Official Free Money Betting Thread 2012/2013 Mark II Redemption

PhatPiggins

profitius wrote: »

Thats the reason I'm thinking of taking the points in the castres match. I think you're right in holding off a bit until things settle down.

Works both ways, its often harder to beat the bookies when things settle down as they get much more accurate with their lines.

I find the most opportunity in uncertainty.

thomond2006

Argentina +14 looks decent if Hernandez keeps banging over those pesky dropgoals...

Then again the 2 Steyns will probably do the same thing...

thomond2006

profitius wrote: »

What do people think about Castres +11?

Probably more or less where it will finish, I'd wait on team news before making a decision.

Podge_irl

thomond2006 wrote: »

Argentina +14 looks decent if Hernandez keeps banging over those pesky dropgoals...

Then again the 2 Steyns will probably do the same thing...

I wouldn't touch the Argies away from home. Not sure they'll even be trying - probably saving themselves for the home games.

wp_rathead

profitius wrote: »

What do people think about Castres +11?

Use the bookies research against them and go for Toulouse To win by 1-12 points @ 13/8



I also see value in Bayonne +2 vs Clermont, but I don't know yet if I'l go for it
Bayonne had a home record last season of w8d3l2- Clermont away record w6d2l5
Games between them have always been close aswell which is why i wouldn't go for an outright win for Bayonne
18/02/12 TO1 Bayonne 22 - 22 Clermont
23/09/11 TO1 Clermont 19 - 13 Bayonne
9/02/11 TO1 Clermont 24 - 19 Bayonne
10/09/10 TO1 Bayonne 18 - 16 Clermont

Bayonne last season opened with a 18-13 home victory over Stade
Clermont last season opened with a 22-13 home victory over Lyon

Bayonne seem to have gone back to basics with the recruitment policy and gone for players who know the French league

rugbyrama.fr wrote:

Exit the arrivals of the stars southerners paid handsomely, but room for players who know the Top 14 (such as Arganese, Senekal or Ahotaeiloa)

4PP

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Works both ways, its often harder to beat the bookies when things settle down as they get much more accurate with their lines.

I find the most opportunity in uncertainty.

How much profit do you find?

4PP

wprathead wrote: »

Use the bookies research against them and go for Toulouse To win by 1-12 points @ 13/8



I also see value in Bayonne +2 vs Clermont, but I don't know yet if I'l go for it
Bayonne had a home record last season of w8d3l2- Clermont away record w6d2l5
Games between them have always been close aswell which is why i wouldn't go for an outright win for Bayonne
18/02/12 TO1 Bayonne 22 - 22 Clermont
23/09/11 TO1 Clermont 19 - 13 Bayonne
9/02/11 TO1 Clermont 24 - 19 Bayonne
10/09/10 TO1 Bayonne 18 - 16 Clermont

Bayonne last season opened with a 18-13 home victory over Stade
Clermont last season opened with a 22-13 home victory over Lyon

Bayonne seem to have gone back to basics with the recruitment policy and gone for players who know the French league

Whatever about Clermont, always there or thereabouts, Bayonne this season should on paper be a totally different outfit compared to the basket case it was last season.

As always in France home adv coupled with the extra prep time teams who didn't make the playoffs avail of puts a spanner in "normal" form. Some have already decided which games they will "throw" in pursuit of a place next season. Sounds strange maybe but the money is in the T14, not the ProD2.

PhatPiggins

4PP wrote: »

How much profit do you find?

Break even :pac:

But seriously think of the competitions over the last 4/5 years we've done best in. Its usually the one of competitions like the WC or the Lions tours when there are lots of unknowns. A lad who runs a branch of Stan James told me that statistically its the newly promoted teams in a league that the bookie get wrong the most for the first 6 weeks.

Just a thought!

pcworldisajoke

wprathead wrote: »

Use the bookies research against them and go for Toulouse To win by 1-12 points @ 13/8



I also see value in Bayonne +2 vs Clermont, but I don't know yet if I'l go for it
Bayonne had a home record last season of w8d3l2- Clermont away record w6d2l5
Games between them have always been close aswell which is why i wouldn't go for an outright win for Bayonne
18/02/12 TO1 Bayonne 22 - 22 Clermont
23/09/11 TO1 Clermont 19 - 13 Bayonne
9/02/11 TO1 Clermont 24 - 19 Bayonne
10/09/10 TO1 Bayonne 18 - 16 Clermont

Bayonne last season opened with a 18-13 home victory over Stade
Clermont last season opened with a 22-13 home victory over Lyon

Bayonne seem to have gone back to basics with the recruitment policy and gone for players who know the French league

interesting point on dropkickrugby about Bayonne and season starts being decent. Will probably follow their single 1-12 recommendations for the top 14 bets, but not the accumulators-they're probably right that its a weekend to go easy though on top 14. linky here

P_1

Right so, handicap accumulator time:

I'll have:

Australia +6 - Can see this one being very close
Argentina +14 - South Africa will win but the weather and teams point out a kick fest
Castres +11 - Reckon Castres will pick up a LBP here
Agen -3 - Racing Metro currently in a shambles, Agen have a spectacular home record
Biarritz -15 - MDM promoted in a shock upset, Biarritz to push for a BP here
Bayonne +2 - Solid home record, can see them actually beating Clermont here
Stade Francais -7 - Montpellier missing a ton of players on International duty.
Grenoble +8 - Matches between the 2 tend to be close run affairs.
Toulon +2 - Reckon Toulon may well win this one.
Cheetahs +3 - Very solid home record and a great H2H against the Bulls in the CC.
Western Province -7 - Expect a backlash after last weeks shock home loss.
Sharks -9 - Lions in disarray, just kicked out of the Super 15 yesterday.

Gracelessly Tom

pithater1 wrote: »

Right so, handicap accumulator time:

I'll have:

Australia +6 - Can see this one being very close
Argentina +14 - South Africa will win but the weather and teams point out a kick fest
Castres +11 - Reckon Castres will pick up a LBP here
Agen -3 - Racing Metro currently in a shambles, Agen have a spectacular home record
Biarritz -15 - MDM promoted in a shock upset, Biarritz to push for a BP here
Bayonne +2 - Solid home record, can see them actually beating Clermont here
Stade Francais -7 - Montpellier missing a ton of players on International duty.
Grenoble +8 - Matches between the 2 tend to be close run affairs.
Toulon +2 - Reckon Toulon may well win this one.
Cheetahs +3 - Very solid home record and a great H2H against the Bulls in the CC.
Western Province -7 - Expect a backlash after last weeks shock home loss.
Sharks -9 - Lions in disarray, just kicked out of the Super 15 yesterday.

I like the look of most of those selections. I've done the above but with Toulon and Bayonne to win (both 6/5) to bump up the "payout". €15.5k if it comes in.

Have also had a few combinations of those various selections although I did go with Toulouse against Castres, can't back against them!

P_1

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

I like the look of most of those selections. I've done the above but with Toulon and Bayonne to win (both 6/5) to bump up the "payout". €15.5k if it comes in.

Have also had a few combinations of those various selections although I did go with Toulouse against Castres, can't back against them!

Going to take a 12 fold, 12 11 folds and 55 10 folds here, have had 1 match **** me over far too many times last season.

Gracelessly Tom

pithater1 wrote: »

Going to take a 12 fold, 12 11 folds and 55 10 folds here, have had 1 match **** me over far too many times last season.

Let's hope it's the Toulouse game!:D

I know the feeling, have come so close on a fair few occasions to winning massively but always one upset or dodgy late try that screws up one of the H/Cs.

I think the Argie one is gonna be tight but can see SA up by 20 or so and the Argies grabbing a late try due to a) them never giving up and b) The SA players not really caring late on when the game is won.

pcworldisajoke

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Let's hope it's the Toulouse game!:D

I know the feeling, have come so close on a fair few occasions to winning massively but always one upset or dodgy late try that screws up one of the H/Cs.

I think the Argie one is gonna be tight but can see SA up by 20 or so and the Argies grabbing a late try due to a) them never giving up and b) The SA players not really caring late on when the game is won.

i reckon south africa are going to murder them. Dont forget this argentinian first side havent played since the world cup in an international- warms ups v stade francais wont do the job. They'll miss the rog-gouging doctor too.

jamiedav2011

pcworldisajoke wrote: »

i reckon south africa are going to murder them. Dont forget this argentinian first side havent played since the world cup in an international- warms ups v stade francais wont do the job. They'll miss the rog-gouging doctor too.

Eh what?!

P_1

Also gone for 2 'safer' doubles for tonight

Cheetahs +20 AH 1/10
Castres +29 AH 1/9

and

Cheetahs +8 HT AH 2/7
Castres +13 HT AH 2/9

P_1

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Eh what?!

Can we please keep the provincial crap away from this thread please? It would be a shame to have it locked.

It's all about making money, when a team can make me cash I will become a fan of theirs for the 80 minutes

CatFromHue

Does anyone think Australia will go out to +7? They're +6 now and were +5 originally. Argentina were +13 and are now +15!

P_1

CatFromHue wrote: »

Does anyone think Australia will go out to +7? They're +6 now and were +5 originally. Argentina were +13 and are now +15!

I'd say +6 is probably the limit, I'd consider even that fairly generous.

.ak

No off topic/player bashing/speculative crap here please. None of that relates to betting discussion.

And no back-seat moderating - if you have a problem with a post JUST report it.

Anymore of the above and infractions will follow.

PhatPiggins

pithater1 wrote: »

I'd say +6 is probably the limit, I'd consider even that fairly generous.

Australia can be a bit of a bastard to back/oppose. You look at their lineup and think "Deans has done a great job in polishing that turd". They can lose to Scotland, scrape past Wales and beat almost anyone when the mood takes them. I can't for the life of me how they're going to stay within 2 scores of NZ this time around though (history would suggest otherwise I know). Their super teams were largely awful to average, they're fielding simply the worst 10/12/13 combination of any Australian team I've ever seen and the Kiwi's are seriously motoring this season.

NZ -5 all day long

profitius

I'm backing Toulouse to win by 1 - 12 points @ 13/8.

P_1

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Australia can be a bit of a bastard to back/oppose. You look at their lineup and think "Deans has done a great job in polishing that turd". They can lose to Scotland, scrape past Wales and beat almost anyone when the mood takes them. I can't for the life of me how they're going to stay within 2 scores of NZ this time around though (history would suggest otherwise I know). Their super teams were largely awful to average, they're fielding simply the worst 10/12/13 combination of any Australian team I've ever seen and the Kiwi's are seriously motoring this season.

NZ -5 all day long

NZ Missing Conrad Smith though, can't see Nonu and SBW doing too well in defence. Depending on who the Aussies have kicking for them they should come out with a LBP at the very least, would not be surprised if they go on to win.

Will certainly be taking the Aussies at the 1/10 AH anyway for the larger stakes rolling accumulator.

PhatPiggins

pithater1 wrote: »

NZ Missing Conrad Smith though, can't see Nonu and SBW doing too well in defence. Depending on who the Aussies have kicking for them they should come out with a LBP at the very least, would not be surprised if they go on to win.

Will certainly be taking the Aussies at the 1/10 AH anyway for the larger stakes rolling accumulator.

Nonu/Williams versus Horne/Faingaa , 2 12's versus two planks who can tackle. I presume Barnes will kick for Australia.

P_1

pithater1 wrote: »

Also gone for 2 'safer' doubles for tonight

Cheetahs +20 AH 1/10
Castres +29 AH 1/9

and

Cheetahs +8 HT AH 2/7
Castres +13 HT AH 2/9

Well that shall do nicely, should have been a bit greedier

2/2 for the 12 fold, heres hoping for a good day tomorrow

profitius

pithater1 wrote: »

Well that shall do nicely, should have been a bit greedier

2/2 for the 12 fold, heres hoping for a good day tomorrow

Pithater, do you do those safer bets often and how often would they lose?

PhatPiggins

profitius wrote: »

Pithater, do you do those safer bets often and how often would they lose?

1/10 bets will lose around 1 in 9 times, 1/8 1 in 7 times and so on. emmet would probably give you more accurate figures.

P_1

profitius wrote: »

Pithater, do you do those safer bets often and how often would they lose?

First time doing them for 'real' money, had a trial run on paper for the Super 15 and 1 of the AH's lost, the HT AH's were about a 70% strike rate

P_1

PhatPiggins wrote: »

1/10 bets will lose around 1 in 9 times, 1/8 1 in 7 times and so on. emmet would probably give you more accurate figures.

Usually how it goes when you go in blind alright.

thomond2006

aaah want to make a bet but cannot choose... I think I'll be a neutral this week!