Official Free Money Betting Thread 2012/2013 Mark II Redemption

pcworldisajoke

4PP wrote: »

Pardon my ignorance but what or who is dkr?

dropkickrugby.com- my find, i found it a few months back, and it has made all my decisions for me. I merely gaze at the tgv and smile and dont have to think anymore

theyve been quite god lately though, and made me a nice profit.

4PP

pcworldisajoke wrote: »

dropkickrugby.com- my find, i found it a few months back, and it has made all my decisions for me. I merely gaze at the tgv and smile and dont have to think anymore

theyve been quite god lately though, and made me a nice profit.

You should try tbp especially from September onwards

pcworldisajoke

4PP wrote: »

You should try tbp

ive had a look on there and it's ok alright, but there does seem to be a herd mentality at times. Tends to be a bit of pisstaking out of regulars though doesnt there? One guy on there, i dont know how he keeps coming back with the sarcy replies he always gets...site can be useful at times though, defo- that 4pp guy is of a similar mind to myself on the top14 games too

P_1

4PP wrote: »

You should try tbp especially from September onwards

tbp??

pcworldisajoke

actually, dkr said the same as you did on tbp about the bayonne game- 'stay away'. youre not the same people are you?!

4PP

pcworldisajoke wrote: »

ive had a look on there and it's ok alright, but there does seem to be a herd mentality at times. Tends to be a bit of pisstaking out of regulars though doesnt there? One guy on there, i dont know how he keeps coming back with the sarcy replies he always gets...site can be useful at times though, defo- that 4pp guy is of a similar mind to myself on the top14 games too

lol

'tis true that it is very far from the PC world of boreds :P

4PP

pcworldisajoke wrote: »

actually, dkr said the same as you did on tbp about the bayonne game- 'stay away'. youre not the same people are you?!

haha! no, not in the slightest :P I just live over here in frogland & the T14 is kinda my pet project betting wise
Thanks for the info though.

wp_rathead

wprathead wrote: »

sickened I didnt get on Toulouse To Win 1-12, fair play to those who went for it
stuck a fiver on lil accum for interest, I avoided the Stade game and Perpignan, comes to about 8/1

French Top 14 Bordeaux Begles v Grenoble
18-08-2012 17:30
Match Betting
Bordeaux Begles @ 1/5:rolleyes:
French Top 14 Biarritz v Stade Montois
18-08-2012 17:30
Will One Team Win Both Halves?
Yes @ 4/7:)
French Top 14 Agen v Racing Metro
18-08-2012 17:30
Win Margin
Agen to win by 1 - 12 points @ 13/8:rolleyes:
French Top 14 Bayonne v Clermont Auvergne
18-08-2012 18:00
Handicap Betting
Bayonne (+2.0) @ 10/11 :rolleyes:(at the mo not looking good)

Accumulator (4)
1 line at €5.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: €5.00
Potential returns: €47.25

ha, opening weekends eh?
:pac::pac:

P_1

pithater1 wrote: »

Currie Cup Sharks v Lions
18-08-2012 18:15
Alternative Handicap
Sharks (+4.0) @ 1/6 never in doubt
French Top 14 Bordeaux Begles v Grenoble
18-08-2012 17:30
Alternative Handicap
Bordeaux Begles (+4.0) @ 1/8 made me sweat though!!
French Top 14 Biarritz v Stade Montois
18-08-2012 17:30
Double Result
Biarritz - Biarritz @ 2/9 never in doubt
French Top 14 Agen v Racing Metro
18-08-2012 17:30
Alternative Handicap
Agen (+9.0) @ 1/7 slight sweat towards the end
The Rugby Championship South Africa v Argentina
18-08-2012 16:00
Match Betting
South Africa @ 1/9 never in doubt

safer lot for just over evens

The safe strategy pays off again, starting bets of 15 now up to 30, that'll do nicely

P_1

pithater1 wrote: »

Right so, handicap accumulator time:

I'll have:

Australia +6 - Can see this one being very close :mad:
Argentina +14 - South Africa will win but the weather and teams point out a kick fest :mad:
Castres +11 - Reckon Castres will pick up a LBP here
Agen -3 - Racing Metro currently in a shambles, Agen have a spectacular home record :mad:
Biarritz -15 - MDM promoted in a shock upset, Biarritz to push for a BP here
Bayonne +2 - Solid home record, can see them actually beating Clermont here :mad:
Stade Francais -7 - Montpellier missing a ton of players on International duty.
Grenoble +8 - Matches between the 2 tend to be close run affairs.
Toulon +2 - Reckon Toulon may well win this one.:D
Cheetahs +3 - Very solid home record and a great H2H against the Bulls in the CC.
Western Province -7 - Expect a backlash after last weeks shock home loss. :mad:
Sharks -9 - Lions in disarray, just kicked out of the Super 15 yesterday

7/12 in the end not good enough really.
5/7 from the Top14, 2/3 in the Currie Cup but 0/2 in the Rugby Championship.

duckysauce

Judgement Day wrote: »

Australia vs All Blacks. (Paddy Power) All Blacks -6 10/11 it was -5 this morning. Money for jam.

thanks for coaxing me on paddy is buying the jam for the next week

P_1

Right so Paddy have their caps up for the French matches and the matches in the Rugby Championship.

FRI - 24TH AUG 12

19:50 Top 14 Bordeaux-Begles vs Perpignan -3 cap for BB

SAT - 25TH AUG 12
08:35 Rugby Championship New Zealand vs Australia -15 cap for NZ
14:00 Top 14 Racing Metro Paris vs Toulon -4 cap for Racing
17:30 Top 14 Montpellier vs Clermont Auvergne -4 cap for MHRC
17:30 Top 14 Bayonne vs Stade Francais -6 cap for Bayonne
17:30 Top 14 Toulouse vs Mont de Marsan -26 cap for Toulouse
17:30 Top 14 Castres vs Grenoble -13 cap for Castres
19:40 Top 14 Agen vs Biarritz -3 cap for Agen
19:10 Rugby Championship League Argentina vs South Africa -9 cap for SA
13:00 Currie Cup Griquas vs Cheetahs
15:05 Currie Cup Lions vs Western Province
17:10 Currie Cup Blue Bulls vs Sharks

Match odds are also up for the ProD2.

thomond2006

11/1 for no tries in the Racing vs Toulon match this weekend, worth a sneaky bet?

wp_rathead

This is an interestin market
Connacht to Finish ahead of Zebre 2/9 (lumpable surely?)
Edinburgh to Finish ahead of Cardiff EVENS

profitius

wprathead wrote: »

This is an interestin market
Connacht to Finish ahead of Zebre 2/9 (lumpable surely?)
Edinburgh to Finish ahead of Cardiff EVENS

Both worth considering.

profitius

profitius wrote: »

Both worth considering.

are they though?

What price do you reckon they should be? I can't see any value there.

thomond2006

I posted this somewhere else on the Edinburgh bet:

Pros:
- Edinburgh's squad is much stronger than last year's, they will have more depth to fight on 2 fronts this season.
- It's unlikely Edinburgh will go on a long Heineken Cup run like last year, tough group including Munster, Racing Metro and Saracens.
- Cardiff's squad is weaker and smaller than last year's, in particular they've lost a lot of experience (Tito, Williams, Blair, Molitika, G Jenkins, Yapp, Parks et al)
- Cardiff have a history of underachieving in the Rabo while concentrating resources on Europe.
- Cardiff have an easier Heineken pool of Sale Sharks, Montpellier and Toulon. It's more likely they would qualify for the knockout stages than Edinburgh.
- Jamie Roberts is not expected back from injury until Dec/New Year.

Cons:
- Edinburgh haven't finished above Cardiff in the league since 08/09.
- Edinburgh's form in the league last season was terrible, they finished second bottom with 6 wins out of 22.
- It's likely Edinburgh will lose more players than Cardiff during international periods, when there will be Rabo fixtures played.
- Edinburgh host Cardiff on the w/d of 17 Feb, during the Six Nations. A moore likely "8 pointer" for Cardiff when Edinburgh will be weakened.

profitius

Deleted User wrote: »

are they though?

What price do you reckon they should be? I can't see any value there.

Edinburgh finished 18pts behind Cardiff last season but Edinburgh have really strengthened their squad while Cardiff have gotten rid of half of their squad. Its likely they'll also be out of Europe earlier this season.

I fancy Edinburgh to finish above Cardiff but it doesn't mean I'd place a bet on it. It is worth considering.

Connacht finished 15 points ahead of Aironi last season have have really strengthened their squad for this season. It would be a surprise if Zebre didn't finish rock bottom.

profitius

profitius wrote: »

Edinburgh finished 18pts behind Cardiff last season but Edinburgh have really strengthened their squad while Cardiff have gotten rid of half of their squad. Its likely they'll also be out of Europe earlier this season.

I fancy Edinburgh to finish above Cardiff but it doesn't mean I'd place a bet on it. It is worth considering.

Connacht finished 15 points ahead of Aironi last season have have really strengthened their squad for this season. It would be a surprise if Zebre didn't finish rock bottom.

But what price do you think the bet should be?

Obviously if it was 9/2 instead of 2/9 we'd see massive value. But I just don't think that there's far far far less than an 18/20% chance that Zebre manage to stump Connacht at some stage.

Likewise on the other bet, it's a coinflip, and priced as such. I wouldn't have strong feelings on either side of the bet. I don't see anything that would tip the balance of probabilities to either side, and you could easily make a case for opposing and not backing the bet too.

profitius

Deleted User wrote: »

But what price do you think the bet should be?

Obviously if it was 9/2 instead of 2/9 we'd see massive value. But I just don't think that there's far far far less than an 18/20% chance that Zebre manage to stump Connacht at some stage.

Likewise on the other bet, it's a coinflip, and priced as such. I wouldn't have strong feelings on either side of the bet. I don't see anything that would tip the balance of probabilities to either side, and you could easily make a case for opposing and not backing the bet too.

I think the price should be lower. It would have to be a disaster season for Connacht to finish lower than Zebre. To put it into context, Treviso are 1/10 to finish higher than Zebre.

thomond2006

Connacht bet is good too, definitely safer than the Edinburgh bet, but IMO overall Edinburgh looks better value to me.

profitius

profitius wrote: »

I think the price should be lower. It would have to be a disaster season for Connacht to finish lower than Zebre. To put it into context, Treviso are 1/10 to finish higher than Zebre.

sorry, but without a Connacht vs Treviso price that doesn't put anything into context whatsoever, and even with a Connacht v Treviso price that still doesn't clarify anything really as the bets aren't mutually exclusive.

I think I may be wrong about the price being off though. Perhaps something like 1/7 is a fairer price.

That being said, a season long, odds-on, ante post bet has got to be the most boring of "punts", and if it's a bet for investment, you'll need to tie up quite a lot of money over an entire year for it to be worthwhile.

(I'm saying this from the perspective of someone who pretty much hates any long term bets that aren't absolute ricks tbh)

profitius

Connacht finished higher than Treviso and have really added to their squad. I'd say theres very little between those 2 teams. Thats why I gave Treviso as an example.

I agree about the season long bet. The last season long bet I had were Leinster @18/1 for the HEC a few years back. 2/9 would tie up a lot of money.


Another interesting bet is Ulster @ evens to make the Rabo playoffs. Any opinions on that?

P_1

To put the Connacht bet into context you can get prices on the alternative handicaps for 2/9 for the majority of matches. Unless you have a couple of thousand to invest I see no value in tying up betting money for an entire season for those odds.

P_1

profitius wrote: »

Connacht finished higher than Treviso and have really added to their squad. I'd say theres very little between those 2 teams. Thats why I gave Treviso as an example.

I agree about the season long bet. The last season long bet I had were Leinster @18/1 for the HEC a few years back. 2/9 would tie up a lot of money.


Another interesting bet is Ulster @ evens to make the Rabo playoffs. Any opinions on that?

Really depends on a few factors if you ask me.

1, How far will Ulster go in Europe this year?
2, How the Welsh cope with the exodus (Looking at the Ospreys in particular here)
3, How many Ulster players get called up to be Kidneyfied.
4, How will the new gaffer get on early doors.
5, Jackson and O'Connor as outhalf, I'm not so sure letting iHumph go was the wisest move.

wp_rathead

Good debating lads, this is what I like to see
If I'd few grand to spare the Connacht bet wouldn't be a bad investment, but I don't bet anywhere near that big so not gonna bother
Top Irish Side:
Leinster 4/9
Munster 16/5
Ulster 5/1
Connacht 80/1

opinions?

profitius

Ulster look like they've a stronger squad this year. As well as the signings they've Henderson, Farrell, Luke Marshall and Payne who are all like new signings, although there will be other injuries. Overall I think they'll be more consistent, depending on how fast Paddy Jackson matures into the role.

wprathead wrote: »

Good debating lads, this is what I like to see
If I'd few grand to spare the Connacht bet wouldn't be a bad investment, but I don't bet anywhere near that big so not gonna bother
Top Irish Side:
Leinster 4/9
Munster 16/5
Ulster 5/1
Connacht 80/1

opinions?

Thats about right IMO.

I'm thinking of backing Munster for the grand final win. They're 5/1 now but I'd hold off for another month because their first 4 away games are against Edinburgh, Ulster, Ospreys and Leinster! Thats 4 of the top 5 or 6 teams. As well as that the team must get to grips with Penneys new style and that should take a while too. With the big squad, improved team and with an improved style of play Munster will be better than last season. So I think the price might go up a bit. One big win however...

I also think Ospreys won't finish in the top 3. Their cost cutting measures will take effect mid season and they'll see that the likes of Bowe and Williams can't be replaced that easily.

pcworldisajoke

The one thing about Cardiff is that they're losing fans, and they have no club morale whatsoever. It's only downhill for them I reckon

CatFromHue

pcworldisajoke wrote: »

The one thing about Cardiff is that they're losing fans, and they have no club morale whatsoever. It's only downhill for them I reckon

Yeah I think the Dragons could get one of the Welsh HEC spots next season.

thomond2006

pcworldisajoke wrote: »

The one thing about Cardiff is that they're losing fans, and they have no club morale whatsoever. It's only downhill for them I reckon

They've moved back to the Arms Park for this season though, after trialling it for a few games last year that got a great response. Their move to the CC Stadium was very damaging to the club and its local popularity.