Atlantic Storm Watch: Turning Unsettled with Gales

maquiladora

Bombogenesis is when a developing storm drops 24mb within 24 hours.

Latest GFS drops the big Atlantic low 34mb in 12 hours. Amazing.

18Z GFS brings it to 923mb.

To put that into context, (apparently) only 5 extratropical Atlantic storms are known to have a pressure below 930mb in the records. The last one was in 2003 and got down to 924mb, so if this one can beat that then it will be the most intense since 1993, which was the most intense on record.

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

Bombogenesis is when a developing storm drops 24mb within 24 hours.

Latest GFS drops the big Atlantic low 34mb in 12 hours. Amazing.

18Z GFS brings it to 923mb.

To put that into context, (apparently) only 5 extratropical Atlantic storms are known to have a pressure below 930mb in the records. The last one was in 2003 and got down to 924mb, so if this one can beat that then it will be the most intense since 1993, which was the most intense on record.

More like >45mb ?

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

More like >45mb ?

I was just counting from T42 to T54.

Did you see the 12Z NAE for Friday?



Waiting for 18Z.

Harps

Yeah goes from 980hPa to 935hPa in 12 hours judging by meteociel, manages to meet the definition of a bomb in just 6 hours as well!

ninebeanrows

Latest NAE has that system much further northwest MAQ.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

I was just counting from T42 to T54.

Did you see the 12Z NAE for Friday?



Waiting for 18Z.

Is it still tracking mostly away from ireland?

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest NAE has that system much further northwest MAQ.

Yeah, its further northwest, though it does seem to be dipping southeast between 45 and 48. Worth keeping an eye on still.

eskimocat

Oh I love a good storm too. Think it must come from living on the coast growing up. Some of the storms were savage. Roofs etc gone..

This looks like a monster of a storm! At least those at sea are getting plenty warning to get the hell out of dodge!

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

Is it still tracking mostly away from ireland?

Based on the track most of the models have, Ireland isn't within range of the severe winds from the main low.

Tactical

Evlyn says it might get a bit windy next Tuesday on the current TV forecast

Harps

That storm for tomorrow night has suddenly popped up on this mornings models again, stormy day in the NW looks a certainty now but UKMO and a couple of others have it tracking right over the country so we might have a bit of a surprise yet, there seems to be a different solution on every model so hopefully an interesting day of watching ahead

maquiladora

0Z GFS takes that monster low down to 918mb in the Atlantic at 57 hours. If that came off it would be the most intense Atlantic storm in 20 years and within a few mb of the record for the lowest pressure ever recorded from a storm outside of tropical systems.



It should be out to sea during its most intense phase and those severe winds would not reach us, but some models take it near us after it reached its mature phase which could bring some windy conditions to the west, though its too early to say.



Before that though on Friday/Saturday, there is another smaller low that could bring some strong, but not severe winds. Still some uncertainty with this too.

ECM


NAE

Spindle

Harps wrote: »

That storm for tomorrow night has suddenly popped up on this mornings models again, stormy day in the NW looks a certainty now but UKMO and a couple of others have it tracking right over the country so we might have a bit of a surprise yet, there seems to be a different solution on every model so hopefully an interesting day of watching ahead

The 6h GFS does not develop this storm at all. Interesting that all the models are so different even at this close stage. Which one will be right????

dopolahpec

Spindle wrote: »

The 6h GFS does not develop this storm at all. Interesting that all the models are so different even at this close stage. Which one will be right????

Yeah it has vanished.

maquiladora

dopolahpec wrote: »

Yeah it has vanished.

It's still there, just a lot weaker. 06Z NAE has a deeper low in about the same position 12 hours later.

maquiladora

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...

.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 36N73W 1011 MB. WITHIN 300 NM S AND 480 NM
SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW 37N66W 1006 MB. WITHIN 480 NM SW QUADRANT
WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 40N53W 988 MB WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY.
WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 480 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS
18 TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE...AND 660 NM SW
QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 24 FT. ALSO N OF 31N
WITHIN 240 NM NE...600 NM SE...960 NM SW...AND 900 NM W
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 23 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW E OF AREA 53N34W 920 MB. OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 49N TO 56N E OF 38W WINDS 60 TO 80 KT. SEAS 20 TO 40
FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 780 NM SW AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS WINDS 45
TO 60 KT. SEAS 16 TO 32 FT. ALSO WITHIN 960 NM SW AND 300 NM NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 30 FT.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

68mb drop in 24 hours. And at that 48 hour mark it may still be deepening a bit more.

Villain

It's heading for Iceland now, much further North West on latest runs

maquiladora

Another view of the 0Z GFS. Huge windfield spanning hundreds of miles in the Atlantic. Pressure just within a few digits of the record for extratropical systems. If it turned out as the model shows there, you might not see another Atlantic storm like it for 20 years or more. Lucky for us that those hurricane force winds will be kept far out at sea. Just to make it clear, Ireland is not in any direct risk from that storm.

Looking forward to watching it on the sat. A pity there are no buoys in the area where it will be most intense, and I doubt there will be many ships there too, so the pressure will only be an estimate. Pity we don't have a hurricane hunter plane to fly to investigate. :P

eskimocat

maquiladora wrote: »

68mb drop in 24 hours. And at that 48 hour mark it may still be deepening a bit more.

Okay so what are we going to call it when the millibars drop that much in 24 hours.
'Bomb' seems inadequate to describe that baby!!

Any suggestions?

Tactical

eskimocat wrote: »

Okay so what are we going to call it when the millibars drop that much in 24 hours.
'Bomb' seems inadequate to describe that baby!!

Any suggestions?

That's easy...

MOAB

Failing that, a WMD :D:D

maquiladora

12Z NAE showing an area of low pressure prodicing gales along northwest coasts. Nothing too severe or significant for those parts though.



On a wider view, at the same time, you can see how that pales in comparison to the beast of a storm taking up a large area of the North Atlantic, with sustained winds of up 85+ mph there.



12Z GFS deepens the big low out in the Atlantic to 924mb. Same as the 06Z.

At the moment, that monster low is just a weak area of low pressure (1005mb) off the US east coast.

maquiladora

Monday & Tuesday looking stormy on the 12Z GFS. A double dose of two systems along a very strong jet.







Monday :





Tuesday is more severe :

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Monday & Tuesday looking stormy on the 12Z GFS. A double dose of two systems along a very strong jet.







Monday :

they usually go further north west though?

waterways

Maq, thanks for your ongoing posting of models. Are the images/links fixed? Would be interesting to see which model/run had the best idea how this/these extratropical cyclone(s) will develope and which track(s) will happen.

I had a look at some charts of historic extratropical storms today and I'm wondering how the models are poles apart although we are less than 3 days away before the Atlantic will see some movement, probably not only above it. I would be surprised if a weak low is deepening so fast and also weakening so quickly as GFS is forecasting it. Could the Sunday low feed a row of winter storms?

maquiladora

waterways wrote: »

Maq, thanks for your ongoing posting of models. Are the images/links fixed? Would be interesting to see which model/run had the best idea how this/these extratropical cyclone(s) will develope and which track(s) will happen.

I had a look at some charts of historic extratropical storms today and I'm wondering how the models are poles apart although we are less than 3 days away before the Atlantic will see some movement, probably not only above it. I would be surprised if a weak low is deepening so fast and also weakening so quickly as GFS is forecasting it. Could the Sunday low feed a row of winter storms?

Some of the images are fixed, others are dynamic, but you can always go back and check the model archives on those sites to compare with what really happened.

What the GFS is showing is 2 more lows exiting the US and riding the rails of the powerful jet which happens to be angled by then to put us close to their paths while the remains of that big low meanders to our northwest. It's 96 and 120 hours from now so expect changes, but that's just what the model shows for now.

Weathering

If this verifies the north west would see extreme winds
Malin head could clock 100mph possible
How bad do you reckon the wind gusts could be Maq going on current output?

JanuarySnowstor

The UKMO is a very stormy run, even more so than gfs
It brings that very deep storm much closer our shores too

waterways

munsterlegend wrote: »

they usually go further north west though?

Yes, but the GFS 12Z run has a high over Spain as the counterpart at 96T.

maquiladora

Weathering wrote: »

If this verifies the north west would see extreme winds
Malin head could clock 100mph possible
How bad do you reckon the wind gusts could be Maq going on current output?

12Z GFS on Monday would have widespread gusts of around 100 km/h, stronger around coastal areas, and in the west up to about 130 km/h. On Tuesday then add 10-15 km/h on to those figures.

I am not saying that is going to happen though. One or both of those potential events could get downgraded a lot or might not even happen - or it could be even more severe. Let's just see what happens, a lot can and probably will change.

Weathering

Thanks Maq,something to keep us entertained weather wise for a few days