Risk Of Severe Wintry Conditions With Strong Winds. (High Risk-Ulster, Connaught)

sully2010

Deank wrote: »

In percentage terms what is the likelihood of Kildare seeing some snow next week, particularly North Kildare?

0%, it will be the fires of hell round your way, look at your post number, you've jinxed it :P

Geomy

How will Clare do ?

ninebeanrows

Smashing ECM tonight and consistent from this morning.

Shows our northerly clinging on and then a reload from the east

We get to this by T192hrs

Deank

sully2010 wrote: »

0%, it will be the fires of hell round your way, look at your post number, you've jinxed it :P

How does post #30 jinx anything???

ElectroJazz

Deank wrote: »

How does post #30 jinx anything???

I think he was talking about your post count, that was your 666th post on boards.

pad199207

Deank wrote: »

How does post #30 jinx anything???

it was post number 666 on your profile count!

666 the year of the devil and also the number of the devil.... :cool:

Deank

pad199207 wrote: »

it was post number 666 on your profile count!

666 the year of the devil and also the number of the devil.... :cool:

Ah totally missed that well then we'll get devil snow, it'll be thunder snow with freezing fire and brimstone thrown in for good measure

lucernarian

Cold air passing over warm water is perfect for snow showers to form. Thunderstorms are a different beast however. Rising, humid air doesn't have to rise that far for clouds and showers to form. It has to reach much greater heights to form thunderstorms. There has to be atmospheric instability and here's a chart which suggests there's a reasonable chance of that happening on Tuesday morning: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6611.png

I'd look at Estofex to see if any alerts are issued for Ireland over Monday and Tuesday!

http://www.estofex.org/

maquiladora

It looks to me like a couple of hours of low level snowfall might be possible if things are on the right side of marginal, in the right places. The bigger picture looks like a wet and windy one. I'm not sure what all the excitement is about beyond that. In the longer term those ECM FI charts are just as worthless as the ECM FI charts from last month that promised the moon and stars and delivered a low level snizzlefest in the end.

Pangea

maquiladora wrote: »

It looks to me like a couple of hours of low level snowfall might be possible if things are on the right side of marginal, in the right places. The bigger picture looks like a wet and windy one. I'm not sure what all the excitement is about beyond that.

The fact that snow is on the way in places, and this month was earmarked by M.T. as potentially being 'the month'. Id say theres plenty of reasons to be excited.
Met.ie expecting it to get even colder by end of the week.

Redsunset

maquiladora wrote: »

It looks to me like a couple of hours of low level snowfall might be possible if things are on the right side of marginal, in the right places. The bigger picture looks like a wet and windy one. I'm not sure what all the excitement is about beyond that. In the longer term those ECM FI charts are just as worthless as the ECM FI charts from last month that promised the moon and stars and delivered a low level snizzlefest in the end.

Yeah wet and windy for many but as stated in OP. It's mostly higher ground Ulster and Connaught that could experience some difficult conditions.

For us it is not much of a big deal but yeah it's interesting weather that has many possibilities.

I for one would love to be in Donegal watching some thundersnow moving horizontal in very strong gusts.

IMBY I will just be pleased for those experiencing not so every day weather.

And watching the satellite for any formation of comma features or the merging of showers to form front like characteristics. I could go on. ......

M.T. Cranium

The later Monday - Tuesday event could produce squalls of hail as well as snow almost anywhere as the air mass will be violently unstable, 850 mb temps are shown on various models in the -6 to -9 C range, sea temperatures are 8-10 C, so this air mass arrives with very steep lapse rates. Expect long-fetch streamers that manage to find ways through to the east coast at times (oriented from about 280 deg with some oscillations).

Wednesday it's possible that an enhanced trough will rotate around the low (by then into the southern North Sea close to Holland-Belgium coasts) and this could renew the mixed wintry showers and push winds around to NNE for a time so possibly Irish Sea streamers heading down the Wicklow coast (heavy snow potential there would be on higher slopes probably, but there could be brief falls of heavy snow or hail closer to sea level).

The more severe cold scenario for later in the period (mainly Saturday to mid-month) looks plausible to me, but models are not locked into it yet. The GFS has switched to more agreement with the European today.

This could be a moderately big deal or a major big deal, hard to say, but I doubt it will be "nothing much" overall.

Oscar Bravo

A Yellow warning issued at 1000 by Met Eireann,i must say i like the new system....its there way of ramping!!
Weather Advisory for Ireland
Very strong W to NW winds. Low temperatures and wintry showers of hail and snow expected during Monday night, Tuesday and Wednesday. Potential for disruption aided by high Atlantic waves.

Issued:
03 February 2013 10:00

Valid:
04 February 2013 22:00 to 06 February 2013 23:59

peasant

Reading between the lines, it sounds like people living at low elevations won't be in for much lying snow but for a whole lot of horrendous weather

Gonzo

basically the last cold spell all over again except it's coming in off the atlantic rather than sourced from the UK. Hopefully this will be short-lived, still waiting in hope for the real thing to build from the East.

Red Pepper

Met Eireann farming forecast looks exciting. Looks like drier and colder next weekend so most of the snow should fall midweek. I am hoping to go hill walking next weekend so hoping Saturday will be nice and dry.

whitebriar

possibly snow on high ground according to Gerry there,so does that mean there's according to Gerry, a possibility showers could fall as rain on high ground?
That's the biggest criticism,I have with that guys forecasting during cold spells.
Its mis information to suggest high ground will see rain in some of the showers period.
If you live above 450ft in Donegal,Sligo or Mayo as a lot of people do,those showers will be snow by monday evening and certainly tuesday and wenesday.
At one stage he said possibility of snow at night...

I know there's a met only thread but the current tv forecast is relevant to this thread.

patneve2

whitebriar wrote: »

possibly snow on high ground according to Gerry there,so does that mean there's according to Gerry, a possibility showers could fall as rain on high ground?
That's the biggest criticism,I have with that guys forecasting during cold spells.
Its mis information to suggest high ground will see rain in some of the showers period.
If you live above 450ft in Donegal,Sligo or Mayo as a lot of people do,those showers will be snow by monday evening and certainly tuesday and wenesday.
At one stage he said possibility of snow at night...

I know there's a met only thread but the current tv forecast is relevant to this thread.

Maybe they are taking the mild sector into account, could push the snow line right up to 250-300 metres later on Tuesday

rc28

whitebriar wrote: »

possibly snow on high ground according to Gerry there,so does that mean there's according to Gerry, a possibility showers could fall as rain on high ground?
That's the biggest criticism,I have with that guys forecasting during cold spells.
Its mis information to suggest high ground will see rain in some of the showers period.
If you live above 450ft in Donegal,Sligo or Mayo as a lot of people do,those showers will be snow by monday evening and certainly tuesday and wenesday.
At one stage he said possibility of snow at night...

I know there's a met only thread but the current tv forecast is relevant to this thread.

He's pretty bad all right, he genuinely has an aversion to saying the word 'snow'.;)

Thank god for Evelyn and Siobhan Ryan etc.

Also, kudos to the Met for putting in place the new warning system - far easier to understand the threat posed and brings it into line with other European countries.

whitebriar

patneve2 wrote: »

Maybe they are taking the mild sector into account, could push the snow line right up to 250-300 metres later on Tuesday

Well if they were,they should have that bit of 6hr detail in the forecast but No , I think its a Gerry thing,well documented over the years on this forum.
He uses the phrase 'possibly' snow on high ground in nearly all cold spells meaning he's saying there could be rain on high ground at times when in a lot of the cold spells there won't.

I'm going to lay off my criticism of his script though as to be fair,when people see the snow,they'll say t'was forecast.
Unless of course he goes on with this kind of ridiculous stuff in say a -10 850 northeasterly streamer set up?

Pangea

MET UK Warning for the North
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&fcTime=1359806460&zoom=7&lon=-6.49&lat=54.86&regionName=ni

Issued at: 1253 on Sun 3 Feb 2013
Valid from: 1600 on Mon 4 Feb 2013
Valid to: 2359 on Mon 4 Feb 2013
Heavy, squally showers will spread to many parts of Northern Ireland and the western half of northern England during Monday, turning wintry on high ground through the middle of the day and then increasingly to lower levels during Monday evening. Showers will probably remain largely as sleet and hail along some northern and western coasts, but are likely to turn to snow inland, more certainly on ground above 100 or 200 metres elevation. 10 cm or more of snow may affect higher level routes later in the day, with drifting and temporary blizzard conditions. At lower levels, amounts of snowfall will be generally smaller and quite variable but some areas could see in excess of 5 cm of snowfall, with some drifting. Winds will gust to around 50 mph near the heavier showers but higher over hills.

The public should be aware of the potential for some disruption, especially to travel.

snaps

I think we all know by now that anything that comes off the Atlantic, will be poor. I'm not expecting much, would love a couple of snowy days, just for the kids sake.

Weathering

In my opinion less modification of the air will take place than forecast resulting in more low level snow. Tomorrow will be interesting

Pangea

snaps wrote: »

I think we all know by now that anything that comes off the Atlantic, will be poor. I'm not expecting much, would love a couple of snowy days, just for the kids sake.

Not always, the biggest snowfalls in the North and West can come in from the Atlantic.

lucernarian

Weathering wrote: »

In my opinion less modification of the air will take place than forecast resulting in more low level snow. Tomorrow will be interesting

I'm just curious, why do you think the forecasts are overestimating the heating of lower level air by the sea?

Oneiric 3

whitebriar wrote: »

I think its a Gerry thing,well documented over the years on this forum.

Only by the usual one or two usual suspects in fairness.

Farming Forecast for today:

http://www.rte.ie/player/ie/show/10107550/

I challenge anybody to say that forecast is saying anything more or less than what most of the of us on here are expecting. He mentioned snow plenty of times, mostly for high ground and maybe for lower levels by night, which going by my own experience of these set ups is pretty much on the ball. However, what is ignored is that the forecast correctly focused on the strong winds and severe wind chill, this will be the main feature over the next few days I think; ignored also is the actual shower event itself which could bring some nice thunderstorms with big hail which in my opinion is of far more of interest than any wet slushy snow that they may or not bring.

There is much more going on over the next few days than snow, but you'd swear this was the only weather type that is worth talking about and that all else is secondary. The sooner this winter season is over the better.

Pangea

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

There is much more going on over the next few days than snow, but you'd swear this was the only weather type that is worth talking about and that all else is secondary. The sooner this winter season is over the better.

Its up to people to talk about whatever interests them, no body is stopping you talking about them things, We have had the hail, lightning and winds the past week, so that is secondary to the snow for me.

Redsunset

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

The sooner this winter season is over the better.

Take a good long brake if you feel that way as this forum caters for all season enthusiasts.

Coming on here in foul humour is not the way to gain any popularity.

Lets leave it at that please.

Oneiric 3

Redsunset wrote: »

Coming on here in foul humour is not the way to gain any popularity.
.

Gaining popularity is not something I am remotely interesting in, nor am I in foul humour. but I do think wrongly accusing a forecast for not saying what people want to hear is pretty unfair.

Pangea wrote:

Its up to people to talk about whatever interests them, no body is stopping you talking about them things, We have had the hail, lightning and winds the past week, so that is secondary to the snow for me.

.

I don't disagree that we all like different things but is seems that if a forecast doesn't focus 100% on snow, then it is deemed useless. All I am saying is that there is much more going on and that snow will only constitute the smaller part over the next few days.

Redsunset

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Gaining popularity is not something I am remotely interesting in, nor am I in foul humour. but I do think wrongly accusing a forecast for not saying what people want to hear is pretty unfair.


I don't disagree that we all like different things but is seems that if a forecast doesn't focus 100% on snow, then it is deemed useless. All I am saying is that there is much more going on and that snow will only constitute the smaller part over the next few days.

Snippets from OP.

We are in for some raw weather as a strong North-westerly flow introduces some polar air to Western shores.

This has all the ingredients of thunder activity.

An interesting mix of heavy rain sleet and snow showers especially over higher ground is very likely.

---

Oh i forgot to mention hail but a wintry mix includes just that.

By the way you forgot to quote the bit in my post about
"Lets leave it at that please".