Wednesday Storm (15/08):MOD WARNING #626 High Winds + Heavy Rain/Flooding Likely

leahyl

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Strikes me that the track of the centre is forecast a bit further east ( over Connacht rather than off Connacht and that the Irish Sea quadrant will get more of a battering than the south coast will.

So perhaps Cork escaping the worst of the storm?:( It's hard to say I know. I hope we get a bit of a battering - love a good storm;)

Suprised that Met Eireann aren't building it up more.

Sponge Bob

leahyl wrote: »

So perhaps Cork escaping the worst of the storm?:( It's hard to say I know. I hope we get a bit of a battering - love a good storm;)

What I am saying is I don't think it will blow straight into Cork Harbour for 12 hours solid but it might into Dublin Bay. It will blow hard but not from the south and for an extended period...which would be the flood risk.

Iancar29

Sponge Bob wrote: »

What I am saying is I don't think it will blow straight into Cork Harbour for 12 hours solid but it might into Dublin Bay. It will blow hard but not from the south and for an extended period...which would be the flood risk.

Heres your flood risk!

As Su mentioned yesterday, heaviest rain on windward slopes

hawkwing

leahyl wrote: »

So perhaps Cork escaping the worst of the storm?:( It's hard to say I know. I hope we get a bit of a battering - love a good storm;)

Suprised that Met Eireann aren't building it up more.

Met.ie onboard now :

Issued at 14 August 2012 - 11:20
Weather Warning
A combination of high winds, heavy rainfall, abnormally low pressure and high tides will cause dangerous conditions in south Munster and east Leinster during Wednesday 15th August.
Gale to strong gale force easterly winds, later veering southeasterly to southerly, will occur. Frequent spells of rain will result in accumulations of 30 to 50 mm generally, with higher totals possible in mountainous areas. The will be a high risk of coastal and river flooding.


Valid 0000 15/8/12 to 0000 16/8/12

Redsunset

Well after that warning of high risk from Met Éireann this thread deserves a level 3 High Risk tag.

Min

They also issued this warning.

Southeast to east gales or strong gales or strong gales will develop early Wednesday morning on all coasts of Ireland and on the Irish Sea; winds later veering southeast to south will reach storm force on southern and western coasts.
Issued at 12:00 on 14-Aug-2012

davidsr20

Redsunset wrote: »

Well after that warning of high risk from Met Éireann this thread deserves a level 3 High Risk tag.

What's is a level 3 ? Is the higher the level the less savere?

maquiladora

Big difference between the 06Z HIRLAM and the 0Z run just 6 hours previous...

0Z :



06Z :



And how that difference looks in terms of wind...

0Z :



06Z :

Redsunset

Level 3 means a high risk of thread title and in this case it's damaging wind' heavy rain and flooding.
Level 2 is moderate risk
Level 1 slight risk

eskimocat

davidsr20 wrote: »

What's is a level 3 ? Is the higher the level the less savere?

Higher means more extreme, in other words, prepare for some rough (and in some areas dangerous) weather.

It just gives people a chance to change plans if they were thinking of climbing a mountain or going camping etc.. Also gives people with a flood risk a chance to try and run prevention measures against flood damage like putting down sandbags, clearing drains etc... perhaps in more extreme cases moving valuables from downstairs to upstairs where flooding has been a problem before in the areas mentioned.

Storm 10

Met Eireann warning

Correction :- Southeast to east gales or strong gales will develop early Wednesday morning on all coasts of Ireland and on the Irish Sea; winds later veering southeast to south will reach storm force on southern and western coasts.
Issued at 12:00 on 14-Aug-2012

If the winds are going to reach storm 10 in Southern and Western counties does that not mean that the low will be passing closer to us than thought.

force eleven

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Fastnet_race

33 years to the day.

Sponge Bob

I mentioned earlier in this thread that I didn't like the look of friday either. UKMO has issued the following. Looks like a Cork-Wexford issue if indeed it happens.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

Issued at: 1147 on Tue 14 Aug 2012

Valid from: 0000 on Fri 17 Aug 2012

Valid to: 2359 on Fri 17 Aug 2012

Heavy rain, accompanied by strong winds, is expected to spread northwards during Friday, to affect parts of southwest England and Wales. The public should be aware of the possibility of surface water flooding and minor disruption to travel.

on the Main event, Weds, this is the latest UKMO guidance. Watch for an upgrade from yellow later on this afternoon.

Issued at: 1145 on Tue 14 Aug 2012

Valid from: 0600 on Wed 15 Aug 2012

Valid to: 2359 on Wed 15 Aug 2012

Heavy rain, accompanied by strong winds, is expected to spread north during Wednesday morning and afternoon, to affect parts of western England, much of Wales and Northern Ireland. The heaviest rain is likely to clear from the south by evening, but the strong winds will peak a little later.

Min

force eleven wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Fastnet_race

33 years to the day.

Yeah was thinking of that, didn't realise it was the anniversary, that was some storm.

Iancar29

force eleven wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Fastnet_race

33 years to the day.

6 days to the day 26 years ago...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Charley_(1986)

Strangegravy

maquiladora wrote: »

Big difference between the 06Z HIRLAM and the 0Z run just 6 hours previous...

At the moment the system seems to be getting more intense with each run... is this kind of thing normal or is this system a bit unique in its nature?

Redsunset

An idea of rainfall totals including Friday measured in inches.

South east coast showing 2 inches.

maquiladora

Strangegravy wrote: »

maquiladora wrote: »

Big difference between the 06Z HIRLAM and the 0Z run just 6 hours previous...

At the moment the system seems to be getting more intense with each run... is this kind of thing normal or is this system a bit unique in its nature?

We'll see what the 12z runs are like. Could still see things go the other way.

Sponge Bob

Redsunset wrote: »

An idea of rainfall totals including Friday measured in inches. South east coast showing 2 inches.

I think all bets are off when a conveyor belt of warm moisture originates in the Biscay area. Recent Dublin floods have originated there...not out on the Atlantic like winter cyclones and tail ends of hurricanes.

Remember the floods of August 1997....I certainly remember the 9 o clock forecast on the preceeding Thursday or Friday which promised scorchio weather nationwide.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/1997/0806/97080600012.html

Anyway, I was in Westport and Met É were spot on as I baked in 20c+ temperatures all weekend. I got an awful shock when I saw the news on Monday night and that Clonmel was a swamp by that stage. There was no warning about this ....certainly as late as the thursday and possibly even on friday.

Meanwhile the Beastly Biscay did the dirty on the South where 200mm of rain fell in 4 days over the Galtees and Knockmealdowns. See.

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/aug97.pdf

Ever since 1997 I have had a healthy fear of anything warm and wet that comes at us from the South East and so I think 50mm in 3 days is an underestimate. Make that 100mm for luck on the windward slopes in Wicklow Tipp and Waterford.

H2UMrsRobinson

I usually check in here before going to work and then again at lunch time. What a difference 4 hrs can make! Although I'm also prepared for the usual last minute downgrades, yous have all got me just a little excited. Riveting stuff, even if the storm doesn't pull off as expected. Don't want anyone hurt though, what time is the peak expected ? Just got one of them plastic greenhouse thingies, will have to weigh it down or dismantle the thing altogether.

Irishgoatman

Just found this thread for the first time because I was/am thinking of taking the campervan over to Cavan for some music.

Now I'm not so sure.

Very interesting and informative thread, I'll be following you in future.
A special thank you to Panda Moanium, it was your post on campervans that brought me here.

Thanks guys.

Redsunset

Yes Sponge Bob, I agree that all bets are off. I too think it will be more and and those charts only give an idea of what's coming. If we get in that moist feed then 4 inches is not impossible. Very very interesting time ahead. The accumulation on already saturated ground could be very serious.

gothwalk

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

Just got one of them plastic greenhouse thingies, will have to weigh it down or dismantle the thing altogether.

Take it down, or at least take out enough panels that the wind can go through it. We put one earlier in the summer on the allotment, and found it about 15 metres over in an empty lot a few days later - and it wasn't even that windy. If it's one of the ones that's a frame with a plastic shroud over it, as it were, just take the plastic off and it'll probably be ok. Otherwise, well, someone two counties over will have a new greenhouse.

maquiladora

Meteoalarm has a bit more detail than the Met Eireann warning.

Leinster & Munster:

"Winds of mean speed 45 to 65 km/h with gusts up to 110 km/h"

Sponge Bob

maquiladora wrote: »

Meteoalarm has a bit more detail than the Met Eireann warning.

Funny that, It was Met E who sent Meteoalarm the information because as far as I know Metoalarm is only an aggregator from National Mets in Europe.

maquiladora

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Lookin good. Was think of goin to Tramore for the craic for this storm

Don't forget the bucket and spade.

Should be some nice looking waves down there in the morning/early afternoon.

maquiladora

Sponge Bob wrote: »

maquiladora wrote: »

Meteoalarm has a bit more detail than the Met Eireann warning.

Funny that, It was Met E who sent Meteoalarm the information because as far as I know Metoalarm is only an aggregator from National Mets in Europe.

They sent the wind details to Meteoalarm but left them out of the warning on met.ie . Maybe because they arent sure of max winds yet.

Deep Easterly

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I think 50mm in 3 days is an underestimate. Make that 100mm for luck on the windward slopes in Wicklow Tipp and Waterford.

Maybe locally I agree but I think 50mm is a fairly reasonable forecast on a more widespread scale. Tomorrow's front looks like it will pass through relatively quickly (rather than just stalling over the country such as back in '97) although as you say, those trailing fronts may perhaps pose some risk towards the end of the week. So defo something to keep an eye on.

Mr Benevolent

Sure it'll be grand. It's never as bad as it's made to be. Still, might be time to buy cans of beans and something inflatable to float on.

I am to travel to Kilkenny from Dublin tomorrow, worth going ? ?