Official Free Money Betting Thread 2012/2013 Mark II Redemption

Prick!

Wooohiooo, just realised the Argue m match is on tonight woooooo

Prick!

Average points difference per game between Argentina and South Africa: -20.93

duckysauce

Prick! wrote: »

Average points difference per game between Argentina and South Africa: -20.93

so who or what are you betting on ?

Prick!

duckysauce wrote: »

so who or what are you betting on ?

I've gone for a small bet on -9 SA.

duckysauce

Prick! wrote: »

I've gone for a small bet on -9 SA.

good luck with it should be an interesting game.

Juwwi

Early odds from PP up for 2 weeks time.

NZ -28 10/11 v Argentina +28 10/11

Australia -5 10/11 v South Africa +5 10/11

profitius

Weekend betting up. No rabo teams yet which is disappointing. http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union

thomond2006

The Rabo bets are generally put up when teams are announced.

P_1

profitius wrote: »

Weekend betting up. No rabo teams yet which is disappointing. http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union

Usually the case, you normally don't see them on PP till the Friday afternoon

In case people weren't aware, this is the only site you should have bookmarked for finding match prices in the Rabo (none up yet!).

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/club-rugby/rabodirect-pro-12

If PP are at -12 on a 10/11 HC for Munster to beat Aironi, and you can get them at -11 at Evens with Stan James / Will Hill / b365 etc, you are literally burning money by sticking to the PP price.

Making a small % ROI is not easy, the bookies make money for a reason. And you need to maximise any and every edge you might possibly have in order to keep yourself in the green.

Never take a worse price than is available. It's far too easy to check and bet with another bookmaker. Also be aware of Enhanced specials and Money Back offers when considering bets, these can often increase your edge.

Also, on the above. For those season-bettors. Here's one to mull over.

There's a market for "regular season only".

If we take the top 3 favourites. Munster, Leinster and Ospreys. What price do you make it that one of these tops the league before the playoffs?

Because with a bit of effort, you can get approx 1/4 (1.23).

Take Leinster at 2.2 with PP, Ospreys at 5 with Will Hill and Munster at 6.5 with Stan James.

56% of stake on Leinster
25% of stake on Ospreys
19% of stake on Munster.

returns 123 for each 100 bet

thomond2006

Nice spot Emmet, a good bet if you're willing to tie up the money. I think 1/10 would be a more realistic odds of one of them finishing top. Edinburgh and Scarlets are the nearest challengers but they're at best a 3rd or 4th place finisher.

All 3 of those teams have tricky HEC pools, particularly Ospreys (Leicester, Toulouse, Treviso). I'd say it's likely at least one of them won't qualify for the knockout stages and be left with just the Rabo.

PhatPiggins

Deleted User wrote: »

Also, on the above. For those season-bettors. Here's one to mull over.

There's a market for "regular season only".

If we take the top 3 favourites. Munster, Leinster and Ospreys. What price do you make it that one of these tops the league before the playoffs?

Because with a bit of effort, you can get approx 1/4 (1.23).

Take Leinster at 2.2 with PP, Ospreys at 5 with Will Hill and Munster at 6.5 with Stan James.

56% of stake on Leinster
25% of stake on Ospreys
19% of stake on Munster.

returns 123 for each 100 bet

Emmet (love the bet), do you see these markets opening again after the weekends fixtures? I ask primarily because I think Munster and the O's will lose this weekend and their prices in the outright markets might drift somewhat

thomond2006

Rabo odds up on PP, nothing on odds checker. There's a glitch with the Connacht and Cardiff Blues, Connacht are +3 but at 10/111.

Edinburgh vs Munster is scr, a game to avoid considering both sides had a rotten pre-season outing last weekend. However Edinburgh are due back a few players this weekend like Visser, Rennie and Laidlaw who are in the squad, all excellent players. I'd say Edinburgh by 5 points but it's not something I'd put much money on.

Connacht +3 vs Cardiff Blues seems decent but it looks like Connacht will be missing some key players so again probably one to avoid.

Nothing really stands out as value here, thoughts?

meandmypalimmy

toulouse 1-12 winning margin is a good bet

P_1

Scarlets +3 v Leinster might be worth a Marcos Traterelli bet.

Leinster haven't won on their 1st match in about 5 years now and the 1st match always seems to be a trip to south Wales

PhatPiggins

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Emmet (love the bet), do you see these markets opening again after the weekends fixtures? I ask primarily because I think Munster and the O's will lose this weekend and their prices in the outright markets might drift somewhat

yup, they will open, but I don't think they'll drift at all.

GerM

pithater1 wrote: »

Scarlets +3 v Leinster might be worth a Marcos Traterelli bet.

Leinster haven't won on their 1st match in about 5 years now and the 1st match always seems to be a trip to south Wales

I'll be getting on that. Leinster have won once on opening day in the past 10 years. Scarlets had North and Scott Williams available to them last week in their friendly along with the likes of Shingler, Turnbull and McCusker up front all of who have been capped in the past 18 months. Leinster's midfield is likely to be Reid and Macken. I reckon Scarlets will be running down their throats all day and something has to give. Madigan doesn't have the territorial game to hold them off.

thomond2006

If Scarlets start their first team then it is an enticing bet. I'd say money will go on that rightaway once the teams are confirmed.

wp_rathead

Zebre are +9 away to Dragons
looking to get on the alternative handicap when available, can't see them getting hammered- beat both Aurillac and Northampton in preseason

profitius

Scarlets look good to win that bet. Played 11 homes games last season and won 9. Leinster are usually slow starters.

I fancy Edinburgh to beat Munster. Wouldn't have much on it because they've been very poor in preseason.

P_1

profitius wrote: »

Scarlets look good to win that bet. Played 11 homes games last season and won 9. Leinster are usually slow starters.

I fancy Edinburgh to beat Munster. Wouldn't have much on it because they've been very poor in preseason.

Feckers must have been reading, down to scr now

profitius

pithater1 wrote: »

Feckers must have been reading, down to scr now

Ulster down to -5pts now. They were -6 this morning. Were they -8pts yesterday?

I still fancy the Scarlets but €92 per €100 instead of €130 per €100 is a big step down.

irishbucsfan

I'm thinking of going with Ulster -5 and Zebre +9 tomorrow night. Waiting on more info to see if I'll extend it into the weekend a bit further.

pcworldisajoke

already backed glasgow myself on the handicap. Dropkickrugby recommending same. These opening weekends are a good time to make hay gents, bookies usually a fair bit off.

wp_rathead

Scarlets now -2!!

5 point swing- hopefully some of ye got on the +3 when was there (i didn't )

Juwwi

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I'm thinking of going with Ulster -5 and Zebre +9 tomorrow night. Waiting on more info to see if I'll extend it into the weekend a bit further.

Ladbrokes have Ulster -3 10/11 and Zebre +11 10/11

a big differance than PP

Judgement Day

I think I'll pop into Ladbrokes tomorrow and have a punt on Ulster -3 and I'll be going with the Edinburgh -2 h/c on PP.

GerM

Connacht, Ulster and Edinburgh treble (scratch) returns 6.24. Worth €20, I think given the teams that have been named thus far.

Ospreys and Edinburgh double for me at 2.99 with PP