Dublin Airport New Runway/Infrastructure.

Peregrine

Their passenger numbers forecasts use Irish GDP growth forecasts by the IMF and assumes passenger number growth will be 1.15 times greater than GDP growth.

Jamie2k9

Idbatterim wrote: »

the figure of 3% is total BS! The May figures and year to date ones will be announced shortly, I think it is running at close to 10% growth so far this year... ok so according to the below, it was 7% up to and including April, this was before a few new route launches etc, will be interesting to see May figures...

http://www.dublinairport.com/gns/at-the-airport/latest-news/14-05-09/1_8_Million_Passengers_In_April_At_Dublin_Airport.aspx

Almost 5.9 million passengers have travelled through Dublin Airport in the first four months of this year, a 7% increase over the same period last year.

I think 2014 has being under estimated however they will be revised in September before the final charges are decided however a 2020 start for runway won't change at all IMO we are not going to see the growth rate of mid 2000's it will be back at early 2000 levels which was between 3 and 5% pa.

I don't see the issue for the second runway as there is lots of capacity available from 28 and as we can see the IAA are increasing it in 3 phases.

Idbatterim

passenger traffic up 7% in May and 7% on 2013 this year to date...

http://www.dublinairport.com/gns/at-the-airport/latest-news/14-06-09/Dublin_Airport_Welcomed_Almost_2M_Passengers_In_May.aspx

jamo2oo9

How many new routes are being launched in Dublin this year? I know Westjet is starting TA flights from St. Johns in two weeks and Ryanair launched a few routes earlier in the year due to the abolishment of the Air Passenger Tax. Have we got any more routes to be launched, particularly in the Middle-East as in increased frequencies?

LXFlyer

Well Emirates are adding a second daily flight to/from Dubai from September, and Etihad are expanding to two daily flights to/from Abu Dhabi from July (currently one is six days a week and the second is four).

jamo2oo9

lxflyer wrote: »

Well Emirates are adding a second flight to/from Dubai from July.

I thought they did that last year no?

EDIT: Turns out they didn't. I don't know why I thought it had already happened last year..

http://www.routesonline.com/news/29/breaking-news/236712/etihad-follows-emirates-in-boosting-dublin-frequency/

Both Emirates and Etihad are increasing their frequencies to Dubai and Abu Dhabi to two flights daily from Dublin

LXFlyer

jamo2oo9 wrote: »

I thought they did that last year no?

No - you're thinking of Etihad and even that wasn't every day.


It's actually September that Emirates are starting - I've edited my post above.

Idbatterim

2.1 million passengers in June, up 7% year on year...

http://www.dublinairport.com/gns/at-the-airport/latest-news/14-07-04/Over_2_1_Million_Passengers_At_Dublin_Airport_In_June.aspx

LoonyLovegood

With the figures so far, there's a big possibility that it'll hit 20m this year, there's still the two busiest holiday months to go.

CTYIgirl

CTYIgirl wrote: »

With the figures so far, there's a big possibility that it'll hit 20m this year, there's still the two busiest holiday months to go.

It did that last year 20,100,000

This year will be a bumper year. BA adding city 10 extra flights per day mon-fri and Flybe adding 8 plus Inverness. 5% = 1,000,000 7%=1,400,000 or 21,100,000 or 21.5 million +.

Peregrine

And UAE flights are going from 17 return flights a week to 28. I think that's 1 777 and 10 A330s more per week. Granted, it's only starting July and September.

Jamie2k9

Nimr wrote: »

And UAE flights are going from 17 return flights a week to 28. I think that's 1 777 and 10 A330s more per week. Granted, it's only starting July and September.

Filling them is a different story, we know EY were just following EK with the extra few flights.

jamo2oo9

I wouldn't be holding my breath for the pax numbers this year but rather next year when these routes are flown for the full year. It'll be on the rise this year indeed but how much will it rise next year when the airlines are flying the new routes/expansions for a full year. Most of the new routes this year were introduced from April onwards. We're missing out 3 months and they could mean a lot when it comes to PAX numbers.

Jamie2k9

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Filling them is a different story, we know EY were just following EK with the extra few flights.

Even if both achieve 50% or 75% load factor that's a significant number of pax.

Jamie2k9

Deleted User wrote: »

Even if both achieve 50% or 75% load factor that's a significant number of pax.

I think Emirates will see some growth EY won't.

EY added a B777 around May 2013 and for the whole of 2013 they could of carried the same amount of passengers + around 20,000 more by not changing from their 10 weekly A330. Now they are going to add a further 4 weekly A330 service and as 2013 capacity growth had zero effect on their market, I don't see much change in 2014. BTW I have not being following 2014 numbers but expect its steady growth however the extra capacity is not needed. They are only doing to to keep up with EK.

jamroll12

What I don't really understand is why Ryanair seem to reject it so strongly? DAA says that they'll need 25 million passengers going through Dublin before it would be feasible to build it, I assumed that 25 million passengers would give them enough money per annum to build the runway, so they wouldn't need to bring in extra charges for passengers to fund it?

LoonyLovegood

It's probably because during the boom the DAA said that it'd only need 23.5m passengers. Considering how much the cost of building has declined, the increase in passenger numbers requirement makes no sense.

markpb

jamroll12 wrote: »

What I don't really understand is why Ryanair seem to reject it so strongly? DAA says that they'll need 25 million passengers going through Dublin before it would be feasible to build it, I assumed that 25 million passengers would give them enough money per annum to build the runway, so they wouldn't need to bring in extra charges for passengers to fund it?

Ryanair would issue a press release about the opening of an envelope if they thought it would give them some free publicity.

Secondly, no matter how many passengers go through the airport, any capital projects will be paid for by the passengers in charges passed on by the airlines so it's in Ryanairs interests to keep those charges as low as possible. No capital projects should (in theory) mean lower handling charges for Ryanair.

notharrypotter

Considering how much the cost of building has declined, the increase in passenger numbers requirement makes no sense.

Greater efficiency in operations mean that current infrastructure can cater for more than initially envisaged.

Hence the CAR sees the revised figure as more cost effective.

What I don't really understand is why Ryanair seem to reject it so strongly

No capital projects should (in theory) mean lower handling charges for Ryanair.

I agree Ryanair's operations do not envisage the need so they simply don't want to pay what they would perceive as a subsidy to another operator.
.

Idbatterim

2.3 million passengers in July, 6% increase year on year in July, 7% year to date v 2013...

http://www.dublinairport.com/gns/at-the-airport/latest-news/14-08-07/Over_2_3_Million_Passengers_In_July_At_Dublin_Airport.aspx

if the 7% growth continues, looking at about 21.6 million this year.

Idbatterim

Idbatterim wrote: »

2.3 million passengers in July, 6% increase year on year in July, 7% year to date v 2013...

http://www.dublinairport.com/gns/at-the-airport/latest-news/14-08-07/Over_2_3_Million_Passengers_In_July_At_Dublin_Airport.aspx

if the 7% growth continues, looking at about 21.6 million this year.

The rate the growth of transfers and US traffic is growing the end of 2015 could see 23m and the trigger for the parallel will be hit by end of 2017 if growth continues.

But I foresee a shift in the problem from the runway to wide body stands by the summer next year. As a result there will be an issue with narrow body stands as every wide body at T2 takes up two narrow. As has happened recently to Americans Chicago flight it got delayed 3hrs out of the US and then lost it's stand here and got delayed another hour at least waiting for a another wide body stand.

kub

What is it about this God forsaken country and forward planning?

Idbatterim

We either have hopeless idiots on serious money who are beyond incompetent or they have discovered there is far more money in getting it wrong and constantly righting it...

You'll either get told you are wasting money or told you are being over optimistic about traffic growth.

L1011

Deleted User wrote: »

You'll either get told you are wasting money or told you are being over optimistic about traffic growth.

And be denounced repeatedly by Michael O'Leary, who at least half the country seem convinced is the arbiter of all truth in the world.

Tenger

kub wrote: »

What is it about this God forsaken country and forward planning?

Ah yes, the infamous statements about T2 being "un-needed for the country" and "too large"

MYOB

MYOB wrote: »

And be denounced repeatedly by Michael O'Leary, who at least half the country seem convinced is the arbiter of all truth in the world.

The cries of "put him in charge of the HSE he'll sort it out", yes the HSE where you would pay for oxygen and have to put in 50c to charge the paddles before they use them on you !

steve-o

Tenger wrote: »

Ah yes, the infamous statements about T2 being "un-needed for the country" and "too large"

In fairness, there were plenty of others saying that it was being built in the wrong place with almost no room for expansion, and destroyed a fairly new and expensive pier (6 gates?) in the process. Proof that Aer Rianta / DAA have never been good on future vision.

chrysagon

last time i was in T2 was 2 weeks ago, and unlike what michael o Leary said, it is needed... and we need foresight, we have planners in this country who are willing to let housing estates be built on flood plains, but reject even the mere thought of another runway for the future!

Dublinflyer

steve-o wrote: »

In fairness, there were plenty of others saying that it was being built in the wrong place with almost no room for expansion, and destroyed a fairly new and expensive pier (6 gates?) in the process. Proof that Aer Rianta / DAA have never been good on future vision.

There is a bit of room there for expansion in the check in building, the foundations are in place already, you just can't see them. The baggage handling collector belt was also built with expansion in mind and can be added onto easily and the back end can handle the capacity of the extra check in desks. There is also the land and plans for extra stands, a new pier. Now, how long it would take to build these and what would trigger the build is another thing, and the minor detail of paying for them. The stand planning this summer has been a challenge and the US pre clearance brings it's own problems, especially when delays happen. Next summer will be interesting with some of the airlines talking about more expansion.