Wednesday Storm (15/08):MOD WARNING #626 High Winds + Heavy Rain/Flooding Likely

mickger844posts

Normal Atlantic storms rarely pack much punch in the South East but i feel from the South its a different ball game. Will be very interesting to see what the max gust will be at my station in Waterford City. Interesting watching the storm develop rapidly already.

Nabber

This systems predicted path is unusual or is it just me?
Moves north along the West coast, then heads west into the Atlantic, stalls then dissipates. Is this normal because it is coming from a South West position?

snaps

Is it just the south this storm is affecting? We up in mayo have nothing to worry about?

jimmynokia

Sun splitting the trees in DUBLIN 22.
calm before the storm..

maquiladora

mickger844posts wrote: »

Normal Atlantic storms rarely pack much punch in the South East but i feel from the South its a different ball game. Will be very interesting to see what the max gust will be at my station in Waterford City. Interesting watching the storm develop rapidly already.

I'll be in KK tomorrow, probably won't be that bad here, but I'd say you'll be setting an all time record on that weather station if MT's forecast is right. 80mph winds is no joke for the south coast, big difference to the west/northwest where regular storms clear weak limbs/trees. Hopefully it won't be that bad.

M.T. Cranium

Have edited more info into recent forecast update.

Current position appears to be 44N 16W about 995 mbs.

Somewhat less severe forecast for Mayo-Galway dependent on storm track away from land after passing Kerry around 1500h. Would not want to say no severe gusts there, but if damaging gusts develop in west and perhaps east Munster, the damage potential further north might be more limited and isolated to most exposed locations where things are built to withstand stronger winds anyway.

My current estimates of peak gust speeds during this event would include:

SHERKIN, ROCHE PT ... 75 kts
CORK A ... 65 kts
WATERFORD, SHANNON, LIMERICK, VALENTIA ... 55 kts
MACE HEAD, BELMULLET ... 53 kts
DUBLIN, CASEMENT, WEXFORD ... 50 kts
INLAND such as GURTEEN, OAK PARK, MULLINGAR, CLAREMORRIS and counties around those stations, generally peaking 45 kts but could see local wind streaks higher than that if tornadic cells develop on rotating occlusion, this will be more localized and could miss those recording stations but hit somewhere else.

All of this is rather approximate, I don't entirely trust the model solutions of the final deepening stage or track because we are dealing with a very rapid phasing of the upper low with the surface low, you could speculate that some model solutions look a bit tame and others have localized features that are likely to be evened out by the rapidly expanding field of 40-50 knot winds late tonight. I am expecting a low in the mid-970s eventually with quite a regular isobaric field around it, and the occlusion will be strongly "bent back" across the inland south a bit ahead of the low itself, to lie roughly in an arc across Shannon and Waterford mid-day and then Clare to Dublin later in the afternoon. Any triple point that develops (crest of warm sector) could be a focal point for northeast-moving tornadic cells.

Winds in the Galway area are likely to increase rather slowly all day and peak gusts will depend on how this occlusion holds up in the evening. If it fragments and becomes diffuse then peak gusts could hold below 50 kts there.

Would strongly advise residents in coastal and exposed locations between mouth of Shannon and Wexford to prepare for wind damage potential by removing exposed items wherever possible, wave action could overtop some coastal installations near high tides. East coast will be somewhat more marginal as to damage potential, will depend on local topographic forcing to bring to that intensity. West coast more of a wait and see situation, could end up sub-warning levels but would not count on it.

Limerick-Clare region residents should note that inland location may not mean much reduction in peak wind speeds as this winds up mid-day and dynamics would favour long inland fetch from south to southeast, if you're exposed to that direction, assume damage potential. Lough Derg could see gusts to 55 or 60 knots especially during afternoon.

eigrod

Eileen Dunne on the main part of the news just brought news of the storm warning there.

MrFrisp

And the RTE website has also updated....

Hurricane Charlie-like weather forecast tomorrow

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0814/weather.html












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Chicken1

Never saw so much panic over what is just a normal storm, wait until tomorrow I guarantee you it wont be as bad, its all hype. We have had worse storms than this.

Sponge Bob

MrFrisp wrote: »

And the RTE website has also updated....

Hurricane Charlie-like weather forecast tomorrow

Why are they on about bloody Charley again. ???

The 1 hour record AND the 6 hour record in Casement was not set by Charley but by a low pressure system originating in the Bay of Biscay as it happens in late October 2011 AND Moving North over Ireland. However that 2011 system had much less rotational energy and the wet stuff was stuck to its eastern flank.

JJJJNR

BBQ, Kids playing hop scotch, Sun, Heat... what could possibly go wrong.

positron

Hmm, so should I avoid my usual motorbike commute up and down M1 tomorrow?

Monday morning was way too scary for my liking - cross wind on M1 is like mother nature playing a cruel joke on you - once or twice cross winds pushed me from all the way to the left on the normal lane to almost into the over taking lane - gust by gust, increasing intensity by a notch every gust and you have no control but to helplessly watch the bike drifting closer and closer to the overtaking lane traffic. Proper brown trouser moment.

So would it be too bad tomorrow then?

Jesus Wept

Chicken1 wrote: »

Never saw so much panic over what is just a normal storm, wait until tomorrow I guarantee you it wont be as bad, its all hype. We have had worse storms than this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqs1YXfdtGE

:pac:

Not

JJJJNR wrote: »

BBQ, Kids playing hop scotch, Sun, Heat... what could possibly go wrong.

BBQ playing hopscotch... ?

Edit : reminds me of a garden shed that went hopscotch across the neighbours gardens in a storm years ago !

Sir_Name

Based in kinsale. Weather was lovely when I came home from work and the rain has rolled in. Curious to see what it'll be like in the morning.

sirpsycho

Quick vid showing the developing wet monster...

http://youtu.be/spPTfRYT95E

(view in 1080p full screen)

Some storm over Eastern Europe. Savage

kkontour

This also quite good

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

pauldry

rainfall beginning to look impressive on satelite.

we had 13mm of really heavy rain in 40mins today.

some shower.

then it was 21c and sunny for the rest of the day.

rainfall for August only 44mm so far in Sligo.

There appears to be pulses of rain in this thing not one prolonged band.

Could be a few thunderstorms and mini tornadoes embedded

howlinwolf

walked the dogs earlier up in oak park in carlow,fantastic summers evenings with the sun shineing through the trees......dont think it will look so nice tomorrow night;)

kingshankly

No point in panicking yet the Donegal postman hasn't confirmed it yet

fatherbuzcagney

kingshankly wrote: »

No point in panicking yet the Donegal postman hasn't confirmed it yet

i can confirm that he will have a wet sack tomorrow if that's any help,

eskimocat

Here is a nice picture of storm Xenja from Met Eireann...

http://www.met.ie/sat/euro-ir.asp

ninebeanrows

Would not like to be out to sea down south!

Avox

Lashing down and windy in Co. Waterford now.. was clear up until about 20 mins ago!

maquiladora

18Z NAE: 972mb just off the southwest coast in 21 hours. The FAX chart for noon tomorrow is the exact same. GFS is a bit less intense and track is further west.

JONJO THE MISER

Havent posted on this forum since the great snow of 2 years ago.
I think this is being exaggerated, come tomorrow i bet there will Just be a small bit of wind and a little rain.

Rhys Essien

Hang on tight people!

http://www.sat24.com/?culture=en

run_Forrest_run

had some rain in Cork about 20 mins ago but gone eerily calm since then. Let's hope KC's won't be flooded tomorrow morning:eek:

sunbabe08

the wind is steadily picking up here in youghal

CourierCollie

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Havent posted on this forum since the great snow of 2 years ago.
I think this is being exaggerated, come tomorrow i bet there will Just be a small bit of wind and a little rain.

Even if it's torrential, at least it will be warm. Golden shower, with gales:)