their Rabo final hoodoo to rest?

Tox56 wrote: »

Yeah I'd be more worried about the 2nd row than the back 3, Isa has been in ridiculous form since he announced retirement

Worry about both...:D

Mocker Gods don't fear me

bilston

Leinster to lay their Rabo final hoodoo to rest?

So for what it's worth IMO

Front Row - Even
Second Row - Ulster
Back Row - Leinster
Half Backs - Even
Midfield - Leinster
Back Three - Ulster
Bench - Leinster

Bench might be the difference then, however maybe that just evens up the fact that Ulster will be a tad more rested.

Utah_Saint

bilston wrote: »

So for what it's worth IMO

Front Row - Even
Second Row - Ulster
Back Row - Leinster
Half Backs - Even
Midfield - Leinster
Back Three - Ulster
Bench - Leinster

Bench might be the difference then, however maybe that just evens up the fact that Ulster will be a tad more rested.

With O'Brien out do Leinster have an advantage in back row?

If I can peel off my Ulster tinted spectacles for a moment I would call it very close there.

..but i suppose overall your assessment is fair

bilston

Leinster to lay their Rabo final hoodoo to rest?

Utah_Saint wrote: »

With O'Brien out do Leinster have an advantage in back row?

If I can peel off my Ulster tinted spectacles for a moment I would call it very close there.

..but i suppose overall your assessment is fair

Yeah I said on another thread that SOB makes a big difference. He always plays well against Ulster too. I suppose I hadn't really considered that he would be unavailable when I was making that previous post. We'll see.

Utah_Saint

bilston wrote: »

Yeah I said on another thread that SOB makes a big difference. He always plays well against Ulster too. I suppose I hadn't really considered that he would be unavailable when I was making that previous post. We'll see.

I'm looking forward to seeing the two different styles of No.8 clashing. Heaslip V Williams - its gonna be epic!

pc7

I am seriously nervous about this one, I still remember the look of pain and disbelief in the Terrace last year looking around me, I don't want a repeat of that.
I think mentally Ulster don't have that killer instinct just yet to close out a final/test game like this and I'm hoping that Leinster will be so fired up with it being the monkey on our back, Isa, Johnny, Joe et al last game that we can do this. But seriously sick with nerves over it. Should be a cracking day the RDS will be rocking.

bilston

Leinster to lay their Rabo final hoodoo to rest?

pc7 wrote: »

I am seriously nervous about this one, I still remember the look of pain and disbelief in the Terrace last year looking around me, I don't want a repeat of that.
I think mentally Ulster don't have that killer instinct just yet to close out a final/test game like this and I'm hoping that Leinster will be so fired up with it being the monkey on our back, Isa, Johnny, Joe et al last game that we can do this. But seriously sick with nerves over it. Should be a cracking day the RDS will be rocking.

Weather set fair as well, that will suit both sides and should make for a cracking contest.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2964574?day=2

The atmosphere should be brillant. Leinster fans can correct me but I imagine the RDS will have seen nothing like it before given the 50/50 mix of fans.