Official Free Money Betting Thread 2012/2013 Mark II Redemption

P_1

Right so, next weekend we have the much welcome return of the Top 14, a new dawn in the Rugby Championship and the second round of the Currie Cup. Our fixtures are :

The Rugby Championship
Australia (7/4, +5) v New Zealand (4/9, -5), Saturday 18th August, Sydney, KO 10:05
South Africa (1/7, -13) v Argentina (4/1, +13), Saturday 18th August, Cape Town, KO 16:00

Le Top 14
Toulouse (1/10, -11) v Castres (11/2, +11), Friday, KO 20:00
Bayonne (evens, +1) v Clermont, (4/5, -1) Saturday, KO 14:00
Biarritz (1/14) v Mont de Marson (11/2), Saturday, KO 17:30
Agen (4/7, -3) v Racing Metro (11/8, +3), Saturday, KO 17:30
Stade Francais (1/4, -7) v Montpellier (11/4, +7) Saturday, KO 17:30
Bordeaux (1/5, -8) v Grenoble (7/2, +8), Saturday, KO 17:30
Perpignan (4/6, -2) v Toulon (6/5, +2), Saturday, KO 19:40.

Currie Cup
Cheetahs v Blue Bulls, Friday, KO 16:10
Sharks v Lions, Saturday KO 14:05
Griquas v Western Province, Saturday KO 16:10

A fair few stand out fixtures here. Here's to another season of healthy profit

CatFromHue

I'll be interested in what the handicaps are for Australia and Argentina.

thomond2006

New Zealand -10, South Africa -16 would be my prediction

P_1

thomond2006 wrote: »

New Zealand -10, South Africa -16 would be my prediction

I'd gobble up Argentina +16 anyway, meant to lash in Cape Town next week, can see a low scoring kick fest.

thomond2006

pithater1 wrote: »

I'd gobble up Argentina +16 anyway, meant to lash in Cape Town next week, can see a low scoring kick fest.

I'd expect SA to win but the Argies are seriously passionate when they get going (i.e. RWC QF) and I don't see them getting hammered. As you say, it probably will be a kick fest with Morne Steyn at 10.

CatFromHue

I'd take both Australia and Argentina at those handicaps.

The handicaps for the Top14 games are up on Paddy Power now.

P_1

Now here's hoping Paddy sees it that way

thomond2006

Toulon +2 and Clermont -1 stand out for me. USAP will be stronger this year but Toulon's depth now is crazy. Someone like Durand, Palisson or Basteraud mightn't even get into the 23.

Incidentally who is broadcasting Top14 this year in Ireland/UK? I don't see any coverage from Setanta or ESPN in their listings.

P_1

Montpellier +7 looks good to me. Should be well able to get a LBP away to Stade.

Not sure why they've given Biarritz a 22 point spread though, can't see Mont de Marsan getting whipped that badly first day out.

P_1

double post

CatFromHue

thomond2006 wrote: »

New Zealand -10, South Africa -16 would be my prediction

NZ are -5 but you were pretty close on SA as they're -13. On PP that is.

thomond2006

NZ -5 sounds good to me, I'd expect them to win by more than 7.

P_1

3 main picks for me would be New Zealand -5, Argentina +13 and Montpellier +7.

Clermont -1 and Toulon +2 look pretty tasty too.

Biarritz have lengthened from 1/50 to 1/14, handicap not up yet. Hopefully some folk got on Stade Montois at +22.

CatFromHue

thomond2006 wrote: »

NZ -5 sounds good to me, I'd expect them to win by more than 7.

Hmmm I'm not so sure I think this could be close enough.

Also since 2006 NZ have only won once by more than 5 points (in 2010 when they won by 21) in Australia.

P_1

Been doing a little research into this and one very interesting statistic has cropped up. In their past 5 meetings, Toulouse would have failed to meet an 11 point handicap in each and every one.

02/06/2012 24 15 Toulouse 9
10/03/2012 34 27 Toulouse 7
14/10/2011 3 24 Castres 21
02/01/2011 23 16 Toulouse 7
21/08/2010 16 22 Castres 6

Based on that I think I'll take Castres +11 and Toulouse 1-12 winning margin.

P_1

16/10/2011 6 20 New Zealand 14 NZ
27/08/2011 25 20 Australia 5 Aus
06/11/2011 14 30 New Zealand 16 NZ
30/10/2010 26 24 Australia 2 Neutral
11/11/2010 22 23 New Zealand 1 Aus
07/07/2010 10 20 New Zealand 10 NZ
31/10/2010 28 49 New Zealand 21 Aus

The last few results in Australia would suggest that the matches tend to be close enough (the 49-28 in Melbourne aside, however Australia did play a good chunk of that match with 14 men). Based on this sample, Australia should cover a +5 handicap. Up in the air in terms of who can win this one, perhaps this could be one of two defeats for the All Blacks.

Teams
Australia| | New Zealand
Kurtley Beale| 15| Israel Dagg
Adam Ashley-Cooper| 14| Cory Jane
Rob Horne| 13| Ma'a Nonu
Anthony Fainga'a| 12| Sonny Bill Williams
Digby Ioane| 11| Hosea Gear
Berrick Barnes| 10| Daniel Carter
Will Genia| 9| Aaron Smith
Scott Higginbotham| 8| Kieran Read
David Pocock (captain)| 7| Richie McCaw (capt)
Dave Dennis| 6| Liam Messam
Nathan Sharpe| 5| Samuel Whitelock
Sitaleki Timani| 4| Luke Romano
Sekope Kepu| 3| Owen Franks
Tatafu Polota Nau| 2| Keven Mealamu
Benn Robinson| 1| Tony Woodcock
| | |
Stephen Moore| 16| Andrew Hore
James Slipper| 17| Ben Franks
Rob Simmons| 18| Brodie Retallick
Radike Samo| 19| Victor Vito
Michael Hooper| 20| Piri Weepu
Nick Phipps| 21| Aaron Cruden
Drew Mitchell| 22| Ben Smith

I'll take Australia +5 in this one.

CatFromHue

I'll wait until the teams are announced but I think the Aussies are looking good and would have learned alot from their test series against Wales. The Kiwis would not have learned half as much against us.

P_1

Believe it or not, both teams have only met 13 times, with the Bokke running out winners in all 13 matches. They have only played twice since 2007, where South Africa would have covered a 13 point handicap on both occasions.


09/09/2008 63 9 South Africa 54 SA
14/10/2007 37 13 South Africa 24 France

Not really enough meetings between the two sides for the statistical approach to work here. My gut is telling me it should be a tight one but I think I'll wait for the teams to be announced and the weather forecast for Cape Town to be published.

Teams:

South Africa| | Argentina
| 15| Lucas González Amorosino
| 14| Gonzalo Camacho
| 13| Marcelo Bosch
| 12| Santiago Fernández
| 11| Horacio Agulla
| 10| Juan Martín Hernández
| 9| Nicolás Vergallo
| 8| Juan Martín Fernández Lobbe (c) 
| 7| Álvaro Galindo
| 6| Julio Farías Cabello
| 5| Patricio Albacete
| 4| Manuel Carizza
| 3| Juan Figallo
| 2| Eusebio Guiñazú
| 1| Rodrigo Roncero
| | |
| 16| Bruno Postiglioni
| 17| Marcos Ayerza
| 18| Juan Pablo Orlandi
| 19| Tomás Leonardi
| 20| Leonardo Senatore
| 21| Martín Landajo
| 22| Martín Rodríguez

P_1

PS if the stat based analysis/research is bugging anyone, let me know and I'll pack it in. It made for some very fertile ground for me last season though so I figured sharing is caring and all that

profitius

pithater1 wrote: »

PS if the stat based analysis/research is bugging anyone, let me know and I'll pack it in. It made for some very fertile ground for me last season though so I figured sharing is caring and all that

Keepit coming, much appreciated!

P_1

Now this is an interesting one. Clermont seem to have a bit of trouble with Bayonne, especially in the Basque Country. Last season was a draw and the season before they lost by 2. The handicap is a point in Clermont's favour but the stats don't seem to back this up.

18/02/2012 22 22 Draw 0 Bayonne
23/09/2011 13 19 Clermont 6 Clermont
19/02/2011 19 24 Clermont 5 Clermont
11/09/2010 18 16 Bayonne 2 Bayonne

Team selections and weather conditions will certainly influence any decision that is made on this one. Possibly a selection of either Clermont or Bayonne 1-12 winning margin may well be the way to go on this one depending on what team is picked for Clermont.

P_1

No handicap up as of yet (well it was up for a while 22 points in Biarritz's favour but was then taken down). I suspect the bookies are possibly as much in the dark about this one as ourselves. Based on the match odds I suspect we'll be looking at a handicap of between 15-20 points in Biarritz's favour.

Stade Montois won the playoffs to get back to the Top 14 following their bottom of the table finish in the 2008/2009 season. They were beaten fairly convincingly by Biarritz home and away that season.

28/03/2009 37 7 Biarritz 30 Biarritz
24/10/2008 33 6 Biarritz 27 Montois

Haven't heard too much of any high profile signings for Montois this season, it would be foolish to discount the first day syndrome but I would imagine Biarritz to run out easy winners here depending on team selection.

Depending on the handicap, I'll take Biarritz to beat it here, -20 should be the high water mark here.

P_1

Racing Metro seem to struggle away to Agen, generally accepting a LBP on their travels. 3 points is a dangerous handicap here so the handicap draw should be considered as a cover.

12/05/2012 25 22 Agen 3 Agen
23/12/2011 8 26 Racing Metro 18 Racing Metro
22/04/2011 34 51 Racing Metro 17 Racing Metro
04/11/2010 21 20 Agen 1 Agen

My initial reaction here would be to take Racing Metro at +3.

fwiw, basing stats on games played between A and B in 2009&2008 is blind enough. A lot of the time you'll note that both teams (today and the 2009 team) can have 12/13 different players, be in different periods in cycles of players, have used matches as Cup preparation etc.

You need to appropriately weight your statistical analysis in what is the most relevant of periods.

Those weights are always yours and yours alone to consider, I just would make the suggestion that recent form is far more important than games played between essentially completely different teams wearing the same jerseys. I'd also discuss sample size, but in sport, that's always tough to address without losing tonnes of valuable information in the aggregation.

P_1

Deleted User wrote: »

fwiw, basing stats on games played between A and B in 2009&2008 is blind enough. A lot of the time you'll note that both teams (today and the 2009 team) can have 12/13 different players, be in different periods in cycles of players, have used matches as Cup preparation etc.

You need to appropriately weight your statistical analysis in what is the most relevant of periods.

Those weights are always yours and yours alone to consider, I just would make the suggestion that recent form is far more important than games played between essentially completely different teams wearing the same jerseys. I'd also discuss sample size, but in sport, that's always tough to address without losing tonnes of valuable information in the aggregation.

I know exactly what you mean. To be fair the H2H between the two teams generally influences my decision by about 30% or so. My main considerations are each team's form the team selection, the weather forecast and the particular motivations of each team (do they need this win to get to the next round/avoid relegation etc).

Unfortunately that information only tends to become available about 48 hours before each match and we are a bit too early to bring form into the equation just yet (it tends to become a bit easier come October).

In terms of sample size, generally I would consider the matches between the two teams within the past 2 seasons to influence my decision based on the H2H. ( I agree that comparing matches from 2008/9 is somewhat blind, sadly we can only deal with the stats that we have).

I'm aiming to have each match post updated with team selections and forecasted weather (when this information comes available) along with each team's form (once we have a reasonable sample size).

Hope all that makes sense

P_1

Tough one to call this one without seeing the teams, last time out it took Montpellier a while to get going, but they still managed the draw. At the moment I'm liking the look of Montpellier +7 but will wait till the teams are announced.

H2H
27/01/2012 6 38 Montpellier 32 Montpellier
09/09/2011 19 19 Draw 0 Stade Francais
27/03/2011 23 29 Montpellier 6 Montpellier
01/10/2010 30 13 Stade Francais 17 Stade Francais

Judgement Day

Australia vs All Blacks. (Paddy Power) All Blacks -6 10/11 it was -5 this morning. Money for jam.

duckysauce

Judgement Day wrote: »

Australia vs All Blacks. (Paddy Power) All Blacks -6 10/11 it was -5 this morning. Money for jam.

-4 with stanjames extra sticky jam

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/rugby-championship/australia-v-new-zealand/handicaps

profitius

What do people think about Castres +11?

4PP

Top 14. While I can understand the eagerness to get back into the thick of things I have to say that I for one will be "watching" for at least the first two weeks.
Unless I see something very unusual ie "a garuanteed free money sure to win every time why didn't I put more on bet!!!".
The season is long, plenty of time to make money.

As with every new season, far too many changes/unknowns added to extremly hot weather completely unsuited to rugby imho.

Now, where's that accu I put together on home wins? :rolleyes:

profitius

4PP wrote: »

Top 14. While I can understand the eagerness to get back into the thick of things I have to say that I for one will be "watching" for at least the first two weeks.
Unless I see something very unusual ie "a garuanteed free money sure to win every time why didn't I put more on bet!!!".
The season is long, plenty of time to make money.

As with every new season, far too many changes/unknowns added to extremly hot weather completely unsuited to rugby imho.

Now, where's that accu I put together on home wins? :rolleyes:

Thats the reason I'm thinking of taking the points in the castres match. I think you're right in holding off a bit until things settle down.

PhatPiggins

profitius wrote: »

Thats the reason I'm thinking of taking the points in the castres match. I think you're right in holding off a bit until things settle down.

Works both ways, its often harder to beat the bookies when things settle down as they get much more accurate with their lines.

I find the most opportunity in uncertainty.

thomond2006

Argentina +14 looks decent if Hernandez keeps banging over those pesky dropgoals...

Then again the 2 Steyns will probably do the same thing...

thomond2006

profitius wrote: »

What do people think about Castres +11?

Probably more or less where it will finish, I'd wait on team news before making a decision.

Podge_irl

thomond2006 wrote: »

Argentina +14 looks decent if Hernandez keeps banging over those pesky dropgoals...

Then again the 2 Steyns will probably do the same thing...

I wouldn't touch the Argies away from home. Not sure they'll even be trying - probably saving themselves for the home games.

wp_rathead

profitius wrote: »

What do people think about Castres +11?

Use the bookies research against them and go for Toulouse To win by 1-12 points @ 13/8



I also see value in Bayonne +2 vs Clermont, but I don't know yet if I'l go for it
Bayonne had a home record last season of w8d3l2- Clermont away record w6d2l5
Games between them have always been close aswell which is why i wouldn't go for an outright win for Bayonne
18/02/12 TO1 Bayonne 22 - 22 Clermont
23/09/11 TO1 Clermont 19 - 13 Bayonne
9/02/11 TO1 Clermont 24 - 19 Bayonne
10/09/10 TO1 Bayonne 18 - 16 Clermont

Bayonne last season opened with a 18-13 home victory over Stade
Clermont last season opened with a 22-13 home victory over Lyon

Bayonne seem to have gone back to basics with the recruitment policy and gone for players who know the French league

rugbyrama.fr wrote:

Exit the arrivals of the stars southerners paid handsomely, but room for players who know the Top 14 (such as Arganese, Senekal or Ahotaeiloa)

4PP

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Works both ways, its often harder to beat the bookies when things settle down as they get much more accurate with their lines.

I find the most opportunity in uncertainty.

How much profit do you find?

4PP

wprathead wrote: »

Use the bookies research against them and go for Toulouse To win by 1-12 points @ 13/8



I also see value in Bayonne +2 vs Clermont, but I don't know yet if I'l go for it
Bayonne had a home record last season of w8d3l2- Clermont away record w6d2l5
Games between them have always been close aswell which is why i wouldn't go for an outright win for Bayonne
18/02/12 TO1 Bayonne 22 - 22 Clermont
23/09/11 TO1 Clermont 19 - 13 Bayonne
9/02/11 TO1 Clermont 24 - 19 Bayonne
10/09/10 TO1 Bayonne 18 - 16 Clermont

Bayonne last season opened with a 18-13 home victory over Stade
Clermont last season opened with a 22-13 home victory over Lyon

Bayonne seem to have gone back to basics with the recruitment policy and gone for players who know the French league

Whatever about Clermont, always there or thereabouts, Bayonne this season should on paper be a totally different outfit compared to the basket case it was last season.

As always in France home adv coupled with the extra prep time teams who didn't make the playoffs avail of puts a spanner in "normal" form. Some have already decided which games they will "throw" in pursuit of a place next season. Sounds strange maybe but the money is in the T14, not the ProD2.

PhatPiggins

4PP wrote: »

How much profit do you find?

Break even :pac:

But seriously think of the competitions over the last 4/5 years we've done best in. Its usually the one of competitions like the WC or the Lions tours when there are lots of unknowns. A lad who runs a branch of Stan James told me that statistically its the newly promoted teams in a league that the bookie get wrong the most for the first 6 weeks.

Just a thought!

pcworldisajoke

wprathead wrote: »

Use the bookies research against them and go for Toulouse To win by 1-12 points @ 13/8



I also see value in Bayonne +2 vs Clermont, but I don't know yet if I'l go for it
Bayonne had a home record last season of w8d3l2- Clermont away record w6d2l5
Games between them have always been close aswell which is why i wouldn't go for an outright win for Bayonne
18/02/12 TO1 Bayonne 22 - 22 Clermont
23/09/11 TO1 Clermont 19 - 13 Bayonne
9/02/11 TO1 Clermont 24 - 19 Bayonne
10/09/10 TO1 Bayonne 18 - 16 Clermont

Bayonne last season opened with a 18-13 home victory over Stade
Clermont last season opened with a 22-13 home victory over Lyon

Bayonne seem to have gone back to basics with the recruitment policy and gone for players who know the French league

interesting point on dropkickrugby about Bayonne and season starts being decent. Will probably follow their single 1-12 recommendations for the top 14 bets, but not the accumulators-they're probably right that its a weekend to go easy though on top 14. linky here

P_1

Right so, handicap accumulator time:

I'll have:

Australia +6 - Can see this one being very close
Argentina +14 - South Africa will win but the weather and teams point out a kick fest
Castres +11 - Reckon Castres will pick up a LBP here
Agen -3 - Racing Metro currently in a shambles, Agen have a spectacular home record
Biarritz -15 - MDM promoted in a shock upset, Biarritz to push for a BP here
Bayonne +2 - Solid home record, can see them actually beating Clermont here
Stade Francais -7 - Montpellier missing a ton of players on International duty.
Grenoble +8 - Matches between the 2 tend to be close run affairs.
Toulon +2 - Reckon Toulon may well win this one.
Cheetahs +3 - Very solid home record and a great H2H against the Bulls in the CC.
Western Province -7 - Expect a backlash after last weeks shock home loss.
Sharks -9 - Lions in disarray, just kicked out of the Super 15 yesterday.

Gracelessly Tom

pithater1 wrote: »

Right so, handicap accumulator time:

I'll have:

Australia +6 - Can see this one being very close
Argentina +14 - South Africa will win but the weather and teams point out a kick fest
Castres +11 - Reckon Castres will pick up a LBP here
Agen -3 - Racing Metro currently in a shambles, Agen have a spectacular home record
Biarritz -15 - MDM promoted in a shock upset, Biarritz to push for a BP here
Bayonne +2 - Solid home record, can see them actually beating Clermont here
Stade Francais -7 - Montpellier missing a ton of players on International duty.
Grenoble +8 - Matches between the 2 tend to be close run affairs.
Toulon +2 - Reckon Toulon may well win this one.
Cheetahs +3 - Very solid home record and a great H2H against the Bulls in the CC.
Western Province -7 - Expect a backlash after last weeks shock home loss.
Sharks -9 - Lions in disarray, just kicked out of the Super 15 yesterday.

I like the look of most of those selections. I've done the above but with Toulon and Bayonne to win (both 6/5) to bump up the "payout". €15.5k if it comes in.

Have also had a few combinations of those various selections although I did go with Toulouse against Castres, can't back against them!

P_1

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

I like the look of most of those selections. I've done the above but with Toulon and Bayonne to win (both 6/5) to bump up the "payout". €15.5k if it comes in.

Have also had a few combinations of those various selections although I did go with Toulouse against Castres, can't back against them!

Going to take a 12 fold, 12 11 folds and 55 10 folds here, have had 1 match **** me over far too many times last season.

Gracelessly Tom

pithater1 wrote: »

Going to take a 12 fold, 12 11 folds and 55 10 folds here, have had 1 match **** me over far too many times last season.

Let's hope it's the Toulouse game!:D

I know the feeling, have come so close on a fair few occasions to winning massively but always one upset or dodgy late try that screws up one of the H/Cs.

I think the Argie one is gonna be tight but can see SA up by 20 or so and the Argies grabbing a late try due to a) them never giving up and b) The SA players not really caring late on when the game is won.

pcworldisajoke

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Let's hope it's the Toulouse game!:D

I know the feeling, have come so close on a fair few occasions to winning massively but always one upset or dodgy late try that screws up one of the H/Cs.

I think the Argie one is gonna be tight but can see SA up by 20 or so and the Argies grabbing a late try due to a) them never giving up and b) The SA players not really caring late on when the game is won.

i reckon south africa are going to murder them. Dont forget this argentinian first side havent played since the world cup in an international- warms ups v stade francais wont do the job. They'll miss the rog-gouging doctor too.

jamiedav2011

pcworldisajoke wrote: »

i reckon south africa are going to murder them. Dont forget this argentinian first side havent played since the world cup in an international- warms ups v stade francais wont do the job. They'll miss the rog-gouging doctor too.

Eh what?!

P_1

Also gone for 2 'safer' doubles for tonight

Cheetahs +20 AH 1/10
Castres +29 AH 1/9

and

Cheetahs +8 HT AH 2/7
Castres +13 HT AH 2/9

P_1

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Eh what?!

Can we please keep the provincial crap away from this thread please? It would be a shame to have it locked.

It's all about making money, when a team can make me cash I will become a fan of theirs for the 80 minutes

CatFromHue

Does anyone think Australia will go out to +7? They're +6 now and were +5 originally. Argentina were +13 and are now +15!

P_1

CatFromHue wrote: »

Does anyone think Australia will go out to +7? They're +6 now and were +5 originally. Argentina were +13 and are now +15!

I'd say +6 is probably the limit, I'd consider even that fairly generous.

.ak

No off topic/player bashing/speculative crap here please. None of that relates to betting discussion.

And no back-seat moderating - if you have a problem with a post JUST report it.

Anymore of the above and infractions will follow.